Austria-Hungary in an Early Entente Victory

[Cymry-Korean]

How do you all think Austria-Hungary wpuld develop after having been defeated alongside Germany in a shorter WW1, probably ending sometime on early 1916.

While I don't think Austria-Hungary would collapse in this scenario, I do expect that they would lose Trentino and Trieste to Italy, Transylvania to Romania, Bosnia to Serbia, and a portion of Galicia to Russia.

How would such a defeat impact the domestic and foreign policies of the country? Would Emperor Otto be able to hold the country together? He seems like he would have been a competent and rather charismatic leader from what I know of his time in the United States as Otto the Austrian.

 

[TRH]

Stripped of their minority voters, there would be no hope left for the Liberal Party in Hungarian parliamentary elections, so I imagine the union between Austria and Hungary would die rather quickly. The question is whether Russia and/or Romania would care enough to invade Hungary in an attempt to stop that.

 

[Cymry-Korean]

Stripped of their minority voters, there would be no hope left for the Liberal Party in Hungarian parliamentary elections, so I imagine the union between Austria and Hungary would die rather quickly. The question is whether Russia and/or Romania would care enough to invade Hungary in an attempt to stop that.

Why would the Liberal Party's failure in Hungary lead to a breakdown of the state? Was there a major Hungarian nationalist party calling for independence? With a defeat in 1916 I'm not certain that the Hungarians would lose all that much.

 

[TRH]

Why would the Liberal Party's failure in Hungary lead to a breakdown of the state? Was there a major Hungarian nationalist party calling for independence? With a defeat in 1916 I'm not certain that the Hungarians would lose all that much.

Yeah, they were called the Party of Independence and '48, to give you an idea of how loud the secessionists were. And they actually won a majority in the 1905 and 1906 elections, but lost the 1910 elections when the Liberal Party rebranded as the National Party of Work. Losing the war and losing a huge chunk of their own base won't do the NPW any favors, is the concern.

 

[Cymry-Korean]

Yeah, they were called the Party of Independence and '48, to give you an idea of how loud the secessionists were. And they actually won a majority in the 1905 and 1906 elections, but lost the 1910 elections when the Liberal Party rebranded as the National Party of Work. Losing the war and losing a huge chunk of their own base won't do the NPW any favors, is the concern.

Ahh! I'll definitely keep that in mind. Thank you very much for the information!

 

[Aghasverov]

Stripped of their minority voters, there would be no hope left for the Liberal Party in Hungarian parliamentary elections, so I imagine the union between Austria and Hungary would die rather quickly. The question is whether Russia and/or Romania would care enough to invade Hungary in an attempt to stop that.

Well... the thing is, that of the potential losses outlined by the OP, none of them would directly affect elections to the Hungarian Diet - Galicia was a province of Cisleithania, Bosnia was a condominium of both Austria and Hungary, with its own government, and by "Venetia" I'm assuming @Cymry-Korean means Trieste and Istria?
As early as 1916, I doubt the Russians would try to swallow up all of Galicia, probably just the area east of the San... the Bosnian Muslims, who had become quite pro-Austrian, might riot at the thought of being absorbed into Serbia....

 

[Cymry-Korean]

Well... the thing is, that of the potential losses outlined by the OP, none of them would directly affect elections to the Hungarian Diet - Galicia was a province of Cisleithania, Bosnia was a condominium of both Austria and Hungary, with its own government, and by "Venetia" I'm assuming @Cymry-Korean means Trieste and Istria?
As early as 1916, I doubt the Russians would try to swallow up all of Galicia, probably just the area east of the San... the Bosnian Muslims, who had become quite pro-Austrian, might riot at the thought of being absorbed into Serbia....

Oh I'm not entirely set on those losses, I've just seen past discussions here and those were the areas that were brought up most commonly. Yeah, Trentino and Trieste, I don't know why, but I thought Venice was still Austrian at this time.

 

[TRH]

Well... the thing is, that of the potential losses outlined by the OP, none of them would directly affect elections to the Hungarian Diet - Galicia was a province of Cisleithania, Bosnia was a condominium of both Austria and Hungary, with its own government, and by "Venetia" I'm assuming @Cymry-Korean means Trieste and Istria?
As early as 1916, I doubt the Russians would try to swallow up all of Galicia, probably just the area east of the San... the Bosnian Muslims, who had become quite pro-Austrian, might riot at the thought of being absorbed into Serbia....

True, though I rather doubt the Romanians would ever pass up the easy opportunity to get Transylvania, so I'd be inclined to write that off as well.

 

[Cymry-Korean]

True, though I rather doubt the Romanians would ever pass up the easy opportunity to get Transylvania, so I'd be inclined to write that off as well.

From memory, the Romanian Queen was the one really pushing for intervention, so I suppose that it would happen, perhaps even earlier than in OTL.

 

[TRH]

From memory, the Romanian Queen was the one really pushing for intervention, so I suppose that it would happen, perhaps even earlier than in OTL.

