AHC/WI: Independent Goa

[TheWitheredStriker]

For those unaware, Goa refers to a Portuguese possession on the coast of India from 1505 onwards. Its population converted to Christianity as a result of Portuguese colonialism. After India became independent in 1947, they demanded that Portugal turn over Goa to them, but Portugal (then under a very anti-decolonial regime) refused and told them to fuck off. Eventually in 1961 India just invaded and conquered Goa using force. The territories are now the Indian state of Goa and the union territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu (actually the full name of the territory).

With this in mind, how could Goa become fully independent at some point after 1945? I'm talking about being part of neither India, nor Portugal, but being a fully independent state. While I'm not sure exactly on how to do this, two things strike me as necessary pre-conditions.

First off, the more united India is, the lower Goa's chances are of not being gobbled up. In fact, OTL!Goa bordered only India over land, which makes it really difficult for the territory to not be conquered. That's where my first remedy comes in: Dravida Nadu. Assuming this movement gets their way and a separate Dravidian state emerges in South India, Goa has a lot more breathing room already. First off, Goa would border both India/Bharat and Dravida, as Goa borders Karnataka and Karnataka would almost certainly be part of Dravida. Secondly, it becomes a bit more difficult to insist that Goa should be turned over, since who should get it? India or Dravida?

Another prerequisite we would need is for joining India to be undesirable to Goa. Essentially, we need to ensure that even if a referendum took place, the Goans wouldn't vote to join India in the end. Goa would need to somehow be better off on its own (or as part of Portugal for a little longer) than within India. I've thought of some potential means to accomplish this. Perhaps India would be dominated by staunch Hindu nationalists rather than the INC, leading to Goa refusing entry into India out of fear that their unique Catholic identity, culture and beliefs would come under attack. Another idea I had was for India to go communist, which would certainly make the US and UK hell-bent on keeping Goa as part of Portugal, but the issue is that I have no slightest clue how to plausibly get India to become communist.

With all this said, I have decided to consult the board:

• Joining India needs to be undesirable for Goa in such a way that the international community wouldn't mind if Portugal held on to the territory for longer. But how?
• Am I on the right track about disuniting India (in this case with Dravida Nadu) being a good way to keep Goa outside of India?
• Perhaps the biggest issue here: Goa is realistically not going to become independent until 1975. IOTL, it was conquered in 1961. This means that Goa somehow needs to avoid Indian annexation until 1961 and then for an additional 14 years without India deciding to steamroll in anyway.

I'm at a bit of an impasse here. I feel like I'm so close, yet so far. Anyone got comments or ideas?

 

[Lalli]

There should be even further balkanised India but not sure if it is possible even with 1900 POD. At least not with 1945 POD. Perhaps if you get independent Dravida nation but I am not sure how much that helps. Of course it would bit help if Goans just not want to join to India but India could easily take and control that with pure force unless Portugal is able to defend Goa. Perhaps you could try get rid Estado Novo either so that it falls much earlier or not never take power but I don't know how this would be possible since even that would has more chances than basically failed First Republic.

 

[Evil Crusader]

Not sure if the thread is meant to go in After 1900, as it is implied in the proposition and OP.
Still, frankly, it's a bit of a nonstarter with a post-1900 POD, or rather, it can be done, but it's hard to do so in a way that doesn't clearly show it's all about keeping Goa from India, such as going out of one's way to ensure a balkanised India and thwarting Indian nationalism at every corner and then some.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Oops! Yeah, this probably should've gone to post-1900. Then again, a pre-1900 PoD might be useful? I'm not certain myself. I'll leave it up to the moderators' discretion.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Just reported my own post to get this thread moved to post-1900.

With this said, you are definitely right about this being really difficult to do. I've tried thinking of some other plans, like a stronger Portuguese Empire if not outright a surviving United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves, but at that point the world will be radically different due to the century of butterflies.

 

[Geekhis Khan]

In a vision, Vishnu convinces Nehru to let them "Goa Way".

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

In a vision, Vishnu convinces Nehru to let them "Goa Way".

This one got more of a grin out of me than I'd like to admit.

 

[Jason Returned]

This does feel like quite a challenge

Perhaps, if a post-Independence India had a more positive relationship with the UK, who in turn saw the "Old Alliance" with Portugal as an active relationship with a significant impact on its foreign policy? Then the UK could use gentle arts of diplomacy to get India to leave Goa alone (as a favour to their old allies).

