An Age of Miracles III: The Romans Endure

Unless they lose Syria and Northern Mesopotamia they will have a decent national reserve. Not to mention Anatolia and the Balkans has some reserves, though most found post WWII, along with Egypt, Libya, particularly Cyrenaica, and the RITE. They will certainly not have the near print money amount of shear oil wealth the current Persian empire, They would currently have over 40% of known reserves, especially in 1870-1920 access, but will certainly have enough to be a major exporter by modern day.
Keep in mind Georgia as well. They control the oil fields around Baku as well as many of the oil and natural gas fields in the North Caspian and all of the North Caucasus ones. They do not have the population density to consume it entirely, so it will almost certainly also be exported. Presumably to Rhome, in the same way that Canadian and Mexican oil was constantly exported to the United States despite significant natural reserves. Its entirely reasonable to assume that in this outlined period most of Anatolia will be fed by Caucasian oil while the Balkans will be fed by Wallachian oil since those were some of the earliest in history and thus can capture the market until more profitable sources become available. Supplies in Syria and Northern Mesopotamia will likely feed local markets as well as the Levant and Egypt. The discovery would be most significant there, but generally drop the price across the Empire once the infrastructure is developed. Access to cheap chemical energy in this manner locally is incredibly important when it comes to industrialization, so much of it probably won't be exported but instead consumed locally in order to develop the industrial economy. That all assumes it's relatively well managed of course, rather than transforming the country into an oil state.
 
Tbh, even it's just lignite, the Romans are well placed for quite a lot of industrial production if they get the ball rolling. They've got a bit of a perfect world if they have a well-managed policy. First hydro, then add coal, later oil, and given where they are an peace in the region, solar and wind.

If anything they're liable to be more restricted by their water supply for the turbines rather than resources.
 
This continues to be a lovely piece of work.

I'm afraid I have missed some bits of this TL over the last couple turns around the sun, so I need to ask...when did the colonization of Nusanatara/East Eastern Rome begin? (I'm wondering how early they have to get there to forestall the place going Islamic: northern Sumatra had a solid Islamic presence by the late 1200s, and to quote Wikipedia, "By the 14th century, Islam had been established in northeast Malaya, Brunei, the southwestern Philippines, and among some courts of coastal East and Central Java, and by the 15th century, in Malacca and other areas of the Malay Peninsula." )
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
They didn't forestall it - region is mixed Islamic/Hindu, as was OTL.
True, but the Majapahit and other local Hindu rulers were able to successfully push back TTL, around the same time Vijayanagara was taking the Deccan and wrecking Delhi. So Islam had a lesser hold on the area, though I believe Acceh still became a local powerhouse until recently. That being said, I believe Islam's domination of Indonesia only happened after the Dutch colonization, a mix of the benefits of unity plus the Dutch's seeming disinterest in proselytizing and colonization of the region.
 
They didn't forestall it - region is mixed Islamic/Hindu, as was OTL.
Perhaps I misunderstood - I had the impression that the area was supposed to be Christianized, and was thinking Islam would be more of an obstacle to that than Hinduism and Buddhism, given historical examples.

around the same time Vijayanagara was taking the Deccan and wrecking Delhi.

Quibble: I don't think Vijayanagara got anywhere near Delhi: the sultanate had withdrawn from south India and the Deccan well before Vijayanagara got into its full expansion era. (Timur's invasion really didn't help). And my impression is that Islam was politically coming to be in the ascendant over the other religions in Java by the 1500s (the Demak Sultanate held more than half the island by the 1550s): I am rather skeptical of the idea that the Dutch were necessary for the triumph of Islam in Java and Sumatra, although their rule may have accelerated mass conversions and spread it further (Dutch direct rule areas in western Indonesia were pretty tiny before the mid 1600s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_East_Indies#/media/File:Dutch_East_Indies_Expansion.gif )
 
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Perhaps I misunderstood - I had the impression that the area was supposed to be Christianized, and was thinking Islam would be more of an obstacle to that than Hinduism and Buddhism, given historical examples.



