AHC/WI: Successful Barbarossa, Defeated Axis

VadisDeProfundis

Gone Fishin'
With a PoD after the Nazi invasion of Poland, have the Wehrmacht successfully invade and even defeat the USSR, but have the Axis Powers eventually be defeated, before 1950 and without any atomic bombs.

What would such a world look like? Would Russia and Eastern Europe have been governed democratically? Could this defeated Germany escape an alt-Morgenthau Plan? How would Communism be viewed across the world, had it collapsed after the german invasion? What would the borders of Europe look like, what would societies and politics of the post war world be like, with the two great totalitarian regimes of the 20th century being completely destroyed? Might we see earlier “end of history” style remarks by academics and intellectuals? Would populism rise in such a world? Could social democrats still implement Keynesian policies, would here be the internationalist spirit that the world was founded on?
 
Eastern europe would be very depopulated for one. Russia/USSR would be even harsher on German civilians. Expect the people of eastern europe to absolutely hate Germans with a burning passion for years to come.
 
With a PoD after the Nazi invasion of Poland, have the Wehrmacht successfully invade and even defeat the USSR, but have the Axis Powers eventually be defeated, before 1950 and without any atomic bombs.
Unless you go rules-lawyer and have the Western Allies use chemical and biological weapons on a large basis, just no A-Bombs, then no. With no Eastern Front and no Nukes they can nibble around the edges of Europe, but not force their way into continental Europe without a butchers bill, that would require them to be Stalinist instead of Democracies.
Some people might disagree and point out the massive industrial potential of the US. But well it's not what you got it's what you can deploy along a logistical chain that's only as strong as it's weakest link. In OTL D-Day was almost guaranteed to be an Allied victory, yet if an unexpected arrival of really bad weather had destroyed the Mulberries, then they would have failed and all their resources wouldn't have been able to change that.
 
Eastern europe would be very depopulated for one. Russia/USSR would be even harsher on German civilians. Expect the people of eastern europe to absolutely hate Germans with a burning passion for years to come.

If Barbarossa is successful, then it will be the Western Allies dictating the postwar settlement of Europe among themselves, with the Soviets lucky to restore their borders to where they were at the beginning of 1939. They will not be in a position to occupy Poland, much less Germany.
 

Deleted member 1487

With a PoD after the Nazi invasion of Poland, have the Wehrmacht successfully invade and even defeat the USSR, but have the Axis Powers eventually be defeated, before 1950 and without any atomic bombs.
Not that hard, have a few things go their way during June-July (I can suggest a couple of things) and Leningrad falls in July, which opens up a lot of butterflies that would not benefit the USSR. Have some of those result in the fall of Moscow due to an earlier offensive against the city and a subsequent failure of a Soviet counteroffensive in the autumn/winter of 1941-42 and the USSR beings to unravel. 1942 still sees a major offensive on the Eastern Front to finish off the USSR, which forces an Wallied Autumn invasion of France, the plan to occupy the Cotentin Peninsula to build up a redoubt rather than go full break out in 1942 or early 1943. Have that hang on, which actually shouldn't be that hard given the floating artillery park the Wallies had as well as their air force replacement abilities, and eventually start grinding it's way out of the bridgehead over the course of 1943-44; since a huge part of the German army would still be needed in the East and in the meantime the Wallies could also launch an invasion of North Africa and later Italy while German attention is glued to France, that is certainly do-able without Soviet level casualties being suffered by the Wallies, though they will suffer quite a bit more than IOTL. The strategic air war will be where things are won, because once the Luftwaffe is ground down like IOTL bombing of industry, transportation, and oil will happen and collapse the German economy. It may well take through 1945, but it will happen.

The problem is no nukes once you get into August 1945. Perhaps ITTL the Wallies devote less resources to the program due to having to build up a bigger army to make up for the lack of Soviet help beyond 1943, so there a delay in the final product? But once the bomb is available the Wallies will find somewhere to get a combat test of it before the war ends. It is possible to potentially get a German surrender before that happens, say if Hitler is successfully killed in an assassination and the resulting civil war collapsing the German army's ability to resist in the field, but who knows if that is likely or not.

What would such a world look like? Would Russia and Eastern Europe have been governed democratically? Could this defeated Germany escape an alt-Morgenthau Plan? How would Communism be viewed across the world, had it collapsed after the german invasion? What would the borders of Europe look like, what would societies and politics of the post war world be like, with the two great totalitarian regimes of the 20th century being completely destroyed? Might we see earlier “end of history” style remarks by academics and intellectuals? Would populism rise in such a world? Could social democrats still implement Keynesian policies, would here be the internationalist spirit that the world was founded on?
I'd say a lot would depend on what happens to Russia and Eastern Europe in the meantime. If the Wallies get units there they would favor non-communist governments and since the USSR is the only are that had it's own communist government without external support imposing it in some capacity I think it is likely that everyone gets a US supported 'democratic' government. Communism would likely be a non-entity without the USSR surviving the war and viewed as an ultimately failed system that couldn't stand up to Fascism. I don't think TTL's Germany would escape some sort of a Morgenthau-lite program, but they are still too important to the European economy to simply Morgenthau. Plus without FDR alive past April 1945 there wouldn't likely be the institutional support for such a plan, even with a more damaged world due to a more successful invasion of the USSR. But there would be a lot more punishment of Germany than IOTL, at least by Wallied standards.

