I have an incredible feeling that a Russian noble family might actually take the reins of Constantinople one day. Dunno why but it’s there.
An Age of Miracles III: The Romans Endure
- Thread starter Basileus444
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Cryostorm
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Plot twist, the Laskarids come back to be emperors of Rome without a civil war.
75%+ boost compared to the Roman army at Nineveh. So, nearly twice as many cannons despite having half the infantry.
Don’t worry. One of my goals is to be firmer at sticking to my original goals and parameters.
It’s been a while since I last read them, but Geoffrey Parker’s Global Crisis and Sam White’s The Climate of Rebellion in the Early Modern Ottoman Empire both place a lot of blame on the Ottoman demographic decline on the Little Ice Age. Parker, in his global survey, argues that the eastern Mediterranean was the worst hit area. Also, in addition to being hit harder, they argue (at least White does; not sure about Parker) that the Ottomans then recovered more slowly compared to their contemporaries.
Roman Expansion: Expansion in Africa does nothing to protect the Roman heartland against the Latins. The expansionist drive in war hawk circles is really based on fear of the Latins, with the desire for more resources and bigger buffer states to guard against the Latins. North Africa doesn’t help there, and might even make things worse since it would draw off resources from the real goal. Every tourma in Tunisia is one that is really badly placed to be moved to Thrace if need be.
The attack on Mesopotamia was done with the following goals. One, a cheap and quick victory to bolster the Tourmarches and secure their position. Africa could’ve done this, unless it dissolves into a drawn-out guerrilla mess, which is what happened the last time the Romans invaded North Africa in force. Second, to tidy up the eastern front and preventing a two-front war while the Romans deal with the Latins, unlike the War of the Roman Succession where the Romans had to fight Blucher/Theodor and Ibrahim simultaneously, which caused tons of problems. There’s no way invading Africa helps here.
Restoring the Empire of Justinian is a pipe dream. It’s the kind of effort that, while designed to guard against a Latin coalition, would end up provoking that very coalition. Latin Europe is immensely stronger now than it was 1100 years ago. Look at the Italian Wars of OTL, or how Louis XIV’s later reign after all his early aggressions went. Rhomania does have limits; if it weren’t for their neuroses vis-à-vis Latin Europe, the good money would be to focus on Indonesia. If they were truly pragmatic, they’d realize their situation is actually well-placed; defeating Theodor’s invasion proved that. Things could definitely be improved, but going on a berserker rage won’t help.
The Romans have strong historical reasons to be suspicious and wary of the Latins. But the Romans have overcompensated. They’ve taken all the Latin aggressions and coalitions and lumped them all together into one clash-of-civilizations mash, ignoring the different members and contexts and motivations. Theodor didn’t invade because he was a Latin or because he hated and wanted to destroy the Romans; he invaded because he considered that he had a rightful dynastic claim. He would’ve done the same to Spain or Poland if he had such a claim and thought he could do it.
The Romans are fearful, and while they have reasons for that, their paranoia is now causing them to act in ways that increase Latin hostility to them, which the Romans see and that causes them to be more paranoid and fearful. It’s a vicious cycle, and one I look forward to breaking and dispelling by the end of the 1600s.
Roman-Ottoman Wars: This is the last Roman-Persian War, although there will be, unless plans change, one near-miss war scare a generation or so down the road. (That this will be the last war though is as firmly set as any of my TL plans can be.) The two Empires have spent most of the century so far beating the crap out of each other, and frankly neither side has much to show for it. It’ll be a great benefit to both when they stop this and focus on other things.
Superpowers and great powers: I’m envisaging something like the following political setup for great powers in the industrial age (with antecedents from preindustrial times).
Firstly, there are the Tier I powers. These could be styled as superpowers. They are in a weight class of their own, but the gap between them and Tier IIs is smaller than the OTL gap between USA/USSR and everyone else that people think of when the term ‘superpower’ is used. Think something more like Tier Is are 1913 Germany while Tier IIs are 1913 France and that would be closer.
These would be Russia, China [1], and the United States [2].
Tier IIs would be, in no particular order: HRE, France, Rhomania (West), Rhomania (East), Japan, Vijayanagar, Brazil, and the Ottomans.
