AHC: This Portuguese Empire

[AltoRegnant]

OTL, while Portugal was a big player on the world stage for its time (perhaps the fist true world player,) it nonetheless never quite reached this height. came short by a rather wide margin in fact, never having much more than Ceuta, failing to establish much in labrador/Canada, lost its spice trade influence to the dutch, never had anywhere near such a presence in India, and the less said about the pink (teal?) map the better. and I don't think they ever touched Hawaii.

So. with all of that in mind, how do we get Portugal to something approximating this size? I imagine we need a bit of a brit screw since Canada and India are stepping on the toes of London. Or perhaps a generally very early POD given morocco.

 

[lusitano 1996]

Idont know if its possible , portugal as such a small population

 

[Grey Wolf]

An alliance with Venice?

The need in the East is to defeat the Ottomans, in the Indian Ocean, but if they are defeated in Constantinople they are pretty much defeated everywhere

 

[AltoRegnant]

An alliance with Venice?

The need in the East is to defeat the Ottomans, in the Indian Ocean, but if they are defeated in Constantinople they are pretty much defeated everywhere

that could be interesting; maybe if it's early enough they take the sinai or something and effectively use it as the suez to really squeeze into India?

 

[Tabs]

The only one of these I can answer is Canada-just have them continue with their settlements in Newfoundland. I have no idea how to get them Indonesia, and the Pink Map is tricky but doable-someone smarter than me needs to answer it though.

 

[AltoRegnant]

What needs to happen for this level of prominence in india?

 

[pandizzy]

For that brazilian borders, then maybe miguel de la paz surviving kind of makes the treaty of tordesillas more lenien towards the division of the world

 

[Aluma]

If they let the convert tupi-guarani tribes in charge of the brazilian administration I could see them having enough men left to kick the dutch out of the Indies
Cant see them beating Spain for North Africa tho(that would take a Castille screw) or having interest in colonizing Canada(too far away from their trade routes and pretty cold) and going further into Africa(too many diseases) and they already got enough "free labour" from the areas they conquered IOTL

 

[Diego]

The real challenge is to conciliate the expansion of Brazil with the expansion of the Portuguese empire elsewhere, because you need to ditch Tordesillas to expand Brazil, and to expand the Portuguese Empire elsewhere you need to avoid the Iberian Union, but the easiest way to ditch Tordesillas is through the Iberian Union... anyway, it is hard, but not impossible.

Cant see them beating Spain for North Africa tho(that would take a Castille screw)

Portugal had exclusive rights of conquest over Morocco, and they had control over a good portion (something like 20%) of Morocco by 1510, they lost most of their possessions in the south after that, but they kept the northern possessions until the Iberian Union. By the late 16th century King Sebastian died trying to expand Portuguese control over Morocco.

Idont know if its possible , portugal as such a small population

It doesn't matter much, between all colonial powers Portugal was the one that sent more people abroad even though it was the less populated. Also when we talk about colonization efforts we are usually talking about sending hundreds of people abroad, not tens of thousands, rarely the few thousands. Anyway, I suggest you to read the TLs "Earlier Pemanent Settlement of New France" and "Portuguese North America: The Unlikely Colony" the work of Viriato and the discussions there certainly changed my way of thinking about the subject.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

The only way I can think of this working is a very client-heavy empire. Brazil is fine, Labrador is a bit unusual and I presume is only there because of fur trade, in which case the St. Lawrence valley and Newfoundland are probably the heart of it, with many client native tribes with a light-touch rule.

The Kongo and the Tamil are the big reason I'd expect it though. Kongo as a Portuguese Client isn't impossible, even if the reason for it seems confusing. The Tamil however, have always been relatively independently-minded and I expect wouldn't be easy to control if it was an outright conquest. But a client region? With the potential to be heart of the Portuguese Indian Ocean? That seems more plausible - and means that Portuguese traders can focus on the Cape route with Tamil traders doing the regional work.

Sadly I don't know enough of Portuguese history to suggest WHY this could happen.