I'd say that a social democracy type movement in Europe may or may not be possible depending on the level of destruction and population death, but without the Cold War there is more money for social spending. Of course without an ideological foe to resist the world might go full capitalism earlier and harder with all the resulting inequalities that would result. Its really hard to say given the butterflies.
 
If Barbarossa is successful, then it will be the Western Allies dictating the postwar settlement of Europe among themselves, with the Soviets lucky to restore their borders to where they were at the beginning of 1939. They will not be in a position to occupy Poland, much less Germany.
Well, true. But I mean, eastern european countries will be extremely harsh on Germans within their territory. Possibly more than otl.
 
Well, true. But I mean, eastern european countries will be extremely harsh on Germans within their territory. Possibly more than otl.
Only if the have the population left to do so. People might be talking more about the genocide of the Slavs then the holocaust of the Jews who are probably almost completely wiped out in Europe. The amount of death in the east would be massive
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
Well, true. But I mean, eastern european countries will be extremely harsh on Germans within their territory. Possibly more than otl.
They already expelled them all in OTL. The only way they could be harsher is by killing or enslaving them all, which the Western Allies wouldn’t approve of.
 
They already expelled them all in OTL. The only way they could be harsher is by killing or enslaving them all, which the Western Allies wouldn’t approve of.

"Approval" is more a game of sanction than permission. Pogroms don't answer to the UN.
 
The East is going to be grimdark with artificial famines, a breakdown in medical care and living conditions seeing disease and exposure claiming millions, and the Germans doing their best to drive the Slavs east of the Urals in a migration that makes the Trail of Tears seem a parade.
 
The East is going to be grimdark with artificial famines, a breakdown in medical care and living conditions seeing disease and exposure claiming millions, and the Germans doing their best to drive the Slavs east of the Urals in a migration that makes the Trail of Tears seem a parade.
I think people often forget how bad the Eastern front was. The Germans are literally doing Roman type brutalities but with modern technology. Also what is the impact of them wiping out all Jews or Roma? If the war went on longer wouldn’t many genocides be more successful or even fully successful especially if it ends in 49ish? Won’t the Germans even if they lose have more land by default if they are the only group left in many areas after the war? I don’t think the allies will be much harsher on them then otl especially after FDR dies but denazification could be more extreme. Civilians might not get punished much but the Wehrmacht might get harsher treatment. Same goes for many politicians and scientist. The lack of USSR means they get purged more after the war. They will probably hunt down the ones who go to South America too.
 
Probably in the case of very organized militias but you can't starve a city because of a lynching
Depends on how distributed or overstretched the Allied troops are, and how high the local commanders hold the local opinions. Some podunk town in the ass end of Siberia probably won't get much policing, but Warsaw and Moscow will at least have a considerable presence to maintain law and order. Similarly, even if the Axis troops destroyed most of the army, there's bound to be a new government once the war was over, and they'd be the ones responsible for law and order, and will work closely with the Americans. Plus, you know, lynchings disrupt peace, and peace is needed for rebuilding, so the local authorities tend to frown on that.

On the other hand, if the local authorities are the ones doing the lynching, the Allies have a choice between either forcing them to toe the line and risk souring relations when they need them most, or just gritting their teeth and sweeping it under the rug. It really depends.
 
Not that hard, have a few things go their way during June-July (I can suggest a couple of things) and Leningrad falls in July, which opens up a lot of butterflies that would not benefit the USSR. Have some of those result in the fall of Moscow due to an earlier offensive against the city and a subsequent failure of a Soviet counteroffensive in the autumn/winter of 1941-42 and the USSR beings to unravel. 1942 still sees a major offensive on the Eastern Front to finish off the USSR, which forces an Wallied Autumn invasion of France, the plan to occupy the Cotentin Peninsula to build up a redoubt rather than go full break out in 1942 or early 1943.

Implausible, IMO. With Soviets collapsing in 1942, WAllies don't have much more than they had for Dieppe, and Germans would be free to reroute most of the Luftwaffe, tank corps and artillery west - and that mass of veterans would allow them to crush any continental presence of WAllies.
At best, it's bombing campaign and economic noose, but that takes time.
 
Top