1880
Southeast Asia
While many sailors over the generations would win acclaim via great decisive victories, in truth the history of naval warfare tended to be relatively conservative. The existence of Navies, like Armies, were primarily a deterrent from aggression. If a Navy (or an army) was unleased....and loses a decisive battle, then the entire war could be effectively lost in a single day.
In the late 19th century, this was no different. If anything, the anxiety was multiplied as new technologies consolidated real power under the masts (and engines) of just a handful of modern ships, the loss of which in a great battle may see a huge empire be placed at the mercy of as few as one or two powerful ships which could lay waste to coastal cities and destroy the commerce of the losers. It was not out of the question, theoretically, that had China or the Marathas not upgraded their navies, one or two of the petty, poor and lightly populated European nations might even bring the mighty Asiatic Empires to heel by virtue of superiority of a few ships. Naturally, this was dismissed as absurd by some (though not by the governor of Van Diemensland, Alfred Mahan, who was writing a book on the subject).
Thus, when the Maratha and Chinese fleets dueled in 1879, it was assumed that the damaged ships could be repaired in a few weeks or months at most (and, for the most part, were) and then sent back into battle. But the confidence (or desperation) which compelled the first battle would dispel and both Empires suddenly determined to see how the war plays out on land before risking a winner-takes-all battle at sea.
Both nations continued to pour manpower into Malaya, Siam and Burma with the intent of vanquishing the enemy. In the meantime, the East India Company, seated in Batavia, would see the "requests" of the Peshwa for martial assistance turn to "demands" and, ultimately, "threats".
Though the EIC had spent years attempting a diplomatic resolution as a "disinterested third party" and loudly proclaiming their neutrality, it was a fact that the battlefield of Malaya was across from the EIC holding of Sumatra. The priceless Straights of Malacca determined the war at sea and the Peshwa had not interest in the EIC not contributing. While no longer a political power on the Subcontinent, the EIC still did a great deal of business in Company factories, held many Maratha government contracts and, perhaps most importantly, the Maratha Empire effectively pointed like a dagger at virtually all direct EIC possession in the East Indies and Southern Africa. The Peshwa's intervention in the Horn of Africa proved without a doubt the Maratha's capacity to interfere further in Africa should they be irritated.
While the EIC was hardly defenseless, the demographics spoke for themselves. The Marathas could destroy the EIC completely. At the moment, it did not appear that China could (though losing the China trade would hurt a great deal as well).
Eventually, an agreement to "loan" much of the EIC fleet to the Maratha's (under EIC officers, of course, with secret orders from Batavia as to what they could or could not do) as well as Maratha agreement to defend Sumatra, Java and the other EIC East Indies should it be necessary. Of course, the Directors most explicitly DID NOT want this to be necessary as it was uncertain just what a Maratha Army might do should they arrive on East Indian soil. Would they ever leave?
However, what the EIC Directors, China and the Marathas had forgotten was the fact that other nations were becoming interested in the region. Russia had long since dominated the Near East north of Arabia politically and wanted to secure their own trade. France had long done business in the region and had been especially interested in Southeast Asia. With the opening of the Suez Canal, both could dispatch large fleets of modern steamships in a fraction of a time than in the past when wars at such a remove were virtually impossible logistically.
The last thing either the Marathas or the EIC wanted was the great nations of Europe suddenly taking an interest in the goings-on of the Indian Ocean. While no major incidents had taken place, tension had been building for years as France looked increasingly interested in the EIC holdings in Africa, particularly the rubber trade. All the European nations (well, all developed nations) were eagerly purchasing rubber from the Congo, from the Viceroyalty of Brazil (which was already exceeding Spain in population and wealth) and wherever else it could be raised. There was talk that the assorted nations of Southeast Asia may become prime exporters if their croplands could be converted over to rubber. Already, the EIC was doing so in Java and Sumatra and Malaya seemed an even better candidate.
Being at the mercy of the EIC or Brazil did not sit well with some European leaders and any new avenues for growth were being explored. To prevent this, the Marathas and EIC would effectively declare the Indian Ocean a warzone and close their ports temporarily to foreign traders who not only lost customers but coaling, watering and victualing stations. While this was explained to be "temporary", the action was viewed as heavy-handed at best, outrageous at worst. While foreign ships were not officially "stopped", the withdrawal of most of their ports in the region would effectively kill trade for months, maybe years.
The EIC, deeming themselves more wise in the politics and diplomacy of the west, would immediately offer to mediate with the white men for the Peshwa. This seemed reasonable but the EIC Ambassadors would prove unexpectedly inept in the role. They effectively looked at a map and noted former regions of conflict and sought to exploit this.
First, they approached the Russians with an offer of Maratha aid against China should Russia seek to regain their far eastern territories lost in the last Chinese war. What they did not take into account was Russian contempt for a "mere Company" seeking to negotiate with a Czar as an equal or the fact that Russia, in 1880, was far more concerned with access to the Indian Ocean now than potential access to the Pacific at some undetermined and vague point in the future. After all, the two major reasons for Russia's expansion to the Pacific in the first place were:
1. Ensuring another supply line to Russian North America....which was now under their own King.
And 2...........Trade with China.
Thus making war on China didn't seem to make a great deal of sense. Given the costs of the previous wars with China and the obvious (and insulting) EIC belief that Russia could be manipulated into an expensive war for EIC and Maratha benefit did little to endear the Maratha/EIC coalition to the Czar.
Similarly, the EIC would temporarily reassign an American officer, one Governor-General George McClellan of EIC East Africa, on a special mission to Manhattan to meet with the King's Ministers. Naturally, as an Ambassador, the man was received by the King first to present his credentials. However McClellan, who had come to think of himself as both a military genius and effective King in his own right by virtue of governing millions of Africans, would act with such oafishness as to offend the King, a young man of general good humor who often laughed at the eccentricities of others.
Naturally, the King said little to McClellan and directed him to his Foreign Secretary. Here, McClellan would do little more than present a secret offer: Should France take a stand AGAINST the Peshwa and Company....then the EIC and Marathas would happily aid British North America in gaining some of those disputed Pacific Islands the nation had been pining for. While the American Foreign Secretary, Benjamin D'Israeli, might have been willing to make such a deal, the First Lord and the King most certainly were NOT. Both were disgusted by this crass and transparent attempt by McClellan (though entirely formed by the Directors of the EIC) to get America to do their "dirty work" for them and promptly agreed that the written offer should be known to the French. The French Ambassador, Giuseppe Garibaldi, would be summoned immediately.
Garibaldi was the scion of an Italic-speaking family in Nice (handed over to France generations earlier) who had longed for his home region to be reunited with Italy. However, the French influence was great and, even in his lifetime, Garibaldi would see the local language reflecting more and more French influence. Seeing his boyhood dreams as unreasonable in middle age, the soldier would apply for a position in the diplomatic corps and, surprisingly, get one. Eventually, Garibaldi was stationed in the 1860's in America and became fast friends with then First Lord Abraham Lincoln. His relationship with Abbott was less close but still warm. However, Garibaldi considered D'Israeli an unprincipled opportunist.
When John Abbott and Benjamin D'Israeli showed the French Ambassador this letter, the usually calm and collected Garibaldi reddened with rage. He managed to stutter out a word of gratitude to the Americans and requested a few days to communicate this to Paris. As it so happened, the first trans-Atlantic cable between France and America had been laid and tested a few months prior and the information speedily conveyed (yet another modern convenience as previous generations could expect 6-12 week delays instead of hours).
While the King of France would not do anything precipitous like declaring war, the immediate effect was to turn French public opinion...and that of the King and government....even further from the Maratha/EIC.