Quibble: I don't think Vijayanagara got anywhere near Delhi: the sultanate had withdrawn from south India and the Deccan well before Vijayanagara got into its full expansion era. (Timur's invasion really didn't help). And my impression is that Islam was politically coming to be in the ascendant over the other religions in Java by the 1500s (the Demak Sultanate held more than half the island by the 1550s): I am rather skeptical of the idea that the Dutch were necessary for the triumph of Islam in Java and Sumatra, although their rule may have accelerated mass conversions and spread it further (Dutch direct rule areas in western Indonesia were pretty tiny before the mid 1600s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_East_Indies#/media/File:Dutch_East_Indies_Expansion.gif )

Java and Sumatra are not major Roman colonies. Nor do I think there are Romans in Java and Sumatra.

At this point in time, Roman Asia is about controlling the trade routes and the spice islands. Strait of Malacca using Malay Peninsula or even Singapore, East Asia trade thru basing in Luzon and monopoly of the spice islands, then finally Ceylon towards the Red Sea.

If I remember correctly, Roman Asia is currently - Ceylon, Malay Peninsula, Moluccas, Luzon.
 
I honestly wonder if this might drive an earlier adop
Which actually gets me thinking, between Persia, Rhomania, and Mexico, especially if it holds Venezuela and all of its OTL North American territory, they would essentially control between two-thirds and three quarters of all petroleum production. Add in Russia and Vlachia and oof, OPEC could only dream of that power.
I wonder if this might drive an earlier adoption of renewables. With so much of the world's oil out of the direct control of the western European states, they may look for alternatives as a matter of national security early.
 
Java and Sumatra are not major Roman colonies. Nor do I think there are Romans in Java and Sumatra.

At this point in time, Roman Asia is about controlling the trade routes and the spice islands. Strait of Malacca using Malay Peninsula or even Singapore, East Asia trade thru basing in Luzon and monopoly of the spice islands, then finally Ceylon towards the Red Sea.

If I remember correctly, Roman Asia is currently - Ceylon, Malay Peninsula, Moluccas, Luzon.
IIRC, it was indicated earlier in the thread that Eastern Rome included all of Indonesia plus Malaysia and the Philippines. Perhaps that was just a commenter making unwarranted assumptions.
 
Masaniello eh? We have the proper music ready for the revolution it seems from the Mute of the Portici. Amour Sacre de la Patrie...

TIL about the OTL figure this guy is based on. On one hand, I'm kinda hoping things go better for him than OTL, on the other hand that's bad for our protagonists, unless there's some kind of settlement with the government in Constantinople.
 
IIRC, it was indicated earlier in the thread that Eastern Rome included all of Indonesia plus Malaysia and the Philippines. Perhaps that was just a commenter making unwarranted assumptions.
That's what people assume it would be in the future. For now it's the far smaller area that @Namayan pointed out
 
I’ve argued before and I’ll do so again; the best case scenario for Rome in regards to Sicily is that it becomes truly neutral in a similar vein of Switzerland in OTL.

There are no critical resources that Sicily can provide Rome that it can’t get elsewhere; the economy will always be relatively constrained until a post industrial age as there are no resources necessary for industrialization; and the army/navy that Sicily can raise will never be enough to both defend their homeland AND send large expeditions abroad to help Rome. A Sicily that is fully integrated into Rome or remains as a despotate within the Roman sphere is a net drain on Rome compared to what a neutral Sicily could provide.

A neutral Sicily provides the following:

1) It locks out all other powers from the Mediterranean east of the Tunis-Sicily-Boot simply by existing and stating that violating it would bring their neutrality into question.

2) By being the neutral go between for the Orthodox and Latin world it can leverage those contacts into a strong service based economy which would help the entire Mediterranean basin with increased trade/shipping/tourism

3) It keeps acting as a Western shield for Rome but without the obligations to defense and finances that exist as a Despotate.

