Alternate Electoral Maps II

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I made a Cuban electoral college!
PM if you want the OG version.
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The 2014 Cuban presidential election was a change in the political system of Cuba.
While the past 30 years had been a dominant time for the Action Party, however the Touzet administration had failed with the economy and an unpopular failed war in Trinidad and Tobago would have caused a bad loss for anyone. But, when Governor of La Habana and former WFL star Marco Rubio announced his run, Action knew that they had no chance. Rubio was extremely popular mainly for his incredible career as a Linebacker in the WFL, and he had made a name for himself for leading La Habana to a great economy. He easily gained the Liberal nomination and lead the polls all during the campaign. However, even the polls were surprised at the extreme success of Rubio.

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Marco Rubio (Liberal) 116 EVs, 4,620,265 PV, 60.1 PV%
Carlos Prio-Touzet (Action) 0 EVs, 2,798,297 PV, 36.4 PV%
Liaena Hernández Martinez (FLA) 0 EVs, 253,692 PV, 3.3 PV%


 
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2016 if the nation voted exactly like California did, in terms of the demographic breakdown:


genusmap.php



Hillary Clinton (D-NY)/Tim Kaine (D-VA) 80,276,408 - 58.5% - 438 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump (R-NY)/Mike Pence (R-IN) 57,889,802 - 41.5% - 100 Electoral Votes
And 2016 if the US as a whole voted like Mississippi:

genusmap.php


Trump wins the Popular Vote 68-32 and wins everything except for Hawaii and DC. The only "close" state is Maryland which Trump wins by about 9.5%.

A few questions for you, relating to these. What would be the demographic breakdown in each scenario? In terms of how racial groups vote?
 
A few questions for you, relating to these. What would be the demographic breakdown in each scenario? In terms of how racial groups vote?


For the first one:
Clinton wins whites 50-45, blacks 88-10, Hispanics 70-27 and Asians 67-30
For the Second one:
Trump wins whites 88-11, loses blacks 91-7, loses Hispanics 65-33, and loses Asians 64-30.
 
For the first one:
Clinton wins whites 50-45, blacks 88-10, Hispanics 70-27 and Asians 67-30
For the Second one:
Trump wins whites 88-11, loses blacks 91-7, loses Hispanics 65-33, and loses Asians 64-30.
I see. It's amazing how intensely polarized blacks and whites are in Mississippi. But it's interesting that with black voters, Democrats are always assured at least 40% there.
 
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U.K. 2017 youth turn out bump and left ward shift reflected to the US 2020 election
68,297,459 335 ECV Democratic candidate Karmala Harris Jeff Merkely
60,899,768 203 ECV Republican Candidate Donald Trump Mike Pence
Youth turn out 18-29 year olds increases 8% to 58%
Democratic support surges past even 2008 and hits 70%
Of what Nate Silver calls the " Reluctant trump voters who numbered roughly 6% of 3.7 million in 2016. A third defect to the democrats and a third simply don't vote or vote third party leaving only about 1.23 million of those voters left. The Combined drop in republican support and turn out with the big increase in democratic support and turn out produces a democratic wave half way between 2008 and 2012.
A strong center Right third party let's say Kasich/Corker wins 5% nationally
While the Libertarian 0.5% and Greens take less then 0.2%. It's important to note that trump got about 100k less votes nationally then Romney did in 2012 despite a larger electorate that is
18 million voters larger at 147 million voters to 2012 129 million voters. Turn out hits 60.3% the highest rate since 1968, and a increase of 5.7% the largest shift in voter turn out since 1992 and the largest positive shift since 1952.
Iowa -0.06% T 48.96% H 48.90% K 3.6%
Ohio -0.1% T 44.9% K 44.8% K 9.6%
Arizona 0.4% K 46.2% T 45.9% K 6.8%
Georgia -0.9% T 46.3% 45.4% K 8.8%
Utah -1.8% T 42% H 32% K 25% O 1%
 
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