 

[lusitano 1996]

The real challenge is to conciliate the expansion of Brazil with the expansion of the Portuguese empire elsewhere, because you need to ditch Tordesillas to expand Brazil, and to expand the Portuguese Empire elsewhere you need to avoid the Iberian Union, but the easiest way to ditch Tordesillas is through the Iberian Union... anyway, it is hard, but not impossible.



Portugal had exclusive rights of conquest over Morocco, and they had control over a good portion (something like 20%) of Morocco by 1510, they lost most of their possessions in the south after that, but they kept the northern possessions until the Iberian Union. By the late 16th century King Sebastian died trying to expand Portuguese control over Morocco.


It doesn't matter much, between all colonial powers Portugal was the one that sent more people abroad even though it was the less populated. Also when we talk about colonization efforts we are usually talking about sending hundreds of people abroad, not tens of thousands, rarely the few thousands. Anyway, I suggest you to read the TLs "Earlier Pemanent Settlement of New France" and "Portuguese North America: The Unlikely Colony" the work of Viriato and the discussions there certainly changed my way of thinking about the subject.

I like viriato s tl , but is population considerations always feel weid to me , i guess i like to go with the more conservative estimations , they feel more realistic to me .

 

[Lusitania]

Hm….

interesting, Portugal be having to rolling a lot of lucky 7 to do what you indicate.

1) you have kept Portugal iotl borders on the Iberian peninsula which makes it hard to do what you have suggested. I personally always been a big fan of incorporating Galicia and Leon into Portugal to give it the extra punch and strength.

2) castile/Spain; they always been the problem, a constant bogeyman who were beside themselves that Portugal stayed independent of their dream of a United Iberia. The Portuguese constant need to placate them such as the expulsion of Jews or agreeing to the treaty giving them control of majority of America’s and just the constant worry of Spain deciding to invade Portugal always plagued the Portuguese. It was a godsend that Spain involved itself in continental problems to really concentrate on Portugal.
Therefore a lot has to happen for Castile to be hobbled and it not be constantly a threat to Portugal.
if Portugal had gained both Galicia and Leon then went on to liberate Iberian peninsula south of Tejo (Taugus) River it would of captured part of Andalusia and been equal with Castile and had a more independent attitude and not worry about what Castile / Spain had demanded.

3) Morocco (ugh) this is a big job but not impossible. First you need a weaker Ottoman Empire that does not reach Algeria. If Egypt stays independent and stops Ottoman expansion into North Africa that would help. Secondly the Moroccans need stay fractured and Portugal vassalage one or both interior kingdoms while it consolidates along coast. How much it controls of the interior be debatable but with coast firmly in their control the interior can be controlled by making various smaller kingdoms vassals of Portugal which eventually might be incorporated into country.
Of course no Iberian Union that is a given.
At very least no Spain and Castile and Aragon stay independent of each other.

4) what we not know is if Portugal controls canaries,

5) no Portuguese presence in Guinea, Ivory Coast or Gold Coast? Not sure about this. A lot of Portuguese economic strength during the 15th century before India was based on the trade with natives along West Africa. I would of expected a bigger presence there along with Fernando Pó not lack of one.

6) Portuguese North America, possible and as indicated before this area prime area for strong colonial growth. Basically entire St Lawrence valley, New England and New York. Plus gulf of Lawrence and newfound land.

Ok a lot of things need be at play here. Whomever is to the south (France or Britain) needs be weaker plus it would mean they value Caribbean more and left north to Portuguese which also means a much stronger Portugal. Which with its European size makes me wonder (see #1).
Also means no treaty with Spain/Castile

6) Brazil - again this indicates no treaty with Castile and Brazil expand as it sees fit. I do not see why Portuguese not expand at least to north bank of the Rio Plata while lands south of there under Castile or other European control. We had colony in Uruguay for longest time. Only politics forced us to abandon them.
It would help if Portugal discovers Brazil before rest of Europe discovers Americas. Maybe no Columbus.

7) Angola to Mozambique means no British control over South Africa and dreams of expanding all way to Egypt.

8) India and Ceylon - means the Portuguese able to cement they control before rest of Europe arrives but it also means the Mongol empire and northern India are stronger since it seems we lost Bassein, Daman and Diu.

