The problem is that OTL Protestantism in Hungary was Reformed, not Lutheran. How does one get Lutheranism there? And there are very significant differences - Lutheranism retains priesthood and bishops, also church art. Reformed has only ministers and considers church art idolatrous. (Huguenots and English Puritans destroyed stained glass windows, for instance.)
Lutheranism arrived before Calvinism, but was replaced by Calvinism with the exception of in Upper Hungary (Slovakia) and among the German minority in Transylvania which stayed Lutheran until the Habsburg rooted it out. So you want a Lutheran Hungary, simply keep Hungary from falling to the Ottoman in the short term and have a Hungarian king adopt Lutheranism, if Hungary fall a few decades later after having becomes Lutheran, the faith would likely survive, as it would take over the Catholic institution, which would make recatholization harder, even if the Austrians succeed in conquering Hungary from the Ottomans. A major reason for the ease of the Habsburg conversion of their conquered territories was because they kept and funded the local Catholic institution in exile, which meant when the Austrians reconquered a area, the religious institutions could simply move in again. If these institution have been converted, it’s much harder to reestablish Catholic version of them. A really interesting aspect will be among the Yugoslavs, the Croats of Croatian proper and Slavonia becomes Lutherans, we will see a split from the Istrian, Dalmatian and Bosnian Croats who stay Catholics. The result will likely be that different Yugoslavian national identities. We will see the Istrians likely develop their own identity or become Slovenes. The Catholic Croats will likely name themselves after the old Catholic Bosnian kingdom, while the Muslim Bosniaks will likely look after a new name.