AHC: Turkey joins the Axis in/by 1940

[Wesley_Lewt]

Honestly here is a problem I have with all of these 'Nazi go to the Med' threads, apart from the obvious which is Nazi Germany can't get what they want in the Mediterranean. Let's say they do take Gibraltar or Malta somehow.

Won't the British just take it back?

There was one side on WW2 with a long record of amphious successes and it wasn't the Axis. In fact, a book I was reading recently made an interesting statement. During the whole war, the only one amphibious assault was halted, contained and defeated and that was Dieppe was was basically a mega-raid. Even Anzio, the Allies held on and then won.

Britain will undertake an operation to take Gibraltar back and they will have way more advantages then Germany. It isn't as if Germany can resupply the Rock through Spain, unless we are just adding Franco to the Axis which just means German troops are spread even thinner.

With the Suez Canal in Axis hands and the straights of Gibraltar mined and full of U boats, with a huge Luftwaffe contingent in Gibraltar (which can be supplied by air) this will be hard.

Yes, eventually they probably would. But it would take time. Particularly had there been no Dunkirk evacuation.

Britain was not expecting attack in these places in 1940. Yes they do probably take it back in the end, but with Iwo Jima style losses.

 

[thaddeus]

Uh... instead of the winter war, the soviets do something stupid in turkey and that's still going on when shmidtler goes for barbarossa?

the Germans variously ignored or resisted any Soviet moves on Bulgaria and the Turkish Straits (during their period of cooperation), they might have been more strategic and stoked those ambitions?

there was also the half baked Iraqi coup which prompted the British to occupy Syria-Lebanon, that made a big impression on the Turks certainly? the Germans should have either stayed out of Syria or had more coherent plans.

 

[Sarthak]

There was a grand total of 0 people amenable to Nazism in the Turkish political theatre, even in a limited fashion like Bulgaria. Even Turkish fascists disliked Berlin and Rome, the latter due to historical enmity. The Turks, with the maybe exception of Northern Iraq, had little to no ambition in former ottoman lands. You need a war of independence PoD.

 

[Kalvan]

What is needed is the cultivation of a Pro-German clique among up-an-coming functionaries and mid-level military officers in Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's government, that can communicate freely with each other and the German Nazi Party but still have plausible deniability to Ataturk himself and his security, counterintelligence, and political enforcement apparatus, that can be ready to slide into power upon Ataturk's death, and be ready to join in on Operation Barbarossa the moment the tanks cross the Dniester and Western Bug on the vaguest promise of Mosul, Crete, Cyprus, Macedonia Thrace, Soviet Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan.

This sounds incredibly improbable. Not only is the concept of a Fascist International for its own sake a contradiction in terms, but culturally and politically there are much easier countries for the pre-Reichstag Fire "Nuremburg Movement" to try to infiltrate and puppet, places like the United Kingdom, Ireland, and yes, even Iceland and the United States. Except, they didn't really succeed there either, as neither Oswald Mosley nor D. C. Stephenson ever got within spitting distance of 10 Downing Street and 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, respectively.

The very National Socialist concept of Geopolitik makes the concept absolutely absurd. There's no way Himmler, Heidrich, Hoss, or even Rhoem would ever hold his nose and bend every available effort into making it work, let alone enough effort actually to make it work.

 

[DAv]

With the Suez Canal in Axis hands and the straights of Gibraltar mined and full of U boats, with a huge Luftwaffe contingent in Gibraltar (which can be supplied by air) this will be hard.

Yes, eventually they probably would. But it would take time. Particularly had there been no Dunkirk evacuation.

Britain was not expecting attack in these places in 1940. Yes they do probably take it back in the end, but with Iwo Jima style losses.

How are they going to find the logistics to take the Suez when they couldn't OTL? There were very good reasons why the Nazis failed to do so. Even if we go with Franco signing up with the Axis, what's going to happen when the food to Spain is cut off? The Germans couldn't fill that gap. Any Nazi attempt to take Gibraltar is going to have to fight through a country that's tearing itself apart to look for food and is likely to get some very experienced partisans giving it a rough time.

