With a POD during WWII, have Japan retain Taiwan while losing Korea after the war. This needs to remain even after the ROC government has evacuated to Taiwan.
AHC: Japan loses Korea, retains Taiwan
- Thread starter zeppelinair
- Start date
The main problem with that is that if the ROC government evacuates to what's still Japanese territory in Taiwan, they'll lose all credibility with the mainlanders (not that they had much) and will have to give up on retaking the mainland.
You might as well have them flee to Hong Kong or the US and form a government in exile there. Although the US and UK are still demonized as imperialists by the communists, fleeing to Japanese territory is illogical and idiotic considering the nasty memories of WWII that are still very fresh in the minds of the people.
There are a few places the ROC government can retreat to. The closest analogue to Taiwan is Hainan, though being part of the mainland, there is a festering communist insurgency that they need to root out. Other than that, they could continue to hold out there, though it's likely they'll face constant attacks by the PRC Penghu-style.
Other governments in exile include Southeast Asia, hiding out in Thailand and Myanmar and inciting revolts at the border. The problem with that is that they're essentially infringing on their hosts' sovereignty, something that was already an issue IOTL.
Also, as stated, they could flee to Macau or Hong Kong, where the communists can't pursue them without triggering a war with the Allies.
In the end though, all these scenarios will likely result in the complete destruction of Nationalist rule in China, and the faster recognition of the PRC as the sole successor. Really, Chiang won't survive nearly as long in any of those scenarios.
As for Taiwan, who knows. Its unique status as Japan's only non-Japanese home island might help ease the xenophobic tendencies of OTL's government, or excerbate them. I'd think the former would be more likely. If Tokyo tries to pull the alien registration stunt, we could see Taiwanese screaming for independence.
Other governments in exile include Southeast Asia, hiding out in Thailand and Myanmar and inciting revolts at the border. The problem with that is that they're essentially infringing on their hosts' sovereignty, something that was already an issue IOTL.
Also, as stated, they could flee to Macau or Hong Kong, where the communists can't pursue them without triggering a war with the Allies.
In the end though, all these scenarios will likely result in the complete destruction of Nationalist rule in China, and the faster recognition of the PRC as the sole successor. Really, Chiang won't survive nearly as long in any of those scenarios.
As for Taiwan, who knows. Its unique status as Japan's only non-Japanese home island might help ease the xenophobic tendencies of OTL's government, or excerbate them. I'd think the former would be more likely. If Tokyo tries to pull the alien registration stunt, we could see Taiwanese screaming for independence.
How on earth is Japan keeping ANY conquered territory after Pearl Harbor?!?! (Which is what I assume you mean by 'PoD during WWII').
OTOH, if 'WWII' starts in 1939 (which is a relatively meaningless date for Japan) then they can keep Taiwan, maybe.
Have Japan not decide to attack Pearl, maybe just attacking the Philippines instead, or not attacking any US territory at all in the hopes the US stays out. None of these are war-winning moves, but they would reduce the incredibly anti-Japanese hatred in the US that the sneak attack on Pearl caused.
This gets rid of the 'Japanese will only be spoken in Hell after the war' mentality.
Then the US organizes a plebiscite in Taiwan 'stay with Japan or return to ROC rule' and in a wild surprise (to the US at least) the plebiscite goes for Japan. (Entirely possible, as I understand it. Japan wasn't loved, but few wanted to be under the corrupt KMT ....)
However, as others have said, there is no way on earth the ROC could flee to Japanese held territory and retain any credibility. So that is just off the table completely.
OTOH, if 'WWII' starts in 1939 (which is a relatively meaningless date for Japan) then they can keep Taiwan, maybe.
Have Japan not decide to attack Pearl, maybe just attacking the Philippines instead, or not attacking any US territory at all in the hopes the US stays out. None of these are war-winning moves, but they would reduce the incredibly anti-Japanese hatred in the US that the sneak attack on Pearl caused.
This gets rid of the 'Japanese will only be spoken in Hell after the war' mentality.
Then the US organizes a plebiscite in Taiwan 'stay with Japan or return to ROC rule' and in a wild surprise (to the US at least) the plebiscite goes for Japan. (Entirely possible, as I understand it. Japan wasn't loved, but few wanted to be under the corrupt KMT ....)
