U.K. 2017 youth turn out bump and left ward shift reflected to the US 2020 election
68,297,459 335 ECV Democratic candidate Karmala Harris Jeff Merkely
60,899,768 203 ECV Republican Candidate Donald Trump Mike Pence
Youth turn out 18-29 year olds increases 8% to 58%
Democratic support surges past even 2008 and hits 70%
Of what Nate Silver calls the " Reluctant trump voters who numbered roughly 6% of 3.7 million in 2016. A third defect to the democrats and a third simply don't vote or vote third party leaving only about 1.23 million of those voters left. The Combined drop in republican support and turn out with the big increase in democratic support and turn out produces a democratic wave half way between 2008 and 2012.
A strong center Right third party let's say Kasich/Corker wins 5% nationally
While the Libertarian 0.5% and Greens take less then 0.2%. It's important to note that trump got about 100k less votes nationally then Romney did in 2012 despite a larger electorate that is
18 million voters larger at 147 million voters to 2012 129 million voters. Turn out hits 60.3% the highest rate since 1968, and a increase of 5.7% the largest shift in voter turn out since 1992 and the largest positive shift since 1952.
Iowa -0.06% T 48.96% H 48.90% K 3.6%
Ohio -0.1% T 44.9% K 44.8% K 9.6%
Arizona 0.4% K 46.2% T 45.9% K 6.8%
Georgia -0.9% T 46.3% 45.4% K 8.8%
Utah -1.8% T 42% H 32% K 25% O 1%