 

[spkaca]

Lost Monkeys and Broken Vehicles by @Lascaris is a good exploration of how to get an Axis Turkey with a plausible PoD. But it also involves a much stronger Allied Greece. These HoI-style ideas about massive German operations in the Med or Middle East all break down on close inspection, for the reasons others have set out; logistics, diplomacy, and Berlin’s lack of direct interest in the theatre.

 

[David Flin]

These HoI-style ideas about massive German operations in the Med or Middle East all break down on close inspection, for the reasons others have set out; logistics, diplomacy, and Berlin’s lack of direct interest in the theatre.

To these reasons, I would also add logistics and logistics.

It really is a fantasy to suggest massive German operations in the Med or Middle East.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

How are they going to find the logistics to take the Suez when they couldn't OTL?

The difference to OTL is Turkey and access therethrough.

Lost Monkeys and Broken Vehicles by @Lascaris is a good exploration of how to get an Axis Turkey with a plausible PoD. But it also involves a much stronger Allied Greece. T

Thankyou

These HoI-style ideas about massive German operations in the Med or Middle East all break down on close inspection, for the reasons others have set out; logistics, diplomacy, and Berlin’s lack of direct interest in the theatre.

Had to google HoI - apparently it is a videogame? Honestly the ideas I have brought up come from real german war plans and the things senior Nazi politicians said. If people on this forum think these people were deluded, then that is fine. But the scorn really isn't necessary given that they were some of the major actors in WW2. Not just talking to @spkaca but a great deal of the responses to some threads I made over the past few days.

They may have been terrible human beings. They may have been running on a toxic ideology that made them overconfident. They may not have had the benefit of hindsight and all the intelligence re their enemies now available to historians. But senior Nazi politicians and military planners knew WW2 better than any of us internet hobbyists.

The Germans planned massive operations in the middle east once Russia was dealt with. Source:

The Wages of Destruction – ADAM TOOZE

adamtooze.com

 

[Clandango]

The Turks already here then you can have it given to/taken by them. From Greece you can give the islands of Lesbos, Limnos, Samothrace, Chios, and Samos, as well as an agreement by the Germans and Italians to have the Greek populations deported to Europe. The Germans can also give them the part they occupied at the Turkish border, though possibly also including the little bit there that the Bulgarians occupied that wasn’t attached to the big chunk they annexed. Might be issues with the large Turkish and Pomaks population spread through Bulgaria if there were thoughts that the Turks might make land claims, though might not be anything major. According to Hitler’s Table Talks, questionable veracity though they may have, Hitler seemed to think Bulgarians were Turks due to the ancient Bulgars, so he might not think it an issue. Also, a really big thing for this all is if Turkey in the Axis means any difference to the treatment of Turkic groups by the Nazis or Soviets. I expect a couple tens of thousands die in massacres or deportations and that the Soviets liquidate even more near the borders, which they would have done anyways. If the Turks do by some miracle get a lot of extra land, they could populate it by people from the Soviets lands who were in areas the Nazis wanted and no the Soviets deported or only semi did. Depends if we are assuming the Axis does win here. And so it is not misunderstood, I don’t think the Turks would want annex any Soviet land, outside of maybe Adjara or Nakhchivan. Or Crimea, but so would the Romanians, Italians, or Bulgarians if given the offer. I don’t see any making requests on it, though. We can expect all the Circassians, Tartars, and Turks in the area to take part in some population exchange down the line.

 

[Garrison]

They may have been terrible human beings. They may have been running on a toxic ideology that made them overconfident. They may not have had the benefit of hindsight and all the intelligence re their enemies now available to historians. But senior Nazi politicians and military planners knew WW2 better than any of us internet hobbyists.

The Germans planned massive operations in the middle east once Russia was dealt with. Source:

The Wages of Destruction – ADAM TOOZE

adamtooze.com

I've read Wages of Destruction, indeed its one of the sources that I would invoke to dispute any claim Nazi politicians and military planners knew what they were doing, he's particularly harsh about the myths Albert Speer built up around himself.

 

[Clandango]

I've read Wages of Destruction, indeed its one of the sources that I would invoke to dispute any claim Nazi politicians and military planners knew what they were doing, he's particularly harsh about the myths Albert Speer built up around himself.

