AHC:Washington DC: Swing "State"

[naraht]

OTL 2016 had Hilary taking 90.86% of the vote in Washington DC, Donald Trump took 4.09%, Gary Johnson 1.6% and Jill Stein 1.4%. It is not out of the question that Trump may finish third in Washington DC in 2020 (and still win the election).

Challenge: With a POD after 1950 have the following
1) The Citizens of the area of Washington DC get Electoral Votes in the US Presidential Election
2) In 2016/2020, each party's percentage of the vote in DC should be within 7% of the nationwide vote.

For #1, the current situation, DC Statehood or significant retrocession to either Maryland or Virginia is fine.

In the 2016 election, that would place them somewhere between Iowa and Oregon more or less.

Presumably this would be done by the parties ending up with different alliances, but I'll take odder.

 

[David T]

I know a lot of people say, "well, if only a strong civil rights bill had been passed under a Nixon who had won in 1960, Republicans would be competitive with the African American vote." (I realize that the African American percentage in Washington DC has been declining but it is still far too large for any party that does not do well with the African American vote to do well in the District.) I once explained why I didn't think that was adequate:

***
African Americans were voting heavily Democratic for three decades before the civil rights act of 1964. If Nixon gets a strong civil rights bill through Congress, it will be supported by northern Democrats though opposed by southern ones, and will not reverse the loyalty of African Americans in the North to the Democratic Party, which was based more on economic issues than civil rights. Indeed, Nixon took a stronger stand on the civil rights bill of 1957 than JFK but still overwhelmingly lost the Illinois First Congressional District--77.4%-22.0--and New York's 16th Congressional District.--77.1%-22.2%--in 1960. https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...up-in-american-politics.454831/#post-17809925 (These were easily the most heavily African American districts in the country, one being the heart of Chicago's South Side "black belt", the other being most of Harlem.)

 

[Minchandre]

Yeah, the real solution requires an earlier PoD to prevent the District rom becoming so black (making it a slave territory instead of free is likely the easiest). Or, later, I guess having them join the Great Migration, but they're already in a major urban center that isn't super Southern.

Aside from that, most whites in DC today are educated upper middle class folks - who tend to vote Democratic, and/or government workers - who tend to vote Democratic. A Nixon civil rights bill could help keep the former group Republican, but the latter group would need a Republican party that isn't small government and "fiscally responsible", which is hard (at least, hard to get them to stop saying that they are). Nixon healthcare would also help.

Another option: more military in the District.