A neutral Sicily is better for Rome than a Roman aligned Sicily unless the goal is to pain the map purple. Egypt on the other hand must remain more tightly bound especially if/when a Suez equivalent is constructed.

Indeed. What Constantinople needs from Sicily (and this is a need) is the prevention of another Robert Guiscard or Charles of Anjou. Anything in addition to that is a nice bonus, but just a bonus. And anything that imperils that original function is absolutely not worth it.

Understand that orthodox are overrepresented in Government, but does that apply to the Sicilian Military? Could make the difference between a painful revolt or civil war vs an existential threat.

It’s a mix. Officer corps leans more Orthodox, but rank and file, which is drawn from the peasantry, leans more Catholic.

Interesting development if Sicily. I was about to say "what a nice opportunity for Constantinople to reassert authority and grant some rights and help to disgruntled masses (after the rebellion topples despot)", but I forgot Messina is center of power, not Naples. So the standing government supported by Constantinople remains in place, but a large part of mainland is in rebellion? Since Rome controls city of Rome I guess they can't just cut losses and leave Naples to itself, thus increasing percentage of orthodoxy in despotate.

The Egyptian Despotate has a lot more restrictions placed on it compared to Sicily. The two initially had the same setup, but in the Great Uprising the Roman government was able to force said restrictions on Egypt because of its weak position and need for aid.

This continues to be a lovely piece of work.

I'm afraid I have missed some bits of this TL over the last couple turns around the sun, so I need to ask...when did the colonization of Nusanatara/East Eastern Rome begin? (I'm wondering how early they have to get there to forestall the place going Islamic: northern Sumatra had a solid Islamic presence by the late 1200s, and to quote Wikipedia, "By the 14th century, Islam had been established in northeast Malaya, Brunei, the southwestern Philippines, and among some courts of coastal East and Central Java, and by the 15th century, in Malacca and other areas of the Malay Peninsula." )

Sometime in the early to mid-1500s. Regarding Islam in Indonesia, this is what I figure is the situation as of this point ITTL. Northern Sumatra went like OTL, with Aceh being a powerful Sultanate. Islam is also present, to varying degrees, in parts of the Malay Peninsula, northern Borneo, and in Mindanao and the Sulu Archipelago. (The Sulu Sultanate has been stated to explicitly exist at some point.)

The key changes from OTL are in the Spice Islands, which never went Muslim, and in Java. Due to butterflies, Majapahit lasted longer and delayed the establishment of Islamic states in coastal Java compared to OTL. After the collapse of Majapahit, some of those were established. But (and these have been explicitly stated at some point in the TL) Mataram never went Muslim. It fought a series of wars with the Islamic Sultanates of north coastal Java and recently managed to destroy them with the aid of the Romans. This is the basis of the current Roman-Mataram alliance.
 
Rhomania's General Crisis, Part 9.1: Gathering the Kindling
Rhomania’s General Crisis, part 9.1-Gathering the Kindling:

As blood soaks into the soil of Mesopotamia and the streets of Naples ring with angry cries, long-simmering and long-suffering Isauria finally boils over. In retrospect, the surprise is not that some kind of explosion happened, but that it took so long to detonate.

The Kephale of Isauria is Kalos Papadopoulos, a tall well-built man who at 61 years old has an appearance that in modern times would be described as ‘silver fox’. He is a textbook example that appearance does not positively correlate with personality. He is very corrupt, using his position to garner personal gain for himself. With his legal knowledge, he is very adept at tricking would-be partners into complicated arrangements that always end up with him holding everything at the end of the day.

The most disturbing example of his desire for gain at the expense of all else involves his niece. Her parents had died and he had been appointed to manage her inheritance until she came of age. When that happened, she sued him for mismanagement and misappropriating assets that rightfully belong to her. A week later a gang of men broke into her home and beat her half to death. The lawsuit coincidentally was then withdrawn, while Kalos ended up, as usually, metaphorically walking away with his niece’s inheritance.

