AHC/PC : if westward is blocked, could the US expand northward and annex N.Brunswick & Scotia ?

[Jfoul]

I'm not too familiar regarding the local balance of power in early/mid 19th century between the USA and British Canada, but if the US had external factors limiting their expansion westward (e.g. Mississipi Basin heavily settled by the Spanish, or First Nations still densely populating the Midwest), then would they consider going for neighbouring Canadian territories such as New Brunswick and Nova Scotia? And would they be in capacity to annex them?

I guess the War of 1812 would be a key opportunity for this, and in that sense, with the West being off-limits, would the US have seen this war as a major possibility of expansion/conquest?

Otherwise, would there have been other opportunities further down in the 19th century?

 

[von Adler]

I'm not too familiar regarding the local balance of power in early/mid 19th century between the USA and British Canada, but if the US had external factors limiting their expansion westward (e.g. Mississipi Basin heavily settled by the Spanish, or First Nations still densely populating the Midwest), then would they consider going for neighbouring Canadian territories such as New Brunswick and Nova Scotia? And would they be in capacity to annex them?

I guess the War of 1812 would be a key opportunity for this, and in that sense, with the West being off-limits, would the US have seen this war as a major possibility of expansion/conquest?

Otherwise, would there have been other opportunities further down in the 19th century?

1812 was the only viable chance the US had to take Canada before 1918. Between that the balance of power, both hard and soft are on Britain's side. The US simply lacked the political will to create the large navy and the standing army needed to take on Britain in this era, and neither the Crimean War nor the Sepoy rising were as large distractions as the Napoleonic war were.

 

[Mike Stearns]

1812 was the only viable chance the US had to take Canada before 1918. Between that the balance of power, both hard and soft are on Britain's side. The US simply lacked the political will to create the large navy and the standing army needed to take on Britain in this era, and neither the Crimean War nor the Sepoy rising were as large distractions as the Napoleonic war were.

The British were also careful not to antagonize the Americans or their remaining North American possessions in order to keep their prescience in North America, the aftermath of the Rebellion of 1837 being a good example of this. In short, the British would have to take complete and total leave of their senses in order to allow themselves to be entirely pushed out of North America and they were smarter than that.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

1775 and 1812 were sharp lessons about the perils of northwards expansion, the only other time it was conceivable was in 1838 when tensions were high following an internal rebellion in Canada which precipitated a series of cross border raids and attacks which caused each side to view the other with the utmost suspicion.

However, expansion into Nova Scotia and New Brunswick should be considered a distinct impossibility. The Maine-New Brunswick frontier is vast and beyond the coasts absurdly difficult to supply an army through (Arnold lost nearly half his force trekking through Maine in 1775 to reach Quebec) and neither side really has the local build up pre 1860s to justify any kind of real campaign there.

Nova Scotia is protected by the Royal Navy, which ought to render the issue there moot from the get go.

The only other northwards expansion would be if the US looked to purchase Rupert's Land (the modern Canadian prairie provinces and North West Territories) from the Hudson's Bay Company. Say for some reason, Canadian Confederation fails and Britain has no desire to purchase or govern the territory. An enterprising American government could try and buy it, thus getting a huge northern frontier and a 'back door' expansion into the West. A double whammy scenario.

 

[PuffyClouds]

I'm not too familiar regarding the local balance of power in early/mid 19th century between the USA and British Canada, but if the US had external factors limiting their expansion westward (e.g. Mississipi Basin heavily settled by the Spanish, or First Nations still densely populating the Midwest), then would they consider going for neighbouring Canadian territories such as New Brunswick and Nova Scotia? And would they be in capacity to annex them?

I guess the War of 1812 would be a key opportunity for this, and in that sense, with the West being off-limits, would the US have seen this war as a major possibility of expansion/conquest?

Otherwise, would there have been other opportunities further down in the 19th century?

Do the Americans have New Orleans in your proposal?

 

[Jfoul]

Do the Americans have New Orleans in your proposal?

Nope, their frontier stops before the Mississippi, so that's why I wonder where they may turn to if going West is not feasible...

However, expansion into Nova Scotia and New Brunswick should be considered a distinct impossibility. The Maine-New Brunswick frontier is vast and beyond the coasts absurdly difficult to supply an army through (Arnold lost nearly half his force trekking through Maine in 1775 to reach Quebec) and neither side really has the local build up pre 1860s to justify any kind of real campaign there.

Thanks for this info! I don't know much about the specificities of the local terrain so that would make sense indeed.

The only other northwards expansion would be if the US looked to purchase Rupert's Land (the modern Canadian prairie provinces and North West Territories) from the Hudson's Bay Company. Say for some reason, Canadian Confederation fails and Britain has no desire to purchase or govern the territory. An enterprising American government could try and buy it, thus getting a huge northern frontier and a 'back door' expansion into the West. A double whammy scenario.

A bold plan for sure, but defo an interesting possibility ! I had always assumed Canada to be fairly united from the onset, so that TL could make for a very different map of North America.

 

[PuffyClouds]

Do the Americans have New Orleans in your proposal?

Nope, their frontier stops before the Mississippi, so that's why I wonder where they may turn to if going West is not feasible...

The Deep South Plantation culture really wants to expand into Texas, but Georgia doesn't need to be a slave state for the American Revolution to happen. That expansion could be entirely yeoman and sharecroppers. Settlements in the Apalachicola, Mobile, Pascagoula, and Pearl River Drainage Basins don't need the control of New Orleans, but they do need West Florida.

Getting access to the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys were fundamental components for the American Revolution. If the Americans can get over the Appalachian Mountains then they will push to the Mississippi River. If the Americans get access to the Mississippi River then they would be willing to fight a war to dominate New Orleans and the immediate flood plain of the Mississippi River. If Americans have control of the Lower Mississippi River then there is no geographical feature obstructing access to the Rocky Mountains.

The most likely differences are that the Iroquois become even more powerful in the Fingers Lake Region in the 1790s than they were in the 1770s, and the Americans are incapable of defeating the Western Confederacy. Those situations probably mean that the British are even stronger in that part of North America than OTL. But the Western Confederacy isn't going to be able to project power into West Virginia, southern Kentucky, nor Tennessee indefinitely. The Americans (the Scotch-Irish in particular) won't just stay in the Tennessee River Valley either, they will spread out. To prevent Americans going through those areas, you need American self regulation. That "regulation" in Appalachia is going to be a real sore spot, lots of rebelliousness over that.

This sounds like the United Kingdom negotiated a treaty of secession with the Continental Congress. In such a situation, the New England Yankees aren't going to want to invade into Quebec or Nova Scotia. If relations with the Western Confederacy or the Iroquois become too antagonistic for the Americans then there will be war mongering in New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. The Yankee state governments may say to their people going over to settle in the NW frontier "oh well, you knew better, we had a treaty, tough luck."

Americans will move into Canada, first the Loyalist, but then the separatists and at greater levels than OTL. That does have the potential for civil strife and war. Eventually the British/Canadian/American settler wave will move into Cascadia. Maybe an earlier, looser, Commonwealth.