WI - Ethiopia wins the Abyssinian–Adal war

What if the Ethiopian Empire (with help from the Portuguese) managed to win against the Adal Sultanate (and Ottoman Empire)?

And how would Ethiopian victory effect the Great Oromo migrations?
 
I suppose it depends on what the help was, and what it led to.

If the Portuguese were providing gunpowder weapons and organisation - it could both help them win, and then help with consolidating royal power, and with that, allow them to go on the offensive against the Oromo, and perhaps shatter those migrations.

It really depends on the character of Portuguese help - and the environment around it. If Ethiopia are able to produce/import gunpowder and create weapons - they'd be a great ally - able to secure the Gulf of Aden for Portugal, and expand down the coast.
 
If a victorious Ethiopia was able to produce/import gunpowder and create weapons, would it allow them to control all of the Horn of Africa along with parts of Sudan / South Sudan, Kenya and Uganda? How much further south could they realistically go prior to the Scramble for Africa?
 
If a victorious Ethiopia was able to produce/import gunpowder and create weapons, would it allow them to control all of the Horn of Africa along with parts of Sudan / South Sudan, Kenya and Uganda? How much further south could they realistically go prior to the Scramble for Africa?

Well, 300 years is a fair amount of time. I wouldn't discount the entire east coast if we're letting it become a wank. After all, there are no equivalent states. The big worry is if their northern neighbours get involved. I mean, the Mamluks and later Ottomans were a major deal for Ethiopia.
 
If a victorious Ethiopia was able to produce/import gunpowder and create weapons, would it allow them to control all of the Horn of Africa along with parts of Sudan / South Sudan, Kenya and Uganda? How much further south could they realistically go prior to the Scramble for Africa?

Ethiopia's core was and is the East African highlands where the climate is more temperate and agriculture more effective, so expanding into the Kenyan highlands would make sense.

Aside from that, vassalization or outright conquest of Yemeni and Somali Sultanates seems likely.

Has Ethiopia or Axum ever attempted to expand into Sudan?
 
Well, 300 years is a fair amount of time. I wouldn't discount the entire east coast if we're letting it become a wank. After all, there are no equivalent states. The big worry is if their northern neighbours get involved. I mean, the Mamluks and later Ottomans were a major deal for Ethiopia.

Tanzania and Zanzibar would probably the maximum southward extent, yet quite like the idea of Ethiopia managing to gain Socotra, Mayotte and Comoros Islands

Aside from that, vassalization or outright conquest of Yemeni and Somali Sultanates seems likely.

Has Ethiopia or Axum ever attempted to expand into Sudan?

Conquest of Somali Sultanates would be a given, though have to admit vassailization / conquest of Yemen and beyond is an interesting TL.

Not sure whether Ethiopia / Axum has ever attempted to expand westwards/northwards into the Sudan, it comes to mind as there were apparently significant Christian communities in the area and even the odd kingdom or few (though the latter recently ceased to exist a few decades prior to the Abyssinian-Adal war).

The entirety of the Sudan would be nice though at best hoping this ATL Ethiopia would roughly gain at most South Sudan, areas of the former Sennar Sultanate as well as the states of Kassala, Al Qadarif, so the remnant unconquered Sudan is basically a landlocked country that may or may not eventually be absorbed into Egypt (with much of Darfur becoming part of Chad).
 
Wellllll I do have a Islamic Ethiopia TL of events. I can see them Eventually expanding as far south as southern Tanzania. They can follow the Great Rift Valley from their heartland to the Kenyan highlands and Great Lakes. On the coast go for the Swahili states. Going any further south along the Mozambique Channel is going to be unattractive however due to water hazards.
 
Would the ATL Ethiopians be able to take advantage of any periods of instability in the Ottoman Empire to further expand into the Sudan or parts of Arabia, especially after the British occupation of Egypt in the aftermath of the Anglo-Egyptian war?
 

mad orc

Banned
If Ethiopia does conquer the Sudan, then it has no reason to be afraid of northern aggression(Read Egypt and Turkey) .At best, it would be a war of equals .
 
As much as I'm conflicted on Portuguese presence in the indian ocean, how about a successful capture of Aden in 1513. The Abbysian-Adal war starts in circa 1529, during that time Portugal could establish links with Ethiopia via Medri Bahri. So as soon as things start taking a turn we have an earlier Portuguese intervention against Adal and later the Ottomans. Ethiopia isn't cut off from the sea and links are maintained long term.
 
The Oromo migrations were heading to South Somalia but the Ajuran Sultanate forced them to reverse their migrations North to the Hararghe area. The Ajuran also warred with the Portugese as well so a earlier Portugese intervention might have the side-effect of allying the Adal-Ajuran kingdoms.
 
If the Portuguese do help the Ethiopians more significantly than OTL, they will definitely want a share of the land. It is possible they will be happy with control of the islands, albeit potentially handing at least some of the hard to defend ones to Ethiopia after the Portuguese empire's rapid decline begins. It'd be far more likely they will want at least a couple of continental ports. They might for instance want Mogadishu if and when Ethiopia goes after Ajuran (indeed, it might be more likely that Ethiopia is an ally called into a war between Portugal and Ajuran, with Ethiopia promised the hinterland in exchange). The European allies will probably be in a stronger position to demand a bigger share of the spoils in the earlier points though, so I'd expect at least one of Adal's ports would go to Portugal at least initially.
 
If the Ethiopians do manage to win the Abyssinian-Adal War, then perhaps the Ethiopian state can unify earlier and expand with assistance of Portugal. A Christian Ethiopian Empire will emerge under the House of Solomon where Muslims are either deported, forcibly converted and/or killed - same thing might go for the Ethiopian Jews in northwestern Ethiopia.
 
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