Kalos has been smart with his corruption though. From Constantinople’s point-of-view, he has been a good civil servant. The tax receipts always arrive on time and at required levels, and his paperwork is always in order. He could probably get any provincial posting he wanted, but he has always gone for more isolated districts in central and eastern Anatolia. The pickings there are smaller than in more prosperous districts, but the odds of getting into trouble with higher authority are also smaller. A Prokathemenos in Attica in 1654 who tried to pull a similar maneuver with a cousin’s inheritance ended up getting decapitated by a Long Knife for his trouble.

Isauria is a step up in significance from Kalos’s earlier postings, and his age seems to be amplifying his greed and eroding his carefulness. One common tactic is demanding provisions for his tax officials as they make their inspections, which is standard practice, but in excessive amounts above regulation. He then takes those extra provisions and sells them on the market. This is behavior that hardly helps near-famine conditions.

In the autumn of 1660, a delegation of local notables present a gift to the Kephale at his office in Laranda, the capital of the Kephalate. (Most of the locals call the town Karaman, proof of the significant Karamanid influence in the area.) It is a pizza but with pineapple slices on it. The Roman culinary tradition that only meat goes on pizza has already been established, but this famous example is what really pushes the image that to put non-meat on pizza is an accusation of false dealing. Pineapple was chosen because it was exotic and expensive, a way of accusing Kalos of being extortionate and extravagant.

The gesture is a way of accusing Kalos of crimes, but since it is not a verbal or written accusation covered by law, the Kephale is unable to bring charges of libel or slander. Given his skill at manipulating the law and courts to his own advantage, this tactic was well-planned by the local notables. Kalos seems to have ignored the petition. Anything more serious will have to be done through formal channels, and he is confident he can continue to play the system. There is no record of whether or not he ate the pizza, but one hopes his depravity has some limits.

From a distance of nearly four centuries, such a gesture seems quixotic and primarily just seems to be the historical origin of a quirky Roman culinary and cultural custom that exists to this day. But at the time it was a serious gesture of discontent, a warning that things could get worse if things do not change.

The next prominent gesture is much less amusing to the modern reader. In May 1661, as the Roman army is pressing into northern Mesopotamia, a family of five hangs themselves from the trees in the front yard of the Kephale’s townhouse. It is the ultimate gesture of despair and destitution, and the ultimate reproach to the magistrate’s failure and injustice. It is an action that a Chinese audience would immediately understand, although it is unlikely there is a direct connection. More probably, despair and a desire to shame the Kephale overrode the Orthodox Christian prohibition against suicide. (Kalos had been personally involved in dispossessing the family, via exploitation of debts.)

According to rumor, Kalos’s reaction to the ghastly sight was simply to comment that Isauria produces strange fruit on its trees.

To the south of Laranda, in the villages that border the highlands where the Grand Karaman hold sway, Konon of Galesion has begun preaching. It is his first long-term foray outside the lands of the Grand Karaman, save for a visit to Ikonion, since arriving in Isauria from the Holy Mountain of Galesion. To the angry and burned-out peasants, his message of a better world, of a world made right, is electrifying.

His listeners are overwhelmingly village peasants. They are used to hard lives, with existences constantly shaken by bouts of ill fortune and pain that come seemingly out of nowhere: a bad harvest; a sudden illness that takes away the life of a key breadwinner; an accident that maims a child. Taxes and special requisitions also fall into these categories. But these sufferings are at least familiar. That does not mean they do not hurt, but it makes them easier to accept.

Yet the world is changing, and for many, the change is not for the best. In the past century, the Roman economy has become substantially more monetized and commercialized. (The shift in paying the army all in cash, rather than in a mix of land grants and cash, played a major role.) These effects have also been much more widespread, percolating into regions that had been little affected by such economic trends in earlier centuries.

