Drawing inspiration from past Ethiopia-wanks (via possibly an Ethiopian victory in the Abyssinian-Adal War thanks to Portuguese assistance, etc) as well as the idea of a Tigrinya state in OTL Eritrea (plus Tigray and part of the Afar region via a map from the rather obscure Agazian / Geez Nationalist movement below), the challenge is to have an Amharic Ethiopia dominate much of the Horn of Africa while a Tigrinya state still ends up being formed in the remaining part (maybe including Djibouti).
AHC/WI - Have Amharic and Tigrinya dominate Horn of Africa
- Thread starter Masked Grizzly
- Start date
Um... Doesn't a Amharic Ethiopia already control much of the horn? Intresting Idea. I will have to think about it.
Am defining an ATL Amharic Ethiopia as also including Somalia and Somaliland, additionally the Oromo form a slight majority in the area in OTL.
Essentially envision a scenario where Ethiopian Semitic languages dominate the area to form two states both with access to the sea.
Ok. Well, you need the Ethiopians to Force the Italians out of the horn of Africa after the Battle of adwa. This is very doable. This will allow the Ethiopian empire to control almost the entirety of the horn of africa. Make the Ethiopians take control of the Somali regions and Italy keeps Tigray Eritrea.
In doing this, Ethiopia Gains control of almost the entirety of the horn, while a distinctive Tigray identity is formed under the Italians.
Ok. Well, you need the Ethiopians to Force the Italians out of the horn of Africa after the Battle of adwa. This is very doable. This will allow the Ethiopian empire to control almost the entirety of the horn of africa. Make the Ethiopians take control of the Somali regions and Italy keeps Tigray Eritrea.
In doing this, Ethiopia Gains control of almost the entirety of the horn, while a distinctive Tigray identity is formed under the Italians.
I see.
So one possible early POD scenario would be an Ethiopian victory in the Abyssinian-Adal War thanks to Portuguese assistance, with the Ethiopians assisting the Portuguese against the Ajuran whereupon the Portuguese tenuously gain coastal areas like Mogadishu, etc for a time with the coast area being unstable until the arrival of the Italians, who while gaining Tigray Eritrea (and parts of Afar) and instilling an ATL Italian influenced Tigray / Agazian identity were ultimately pushed out of the rest of the Horn of Africa after the Battle of Adwa by the Ethiopians.
During that time a stronger Ethiopia is able to either redirect, butterfly away or assimilate the Oromo during their migration as well as attempt to assimilate other non-Geez groups in an Amharization / Geez-iation process, thereby potentially allowing Ethiopia to easily consolidate their gains upon pushing the Italians out in the Somali areas after the Battle of Adwa.
Or is there another approach involving a later POD as you already mentioned or at least a variation where the Ethiopians were able to assimilate the Oromo, Somali and others beforehand to more thoroughly demographically dominate the Horn of Africa up to Somalia / Somaliand?
Not sure how relations are between the Amhara and Tigrayan peoples in OTL, yet it would be fascinating to explore how they further diverge from each other (politically, economically, etc) along similar lines in ATL to OTL China and Japanese Taiwan / Taiwan, where one group is under colonial rule and another related group just manages to survive colonialism.
The Adali war... is an intresting POD. However, Didn't they win the war OTL thanks to Portugues assistance?
Ethiopian–Adal War - Wikipedia
The Adali war... is an intresting POD. However, Didn't they win the war OTL thanks to Portugues assistance?
Ethiopian–Adal War - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
It is something that was mentioned in previous threads (including one by myself from a few years back along similar lines), the premise would be rather than the outcome being status quo as existed before the war where the Ethiopians survive, the Ethiopians instead manage to be in a better position go on the offensive and expand a bit earlier on with Portuguese help (in gunpowder weapons, organization, etc to help consolidate royal power). Which will concede may or may not require an earlier POD.
For the sake of this thread however am envisioning Ethiopian success at minimum extending to being able to deal (and possibly even assimilate) the Oromo, with the ATL early collapse of Adal and Ajuran providing the Portuguese with a foothold before other European powers appear prior to the Italians.
Ethiopia's too weak after the war with Adal to be expanding anywhere seriously but a surviving Gelawdewos would do wonders for what you have in mind.
Really, if you want a spread of Tigrinya and Amharic, it'd be easier to go with an earlier Emperor like Amda Tseyon or Zara Yaqob who actually managed to carry out invasions of modern-day Somalia all the way to the Red Sea. The issue is making sure that the parts of the Horn you want under Ethiopia stay under Ethiopia, as opposed to OTL.
Really, if you want a spread of Tigrinya and Amharic, it'd be easier to go with an earlier Emperor like Amda Tseyon or Zara Yaqob who actually managed to carry out invasions of modern-day Somalia all the way to the Red Sea. The issue is making sure that the parts of the Horn you want under Ethiopia stay under Ethiopia, as opposed to OTL.
Is there anything the Portuguese could have contributed (e.g. gunpowder weapons, etc) to at least strengthen the Ethiopians enough against the Oromo invasions and place them in a stronger position for future expansion prior to the arrival of the Italians?
Would it have been possible for Adma Tseyon or Zara Yaqob or some decent successors to become the Ethiopian analogue of Qin Shi Huang in unifying the Horn of Africa for someone like Gelawdewos to later capitize on his predecessors successes in dominating the Horn of Africa?