In the meantime, Portugal encourages economic development in Goa, in the emerging new IT technologies, in the 1960s and 1970s. As a result, Goa starts to build an electronics-based economy that makes considerable exports to India (among others). This helps with the on-going industrialisation of India and reduces its reliance on the West, the USSR, etc, for such technology. The possibility of conflict between India and Portugal over Goa diminishes as India recognises the damage done to the new industries during an attack would vastly outweigh the advantages of bringing them into India.

With the Carnation Revolution and the end of the Portuguese Empire, there is an initial concern that India might try and seize the city. However due to some delicate London-led diplomacy, an agreement is reached that will allow Goa to become an independent city-state (a mini-Singapore?) recognised by India. in return for India continuing to have preferential access to Goan electronic developments.

Ok, maybe a bit ASB

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

This does feel like quite a challenge

Perhaps, if a post-Independence India had a more positive relationship with the UK, who in turn saw the "Old Alliance" with Portugal as an active relationship with a significant impact on its foreign policy? Then the UK could use gentle arts of diplomacy to get India to leave Goa alone (as a favour to their old allies).

In the meantime, Portugal encourages economic development in Goa, in the emerging new IT technologies, in the 1960s and 1970s. As a result, Goa starts to build an electronics-based economy that makes considerable exports to India (among others). This helps with the on-going industrialisation of India and reduces its reliance on the West, the USSR, etc, for such technology. The possibility of conflict between India and Portugal over Goa diminishes as India recognises the damage done to the new industries during an attack would vastly outweigh the advantages of bringing them into India.

With the Carnation Revolution and the end of the Portuguese Empire, there is an initial concern that India might try and seize the city. However due to some delicate London-led diplomacy, an agreement is reached that will allow Goa to become an independent city-state (a mini-Singapore?) recognised by India. in return for India continuing to have preferential access to Goan electronic developments.

Ok, maybe a bit ASB

I don't mind; I appreciate the response! Yeah, it's definitely hard as balls. But that's just how things are sometimes.

I think this is an interesting way to do it, and perhaps we can add Dravida Nadu to the equation to further reduce the possibility of Goa being annexed by India (since they're no longer the sole "claimant" to the territory now).

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

For those unaware, Goa refers to a Portuguese possession on the coast of India from 1505 onwards. Its population converted to Christianity as a result of Portuguese colonialism. After India became independent in 1947, they demanded that Portugal turn over Goa to them, but Portugal (then under a very anti-decolonial regime) refused and told them to fuck off. Eventually in 1961 India just invaded and conquered Goa using force. The territories are now the Indian state of Goa and the union territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu (actually the full name of the territory).

With this in mind, how could Goa become fully independent at some point after 1945? I'm talking about being part of neither India, nor Portugal, but being a fully independent state. While I'm not sure exactly on how to do this, two things strike me as necessary pre-conditions.

First off, the more united India is, the lower Goa's chances are of not being gobbled up. In fact, OTL!Goa bordered only India over land, which makes it really difficult for the territory to not be conquered. That's where my first remedy comes in: Dravida Nadu. Assuming this movement gets their way and a separate Dravidian state emerges in South India, Goa has a lot more breathing room already. First off, Goa would border both India/Bharat and Dravida, as Goa borders Karnataka and Karnataka would almost certainly be part of Dravida. Secondly, it becomes a bit more difficult to insist that Goa should be turned over, since who should get it? India or Dravida?

Another prerequisite we would need is for joining India to be undesirable to Goa. Essentially, we need to ensure that even if a referendum took place, the Goans wouldn't vote to join India in the end. Goa would need to somehow be better off on its own (or as part of Portugal for a little longer) than within India. I've thought of some potential means to accomplish this. Perhaps India would be dominated by staunch Hindu nationalists rather than the INC, leading to Goa refusing entry into India out of fear that their unique Catholic identity, culture and beliefs would come under attack. Another idea I had was for India to go communist, which would certainly make the US and UK hell-bent on keeping Goa as part of Portugal, but the issue is that I have no slightest clue how to plausibly get India to become communist.

With all this said, I have decided to consult the board:

• Joining India needs to be undesirable for Goa in such a way that the international community wouldn't mind if Portugal held on to the territory for longer. But how?
• Am I on the right track about disuniting India (in this case with Dravida Nadu) being a good way to keep Goa outside of India?
• Perhaps the biggest issue here: Goa is realistically not going to become independent until 1975. IOTL, it was conquered in 1961. This means that Goa somehow needs to avoid Indian annexation until 1961 and then for an additional 14 years without India deciding to steamroll in anyway.