Before, peasants were used to operating on a basis of self-sufficiency, with perhaps a little surplus used to build up favors with neighbors or to buy a few little luxuries or otherwise-unavailable essentials from a small-scale peddler after paying the taxes. Now, to generate the needed cash to pay taxes and to operate in the more monetized economy, they need to produce more for the market. This tends to take away time and resources from self-sufficiency agriculture, for example by growing cash crops instead of grain, which means they have to engage with the market economy even more to ensure access to all the materials they need.

This exposes them to market fluctuations, which to most peasants seem to come out of nowhere for no reason and to be completely arbitrary. Economic downturns hurl them into the clutches of predatory moneylenders. By law, rates of interest on loans are regulated and capped, but such rules are hard to enforce on individual or small-scale loan sharks operating out in the rural countryside far from centers of civic authority. Circuit judges offer some possibility of legal relief, unless said officials are corrupt and paid off by moneylenders, in which case popular discontent naturally increases.

Economic loss leads to land loss, and the tendency has been, especially in the last few decades, for land to concentrate into fewer and fewer hands. Peasants are forced to become tenants on lands they used to own, or thrown off entirely to make way for other enterprises, such as sheep ranges. This is an utter humiliation, bitterly resented particularly as sometimes the loss of ownership of one’s land is linked with a supposed loss of manhood.

This is not the first time the land issue has come up during Rhomania’s medieval history. Concern about smallholding peasants being gobbled up by large landed estates recurs frequently in much of Constantinople’s legislation during the central Middle Ages. But there are also some major differences.

In previous centuries, those taking up the land of the peasantry had been rural magnates. These are still present, but any new large landowners come from other backgrounds, such as urban merchants or perhaps even the predatory moneylenders who had driven the harsh debt cycle. Furthermore, the rural magnates of yesteryear did tend to keep the peasants on as tenants; they needed the agricultural labor.

But many of the landowners of this year are looking to produce profit and minimize labor costs. Rather than skimming rent off the top and leaving the preexisting system in place, they reshape by consolidating estates, focusing on cash crop production, and increasing the land dedicated to pasturage. This means many peasants are not needed as laborers and so are turfed out completely. It is this process which has swelled Rhomania’s urban populations over the last decades.

In the Middle Ages, the Roman government had depended heavily on smallholding peasant agriculture for taxes and army recruits, while officers had come from the dynatoi. This had made the loss of these smallholdings into large rural magnate landholdings, better able to resist tax demands, a serious problem. Given their near-monopoly of high military command experience, such magnates with private armies, could be a serious danger, as a young Basil II could attest.

Now the Roman government has access to other forms of taxes (including more stringent enforcement on the greater landowners) and is not dependent on the dynatoi for its officer class (a major reason why it is able to enforce those taxes on the dynatoi). Thus, this process is not a threat to its manpower or tax base. In some ways it is an improvement, as consolidated estates producing for the market are more efficient and better at producing an exploitable surplus than peasant subsistence agriculture. This means the government hasn’t been nearly as interested in curbing this trend as would have been the case seven centuries earlier.

The peasants of Isauria certainly have no interest in offering up their livelihoods and possibly their lives on the altar of ‘progress’. (Destitution often means death, from starvation. Emigration to the cities offers a possible escape, but given the disease reservoirs to which rural folk have limited immunity, that choice often results in death.) Konon of Galesion offers them a different world.

In late July, Kalos Papadopoulos gets a missive from Constantinople asking him directly what he is doing about Konon. The Kephale is aware of the monk’s preaching, but considers him little more than another annoying rabble rouser. He is unaware of Konon’s connection with the Grand Karaman, but the White Palace, which is, is less sanguine.

Kalos is a bit stung, and also alarmed, by the missive. He is not used to this amount of direct attention from Constantinople and would very much not like for this trend to continue. Well, if Constantinople wants this Konon business resolved quickly, so be it. On July 29, the same day that Duke Maddaloni enters Naples, he leaves Laranda with a column of troops, determined to silence the meddlesome monk.
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
Uh oh, an old English king could have told the White Palace that one should be careful of giving loosely worded and ambiguous directives to underlings. Especially in regards to dealing with popular clergy.
 