Yes, I read Speer’s book from a college library about halfway through before I started wondering suit the tone of it and looked on the binding. The publishes were named after some mythical German sword and had as their logo what was basically a swastika with one or two arms pointed in other directions.

 

[DAv]

The difference to OTL is Turkey and access therethrough.

Once again, how? The Nazis are going to have to send an entire army through the Balkans, through Turkey, down the Eastern Mediterranean, all in order to attack the British. How are they going to do this when most of their logistics depends on horse and cart? They're going to have to go through arid, if not desert areas at the end of completely non-existent supply lines while being under constant attack from the British and others who really don't want a Nazi army going through their land. You haven't solved any problem about logistics here, you've just added an impractical route to shove supplies through that are going to be incredibly vulnerable to even the slightest cock up even outside of external factors. Not even that, but there's one the Soviet Union is going to be watching this and laughing because their greatest enemy is sending an entire army out down south to death while they have the time to bring their own military up to fight them off.

Which is another point, the Nazis aren't really in the time or place to give enough of a damn about the Middle East when the Soviet Union was the one they wanted to attack and kill all the people in it. Why was all this time, effort, treasure and blood for something that isn't the main priority to them? Hitler and the high command were dead set on destroying the Soviet Union, this is placing a level of priority on North Africa that the Germans themselves never came close to having, despite the hindsight and arse-covering that a few of them attempted afterwards.

The Nazis were terrible planners and terrible at logistics. The fact that they took the time out in the middle of a struggle of a life and death war to commit genocide should tell you how well they planned these things. Just because they had ideas about what they were going to do doesn't mean that they would ever be in a position to accomplish them.

 

[Henry_Donda]

I mean Turks could help in the caucuses and seize Azeri Oil

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

Once again, how? The Nazis are going to have to send an entire army through the Balkans, through Turkey, down the Eastern Mediterranean, all in order to attack the British. How are they going to do this when most of their logistics depends on horse and cart.

By Rail.

the Soviet Union is going to be watching this and laughing because their greatest enemy is sending an entire army out down south to death while they have the time to bring their own military up to fight them off.

In 1940 the Nazis and Soviets had a non-aggression pact. The middle east is a softer target than the USSR (yes logistics arent easy but they are a lot easier than for the USSR). Attacking the middle east would allay Soviet fears re Nazi aggression.

Why was all this time, effort, treasure and blood for

Oil and denying the Suez Canal to The British as a way to force them to the table.

The Nazis were terrible planners and terrible at logistics. The fact that they took the time out in the middle of a struggle of a life and death war to commit genocide should tell you how well they planned these things.

Genocide meant less mouths to feed. The Nazis were suffering chronic and severe food insecurity. This was something they saw genocide as a solution to.

 

[David Flin]

I mean Turks could help in the caucuses and seize Azeri Oil

Question 1. Why would the Turks help the Nazis? What's in it for them?
Question 2. How much help would the Turkish forces actually be? There's a limit to what forces can be sustained, and that limit is very low when considering Turkish movements in the Caucuses. That is because logistical infrastructure is next to non-existent.
Question 3. Attacking in the Caucuses. Good luck with that.
Question 4. Why would Turkey help the Germans?

By Rail.

Rail. In Anatolia, 1940.

Taken from Raillynews, Turkish railways, Anatolia, 1940. The first picture is a map of rail lines in 1928. These had not been added to by 1940.

That's what you're using as your logistical support.

 

[Sarthak]

Question 2. How much help would the Turkish forces actually be? There's a limit to what forces can be sustained, and that limit is very low when considering Turkish movements in the Caucuses. That is because logistical infrastructure is next to non-existent.
Question 3. Attacking in the Caucuses. Good luck with that

To be completely fair, when the Turkish Army was mobilised in 1940, the Caucasian District Divisions were mobilised the fastest after The Straits Divisions. It would divert at least 150,000 Soviet troops into the region, which is not an insignificant amount at all and considering the transfer of the Georgian and Armenian divisions to hold the Nazis off in Southern Ukraine, could aid Germany's own offensives immensely. Vatutin theorised, backed by Zhukov that if the Turks could maintain 300,000 to 400,000 men on the border then they could make a successful push to Baku. Considering the Ottomans maintained 700,000 men on the Caucasus border with even less logistical support and base, such a number was not out of proportions and completely based in reality.

