AHC: Swap the fates of Rhodesia and (Apartheid) South Africa

ajdb0614

ajdb0614

With a POD after the Rhodesia's Unilateral Declaration of Independence in 1965, what could've happened or been done to reverse the historical fates of southern Africa's two White-ruled states?

For this challenge:
  • Rhodesia has to peacefully transition to Majority-rule under a sane and moderate government. One which does not kick out the Whites; does not run the country's economy into the ground; and is absolutely under any circumstances not run by a megalomaniacal despot. Level of corruption may vary, but never to OTL Mugabe levels - for all its faults this Alternate Rhodesia (Zimbabwe?) is still a functioning multi-ethnic democracy.
  • Meanwhile in South Africa, things have to go to crap. A brutal insurgency breaks out, and eventually the Apartheid government is forced to negotiate with the African rebels. The Majority-rule government that follows then falls under the control of a kleptocratic dictator who proceeds to act like a Robert Mugabe-expy. This would mean seizing White farms/businesses and kicking out the Europeans; corruption and nepotism aplenty; and optionally ridiculous inflation too.
How could the above be achieved? Would Rhodesia still rename itself to Zimbabwe? Stick with Zimbabwe-Rhodesia? And would South Africa undergo a similar name change?
 
Cuāuhtemōc

Cuāuhtemōc

Banned
Isn't it more likely that South Africa would balkanize in that scenario? There's a large enough white population to simply withdraw to the Cape and hunker down.
 

Mackus

Peaceful solution in Rhodesia would require very little. Democratically elected government of prime minister Abel Muzorewa would have to refuse to bow to western demands to organize new elections immediately after ones that elected him to power. If Mugabe decided to challenge government, Rhodesian Army would execute operation Quartz, and smash the ZANU-PF.
People voted, observers admitted the elections were fair. Government was legitimate by any democratic standards, UKs diktat had no leg to stand on.

Cuāuhtemōc said:
Isn't it more likely that South Africa would balkanize in that scenario? There's a large enough white population to simply withdraw to the Cape and hunker down.
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Yes. And they unlike Rhodesia, SA had a lot of heavy military equipment. In its last years, even nukes.
 

Ato

Cuāuhtemōc said:
Isn't it more likely that South Africa would balkanize in that scenario? There's a large enough white population to simply withdraw to the Cape and hunker down.
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I could see a mass evacuation to the southwest being referred to as the 'Second Great Trek'
 
Aisha Clan-Clan

Aisha Clan-Clan

Wouldn't we just see a split of South Africa into 3 pieces in this scenario? The western third or so for the Boers/Coloreds/English, Natal for zulus and some godawful even for sub saharan africa "Afircan People's Democratic Workers Republic of Azania" for the rest.
 

overoceans

Whiteshore said:
I'd imagine they'd rename their country to "Azania" or something like that.
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I remember that very name being suggested. And also that when Mandela came to power, he expressed doubt about the wisdom of a name-change. Specifically used to phrase "far-fetched" to describe the idea.
 

samcster94

Banned
overoceans said:
I remember that very name being suggested. And also that when Mandela came to power, he expressed doubt about the wisdom of a name-change. Specifically used to phrase "far-fetched" to describe the idea.
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Then again, some paranoid militant would be running "the Azanian Democratic Republic",which is vaguely Communist(but more African nationalist), but is really a one man dictatorship.
 
ajdb0614

ajdb0614

Concerning South Africa's fate ITTL, would the Rivonia trial sentencing Mandela to death eventually lead to an anti-Apartheid insurgency?
 

overoceans

samcster94 said:
Then again, some paranoid militant would be running "the Azanian Democratic Republic",which is vaguely Communist(but more African nationalist), but is really a one man dictatorship.
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I could see a nationalist one-man dictatorship liking the post-apartheid flag, which Mandela obviously endorsed as well.

Not that I dislike the new flag; helluvan improvement over the old one, with its awkward slap-on of three different flags, two of them having virtually no familiarity to anyone outside of South Africa.
 

Seandineen

Indeed it would. I see mangope’s bophatswana surviving without the a.w.b. Possibly Transkei in alliance with the colored rump state.
 

Seandineen

Mackus said:
Peaceful solution in Rhodesia would require very little. Democratically elected government of prime minister Abel Muzorewa would have to refuse to bow to western demands to organize new elections immediately after ones that elected him to power. If Mugabe decided to challenge government, Rhodesian Army would execute operation Quartz, and smash the ZANU-PF.
People voted, observers admitted the elections were fair. Government was legitimate by any democratic standards, UKs diktat had no leg to stand on.


Yes. And they unlike Rhodesia, SA had a lot of heavy military equipment. In its last years, even nukes.
Click to expand...
Nkomo might even compromise with Abel muzorewa. Jerimiah chirau would have a bigger role to play, he won’t be marginalized.
 
Lenwe

Lenwe

Mackus said:
Peaceful solution in Rhodesia would require very little. Democratically elected government of prime minister Abel Muzorewa would have to refuse to bow to western demands to organize new elections immediately after ones that elected him to power. If Mugabe decided to challenge government, Rhodesian Army would execute operation Quartz, and smash the ZANU-PF.
People voted, observers admitted the elections were fair. Government was legitimate by any democratic standards, UKs diktat had no leg to stand on.
Click to expand...
So the Botswana route? or maybe the Namibia Route? but for The Namibia route you need that a more involved and interventionist South Africa, maybe that is the Straw that broke the Camel Back and you get a Balkanized South Africa. To make a more generalized armed black resistance to the Afrikaners rule of all south Africa, and with more support of neighborhood black population(Mozambique and Angola fearing the Portuguese adopting similar system, Zambia, Malawi and Botswana fearing for teir independence and even Tanzania support).
its only and idea that Stuck on me
 

Burton K Wheeler

Moderator
Mackus said:
Peaceful solution in Rhodesia would require very little. Democratically elected government of prime minister Abel Muzorewa would have to refuse to bow to western demands to organize new elections immediately after ones that elected him to power. If Mugabe decided to challenge government, Rhodesian Army would execute operation Quartz, and smash the ZANU-PF.
People voted, observers admitted the elections were fair. Government was legitimate by any democratic standards, UKs diktat had no leg to stand on.

Yes. And they unlike Rhodesia, SA had a lot of heavy military equipment. In its last years, even nukes.
Click to expand...

How do you get Muzorewa to win? He got absolutely blown out in the election. Any attempt to suppress ZAPU and ZANU will just reignite the civil war, and there wasn’t much of a moderate constituency left for UANC.
 

Mackus

Burton K Wheeler said:
How do you get Muzorewa to win? He got absolutely blown out in the election. Any attempt to suppress ZAPU and ZANU will just reignite the civil war, and there wasn’t much of a moderate constituency left for UANC.
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His party UANC got 51% of seats majority in 1979 elections, 71% if you don't count white roll seats.
By any democratic standard he'd form government, and he did.
 
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