1993- Compromises and Cataclysms
War in Bosnia
As weeks and months went by, the Bosnian War was in a period of revolving conflicts and ceasefires. Soldiers of both sides licking their wounds or engaging in urban warfare or battling over territory. All while the increased UN forces try to help with survivors or intervene in attempts of "ethnic purging" from the various occupied areas. Overall, the Bosnian War and the greater Yugoslavic Wars was seeing more and more international attention and the search for a reasonable solution, especially as the bodies keep piling up. Meanwhile, there was also the consideration in how to deal with the leadership, especially with the growing protests against Milosevic. However, given the situation regarding the population of Serbs outside of Serbia itself, an unorthodox solution may be needed here.
Additionally, the sooner a solution would be found, the more bloodshed could be avoided right here. While the ceasefires have helped, various discussions and plans between various world leaders, UN reps and so on, including the ruler of Bosnia, trying to come up that would be a good compromise was rather difficult to say the least, especially given the nature of war thinking that a bit more time could cause the other side to cave in. However, NATO's growing influence over with Bosnia was enough to be able to get some concessions out of them and form a plan. The SUSR was present and while officially formed, was also a bit at a loss here. However, over time, a somewhat unusual plan was beginning to form. It would continue with the trend of federalization of Bosnia-Herzegonia, but also take into account what had happened in Ethiopia and begin steering away from ethnic federalization. The more daring aspect though came in from some of the more interesting possibilities the plan would provide, especially when it would come over to realpolitik.
The plan was to deal with the
Republika Srpska, a proto-state consisting of the Serbian dominant areas of Bosnia-Herzegonia. And itwas here that much of the attempts of "ethnic purging" was happening and the main focus of peacekeeping forces countering such attempts. Despite this and the numerous lives saves, the pictue was still being shaped of two large Bosnian Serb-populated regions sandwiching the lands of the Bosnian Croats and Bosnian along with some other aspects of distribution such as the Bosnians found in the northernmost part. However, the plan here was to take this sandwiching effect and turn it against them. It took alot of arm twisting, planning and consideration for the plan to be considered, but it would be delivered: The Second Dayton Plan,
The Second Dayton Plan
The Second Dayton Plan was a rather unorthodox one yet also ambitious one. The idea was to deal with the Republika Srpska was by trying to reduce their size. The details of the proposal were still being figured out, but the plan was that the sanctions against Yugoslavia would be lifted if in return they would cease any and all aid toward the attempted and breakway republics over from the area. However, to sweeten the deal and also make matters more interesting was the offer for Yugoslavia to be able to annex the southern part of the Republika Srpska, that which was predominantly Serbian. This was perhaps the big problem point over for trying to get Bosnia-Herzegonia on board with this, but it would also turn out to be quite a clever ploy. By accepting this, it would deprive the remaining Republika Srpska of their capital of Pale, going over into becoming a city over in Yugoslavia.
This did leave questions over leadership though the contract did stipulate that if the leaders of Republika Srpska would end up over in the potential new Yugoslavic region, that the Yugoslavian authorities would need to capture and turn them into NATO due to suspicions of war crimes such as instruction for the destruction of cultural and religious institutions along with leading "ethnic purges" and other accusations. Though many suspected that the Republika Srpska would flee either northward to continue the war and thus make it likely for them to be captured. Leaving the nation would be difficult given they would be searched and staying in hiding in Yugoslavia would be too risky for the Milosevic government to accept.
However, the deal was with Yugoslavia, not with the Republika Srpska itself, due to not being recognized as a party. As such, the southern region's decision to join Yugoslavia would be done by referendum and over seen by Serbia itself. Given the statement of Republika Srpska'
Radovan Karadžić over on how he wanted the region to be incorporated into Serbia proper, many believed if the deal was taken, it would lead to that, albeit after a ceasefire and time for transfer of population. The details were still being hammered as to who gets what. However, would be decided that East Herzegovina would remain over in with Bosnia-Herzegovina while the rest of the southern regions would be annexed by Yugoslavia, more specifcally into Serbia itself.
For the Milosevic government, they thought it would be worth it. With the tensions and protests even higher now because of the intense sanctions against them, they were in need of a quick solution. Plus, they would be getting some land out of this and growing Serbia. Of course, this left the question of the northern half. The implications would be that with Yugoslavia backing out, it would leave Republika Srpska, the remains of it, by itself in the war against Croatia and Bosnia, losing its capital and most of its leadership. It would all but offiically be abandoned and left to its own devices. After a bit of time... the Milosevic administration accepted...
Yugoslavic Fallout
Unsurprisingly, the announcement sent a shockwave across Yugoslavia. The Bosnians knew this would be come and many have begun preparing to move away either closer within the mainland or some immigrating to other nations, including the US. Armed guards and reinfocements would watch over the migrations and the passing of the many people traveling to ensure a lack of violence. It was a rather cold compromise it seemed... but it succeeded. In fact, it did far more than people imagined...
The northern half of the Republika Srpska was utterly devastated. Their only ally, the Republic of Serbian Krajina would likely become in trouble too as with Yugoslavia gone from the pictue, the attention would be turned over onto then. Additionally, the decapitation of leadership would occur just as some suspected. Various leaders, including
Radovan Karadžić, would attempt to flee over the new territories of Serbia. The Milosevic government no longer supported them and in fact, would begin hunting them down as letting them stay or even supporting them would violate the terms of the contract and likely shatter whatever small chance of growing peace they had. Naturally though, the various forces suspected of what would happened and would be there to intercept them. Individuals like
Radovan Karadžić and
Ratko Mladić would be tracked, hunted down and caught over the next several weeks.
As the Republika Srpska would scramble to try and find some new leadership, the atmosphere among the people changed. It became one of sadness, disappointment and rage. They were abandoned by Yugoslavia and having lost some of their land too, left to fend for themselves. For many people, the sinking feeling changed and warped into resentment, frustration and outrage. But... the ceasefire still happened and war was not in the air. When the Republika Srpska would finally get a working leadership, at least from those who haven't begun fleeing or going into hiding, they were faced with a choice: continue a losing war or surrender and hope for mercy. There was no real choice. The surrender would come quickly over to the government of Bosnia-Herzegovina and new accords were being drawn up. The war seemed to finally be over... but the scars remained and the pain did... yet in ways people not expected. The Serbs now annexed from the former southern half of the Republika Srpska, they were relieved that the war was over and with the sanctions gone, they could begin rebuilding slowly but surely, creating connections with their countrymen. For those of the former Republika Srpska in Bosnia though, it was the contrary. For many a Bosnian Serb, the anger and resentment from the war would have them turn not against their neighbors, but against Yugoslavia... aganst Milosevic and Serbian nationalism. They blamed for giving them false hopes and promises before betraying them. Others would go even further and would blame them for inciting the conflict against their neighbors. A rift would begin growing between the Bosnian Serbs and those over in Serbia proper.
Meanwhule, Serbian Krajina found itself in trouble as the Croatian and Bosnian forces would now turn on them. Potential chances of Krajina uniting with the Republika Srpska would fail because of Krajina's leader in Goran Hadžić's refusal. While the conflict would rage on, it would seem that things were settling down for now... but despite this, the issues of the Milosevic administration remained deeply and it seemed like a spark could cause it to light up once more. Bosnia-Herzogovina meanwhile would go into talks regarding with federalization attempts along with getting some rebuilding efforts.
One wondered if the dust really has settled...