There might also be a Tier III with the likes of Ethiopia, Spain, the Sikhs, and Bengal. They’re like early 20th century Italy, possibly great powers, but borderline.
If Rhomania (West) and Rhomania (East) were united, they could be a Tier I, but while they’re allied (like Bourbon family compact? Or classical western and eastern Roman Empires?) they’re not centralized and focused like the Tier I states.
[1] While China will get some rude shocks when industrialization starts and Middle Kingdom arrogant complacency stops working, the goal is to avoid anything even remotely close to the OTL Century of Humiliation.
[2] A balkanized North America that looks like Europe would be interested, but that is a story which I think should be told in detail and this TL focus is on the Bosphorus, not the Hudson or Potomac. I also like the idea of having a powerful US, but viewed from the outside, from Constantinople. I am envisioning a United States with many similarities to OTL, but that faces a much more powerful Mexico. The duel with Mexico over dominance over North Terranova makes this US more aggressive and jingoistic than OTL, which eventually becomes a problem for the Old World as well as the New.
Roman Success: The Romans being like OTL modern France does count as quite a big success in my book, especially since I plan to pair it with a high quality-of-life for the average Roman. Given the multipolar world described above, I think this leaves plenty of room for intrigues and political shenanigans. Having Rhomania being on a US-level at the top of the pile I feel would be more boring.
Kaisar title: It has become the title for the heir, the equivalent of Crown Prince. A co-emperor is when an additional person has the title of Basileus, not just the senior Emperor. Regarding historical titling and precedence, that’s a mistake on my part. But I’ve added a bit in Not the End where the Romans reorder the titling, putting Kaisar back to being second in the hierarchy, during the reign of Ioannes IV Laskaris. It’s a deliberate reference to the Tetrarchy. As Rhomania recovered from the Crisis of the 3rd Century, so Rhomania was recovering from the Crisis of the 13th Century.
On Patreon, the latest section of Not the End: The Empire Under the Laskarid Dynasty has been posted for Megas Kyr patrons. After a brief but busy reign, Manuel II Laskaris dies. His heir is supposed to be his only child, his daughter Anna, but she has to make a mad dash for Constantinople to secure her claim.
Thank you for your support.
Looking forward to it. It reminds me in some ways of a what-if scenario in Strategy and Tactics magazine back in the early 1980s about a game proposal. It imagined a much more difficult and harder-fought Mexican war in the 1840s that led to the conquest of most of Mexico and a more militarized US. That led to more national unity and a buyout of the southern slave holders and an even more unified US. The game was to start in 1898 with the US and its massive military poised to invade Spain after the conquest of Cuba and the Philippines.
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Ok a more jingoistic *US viewed from Constantinople would be *fascinating* and now I can't wait to see this.
Agreed, especially since Rhomania is probably the power least likely to clash with the US simply because of its position. It doesn't have an Atlantic coast and minimal possessions in the Western Hemisphere.
For that matter, it might be interesting to see how this "US" (in quotes because while it might be like the US I would be surprised if it gets called that - maybe alt-US?) views Rhomania, since the "US" is unlikely to have the history and rivalry the traditional Latin powers have had with Rhomania. Perhaps a vignette with a new "US" ambassador arriving in Constantinople to take up their duties?
I know you're planning for a "Eastern" Roman Empire to the Eastern Roman Empire in the east Indies which will probably have a similar relationship to the original like the wre and ere did post 395, very aligned and supportive of each other when necessary and convenient but ultimately more interested in themselves if push came to shove. However I do wonder how you plan to keep them aligned to each other bar cultural ties? Maybe both have the same emperor as head of state but there being local autonomous governments on ground like the British Empire and its dominions and more apt to the Romans Diocletian and his tetrachy with him as senior emperor. Or Valentinian or Theodosius. There's more than enough precedent in Roman history
Cryostorm
Monthly Donor
True, but Rhomania is going to have closer ties to Mexico from their history, and have a slightly difficult history with the US* due to being opposed to the Triunes during the colonial period. Not even getting into if this US gets a Pacific coast and ambitions.