However, the problem as always is political. No one in the Turkish political scene was friendly to the Berlin Rome Axis after 1936.

 

[David Flin]

Vatutin theorised, backed by Zhukov that if the Turks could maintain 300,000 to 400,000 men on the border then they could make a successful push to Baku.

Problem area bolded. I'd like to see evidence that this was possible before I accepted it as viable. The Soviet Union didn't get to see the state of logistical infrastructure, so had to assume a worst case possibility.

 

[DAv]

By Rail.

In 1940 the Nazis and Soviets had a non-aggression pact. The middle east is a softer target than the USSR (yes logistics arent easy but they are a lot easier than for the USSR). Attacking the middle east would allay Soviet fears re Nazi aggression.

Oil and denying the Suez Canal to The British as a way to force them to the table.

Genocide meant less mouths to feed. The Nazis were suffering chronic and severe food insecurity. This was something they saw genocide as a solution to.

As @DavidFlin pointed out, rail isn't going to cut it. At all. To supply the forces needed for such an operation, that isn't close to anywhere what needed. Water, food, clothing, boots, weapons, oil, tanks, planes, bullets, carts, horses, medicine, soldiers, doctors, mechanics and so much more are needed on a huge scale for any kind of operation in the Middle East. They simply don't have the abilities to supply them to any great effect, never mind the inability to send the supplies needed to the soldiers if they even get there.

A non-aggression pact that the Nazis were jonesing to break. It was everything that they wanted. If attacking the Middle East might allay fears, because it means that the Nazis are cocking up on such a grand scale that the Soviet Union has time now to prepare its defences. Hitler is going to attack. That's his great goal and nothing is going to distract from it. And now the Nazis apparently have one of Russia's oldest enemies on their side. So there's a hostile enemy to the west and south now, don't think they might be considering that at all? And how are logistics easier to the Middle East, going through the Balkans, Turkey, Palestine and all the rest, building up an entire logistics chain from scratch, than through Eastern Europe with considerably less awkward terrain?

They don't have the ability to accomplish the latter, so there's no real way for them to gain the former. Especially since a lot of the oil needed is in the opposite direction to the Suez Canal.

Chronic food insecurity that they were responsible for thanks to their own bloodlust and inability to plan. Food insecurity that's going to get worse since they'll be pushing an army well past its logistical capabilities into the meatgrinder.

 

[Sarthak]

Problem area bolded. I'd like to see evidence that this was possible before I accepted it as viable. The Soviet Union didn't get to see the state of logistical infrastructure, so had to assume a worst case possibility.

The Ottomans maintained ~320,000 active soldiers at all times during Ww1 even with the absence of the Kayseri-Van Railway and the Trabzun Railway and the Kars Supply Depots and the Northern Caucasus Fortification Ring constructed by the Turks in the 20s and early 30s.

320,000 is the minimum number the Turks could maintain in the Caucasus just by looking at their performance in ww1. Higher population and higher logistical base than in 1918 means that over that number isn't a question of If and how, but when.

 

[Garrison]

By Rail.

In 1940 the Nazis and Soviets had a non-aggression pact. The middle east is a softer target than the USSR (yes logistics arent easy but they are a lot easier than for the USSR). Attacking the middle east would allay Soviet fears re Nazi aggression.

Ridiculous, both sides knew the non-aggression pact was nothing but a temporary truce and opening up another flank Germany could attack the USSR from is not going to allay Stalin's fears. Also this ramshackle plan to go the long way round to attack the Middle East would do little to address the fundamental resource issues afflicting Germany, there's nothing there barring some oil that they can hardly hope to transport to Germany. This is of course ignoring the ideological imperatives driving war in the East and if you are going advance Goering as some sort of improvement over Hitler then I would suggest you return to Wages of Destruction to get a sense of utterly unsuited hewas too high office.