AHC: Turkey joins the Axis in/by 1940

[Wesley_Lewt]

A challenge inspired by another thread.

If Turkey picked team Axis this would have changed a lot. Military access to the middle east. The Suez canal and Egypt fall. Axis get Egyptian and maybe some Saudi oil. Not to mention the options this would open up should the Axis go for Russia.

I gather that OTL Britain was paying Turkey a lot not to do this.

I present a scenario deemed implausible in other threads. Your challenge: come up with a plausible one.

Hitler dies during the fall of France. In the chaos where Goering takes power, the Dunkirk halt order is butterflied, no evacuation. Goering acts as he said he would have liked to at Nuremburg. He does some form of Operation Felix without Franco's consent expecting Franco to blink and try and preserve neutrality. He is as lucky as the Germans were in France. Malta and Gibraltar fall. Turkey decides they can be on the winning team joining the Axis by enabling a second front against Egypt and the Suez Canal. Goering offers them whatever they want (Cyprus, Syria, whatever can be taken from Britain)

Goering: The Mediterranean Strategy

The War Crimes testimony of Hermann Goering, illustrated, linked, and catagorized for easy reference.

gooring.tripod.com

 

[vizzer]

So what can Germany actually offer Turkey?

They don't have money & need all of their weapons themselves - perhaps Greece or more Ionian Islands maybe Cyprus if they don't want to give away Italian territory.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

So what can Germany actually offer Turkey?

They don't have money & need all of their weapons themselves - perhaps Greece or more Ionian Islands maybe Cyprus if they don't want to give away Italian territory.

Syria. Palestine. Some of Iraq. Any former Ottoman territory that can be taken from Britain. (though I expect Germany would want Egypt for themselves). Italy can have as much of East Africa as they can take once Egypt and the Suez Canal have fallen.

 

[Nivek]

Syria. Palestine. Some of Iraq. Any former Ottoman territory that can be taken from Britain. (though I expect Germany would want Egypt for themselves). Italy can have as much of East Africa as they can take once Egypt and the Suez Canal have fallen.

The Thing is Post Attaturk Turkey didn't care, plus they were happy to get the free money from Britain

 

[AltoRegnant]

Uh... instead of the winter war, the soviets do something stupid in turkey and that's still going on when shmidtler goes for barbarossa?

 

[pjmidd]

A challenge inspired by another thread.

If Turkey picked team Axis this would have changed a lot. Military access to the middle east. The Suez canal and Egypt fall. Axis get Egyptian and maybe some Saudi oil. Not to mention the options this would open up should the Axis go for Russia.

I gather that OTL Britain was paying Turkey a lot not to do this.

I present a scenario deemed implausible in other threads. Your challenge: come up with a plausible one.

Hitler dies during the fall of France. In the chaos where Goering takes power, the Dunkirk halt order is butterflied, no evacuation. Goering acts as he said he would have liked to at Nuremburg. He does some form of Operation Felix without Franco's consent expecting Franco to blink and try and preserve neutrality. He is as lucky as the Germans were in France. Malta and Gibraltar fall. Turkey decides they can be on the winning team joining the Axis by enabling a second front against Egypt and the Suez Canal. Goering offers them whatever they want (Cyprus, Syria, whatever can be taken from Britain)

Goering: The Mediterranean Strategy

The War Crimes testimony of Hermann Goering, illustrated, linked, and catagorized for easy reference.

gooring.tripod.com

Dial down the Wehrboo and actually look at the state of Turkey's military. There were very good reasons they stayed out, hint numbers mean jack if the equipment etc is lacking.

 

[Garrison]

Syria. Palestine. Some of Iraq. Any former Ottoman territory that can be taken from Britain. (though I expect Germany would want Egypt for themselves). Italy can have as much of East Africa as they can take once Egypt and the Suez Canal have fallen.

So a collection of things that they either don't have or can't offer given the terms of the treaty with Vichy and Turkey joining in does not provide the logistics needed to seize one extra metre of territory in the Middle East.

 

[Gar48]

Maybe if Turkey loses the War of Indipendence ? If they end up screwed as much as Germany and Hungary after WW1, this would explain why they want to join the Axis

Regarding the war... the military was in a worse state than the Italian army. They may be useful against Greece, meaning Germany has to deply fewer troops to assist Italy during its invasion of the country, but Turkish soldiers are going to discover why their fathers performed so poorly in the Caucus during WW1
The country also will likely face a British/American invasion from Iran if the country is invaded like OTL, arab and Kurdish resistance from Syria and Iraq if the army is actually able to conquer them (also the Germans have probably lost any potential ally in the region after promising old Ottoman lands to Ankara) and oh yeah Bulgaria and Italy won't be really upset if a country threatening their interests suffer a little in the war

I can see Turkey slowing down the Allies to the point nukes are deployed against Germany but i seriously doubt it can do anything to help the German war effort. Best case scenarioTurkey pulls a Finland/is occupied enterely by the Allies, while the worst one involves Stalin deciding the new SSRs in the Middle East need less Turks (read: deportation with no return to Siberia)

 

[Garrison]