The ruling National Liberal Party had been pro-French for a long time, and controlled over 2/3rds of the Assembly and Senate after the 1914 elections, so it was definitely more than just the Queen. And if the Entente is doing so much better as to make a 1916 victory feasible, there would definitely be the fear of missing out on gains to give them even more urgency to get involved.

 

[Aghasverov]

True, though I rather doubt the Romanians would ever pass up the easy opportunity to get Transylvania, so I'd be inclined to write that off as well.

I was wondering about Romania too... I guess it may partly depend upon when in 1916...
Still, that early, the Hungarians would still have a lot of fight left in 'em, if Romania did try for an opportunistic territorial grab by entering the Entente at the last minute...

 

[TRH]

I was wondering about Romania too... I guess it may partly depend upon when in 1916...
Still, that early, the Hungarians would still have a lot of fight left in 'em, if Romania did try for an opportunistic territorial grab by entering the Entente at the last minute...

The other other thing here is that even a 1916 victory would still come after a lot of bloodshed, so I imagine we would still see a Carthaginian peace. Possibly even more so, with Russia still at the table and the Entente being better able to enforce harsh terms. Throw in the lack of Clemenceau sidelining Poincaré as well. The former didn't quite deserve his reputation as revanche incarnate, but the latter sure did.

 

[Cymry-Korean]

I was wondering about Romania too... I guess it may partly depend upon when in 1916...
Still, that early, the Hungarians would still have a lot of fight left in 'em, if Romania did try for an opportunistic territorial grab by entering the Entente at the last minute...

Romania's army didn't exactly coat itself in glory OTL, but I don't know what kind of forces the Hungarians would have to divert if the Empire is performing worse against Russia and or Italy.

 

[Cymry-Korean]

The other other thing here is that even a 1916 victory would still come after a lot of bloodshed, so I imagine we would still see a Carthaginian peace. Possibly even more so, with Russia still at the table and the Entente being better able to enforce harsh terms. Throw in the lack of Clemenceau sidelining Poincaré as well. The former didn't quite deserve his reputation as revanche incarnate, but the latter sure did.

Was Poincaré the one who wanted to seize the Rhineland as either an independent state or a French province?

 

[TRH]

I don't doubt that the Romanians would probably still humiliate themselves even if the Central Powers were otherwise collapsing. But still, they went down like punks IOTL and still got Transylvania in the end. My guess is that even if their invasion fails, their involvement would still be enough for the Entente to award Transylvania to them at the peace table.

Was Poincaré the one who wanted to seize the Rhineland as either an independent state or a French province?

Yep, he wanted a 30 year occupation at least.

 

[Aghasverov]

Was Poincaré the one who wanted to seize the Rhineland as either an independent state or a French province?

Wouldn't surprise me... it was Poincare who guaranteed full French support to the Russians in case the July Crisis turned into a greater conflict... a (ahem) "blank cheque", if you will

 

[Cymry-Korean]

Wouldn't surprise me... it was Poincare who guaranteed full French support to the Russians in case the July Crisis turned into a greater conflict... a (ahem) "blank cheque", if you will

Indeed. Everyone seemed to think that this time they had to support their allies to the hilt. Russia to Serbia, Germany to Austria, and France to Russia. I personally think that Russia should have left the Serbs out to dry. I honestly don't think Russian influence in the Balkans was worth a general war, regardless of how long it was originally supposed to be.

 

[Aghasverov]

Indeed. Everyone seemed to think that this time they had to support their allies to the hilt. Russia to Serbia, Germany to Austria, and France to Russia. I personally think that Russia should have left the Serbs out to dry. I honestly don't think Russian influence in the Balkans was worth a general war, regardless of how long it was originally supposed to be.

Neither did Witte... things could've turned out quite differently if Nicky II had listened to his father's advice and always trusted in Witte's counsel...

 

[Sarthak]

Losing Transylvania would even better for the Hungarian Pro-Austrians. The Hungarians in Transylvania were the biggest supporters of the Party of Independence and 48 and would also remove the powerbase of the regionalist and autonomist Romanian Nationalist Party. The only other real threats for the Empire at that point politically would be the Slovak National Party, National Independence Farmer Party of 48, Independence for 48 and Justh Party of 48 and Independence, which would control 13% of the Transleithanian Legislature. Losing transylvania would be disastrous for the Party of Independence and 48. More than half of their votes in 1910 came from the Transylvanian Hungarians and nearly 70% of their financial backers were the Transylvanian Magnates. The loss of which would basically spell the end of the Party of Independence and 48 politically really.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Romania only joined the war in August of 1916, so an early Entente victory probably means Hungary doesn't lose territory.

Serbia also was fully occupied by 1916. I'm skeptical that they are able to gain territory.

An early Entente victory means Russia putting less into beating Austria and more into pushing into Germany early on. In that circumstance, Austria might lose territory to Russia and Italy but come out okay elsewhere.