Alternate Electoral Maps II
- Thread starter Aaaaasima
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Don't worry. Later on, there'll be about 10-40 seats in 1 post.Please do not do this for all 650 seats
12:00 AM
WASHINGTON AND SUNDERLAND CENTRAL:
Labour: 58.14
Conservative: 23.16
UKIP: 9.90
Liberal Democrats: 7.40
Green: 1.4
LABOUR HOLD
Total:
Labour: 3
WASHINGTON AND SUNDERLAND CENTRAL:
Labour: 58.14
Conservative: 23.16
UKIP: 9.90
Liberal Democrats: 7.40
Green: 1.4
LABOUR HOLD
Total:
Labour: 3
Bev Perdue? John Edwards? Otherwise, I don't see her winning against McCain in KY and NC.
11.30 PM
West Ham
Conservative: 75.6
Labour: 9.2
Liberal Democrat: 9.1
UKIP: 3.6
Green: 1.3
CONSERVATIVE HOLD
Conservative: 4
Labour: 2
Very droll
1964 with an incumbent President Nixon mopping the floor with George Wallace?
Actually yes, but I did the margins so that it was more or less an exact inverse of OTL 1964. Wallace wins Arizona by less than 1% due to Raul Castro being his running mate.
I think that Wallace would be smart enough not to choose Fidel's brother as his VP.
A different Raul Castro was governor of Arizona from 1975-1977I think that Wallace would be smart enough not to choose Fidel's brother as his VP.
12:30 PM
KETTERING:
Labour: 43.58
Conservative: 37.46
Liberal Democrat: 16.06
Green: 2.9
LABOUR GAIN
SWINDON NORTH
Conservative: 43.66
Labour: 40.51
Liberal Democrats: 10.63
UKIP: 5.18
CONSERVATIVE HOLD
TOTAL:
Labour: 4
Conservative: 1
KETTERING:
Labour: 43.58
Conservative: 37.46
Liberal Democrat: 16.06
Green: 2.9
LABOUR GAIN
SWINDON NORTH
Conservative: 43.66
Labour: 40.51
Liberal Democrats: 10.63
UKIP: 5.18
CONSERVATIVE HOLD
TOTAL:
Labour: 4
Conservative: 1
Ah, map's coming up. I'm waiting until I don't have around 5 constituencies painted on the map.
8:30 P.M. E.S.T.
Gomez: It is now 8:30 in the East, and we have one poll closing:
ARKANSAS (too early to call) - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 971 (51.57%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 892 (47.37%)
Others: 20 (1.06%)
Gomez: Another surprise tonight, Arkansas cannot be projected yet. Once a solidly Democratic state, it last voted Democratic in 1996 for favorite son Bill Clinton, but has since trended sharply Republican, with Bill's wife Hillary barely getting over a third of the vote in 2016. But Manchin is a Democrat of a similar strain as Bill, and Manchin did do some campaigning in Arkansas, so it is not impossible for it to flip. Let's check out how things are going in some of the battleground states:
FLORIDA (too close to call) - 41% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,943,467 (49.94%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,882,444 (48.37%)
Others: 66,012 (1.69%)
Gomez: As usual, the state of Florida is very close. Many votes have yet to be counted, and the state has continued to flip hands, so we will almost certainly be unable to project a winner until well over 90% of the vote is in. So far, Manchin seems to be outperforming typical Democrats in northern rural areas, but Baker appears to be doing well in more urban parts of the state. Florida will certainly be close, but if Baker performs well in the suburbs, he might actually outperform typical GOP presidential candidates, something unlikely to happen in the rest of the South.
INDIANA (too close to call) - 70% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 999,719 (52.24%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 884,972 (46.29%)
Others: 28,012 (1.47%)
Gomez: Indiana is usually a safely Republican state, but it voted for Barack Obama in 2008 in midst of the financial crisis. Manchin's strength in the Rust Belt has once again put the Hoosier State into play, so the winner will not be clear until most of the vote is in.
OHIO (too close to call) - 59% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,632,183 (50.56%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,567,343 (48.56%)
Others: 28,120 (.88%)
Gomez: Ohio, as a perennial swing state, has not voted for the loser since 1960. Especially in this election, where many of the crucial battleground states are in the same region, whoever wins Ohio will most likely become the president.
MASSACHUSETTS (too close to call) - 21% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 356,518 (50.07%)
Baker/Sandoval: 348,577 (48.96%)
Others: 6,912 (.97%)
GEORGIA (too close to call) - 42% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 872,078 (51.07%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 827,772 (48.47%)
Others: 7,901 (.46%)
MISSOURI (too close to call) - 19% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 262,536 (50.15%)
Baker/Sandoval: 259,012 (49.47%)
Others: 2,004 (.38%)
Gomez: Let's look at the map as it stands:
Gomez: No new calls to make. 86 votes have been projected for Baker, 38 for Manchin, 218 remain uncalled, and 196 are in states where polls are still open. Ann, what does this all say about the election?