Maybe if Turkey loses the War of Indipendence ? If they end up screwed as much as Germany and Hungary after WW1, this would explain why they want to join the Axis

Regarding the war... the military was in a worse state than the Italian army. They may be useful against Greece, meaning Germany has to deply fewer troops to assist Italy during its invasion of the country, but Turkish soldiers are going to discover why their fathers performed so poorly in the Caucus during WW1
The country also will likely face a British/American invasion from Iran if the country is invaded like OTL, arab and Kurdish resistance from Syria and Iraq if the army is actually able to conquer them (also the Germans have probably lost any potential ally in the region after promising old Ottoman lands to Ankara) and oh yeah Bulgaria and Italy won't be really upset if a country threatening their interests suffer a little in the war

I can see Turkey slowing down the Allies to the point nukes are deployed against Germany but i seriously doubt it can do anything to help the German war effort. Best case scenarioTurkey pulls a Finland/is occupied enterely by the Allies, while the worst one involves Stalin deciding the new SSRs in the Middle East need less Turks (read: deportation with no return to Siberia)

And in 1940 Germany has zero interest in the Middle East, they only got dragged into the region when Italy was comprehensively beaten by the British. In 1940 they are initially focused on Sealion and then on preparing for Barbarossa and if anyone wants to suggest they abandon either or both of those things be abandoned they will need an extraordinary POD, including reasons why Germany complicates its relations with Bulgaria, Italy and Vichy France for the non-existent gains of allying with Turkey, which in turn requires a major POD to get Turkey to be willing to gamble on Germany keeping its word for the first time ever about territorial claims.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

So a collection of things that they either don't have or can't offer given the terms of the treaty with Vichy and Turkey joining in does not provide the logistics needed to seize one extra metre of territory in the Middle East.

So my POD was Hitler dying during the fall of France before the treaty with Vichy meaning a different treaty with Vichy made by someone who cared more about the wider strategic/diplomatic situation and less about humiliating France.

Can German Troops really not cross Turkey to Syria in large numbers? Turkey did have functional railways (which IIRC the germans helped build).

Anyway this thread was not really aimed at discussing my POD/Scenario but asking others to come up with theirs.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

And in 1940 Germany has zero interest in the Middle East, they only got dragged into the region when Italy was comprehensively beaten by the British. In 1940 they are initially focused on Sealion and then on preparing for Barbarossa and if anyone wants to suggest they abandon either or both of those things be abandoned they will need an extraordinary POD

I did suggest an extraordinary POD - Hitler dying early 1940 during the fall of france before the peace, pre Vichy treaty and the ensuing chaos butterflying the Dunkirk halt order so no evacuation.

Goering would have been the successor. He said at Nuremburg he would have focused on the Med and middle east post fall of france. Maybe that was hindsight and not what he would have done, maybe it wasnt and was kinda truthful. Sealion could only ever flop. What else did Britain value that could be targeted? The Suez Canal. My POD was him doing roughly what he said he would have done in his Nuremburg testimony.

But honestly... I am more interested in the POD's theories and scenarios of others than discussing mine again.

 

[Fernan3451]

And in 1940 Germany has zero interest in the Middle East, they only got dragged into the region when Italy was comprehensively beaten by the British. In 1940 they are initially focused on Sealion and then on preparing for Barbarossa and if anyone wants to suggest they abandon either or both of those things be abandoned they will need an extraordinary POD, including reasons why Germany complicates its relations with Bulgaria, Italy and Vichy France for the non-existent gains of allying with Turkey, which in turn requires a major POD to get Turkey to be willing to gamble on Germany keeping its word for the first time ever about territorial claims.

Didn't Nazi Germany support the pro-Axis government in Iraq before being toppled by the UK?

Also, I think that they promised Turkey with gains in Syria and Iraq (and possibly gain some Aegean Islands) if they joined.

 

[nbcman]

A challenge inspired by another thread.

If Turkey picked team Axis this would have changed a lot. Military access to the middle east. The Suez canal and Egypt fall. Axis get Egyptian and maybe some Saudi oil. Not to mention the options this would open up should the Axis go for Russia.

I gather that OTL Britain was paying Turkey a lot not to do this.

I present a scenario deemed implausible in other threads. Your challenge: come up with a plausible one.

Hitler dies during the fall of France. In the chaos where Goering takes power, the Dunkirk halt order is butterflied, no evacuation. Goering acts as he said he would have liked to at Nuremburg. He does some form of Operation Felix without Franco's consent expecting Franco to blink and try and preserve neutrality. He is as lucky as the Germans were in France. Malta and Gibraltar fall. Turkey decides they can be on the winning team joining the Axis by enabling a second front against Egypt and the Suez Canal. Goering offers them whatever they want (Cyprus, Syria, whatever can be taken from Britain)

Goering: The Mediterranean Strategy

The War Crimes testimony of Hermann Goering, illustrated, linked, and catagorized for easy reference.

gooring.tripod.com

There was virtually no oil production in Egypt and Saudi Arabia in 1939. 666 ktons in Egypt along the Red Sea and 536 ktons in Saudi Arabia:

https://wayback.archive-it.org/6321/20160901222530/http://digital.library.northwestern.edu/league/le0277ah.pdf

Iraq had 4116 ktons and Iran had 10367 ktons in 1939. The implausible Axis are running past two larger sources of oil production to chase a couple of dribbles.

