Something I've wondered about, seeing a lot of TLs and discussions about an Axis victory in WW2, but few that take it all the way to its natural conclusion; Nazi Germany's eventual fall decades after the war (although far sooner than a thousand years). How it would come about, what it would look like, and what the consequences would be.
Though the war would probably never officially end; the best Germany can hope for is to fight the Allies to a standstill (and even that's a stretch), since they're never going to budge on their demand for unconditional surrender. So, eventually, once the fighting dies down (after the defeats of the USSR and Japan), the two sides would be left staring each other down while still being officially at war, like the two Koreas.
Of course, it would be a much more intense Cold War than the OTL one against the USSR (no one's going to negotiate with the country that went back on the Versailles Treaty, the Munich Agreement, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, among others, and expect them to uphold it. Forget about WMD limitations or Outer Space Treaties), between two sides still officially at war, so there's a high chance, rather higher than OTL, that it would end in nuclear armageddon. But either way, Nazi Germany is a country that's far from sustainable.
Of course, there was their huge reliance on pillaging conquered enemies and slave labour. The "subhumans" from their wartime conquests, mainly Slavs from Eastern Europe and the USSR, would fill the role for a while. But they would soon die out, since plans called for them to be literally worked to death. The rump USSR could keep them going for longer, assuming, like in AANW, they're forced to send a tribute of a million young men and women per year to the Reich and see nearly none return, probably soon resulting in their utter political and demographic collapse and Germany rolling over them to the Bering. Italy would be liable to drift away, and in a proper Italo-German split, the Germans are liable to react violently. Already seeing southern Europeans as inferior, it wouldn't take much radicalization to not see them as human. But soon, Germany will run out of easy targets. And the Allies, likely much more close-knit than the OTL Cold War and post Cold War-era Western bloc, would close ranks to ensure that. Eventually, sometime in the second half of the 20th Century, the slave labour supply would likely dry up.
And unlike the Soviet Union, there is little to no chance of them moderating. The first generation born after the War will have never known any other way of life, and being fed from birth with propaganda, will likely be fanatical to an extent not seen in OTL. Almost entirely cut off from an Allied bloc that treats their country as the world's largest rogue state, they'll never be exposed to Allied media or social norms. Leaders will become increasingly hardline, media will never stop toeing the party line, and none would protest about how much worse they have it compared to the citizens of Allied nations because they'll never know anything different, unless they're in the highest echelons of leadership. While there might be a little more success at sowing discontent in their allies and puppets, they were often just as liable to irreversibly radicalize, and any that do start drifting away from Berlin would be met with violence far surpassing the Prague Spring.
There's also the fact that a decades-old Nazi Germany can't break into ethnic fragments like the USSR did. After the wars, and the worst genocides seen in any world, it would be left as one of the most homogenous countries, where, by design, nearly everyone looks the same, speaks the same, and has the same beliefs.
But despite what its people believe, it would be a country in bad straits by the late 20th Century. The barely-cold war with the Allies would be forcing them to stay in high gear, with constant skirmishes and undermining attempts. They would be forced to maintain a large military that eats up a huge chunk of their GDP (like OTL North Korea), to compete in a space race that they've been losing since at least the Moon landing, and being increasingly cut off from the world outside their puppet states by an Allied bloc that's growing to encompass the entire rest.
In all, a victorious Axis's collapse seems inevitable. But while they run a terribly inefficient system far worse than even the USSR, while doubling down on or just not having any of the factors that caused the USSR's collapse, it's hard to imagine how it would go.
Though the war would probably never officially end; the best Germany can hope for is to fight the Allies to a standstill (and even that's a stretch), since they're never going to budge on their demand for unconditional surrender. So, eventually, once the fighting dies down (after the defeats of the USSR and Japan), the two sides would be left staring each other down while still being officially at war, like the two Koreas.
Of course, it would be a much more intense Cold War than the OTL one against the USSR (no one's going to negotiate with the country that went back on the Versailles Treaty, the Munich Agreement, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, among others, and expect them to uphold it. Forget about WMD limitations or Outer Space Treaties), between two sides still officially at war, so there's a high chance, rather higher than OTL, that it would end in nuclear armageddon. But either way, Nazi Germany is a country that's far from sustainable.
Of course, there was their huge reliance on pillaging conquered enemies and slave labour. The "subhumans" from their wartime conquests, mainly Slavs from Eastern Europe and the USSR, would fill the role for a while. But they would soon die out, since plans called for them to be literally worked to death. The rump USSR could keep them going for longer, assuming, like in AANW, they're forced to send a tribute of a million young men and women per year to the Reich and see nearly none return, probably soon resulting in their utter political and demographic collapse and Germany rolling over them to the Bering. Italy would be liable to drift away, and in a proper Italo-German split, the Germans are liable to react violently. Already seeing southern Europeans as inferior, it wouldn't take much radicalization to not see them as human. But soon, Germany will run out of easy targets. And the Allies, likely much more close-knit than the OTL Cold War and post Cold War-era Western bloc, would close ranks to ensure that. Eventually, sometime in the second half of the 20th Century, the slave labour supply would likely dry up.
And unlike the Soviet Union, there is little to no chance of them moderating. The first generation born after the War will have never known any other way of life, and being fed from birth with propaganda, will likely be fanatical to an extent not seen in OTL. Almost entirely cut off from an Allied bloc that treats their country as the world's largest rogue state, they'll never be exposed to Allied media or social norms. Leaders will become increasingly hardline, media will never stop toeing the party line, and none would protest about how much worse they have it compared to the citizens of Allied nations because they'll never know anything different, unless they're in the highest echelons of leadership. While there might be a little more success at sowing discontent in their allies and puppets, they were often just as liable to irreversibly radicalize, and any that do start drifting away from Berlin would be met with violence far surpassing the Prague Spring.
There's also the fact that a decades-old Nazi Germany can't break into ethnic fragments like the USSR did. After the wars, and the worst genocides seen in any world, it would be left as one of the most homogenous countries, where, by design, nearly everyone looks the same, speaks the same, and has the same beliefs.
But despite what its people believe, it would be a country in bad straits by the late 20th Century. The barely-cold war with the Allies would be forcing them to stay in high gear, with constant skirmishes and undermining attempts. They would be forced to maintain a large military that eats up a huge chunk of their GDP (like OTL North Korea), to compete in a space race that they've been losing since at least the Moon landing, and being increasingly cut off from the world outside their puppet states by an Allied bloc that's growing to encompass the entire rest.
In all, a victorious Axis's collapse seems inevitable. But while they run a terribly inefficient system far worse than even the USSR, while doubling down on or just not having any of the factors that caused the USSR's collapse, it's hard to imagine how it would go.
