Having read most of this long and fascinating thread, I am interested in a more disciplined discussion of how things might've panned out in a scenario where German leadership, either due to the Emperor or some other agent(s) decides to strike Russia first.
To be clear: the premise is that the decision is made, and orders are given.
In the OTL, Germany declared war on Russia and France rather early. No doubt these promiscous declarations of war helped to underscore the international impression of German leadership as hyper-aggressive and blood-thirsty.
In the absence of an offensive westwards, no declaration of war against France is necessary. Let us assume the Germany does declare war on Russia as a reaction to Russia's mobilization.
The Russian warplan was flexible up till the 9th day after the general mobilization order was given. Given the the flurry of activity in the direction of East Prussia, Russian intelligence would surmise their main effort would be in the East, in which case they opt go with Plan 19+G, weakening their Galician front.
The Austro-Hungarian drive into Poland was originally predicated on the knowledge that Germany would focus on France initially. Aware that the Germans are massing the East, would this encourage the Austrians to more closely coordinate with the Germans? They do speak the same language, after all. And in so doing, would the knowledge that additional German forces were deploying encourage the Austrians to leave the 2nd Army and all of its 8 divisions to face the Serbs (perhaps significantly changing the outcome of the fighting there during December 1914)?
In any case, the strong German deployment to the East definitely weakens Ivanov's front. Given the actual historical performance of Russian forces, any German offensive will cause massive casualties and reveal the Russian army's many weaknesses. It is conceivable that the Germans and Austrians agree on a combined offensive launched mid-August with the goal of rendezvouzing near Brest-Litovsk.
In this scenario, the Central Powers probably make excellent headway before bogging down during September. Savage Russian counteroffensives using Russian reserves prevent the pincers joining, but Stavka determines holding the salient is too costly and conduct an orderly strategic withdrawl throughout the winter of 1914-1915. Over a million Russians are killed or wounded, and over 80,000 are taken prisoner by the Central Powers.
In Serbia, with the full benefit of 3 armies, the Austrians hold on to Belgrade during the winter of 1914-1915, but likewise here both sides are exhausted.
In the West, massive and successive French offensives make little headway, but as with Soviets on the Eastern Front during WW2, even flinging masses of infantry against well-prepared positions will eventually take its toll, drawing away German reserves, which prevents them from fully exploiting victories in the East.
The last straw for the British comes when the Ottomans launch an unprovoked attack on the Russians in the Black Sea on 29 October 1914. The raid leads to a Russian ultimatum demanding the Ottomans expel the German military mission there. The Ottomans refuse, and war is declared. Shortly thereafter, all trade through the Dardanelles is suspended. Ships that attempt to force the straits are fired upon. The British respond with an ultimatum to the Ottomans, which the Ottomans are unable to comply with. Great Britain subsequently declares war on the Ottoman Empire in early November 1914. A second ultimatum is sent to Berlin, whereby the British demand the evacuation of the German military mission. The Germans refuse, whereby Britain declares war and a total blockade. Three weeks later, Japan also declares war on Germany.
With the slaughter underway in Alsace-Lorraine, the British goverment, decides to use the BEF to seize the Dardanelles first, with the Gallipoli debacle starring British Tommys rather than ANZAC troops.
In OTL, Italy signed the Treaty of London after the fall of Przemysl, expecting Austria-Hungary's imminent collapse. In this scenario, the Russians have been driven from Poland, and the Serbs are on their last feet. British entry into the war guarantees their neutrality, however.
During the spring of 1915, Central Power diplomacy wins over Bulgaria, spelling the end of Serbia, while the Central Powers mass forces for a major drive into Russia. The Russian army is in a perilous state due to the exertions of the first six months of the war, and STAVKA determines that the Russian army will withdraw in the face of any major Central Power offensive, all the while official state propaganda invokes the "spirit of 1812".
Summary of crucial points thus far:
So my basic assumption is that a focus in the East enables the Austrians to divert more forces (at least four additional divisions and countless additional replacements), to fight the Serbs. This prevents the Serbs from humiliating the Austrians to same extent as OTL, and to a Serb defeat some six months earlier than OTL. At the same time, the focus on Russian prevents Russian victory in the Battle of Galicia, deterring Italy's entry in the war. Britain still joins the war, but throw their small army against the Turks at Gallipoli. A massive expansion of the British army begins, but these troops will not be ready for action before late-1915, at the earliest. The French spend the first six months of the war hammering the Germans, inflicting and sustaining horrible losses, however, by spring of 1915, the French army has lost nearly a million men killed, wounded and missing, and requires a respite.