Am open to the idea of both Ethiopian and Axum holding parts of Sudan via conquest / absorption of Alodia, Makuria or Nobatia up to OTL Khartoum as well as Suakin (that was originally a Christian Beja settlement) if it is indeed possible, leading to a situation where OTL Sudan is divided between Egypt, Ethiopia and ATL Tigray dominated Italian Eritrea (plus Tigraya, parts of Afar region, Djibouti). Similar to OTL plans for Sudan (plus South Sudan) to be divided between Egypt and Uganda.
Lisbon could've dispatched the skilled artisans and engineers that previous Emperors had requested but their presence might prove just as detrimental IOTL, what with the Jesuits attempting to transform Ethiopia into a Catholic country and horribly failing.
It's definitely possible for either of those Emperors to pull off something similar to Qin Shi Huang's unification of China and while I do see them expanding the Ethiopian frontier and continuing to do so with a consistent line of able successors, I don't think Ethiopia will really be able to go on to conquer the whole of the Horn but something could be done with Orthodox missionaries and pioneering settlers going further south as they did IOTL and establish communities/states to be brought into the Ethiopian fold.
It might just be doable for an ATL Ethiopian Qin Shi Huang to unify the Horn of Africa and successors managing to achieve the same or close enough (akin to Ashoka with the Indian subcontinent), otherwise agree ATL Ethiopia would not be able to maintain its hold on the whole of the Horn of Africa over the next few centuries even if Orthodox missionaries and Geez/Amharization is successful though so long as ATL Ethiopia manages to at least gain/retain access to the Arabian Sea, "Ethiopian Sea" (aka OTL Somali Sea) and Indian Ocean into the present.
Roughly how large do you see ATL Ethiopia becoming via expansion in Horn of Africa? Plus any additional territories in Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda and Kenya? Would it have been plausible for ATL Ethiopia / Axum to conquer/hold Socotra or once more invade Yemen a few more times prior to the Era of European Colonialism?
Interesting would be if they stretch also into Yemen. Historically Yemen and Ethiopoa/Eritrea had been in constant exchange. Many Yeminites are Habesha descendent, quite a lote Habeshas Yeminite Arab mixed.
Apart from the OTL Axum invasion of Himyar, am not sure if there were other opportune times where a ATL wanked Axum / Ethiopia could have successfully mounted invasions of Yemen (and into Hijaz or other parts of Arabia to a lesser degree).
There is also the intriguing notion of an ATL wanked Axum / Ethiopia capitalizing on a wanked Komnenian Restoration where it (along with possibly the Crusaders) basically help gang up on Egypt.
Given that even in OTL, medieval Ethiopia was expanding as far south as Bale and the Omo river, as well as into what is now Somaliland, an Ethiopian Qin Shi Huang/Ashoka could reasonably be more successful but that depends on circumstances and a line of good Emperors/government to oversee it all.
It'd probably be as large as OTL's Ethiopia but with Eritrea and considerable gains in northern Somalia and Kenya as certain Emperors wanted to claim. TTL's Ethiopia might end up snatching northern Yemen from a weakened Ottoman Empire some time down the line, as Japan did to China/Russia. You might see some clashing with the Omanis and expansion down to the Great Lakes as Ethiopia gradually replaces the Omanis in East Africa, though Ethiopia would probably attempt to cooperate with the Portuguese to some extent. They could also end up looking toward the Indian Ocean and establishing trade links - it'd be great to see earlier interactions with the Japanese but that's probably wishful thinking.
I wonder how likely this scenario is, Ethiopia to this day has a lot of "unassimilated" non-Afro-Asiatic people in the south and western border of the country, how come that is the case after centuries of Ethio-Semitic dominance of the highlands? Is it geography? Same goes also for the Afars surviving as such in the desert for so long, I seriously wonder what it would take for the Ethio-Semitic Ethiopians to overcome such geographic barriers and expand beyond the highlands in all directions.
Here is a very rough map of your outline of what ATL Ethiopia (prior to the Italians taking Eritrea, TIgray, parts of Afar and Djibouti) could have achieved with an analogue or few of Qin Shi Huang/Ashoka.
The Light Green areas are (an admittingly somewhat conservative) idea of what would have been potentially achieved under an Ethiopian Qin Shi Huang/Ashoka or few with a policy of Geez/Amharization/etc, not including any additional territories into Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, rest of Kenya, Great Lakes, Yemen/Arabia (plus Socotra), etc.
The Dark Green areas (sans aforementioned Italian ruled areas) are what ATL Ethiopia would likely retain where they manage to avoid being a landlocked country up to the present.
Not sure about plausible the following is yet what would have been pretty interesting is seeing ATL Ethiopia playing a larger role in reunifying the Nubian kingdoms of Alodia, Nobatia and Makuria into a single Neo Kingdom of Kush client / effective buffer state and possible ally between it and Egypt. Even better if it shares a border with South Sudan (albeit one that possibly includes a part of northern Uganda).
With the following OTL map on Menelik II's territorial/border claims in the Sudan in the aftermath of the defeat of the Mahdists at Omdurman in mind, could an ATL Ethiopia have plausibly been able to make the White Nile its westernmost border (or at least a part of the White Nile on the East Bank) at its greatest extent under an Ethiopian analogue of Ethiopian Qin Shi Huang/Ashoka or few?