I'm at a bit of an impasse here. I feel like I'm so close, yet so far. Anyone got comments or ideas?

You could have like during an earlier event in the history of India a pogrom of Christians by a group that wanted independence from the U.K. which would certainly dissuade Goa's population from joining India.
Also India during the Cold War had quite close ties with the Soviets so Portugal could convince the U.S. to support them diplomatically (especially if the Indians decide to invade) and the Soviets wouldn't consider Goa worth it to escalate the tension. You could put a competent leader in Goa(/the Portuguese are more interested in Goa) which transforms it in a sort of Hong Kong of India (this might have consequences on Macao) so the population of Goa would see the Indians as trying to massacre them and use them to make profit.
Its not perfect but I think that with a little bit of luck Goa could remain Portuguese until decolonization, I think the biggest obstacle to an independent Goa might be the potential reunification with India as after all this time people would sort of forget what happened a long time ago and accept a reunification with India with some privileges.
Lets just say that the Portuguese make a referendum and Goa votes to become and independent country. It would become a sort of Singapore 2.0.
This is the best thing I could come up with, I think its not impossible to happen.
Please tell me what you think about this timeline

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

You could have like during an earlier event in the history of India a pogrom of Christians by a group that wanted independence from the U.K. which would certainly dissuade Goa's population from joining India.
Also India during the Cold War had quite close ties with the Soviets so Portugal could convince the U.S. to support them diplomatically (especially if the Indians decide to invade) and the Soviets wouldn't consider Goa worth it to escalate the tension. You could put a competent leader in Goa(/the Portuguese are more interested in Goa) which transforms it in a sort of Hong Kong of India (this might have consequences on Macao) so the population of Goa would see the Indians as trying to massacre them and use them to make profit.
Its not perfect but I think that with a little bit of luck Goa could remain Portuguese until decolonization, I think the biggest obstacle to an independent Goa might be the potential reunification with India as after all this time people would sort of forget what happened a long time ago and accept a reunification with India with some privileges.
Lets just say that the Portuguese make a referendum and Goa votes to become and independent country. It would become a sort of Singapore 2.0.
This is the best thing I could come up with, I think its not impossible to happen.
Please tell me what you think about this timeline

I appreciate the effort! It sounds good. Perhaps a combination of everything we have so far (Dravida Nadu, more compent Portugal, Soviet-aligned India, economical boom in Goa) could do the trick.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

I appreciate the effort! It sounds good. Perhaps a combination of everything we have so far (Dravida Nadu, more compent Portugal, Soviet-aligned India, economical boom in Goa) could do the trick.

Anyways may I ask why did you become interested in having Goa as an independent nation?
(I think the pogrom of Christians is also important as it would make the population of Goa extremely opposed to unification with India)

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Anyways may I ask why did you become interested in having Goa as an independent nation?
(I think the pogrom of Christians is also important as it would make the population of Goa extremely opposed to unification with India)

I was toying around with having more states in the Indian subcontinent post-independence in one of my conworld projects; in addition to India and Dravida Nadu, I also split off Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur, Sikkim, Tamil Eelam, Ladakh and Baltistan with a variety of PoDs* both before and after 1947. And naturally, Goa was next In particular, I think Goa would be quite interesting to explore as a sovereign state, considering its Christian Luso-Indian culture and society, its greater wealth, its Portuguese-inspired architecture, and its own flair of the Konkani language (which IIRC they wrote in the Latin script).

(*For Mizoram, Nagaland, and Manipur, I had them attached to Scottish Burma [Scotland being independent here; they partitioned Assam between themselves and England], as a reference to how Myanmar IOTL was largely run by Scotsmen, before they became independent separately from Burma in 1948; Dravida Nadu descended from a French South India with its capital at Pondichéry, and is a Malaysia-style federation of princely states, with Mysore, Hyderabad, and Travancore being the most prominent ones; Tamil Eelam seceded from Sri Lanka using Dravidian assistance; and Ladakh and Baltistan were conquered by the Qing dynasty in the Dogra-Tibetan War, becoming client states of Tibet until later regaining independence. Lastly, for Sikkim, I was less certain on how to do it, but the revolt against the Chogyal definitely needs to be stopped somehow)

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

I was toying around with having more states in the Indian subcontinent post-independence in one of my conworld projects; in addition to India and Dravida Nadu, I also split off Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur, Sikkim, Tamil Eelam, Ladakh and Baltistan with a variety of PoDs* both before and after 1947. And naturally, Goa was next In particular, I think Goa would be quite interesting to explore as a sovereign state, considering its Christian Luso-Indian culture and society, its greater wealth, its Portuguese-inspired architecture, and its own flair of the Konkani language (which IIRC they wrote in the Latin script).