During the summer of 1915, a major Central Power offensive against Russia is carried out, and after pressure and threats of invasion by the Central Powers, Rumania agrees to join the Central Powers in exchange for Bessarabia. The Russians offer spirited resistance in selected sectors, but serious material shortages compels them to conduct strategic withdrawals. To the extent possible, military aid begins to arrive via non-blockaded ports. The German advance is steady and relentless, reaching the Dniepr river by August (and Lake Pskov in the Baltics). German forces establish bridgeheads and continue their advance until September 1915, when a major Anglo-French offensive through neutral Belgium is launched. Kitcheners New Army, which had been assembling forces in France and Britain under the guise of rotating these into the front line in Lorraine, instead carries out a lightning advance into Belgium along the pourous Belgian frontier. British merchantmen secretely carrying Royal Marines sieze ports in Antwerp, Ostend and elsewhere. Only the fortresses at Namur and Liege avoid surprise capture, insteading delaying the French advance as substantial French forces are required to reduce them. Nonetheless, the scale of the flanking maneuver draws substantial German forces away from other fronts, including reserves from the Alsace-Lorraine front. At precisely this moment, the French initiate an independent gigantic offensive along this front.
Most of Belgium is overrun, but the Germans successfully manage to stabilize the front after ferocious counter-attacks. Total German losses are over 650,000, vs. 420,000 French and nearly 200,000 British.
Starved of reinforcements in the East, the Central Powers are vulnerable, and precisely at this moment the Great Russian Counteroffensive is launched, primarily directed against the weaker Austrians in the South. The offensive shatters the Austrian army and the threat of a being flanked compels the Germans back across the Dniepr. As winter sets in, the Germans attempt to shore up their line by eliminating Russian bridgeheads in the Austrian sector. Shortages prevent the Russians from fully exploiting gains but repulsing the invasion is a major boost to Russian morale even as the casualties reach astronomical proportions.
To be clear: the premise is that the decision is made, and orders are given.
In the OTL, Germany declared war on Russia and France rather early. No doubt these promiscous declarations of war helped to underscore the international impression of German leadership as hyper-aggressive and blood-thirsty.
In the absence of an offensive westwards, no declaration of war against France is necessary. Let us assume the Germany does declare war on Russia as a reaction to Russia's mobilization.
The Russian warplan was flexible up till the 9th day after the general mobilization order was given. Given the the flurry of activity in the direction of East Prussia, Russian intelligence would surmise their main effort would be in the East, in which case they opt go with Plan 19+G, weakening their Galician front.
The Austro-Hungarian drive into Poland was originally predicated on the knowledge that Germany would focus on France initially. Aware that the Germans are massing the East, would this encourage the Austrians to more closely coordinate with the Germans? They do speak the same language, after all. And in so doing, would the knowledge that additional German forces were deploying encourage the Austrians to leave the 2nd Army and all of its 8 divisions to face the Serbs (perhaps significantly changing the outcome of the fighting there during December 1914)?
In any case, the strong German deployment to the East definitely weakens Ivanov's front. Given the actual historical performance of Russian forces, any German offensive will cause massive casualties and reveal the Russian army's many weaknesses. It is conceivable that the Germans and Austrians agree on a combined offensive launched mid-August with the goal of rendezvouzing near Brest-Litovsk.
In this scenario, the Central Powers probably make excellent headway before bogging down during September. Savage Russian counteroffensives using Russian reserves prevent the pincers joining, but Stavka determines holding the salient is too costly and conduct an orderly strategic withdrawl throughout the winter of 1914-1915. Over a million Russians are killed or wounded, and over 80,000 are taken prisoner by the Central Powers.
In Serbia, with the full benefit of 3 armies, the Austrians hold on to Belgrade during the winter of 1914-1915, but likewise here both sides are exhausted.
In the West, massive and successive French offensives make little headway, but as with Soviets on the Eastern Front during WW2, even flinging masses of infantry against well-prepared positions will eventually take its toll, drawing away German reserves, which prevents them from fully exploiting victories in the East.