Yeah, I'm surprised it took me so long to find the climatic explanations for Ottoman decline, but they sound pretty compelling. Now, on the other hand, Rhomania has some distinct advantages coming out of the Little Ice age compared to the Ottomans. Among them being western style financial institutions, a population that is, in the mid 17th century, more literate than that of the OTL Ottoman Empire in 1914, a higher degree of urbanization, and a relatively uniform and largely state administered taxation system rather than the tax-farming based gordian knot of pre Tanzimat Ottoman taxation.
Coming out of the little ice age, the Ottoman Empire was land rich, but labor scarce and capital poor. TTL Rhomania I'd expect will be land rich, labor scarce, and capital rich, which gives them a lot more to work with.
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Cryostorm
Monthly Donor
They probably also won't be dealing with constant wars with Russia and civil wars/ethnic rebellions from the Balkans to Egypt. That certainly did not help the demographic situation, and the extra wealth will help ameliorate some of the food issues.
I doubt any alt-US would not have access to the Pacific. What could well happen is a more miltarized alt-US with a relationship to Mexico that resembles Rhomania and Persia. That way you have a more militarized US which is not as dominant navally because it actually has a land border it has to worry about.
The thought of an Eastern (Eastern) Roman Empire in South East Asia is incredibly interesting.
You’d have to combine almost all of OTL ASEAN to reach Tier 2 so imagine a TTL Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesian Empire ruled from Singapore. With control of the most critical shopping lanes in the world (plus Roman TTL Suez) when cooperating they definitely could be a match for the Tiers 1s.
You’d have to combine almost all of OTL ASEAN to reach Tier 2 so imagine a TTL Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesian Empire ruled from Singapore. With control of the most critical shopping lanes in the world (plus Roman TTL Suez) when cooperating they definitely could be a match for the Tiers 1s.
They'd also have far more reason and leway to be a top tier Naval Power than the homeland does as well. The Eastern Romans being better on the sea than the Western Romans, tale as old as time
An Eastern Eastern Roman Empire sounds cool, but if I were an imperial administrator or statesman I would be working around the clock to keep RITE as subservient as possible and NOT an independent power, even nominally.
Already the state has to deal with Sicily and Egypt not being totally in line with the Roman state, having their eastern possessions granted the ability to go AWOL if they wanted too sounds awful. You would effectively have the Greek core of the Empire pressed with keeping RITE, Egypt, AND Sicily in line. Recipe for disaster imo.
Already the state has to deal with Sicily and Egypt not being totally in line with the Roman state, having their eastern possessions granted the ability to go AWOL if they wanted too sounds awful. You would effectively have the Greek core of the Empire pressed with keeping RITE, Egypt, AND Sicily in line. Recipe for disaster imo.
Agree. Go for imperial federation before colonies get really restless. Needs a loooot of forward thinking though, same as for brits.
Immigration is another potential source to allieviate demographic problems as we get into periods of increasingly global migration. The OTL Ottomans tried to do something like that during the Tanzimat period, but just couldn't keep up. Being capital rich, land rich, and labor scarce is actually a really good combination for attracting immigrants, provided your society has the necessary institutions to integrate them.
Russia could be another big winner here; a fucntional, stable Russia has more than enough land to do their own version of the homestead act, which is one way of nerfing the TTL equivelant to the USA.
i feel like even if rhomania creates some type of federation the RITE cant be a part of it due to the population, similar to the exclusion of India in a hypothetical Anglo Federation.
Russia has another advantage of the Tsar's direct control over the eastern territories. He has a direct state in their development because he doesn't have to go through the legislature there. Did the russians include a clause or something about renegotiating the power of the Tsar once they effectively run out of land? I remember that part of the deal was once the Tsar's territories have a high enough population/development level, they would become their own federal state and have representatives. This would take a lot of power away from the Tsar, so I wonder how that conversation is going to go. I get the "to be Russian is to be free" but I could see the legislature granting more power to the Tsar given how seemingly well the separation of powers worked, with the Tsar not overstepping his boundaries.
Cryostorm
Monthly Donor
Not sure why not, the biggest issue with India was European style racism which isn't a thing in Rhomania. As for population, RITE will be less than or equal to western Rhomania, the population explosion is a post WWII development, unlike the Indian Raj being larger than the rest of the British Empire combined.