Miller: Well, Albert, for one I'll say it's very unusual for so many states to remain uncalled. Baker and Manchin's appeals to demographics different from their party's norm has shaken up the electoral system. Regardless of who wins, a very unorthodox coalition will push the victor over the line.
Gomez: It is now 8:30 in the East, and we have one poll closing:
ARKANSAS (too early to call) - <1% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 971 (51.57%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 892 (47.37%)
Others: 20 (1.06%)
Gomez: Another surprise tonight, Arkansas cannot be projected yet. Once a solidly Democratic state, it last voted Democratic in 1996 for favorite son Bill Clinton, but has since trended sharply Republican, with Bill's wife Hillary barely getting over a third of the vote in 2016. But Manchin is a Democrat of a similar strain as Bill, and Manchin did do some campaigning in Arkansas, so it is not impossible for it to flip. Let's check out how things are going in some of the battleground states:
FLORIDA (too close to call) - 41% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,943,467 (49.94%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,882,444 (48.37%)
Others: 66,012 (1.69%)
Gomez: As usual, the state of Florida is very close. Many votes have yet to be counted, and the state has continued to flip hands, so we will almost certainly be unable to project a winner until well over 90% of the vote is in. So far, Manchin seems to be outperforming typical Democrats in northern rural areas, but Baker appears to be doing well in more urban parts of the state. Florida will certainly be close, but if Baker performs well in the suburbs, he might actually outperform typical GOP presidential candidates, something unlikely to happen in the rest of the South.
INDIANA (too close to call) - 70% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 999,719 (52.24%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 884,972 (46.29%)
Others: 28,012 (1.47%)
Gomez: Indiana is usually a safely Republican state, but it voted for Barack Obama in 2008 in midst of the financial crisis. Manchin's strength in the Rust Belt has once again put the Hoosier State into play, so the winner will not be clear until most of the vote is in.
OHIO (too close to call) - 59% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 1,632,183 (50.56%)
Baker/Sandoval: 1,567,343 (48.56%)
Others: 28,120 (.88%)
Gomez: Ohio, as a perennial swing state, has not voted for the loser since 1960. Especially in this election, where many of the crucial battleground states are in the same region, whoever wins Ohio will most likely become the president.
MASSACHUSETTS (too close to call) - 21% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 356,518 (50.07%)
Baker/Sandoval: 348,577 (48.96%)
Others: 6,912 (.97%)
GEORGIA (too close to call) - 42% reporting
Baker/Sandoval: 872,078 (51.07%)
Manchin/Klobuchar: 827,772 (48.47%)
Others: 7,901 (.46%)
MISSOURI (too close to call) - 19% reporting
Manchin/Klobuchar: 262,536 (50.15%)
Baker/Sandoval: 259,012 (49.47%)
Others: 2,004 (.38%)
Gomez: Let's look at the map as it stands:
Gomez: No new calls to make. 86 votes have been projected for Baker, 38 for Manchin, 218 remain uncalled, and 196 are in states where polls are still open. Ann, what does this all say about the election?
Miller: Well, Albert, for one I'll say it's very unusual for so many states to remain uncalled. Baker and Manchin's appeals to demographics different from their party's norm has shaken up the electoral system. Regardless of who wins, a very unorthodox coalition will push the victor over the line.
Can anyone figure out what these maps represent?
Jones - 277 EVs
Miller - 261 EVs
Lopez - 270 EVs
Kerr - 268 EVs
Jones - 277 EVs
Miller - 261 EVs
Lopez - 270 EVs
Kerr - 268 EVs
So far quite a few results are surprising. Im struggling to see why so many Democrats have voted for a candidate that is pro - life and who deliberately abstained from voting on the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell and the DREAM Act. Furthermore, he supports the 2nd amendment, which after Florida would alienate a lot of the Democrats' younger voters. Then, he is very pro industry, so, he will probably have the 'Trump' effect on how the rust belt votes.
Why would states such as Massachusetts vote for a Democrat who is basically Trump?
Why would states such as Massachusetts vote for a Democrat who is basically Trump?
The problem with Manchin vs. Baker is that the two agree on too many positions. Both are anti-marijuana, tough on crime, pro-business (with the caveat that Manchin is still pro-regulation), and generally blank slates on immigration and foreign policy. There’s no way they could run against each other with their current positions- there are too many voters neither appeals to.
If Manchin is smart in this scenario, he’d pivot to the center first, support prison reform and the DREAM Act, have a sudden revelation on marijuana and gay marriage (by 2020 even a sizeable portion of West virginians will support both), and cozy up to as many unions as possible. As the two currently stand, Manchin is more pro-union, especially when it comes to teacher unions, so it might be smart for him to tout education and infrastructure when he appeals to Democrats.
Baker can’t back down on lgbt issues or abortion at this point, and I’m not sure where else he could change his positions to win back evangelicals. If he concedes them to Manchin, he can turn to the right on energy, or he can go all-out on appealing to young voters, which is probably the best long-term strategy but would require him to admit marijuana isn’t that bad.
It comes down to who flips first on what.
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