(*For Mizoram, Nagaland, and Manipur, I had them attached to Scottish Burma [Scotland being independent here; they partitioned Assam between themselves and England], as a reference to how Myanmar IOTL was largely run by Scotsmen, before they became independent separately from Burma in 1948; Dravida Nadu descended from a French South India with its capital at Pondichéry, and is a Malaysia-style federation of princely states, with Mysore, Hyderabad, and Travancore being the most prominent ones; Tamil Eelam seceded from Sri Lanka using Dravidian assistance; and Ladakh and Baltistan were conquered by the Qing dynasty in the Dogra-Tibetan War, becoming client states of Tibet until later regaining independence. Lastly, for Sikkim, I was less certain on how to do it, but the revolt against the Chogyal definitely needs to be stopped somehow)

Thanks

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

Thanks

You are welcome! Have a great day!

 

[sarsenapati]

I don't mind; I appreciate the response! Yeah, it's definitely hard as balls. But that's just how things are sometimes.

I think this is an interesting way to do it, and perhaps we can add Dravida Nadu to the equation to further reduce the possibility of Goa being annexed by India (since they're no longer the sole "claimant" to the territory now).

Konkani people, the ethnic group that inhabit Goa, are Indo-Europeans and not Dravidians, so Dravida Nadu would actually not have a claim on it.

 

[AlexanderDragon]

I have something similar in the timeline I'm writing up, a weaker India, a independent Madras Presidency(and the independent Hyderabad that comes with it, remember it also borders any dravidic state)closely aligned with Britain- and the British viewing any attack on Goa as a prelude to an attack on their own possession of Bombay.

The actual ethnic border is a bit to the south of Goa, but I don't see why the British of all people would suddenly gets qualms about drawing straight lines to support their interests.

 

[sarsenapati]

I have something similar in the timeline I'm writing up, a weaker India, a independent Madras Presidency(and the independent Hyderabad that comes with it, remember it also borders any dravidic state)closely aligned with Britain- and the British viewing any attack on Goa as a prelude to an attack on their own possession of Bombay.

The actual ethnic border is a bit to the south of Goa, but I don't see why the British of all people would suddenly gets qualms about drawing straight lines to support their interests.

You're making an India focused timeline? I'd love to hear more, please feel free to DM.

 

[TheWitheredStriker]

I have something similar in the timeline I'm writing up, a weaker India, a independent Madras Presidency(and the independent Hyderabad that comes with it, remember it also borders any dravidic state)closely aligned with Britain- and the British viewing any attack on Goa as a prelude to an attack on their own possession of Bombay.

The actual ethnic border is a bit to the south of Goa, but I don't see why the British of all people would suddenly gets qualms about drawing straight lines to support their interests.

Interesting! I second Sarsenapati, feel free to DM me with more details.

 

[Beacon]

Another prerequisite we would need is for joining India to be undesirable to Goa. Essentially, we need to ensure that even if a referendum took place, the Goans wouldn't vote to join India in the end. Goa would need to somehow be better off on its own (or as part of Portugal for a little longer) than within India. I've thought of some potential means to accomplish this. Perhaps India would be dominated by staunch Hindu nationalists rather than the INC, leading to Goa refusing entry into India out of fear that their unique Catholic identity, culture and beliefs would come under attack. Another idea I had was for India to go communist, which would certainly make the US and UK hell-bent on keeping Goa as part of Portugal, but the issue is that I have no slightest clue how to plausibly get India to become communist.

Goa still has an over 60% hindu population. For this to happen, first requirement would be that the portuguese forcibly convert the hindus living there. Not that they didn't try with the Goa Inquisition....

Also India during the Cold War had quite close ties with the Soviets so Portugal could convince the U.S. to support them diplomatically (especially if the Indians decide to invade) and the Soviets wouldn't consider Goa worth it to escalate the tension. You could put a competent leader in Goa(/the Portuguese are more interested in Goa) which transforms it in a sort of Hong Kong of India (this might have consequences on Macao) so the population of Goa would see the Indians as trying to massacre them and use them to make profit.

Both Soviets and USA were on an anti-colonial stint when India reconquered Goa. There's no way they would stop India if things were same as OTL. Even during OTL Portugal tried to use all its diplomatic powers to stop India. But both Goan people and Indian government wanted Goa to be free from Portuguese.