Kalos is definitely a fellow connoisseur of pineapple pizza. If he was so depraved as to steal his niece's inheritance and beat her close to death for it, then some sweet exotic fruit on pizza represents him best.

The peasants of Isauria certainly have no interest in offering up their livelihoods and possibly their lives on the altar of ‘progress’. (Destitution often means death, from starvation. Emigration to the cities offers a possible escape, but given the disease reservoirs to which rural folk have limited immunity, that choice often results in death.) Konon of Galesion offers them a different world.
What exactly is Konon offering that the regular Orthodox clergy cannot? Really interested to hear about his philosophy on life and so forth.

The key changes from OTL are in the Spice Islands, which never went Muslim, and in Java. Due to butterflies, Majapahit lasted longer and delayed the establishment of Islamic states in coastal Java compared to OTL. After the collapse of Majapahit, some of those were established. But (and these have been explicitly stated at some point in the TL) Mataram never went Muslim. It fought a series of wars with the Islamic Sultanates of north coastal Java and recently managed to destroy them with the aid of the Romans. This is the basis of the current Roman-Mataram alliance.
Sounds about right. Islam was making headways in Nusantara for centuries but it really exploded after the Majapahit Empire's collapse leading to the formation of new Islamic polities in the archipelago. With Majapahit slowing down its advance and the advent of Roman colonization (which is more interested in proselytizing and integrating the population than the Dutch), it's very likely we could see an Orthodox majority Nusantara.
 

Cryostorm

Monthly Donor
Sounds about right. Islam was making headways in Nusantara for centuries but it really exploded after the Majapahit Empire's collapse leading to the formation of new Islamic polities in the archipelago. With Majapahit slowing down its advance and the advent of Roman colonization (which is more interested in proselytizing and integrating the population than the Dutch), it's very likely we could see an Orthodox majority Nusantara.
Largely depends on how much of Nusantara Rhomania gets, though even if they get the whole thing Hinduism might stay the majority, or at least a very large minority, of the population. A strong Vijayanagara both gives Hinduism overall some strength and gives a very good reason for Rhomania to not disadvantage them too much.
 
What exactly is Konon offering that the regular Orthodox clergy cannot? Really interested to hear about his philosophy on life and so forth.
If I recall correctly, his preaching has what someone form OTL might call proto-socialist elements to it; ie everyone should be equal and everything communal, ect.

Edit: No, wait, those were the guys in Germany. As far as I can tell, his theology isn't specified, but I wouldn't be surprised to find something similar.
 
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Largely depends on how much of Nusantara Rhomania gets, though even if they get the whole thing Hinduism might stay the majority, or at least a very large minority, of the population. A strong Vijayanagara both gives Hinduism overall some strength and gives a very good reason for Rhomania to not disadvantage them too much.
I am inclined to believe Hinduism and Islam remain as large minorities in Nusantara (10-20%) since Orthodox Christians are likely to remain in the Romanized cities while Hinduism/Buddhism or even Animism can persist in more rural areas. Islam is probably going to survive due to previously Islamized ethnic groups continuing to retain their beliefs as a way to differentiate themselves from those who are Romans.

If I recall correctly, his preaching has what someone form OTL might call proto-socialist elements to it; ie everyone should be equal and everything communal, ect.

Edit: Now wait, those were the guys in Germany. As far as I can tell, his theology isn't specified, but I wouldn't be surprised to find something similar.
You're referring to the Ravens in Magdeburg, IIRC.

Konon is very different from those three and remains a huge mystery as of now. Looking at previous posts, Konon is an ascetic that has spiritual ties to Andreas Niketas in some fashion. With that, his compassion for the poor, and his message in the current post, it sort of explains why he is becoming a problem for Kalos.
 
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