9) malacca and East Indies. Similar to India means Portugal consolidate its control before rest of Europe arrives and able to hold on to it. Although the islands to the east including Spice islands out of Portuguese control seems strange.

10) no Portuguese presence in China and Japan seems strange.

 

[Phalamus]

Well, let's see...

1. North America: not to difficult, just keep the OTL Newfoundland colony and have it grow gradually with time.
2. Morroco: I'm an eternal skeptic of Portuguese North African ventures. It was a huge money sink historically and frankly I cannot think of a way it could possibly have been anything other than that.
3. Africa: It's only really possible to go that far into the interior until the 19th century, but with some kind of briscrew it should be possible.
4. India and Southeast Asia: The only way is to have Albuquerque succeed in his mad dream in permanently cutting off Muslims from the Indian ocean coupled with a much delayed entry of other European powers into the game, leading to a very long period of uncontested Portuguese domination. Still, for there to be direct territorial occupation at that level you'd have to keep this hegemony until the 19th century....

 

[Aluma]

but with some kind of briscrew it should be possible.

How about the opposite?
Portugal and Britain had the "special relationship" for many centuries, if you could avoid the british going full protestant OR get the portuguese to join the reformation I think a union might be possible
Fast forward a few centuries and the Anglo-Portuguese Empire controls the area owned by OTL Portugal & Britain at the height of their power, it'd be a massive wank

 

[Phalamus]

The real challenge is to conciliate the expansion of Brazil with the expansion of the Portuguese empire elsewhere, because you need to ditch Tordesillas to expand Brazil, and to expand the Portuguese Empire elsewhere you need to avoid the Iberian Union, but the easiest way to ditch Tordesillas is through the Iberian Union...

Not really. Tordesillas was never ditched at all (not until the Treaty of Madrid in 1750) and the expansion of Brazil beyond the Tordesillas line started before the Iberian union and continued after. It was mostly the result of the natural increase of the lusophone population in Brazil and I don't believe the Spanish actually ever said "yeah, we're OK with it". They just reasoned that suppressing organized bandeirantes incursion would be a massive investment and probably not really worth it (keep in mind that Spain was way overstretched in the 17th century). Plus, the Portuguese could just bring up the Philippines and that would open a whole can of worms.

Exceptions to tordesillas happened when one side basically just stepped in to occupy the land and hoped the other wouldn't bother to object. They were not a direct result of the Iberian Union or of any sort of diplomatic understanding.

How about the opposite?
Portugal and Britain had the "special relationship" for many centuries, if you could avoid the british going full protestant OR get the portuguese to join the reformation I think a union might be possible
Fast forward a few centuries and the Anglo-Portuguese Empire controls the area owned by OTL Portugal & Britain at the height of their power, it'd be a massive wank

I mean, it could be interesting, but personal unions have problems and it should go without saying that colonial empires would have to remain separate to matter what.

 

[Lusitania]

Well, let's see...

1. North America: not to difficult, just keep the OTL Newfoundland colony and have it grow gradually with time.
2. Morroco: I'm an eternal skeptic of Portuguese North African ventures. It was a huge money sink historically and frankly I cannot think of a way it could possibly have been anything other than that.
3. Africa: It's only really possible to go that far into the interior until the 19th century, but with some kind of briscrew it should be possible.
4. India and Southeast Asia: The only way is to have Albuquerque succeed in his mad dream in permanently cutting off Muslims from the Indian ocean coupled with a much delayed entry of other European powers into the game, leading to a very long period of uncontested Portuguese domination. Still, for there to be direct territorial occupation at that level you'd have to keep this hegemony until the 19th century....

The big thing is the empire looks more like a 19th century / early 20th century than anything earlier.

North Africa - the only way possible is a more internally divided Morocco with several competing kingdoms and no substantial Ottoman intervention.

What we don’t know is if in Morocco, Africa and South east Asia how many protectorates, vassals exist and are included in Portuguese territory.

As for Índia we need a weaker Ottoman Empire and to cut the Muslims off from India and east Asia you need control Oman and Aden (Red Sea) which we not see. Maybe they controlled it earlier in the 16-18 century but by 19th century no longer.