 

[Garrison]

So my POD was Hitler dying during the fall of France before the treaty with Vichy meaning a different treaty with Vichy made by someone who cared more about the wider strategic/diplomatic situation and less about humiliating France.

Can German Troops really not cross Turkey to Syria in large numbers? Turkey did have functional railways (which IIRC the germans helped build).

Anyway this thread was not really aimed at discussing my POD/Scenario but asking others to come up with theirs.

This has already been explained in the other thread where you brought it up, its just not practical and you are basing a lot of it on claims made long after the events by a completely unreliable source and the historical record suggests Goering was happy to try and bring Britain to its knees with the Luftwaffe. There is nothing to suggest he even thought about the Med until after the war and even then he was probably inspired by the outlandish ideas put forward by Rommel mostly to try and get more troops in the faint hope he could somehow reach Alexandria. You can phrase it as a challenge but I suspect a thorough search of the board would reveal all of these gambits have been looked at and a found wanting before.

 

[Garrison]

Didn't Nazi Germany support the pro-Axis government in Iraq before being toppled by the UK?

Also, I think that they promised Turkey with gains in Syria and Iraq (and possibly gain some Aegean Islands) if they joined.

Well Iraq was mischief making on Germany's part and their support amounted to 25 Luftwaffe aircraft that achieved nothing. They were mostly hoping the British would just roll over and accept the coup, which Wavell was willing to do, Churchill was not and the coup didn't last long. Look up the siege at RAF Habbaniya for a sense of how poor the Iraqi forces were. And if Germany did make those offers, which seems unlikely as it would probably have prompted the Vichy forces in Syria to switch sides, Turkey ignored them in OTL.

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

There was virtually no oil production in Egypt and Saudi Arabia in 1939. 666 ktons in Egypt along the Red Sea and 536 ktons in Saudi Arabia:

https://wayback.archive-it.org/6321/20160901222530/http://digital.library.northwestern.edu/league/le0277ah.pdf

Iraq had 4116 ktons and Iran had 10367 ktons in 1939. The implausible Axis are running past two larger sources of oil production to chase a couple of dribbles.

Egyptian oil was enough to fuel the RN in the Med which means enough for a functional Italian Navy.

Iraq and Iran are harder targets. How much of the production was in Northern Iraq? Because that could be siezed with Turkey in the Axis, further south, much harder.

 

[Gar48]

gyptian oil was enough to fuel the RN in the Med which means enough for a functional Italian Navy.

How is Turkey going to help in North Africa? Even if Vicky France gives Syria to Ankara, there is still British Palestine (you know the place full of jews not particularly happy at the idea of living under a member of the Axis) and Iraq in the middle. Pro-Axis leaders in these two countries will also be discredited by the fact Berlin made it perfectly clear i t has no interest in supporting their indipendence,

Heck Iraq and Saudi Arabia may join the Allies if they believe Turkey is putting their indipendence in danger

 

[Garrison]

How is Turkey going to help in North Africa? Even if Vicky France gives Syria to Ankara, there is still British Palestine (you know the place full of jews not particularly happy at the idea of living under a member of the Axis) and Iraq in the middle. Pro-Axis leaders in these two countries will also be discredited by the fact Berlin made it perfectly clear i t has no interest in supporting their indipendence,

Heck Iraq and Saudi Arabia may join the Allies if they believe Turkey is putting their indipendence in danger

And as I say as soon as word reached Syria about discussions for them to be handed over to Turkey I suspect the French administration there would go over to the Allies, not to mention Lebanon and possibly Tunisia and Algeria for that matter. They are in a much stronger position to do so than Indo-China was when Japan turned the screws,

 

[Wesley_Lewt]

How is Turkey going to help in North Africa? Even if Vicky France gives Syria to Ankara, there is still British Palestine (you know the place full of jews not particularly happy at the idea of living under a member of the Axis) and Iraq in the middle. Pro-Axis leaders in these two countries will also be discredited by the fact Berlin made it perfectly clear i t has no interest in supporting their indipendence,

Heck Iraq and Saudi Arabia may join the Allies if they believe Turkey is putting their indipendence in danger

Well, the Wehrmacht is going to move through Turkey in large numbers then Invade British Palestine.

 

[nbcman]

Egyptian oil was enough to fuel the RN in the Med which means enough for a functional Italian Navy.

Iraq and Iran are harder targets. How much of the production was in Northern Iraq? Because that could be siezed with Turkey in the Axis, further south, much harder.

No, it was processed Iranian and Iraqi oil that filled the oil tanks in Alexandria that the RN used.

Iraqi production in the early 1940s was in the north around Mosul and Kirkuk - but the pipelines for the oil went to Tripoli in the French controlled Levant (modern Lebanon) and Haifa in British controlled Palestine (modern Israel). So there's a lot of ground to capture to get to the wells plus the associated pipelines - and then the non-existent Axis tankers have to get from the ports in the Middle East back to Europe past the RN.