However, as others have said, there is no way on earth the ROC could flee to Japanese held territory and retain any credibility. So that is just off the table completely.
i would think North Korea would be better long term
then we wouldn't have the current North Korean mess.Well, the Cairo Conference in November 1943 was where they decided to go from "Japan can keep all territories excluding those it seized/occupied since 1914" to "unconditional surrender, independence for Korea, and Taiwan goes to China". So just have Chaing Kai-Shek get into an argument with Churchill and FDR, and leave without making an agreement.
Surely the mainlanders are going to lay claim to Taiwan, no matter who runs it? In fact, wouldn't they be even more upset by the Japanese retaining it?
Well, I don't think the US really wanted to punish the Japanese that much after WWII. Judging from the way they conducted their occupation, I'd say they were mostly interested in rebulding the country while turning it into a reliable ally that they could use against communism. Therefore, I do think that this is possible, even after Pearl Harbour.
The problem, in my opinion, is really not the US but the KMT. They'll allways demand Taiwan back no matter what, and as long as they're part of the allies the US will have no choice but to back their. claim.
I think the only way the OP's requirements can be met is if the RoC collapses during the war and the KMT becomes unable to take control of the mainland: Check out this thread I made a while ago: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-the-kmt-gets-obliterated-during-wwii.409780/
Let's say that Chiang Kai-Shek dies in the midst of a more successful Japanese invasion. Then the KMT splinter into pro-communist and pro-japanese factions. In this scenario WWII ends with the PRC already in control of almost of China, and of course the Americans aren't going to give Taiwan back to them. Now, I wouldn't say that returning the island to Japanese control is most plausible outcome in this TL, but it's certainly a possibility. Maybe if there's a little red scare before the Americans can make up their minds....
The problem, in my opinion, is really not the US but the KMT. They'll allways demand Taiwan back no matter what, and as long as they're part of the allies the US will have no choice but to back their. claim.
I think the only way the OP's requirements can be met is if the RoC collapses during the war and the KMT becomes unable to take control of the mainland: Check out this thread I made a while ago: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-the-kmt-gets-obliterated-during-wwii.409780/
Let's say that Chiang Kai-Shek dies in the midst of a more successful Japanese invasion. Then the KMT splinter into pro-communist and pro-japanese factions. In this scenario WWII ends with the PRC already in control of almost of China, and of course the Americans aren't going to give Taiwan back to them. Now, I wouldn't say that returning the island to Japanese control is most plausible outcome in this TL, but it's certainly a possibility. Maybe if there's a little red scare before the Americans can make up their minds....
It gives Japan a much larger Chinese minority than OTL (5.8 million and counting on Taiwan alone in 1941), since it's unlikely that Japanese people would ever make up more than 10% of the population. The Japanese were just under 6% in 1941. A lot of Chinese might try to migrate to the island thanks to the civil war and Maoist oppression/famine/etc.
As noted, any POD where Japan is allowed to keep Taiwan is one where the United States wants a strong ally in the Far East against the Soviets, meaning they're thinking quite a bit ahead. They might insist for Karafuto and Chishima too, and cut Lend-Lease support for the Soviets earlier. Perhaps the Soviets conquer Karafuto anyway as in OTL, and the United States instead allows Japan to keep Taiwan to keep them more powerful.
What I wonder is would Taiwan be considered a home island? I think if Japan doesn't play it cautiously with the island, Taiwan will develop an independence movement before long.
As noted, any POD where Japan is allowed to keep Taiwan is one where the United States wants a strong ally in the Far East against the Soviets, meaning they're thinking quite a bit ahead. They might insist for Karafuto and Chishima too, and cut Lend-Lease support for the Soviets earlier. Perhaps the Soviets conquer Karafuto anyway as in OTL, and the United States instead allows Japan to keep Taiwan to keep them more powerful.
What I wonder is would Taiwan be considered a home island? I think if Japan doesn't play it cautiously with the island, Taiwan will develop an independence movement before long.
The Taiwanese welcomed the KMT post-war, the pro-Japanese nostalgia didn't exist until the White Terror, so any plebiscite would see the Japanese losing badly.
Pretty much. Any sympathies for a Chinese government went down the drain once Chiang started purging the population, especially the natives. By comparison, Japanese rule, while not out of place from any European colony at the time Taiwan was colonized, looked far less vicious by comparison. A Taiwan that stays with Japan would spark intense outrage because the people would not realize what they were in for by supporting the KMT.
How? NK and SK were already sovereign states before the RoC was established.i would think North Korea would be better long term
Are you sure you don't mean "attempt to hold out", given that without the Taiwanese straits between them and the PRC, they rather have an uphill battle to hold off the Communists? The Hainan straits don't strike me as offering nearly as much protection...