 

[AltoRegnant]

In general, I didnt differentiate between protectorates/vassals and annexed land. Meaning theres basically as many as one feels is needed. But yeah this is meant to be a 19th century empire

India and Ceylon - means the Portuguese able to cement they control before rest of Europe arrives but it also means the Mongol empire and northern India are stronger since it seems we lost Bassein, Daman and Diu.

Tbh the only major Portuguese outpost in india I knew off the top was Goa (and ceylon for a bit) so that's what I went with

9) malacca and East Indies. Similar to India means Portugal consolidate its control before rest of Europe arrives and able to hold on to it. Although the islands to the east including Spice islands out of Portuguese control seems strange.

Noted on the eastern islands

10) no Portuguese presence in China and Japan seems strange.

Ignore me completely forgetting about macau.

Oh, and since it seems ttl has to be a brit and spain screw, does that mean france and the netherlands are the main competitors?

 

[Lusitania]

In general, I didnt differentiate between protectorates/vassals and annexed land. Meaning theres basically as many as one feels is needed. But yeah this is meant to be a 19th century empire



Tbh the only major Portuguese outpost in india I knew off the top was Goa (and ceylon for a bit) so that's what I went with


Noted on the eastern islands


Ignore me completely forgetting about macau.

Oh, and since it seems ttl has to be a brit and spain screw, does that mean france and the netherlands are the main competitors?

If you google Portuguese India you can see several enclaves north of Goa. Also the size of Goa I think would of increased over time even larger than iotl.

As several posters have indicated the Portuguese would of needed to cut the Muslim traders from India and east Asia. To do that Aden would of needed to be captured and used to cut Red Sea from India ocean plus capture and securing Oman which included Zanzibar be important to domination of Indian Ocean and East Indies.

In terms of size as I indicated in previous post is. bit hard to do as you indicated with current size. Expansion is crucial even if you only add Galicia or some border areas from Leon /Castile on the Iberian sid. They not be huge task. D Henriques had captured almost all of Galicia but had to return them when his heir was captured at cidade Rodrigo. Have Sancho not be captured but also able to conquer cidade Rodrigo then you start Portugal much stronger. As for Leon and border cities like Badajoz have Portugal intervene in Leon succession and split country with Castile or take it all this leaving Portugal stronger and less threatened by Castile.

As for competitors. It is really upto you. You can have Spain exist or keep both Castile and Aragon independent (crazy one is Portuguese king inherit Aragon throne. Keeping Castile in between them and docile.)

Castile / Spain can still become embroiled in European affairs and be more successful in controlling while same time preoccupied with Holland.

as for France they had an aversion to sending settlers out and were more interested in $. So allow then the St Pierre and Michael islands off Newfoundland and access to Grand Banks while they concentrate on Caribbean and sugar plantations.

England can split North America with portugal and use the Hudson or similar river as border. They also concentrate on the southern colonies and Caribbean and even in future go to lands south of Rio de la plata.

castile/ Spain could still reach Caribbean but the success or lack of success against Inca and Aztec would greatly reduce their income and power. The Portuguese with Brazil for sugar, tobacco would leave southern US and Caribbean to be fought between England, France and Castile/Spain.

the ability of Portugal to retain its rich Jewish population / traders weakens ottoman and without an independent Dutch Portugal has extra 50 years in Indian Ocean before competition.

 

[Tanc49]

We could cheat a bit with a strong Dutch Portuguese alliance.
Say there is no union of crowns but still a Dutch rebellion. A good way for the Dutch to screw with Spain would be to support Portuguese colonialism.
For example there is a VoC with some of the shares going to the Estado da India, or the reverse with big Dutch investment in a more open Estado, they wouldn't have to spend that much money trying to fight the Portuguese in the East and West, and you'd get Dutch colonists there too.
Portugal did after all have massive ties with Antwerp, before all the Antwerpian merchants went up North after the sacking

 

[AltoRegnant]

would a Portuguese Persian alliance against the ottomans be on the cards, or was Portugal still too zealous when Persia was in a position to mess with the ottomans?