The last straw for the British comes when the Ottomans launch an unprovoked attack on the Russians in the Black Sea on 29 October 1914. The raid leads to a Russian ultimatum demanding the Ottomans expel the German military mission there. The Ottomans refuse, and war is declared. Shortly thereafter, all trade through the Dardanelles is suspended. Ships that attempt to force the straits are fired upon. The British respond with an ultimatum to the Ottomans, which the Ottomans are unable to comply with. Great Britain subsequently declares war on the Ottoman Empire in early November 1914. A second ultimatum is sent to Berlin, whereby the British demand the evacuation of the German military mission. The Germans refuse, whereby Britain declares war and a total blockade. Three weeks later, Japan also declares war on Germany.
With the slaughter underway in Alsace-Lorraine, the British goverment, decides to use the BEF to seize the Dardanelles first, with the Gallipoli debacle starring British Tommys rather than ANZAC troops.
In OTL, Italy signed the Treaty of London after the fall of Przemysl, expecting Austria-Hungary's imminent collapse. In this scenario, the Russians have been driven from Poland, and the Serbs are on their last feet. British entry into the war guarantees their neutrality, however.
During the spring of 1915, Central Power diplomacy wins over Bulgaria, spelling the end of Serbia, while the Central Powers mass forces for a major drive into Russia. The Russian army is in a perilous state due to the exertions of the first six months of the war, and STAVKA determines that the Russian army will withdraw in the face of any major Central Power offensive, all the while official state propaganda invokes the "spirit of 1812".
Summary of crucial points thus far:
So my basic assumption is that a focus in the East enables the Austrians to divert more forces (at least four additional divisions and countless additional replacements), to fight the Serbs. This prevents the Serbs from humiliating the Austrians to same extent as OTL, and to a Serb defeat some six months earlier than OTL. At the same time, the focus on Russian prevents Russian victory in the Battle of Galicia, deterring Italy's entry in the war. Britain still joins the war, but throw their small army against the Turks at Gallipoli. A massive expansion of the British army begins, but these troops will not be ready for action before late-1915, at the earliest. The French spend the first six months of the war hammering the Germans, inflicting and sustaining horrible losses, however, by spring of 1915, the French army has lost nearly a million men killed, wounded and missing, and requires a respite.
During the summer of 1915, a major Central Power offensive against Russia is carried out, and after pressure and threats of invasion by the Central Powers, Rumania agrees to join the Central Powers in exchange for Bessarabia. The Russians offer spirited resistance in selected sectors, but serious material shortages compels them to conduct strategic withdrawals. To the extent possible, military aid begins to arrive via non-blockaded ports. The German advance is steady and relentless, reaching the Dniepr river by August (and Lake Pskov in the Baltics). German forces establish bridgeheads and continue their advance until September 1915, when a major Anglo-French offensive through neutral Belgium is launched. Kitcheners New Army, which had been assembling forces in France and Britain under the guise of rotating these into the front line in Lorraine, instead carries out a lightning advance into Belgium along the pourous Belgian frontier. British merchantmen secretely carrying Royal Marines sieze ports in Antwerp, Ostend and elsewhere. Only the fortresses at Namur and Liege avoid surprise capture, insteading delaying the French advance as substantial French forces are required to reduce them. Nonetheless, the scale of the flanking maneuver draws substantial German forces away from other fronts, including reserves from the Alsace-Lorraine front. At precisely this moment, the French initiate an independent gigantic offensive along this front.
Most of Belgium is overrun, but the Germans successfully manage to stabilize the front after ferocious counter-attacks. Total German losses are over 650,000, vs. 420,000 French and nearly 200,000 British.
Starved of reinforcements in the East, the Central Powers are vulnerable, and precisely at this moment the Great Russian Counteroffensive is launched, primarily directed against the weaker Austrians in the South. The offensive shatters the Austrian army and the threat of a being flanked compels the Germans back across the Dniepr. As winter sets in, the Germans attempt to shore up their line by eliminating Russian bridgeheads in the Austrian sector. Shortages prevent the Russians from fully exploiting gains but repulsing the invasion is a major boost to Russian morale even as the casualties reach astronomical proportions.
