Still struggling to get AVBT out of my head whilst working on my new TL, so here's a quick summary of what's happened in the last four years of transition Britain, including the 2023 election campaign. Currently planning to do 3-4 mini-updates
On this day in Transition Britain - 21st August 2023
Britain's coalition government had seen a series of ups and downs over it's four years in power
“British Prime Minister Bell Ribeiro-Addy has been counted out more than once in her short but action-packed career. Battered after seeing her Socialists take a drubbing in regional elections in May, Ribeiro-Addy took no time to lick her wounds. The very next day she stunned his buoyant rivals by bringing forward general elections from December to this Sunday. Translated from politics to street talk that was the equivalent of saying: Let’s settle this, once and for all. Most polling points to the conservative National Party getting the most votes to form a government with the far-right. If that comes about, Britain would follow a European drift to the right. Such a result would put in question the two pillars of Ribeiro-Addy's government — the green revolution and an ambitious social agenda.” - Britain's political escape artist Bell Ribeiro-Addy has odds against her yet again in national election, Joseph Wilson, Associated Press (2023)
Britain’s first socialist government in 60 years had seen some mixed results. The biggest plus was no one had managed to coup them yet. As well as exhuming the body of Louis Mountbatten, the Ribeiro-Addy Government had overseen radical social reforms, particularly to the benefit of women and trans people, leading the UK to be dubbed the “wokest” country in Europe. A significant achievement considering abortion and gay marriage had only been fully legalised in the last two decades. Of course this pace of change had been two much for many, especially in the religious older age demographic, with the inevitable backlash fueling National and Centrist bases.
Of course much of this was overshadowed by the international picture, nearly 200,000 people had died during the COVID-19 pandemic in Britain, with greater London being hit particularly hard. During the second wave in October 2020 four ministers, including Health Secretary Manuel Cortes were photographed without masks at an award ceremony just hours before the second lockdown was introduced. This led to a great deal of criticism towards the government, which was further exacerbated after Cortes was forced to resign in light of sexual harassment allegations. The UPA’s promise to deliver further devolution and listen to the autonomous regions would come back to bite them, as the already tense relationship between Westminster and Edinburugh would become further inflamed by debates over lockdown.
The UPA Government had struggled to impose covid lockdowns on unruly regional governments
The war in Ukraine also opened up divisions within the ruling left-wing coalition. Whilst Ribeiro-Addy had given support to Ukraine through defensive support and non-lethal aid, she had received criticism for refusing to provide hard weapons to Ukraine, particularly refusing to send Challenger tanks, particularly enraging SDP leader Sadiq Khan. Ribeiro-Addy’s attempts to walk the tightrope between being seen to support Ukraine and not escalating the war was further exacerbated by her Socialist Alternative allies and UPA backbenchers. Foreign Secretary Richard Burgon came under particular scrutiny for telling journalists “We refuse to escalate the war in Ukraine with more and more weapons, even if public opinion crushes us on television”.
“Former PM, Alan Johnson, called the UPA Government “naive” over their hopes to tackle the Ukrainian conflict without weapons. For its part, the People's Alliance insists that peace sooner or later will come and asks Johnson “how many deaths” he could accept by that time. Since Russia’s war against Ukraine started, the UPA, leader of Britain's governing coalition, has been reluctant to send arms to Ukraine. Rachel Reeves, Secretary General of the SDP, called once again on their coalition partner to reconsider their position. The SDP has insisted on the Government's support for sending weapons as part of a common European response to the conflict. In an interview on Wednesday, Johnson criticised the “enormous naivety” of the government, believing that the war could end with a ceasefire if countries would stop sending weapons to Ukraine.” - ~UK former PM calls British left ‘naive’ over Ukraine war, Max Griera, EURACTIV (2023)
The left weren’t the only ones suffering internal strife, after his defeat in 2019 Tugendhat had tried to cling on as National Leader, only to be deposed by the party’s right in a leadership challenge, with National’s factions tearing each other apart Penny Mordaunt was elected National Leader as a compromise candidate. Mordaunt took considerable steps to move the party to the right, focusing National on cultural “woke” issues and opening the door to a future coalition with the Centrists. Unity had an even harder time, after its disastrous result in the 2019 election and the departure of party godfather Alan Sugar, the party was almost wiped out in regional elections across the country, including in its heartland unionist neighbourhoods of Scotland.
After a poor set of regional elections in the Spring the Ribeiro-Addy Government called for a snap election. One of the most noticeable aspects of this election was the consolidation of Britain's previously fragmented political system into a series of big tent political alliances. The most consequential of these was the New Progressives, formed between the SDP and Green Left Movement under the leadership of Home Secretary Rachel Reeves. Other new alliances included “Action for Independence” where the SNP united Alba and other centre to right-leaning separatist Scottish parties to challenge the dominance of RISE north of the border.
Harvie's spectre still hung over Scottish politics, where others had returned Harvie had kept up the fight
The hot summer election being held in late August raised concerns that turnout would be depreciated as voters travelled abroad for holidays - with record numbers signing up for a postal vote. Whilst the economy, healthcare and cultural issues were all a core part of the campaign Scotland continued to dominate. Whilst leading Scottish separatists including Patrick Harvie had been pardoned, they had not received full clemency, they were still considered to have committed treason and they were barred from holding high office. Whilst many leading Scots had returned to the UK, Harvie had remained in self-imposed exile, refusing to return until bans on his political activities were lifted and he received full clemency.
“Patrick Harvie will return to Scotland before the end of the year, his lawyer Aamer Anwar predicted during an RTE interview. "the President is not scared of being detained," Anwar said. The Supreme Court has dropped sedition charges against Harvie. This lowers the sentence that he could receive from 15 years to 4. Harvie still faces charges of embezzlement and disobedience. It also upheld disobedience charges for former cabinet members Joanna Cherry and Lorna Slater. The European Parliament lawmaker, is living in exile between Brussels and Dublin. The change to Harvie's sentence comes after the offence of rebellion was abolished by parliament in a bid to calm the political crisis. Bell Ribeiro-Addy's coalition minority government requires the support of the pro-independence RISE.” - BBC Scotland News Bulletin (2023)
Harvie had become a bogeyman for the political right, with the Centrists alleging he was puppeting the UPA and RISE from his apartment in Dublin. Scaremongering campaigns around Harvie were rife, with one famous National poster using the slogan “Let Sheridan Vote for You” - a reference to the convicted SNLA terrorist Tommy Sheridan, who had been a member of Harvie’s party. The Centrists were the loudest part of the campaign, pledging to reduce powers to Scotland, rolling back abortion rights and pulling the UK out of the Paris Agreement. The Centrists started the campaign strong, receiving endorsements from Italy’s Georgia Meloni and polling as high as 20% in some instances.
Cleverly saw a brief surge in the polls before crashing back to Earth
However as the campaign went on, the Centrists began to haemorrhage votes to National. Mordaunt, whilst moving to the right, had positioned herself as a relevant moderate compared to Cleverly, allowing her to hoover up votes from the Centrists and the collapsing Unity Party. Mordaunt’s campaign was largely around attracting foreign investment by lowering taxes and cracking down on violent crime. Mordaunt also criticised Ribeiro-Addy’s “personality cult” she had built around herself, particularly with younger voters. Ribeiro-Addy had been criticised even within her own party for centralising power in her office and Mordaunt argued her Government was a “a dictatorial regime of extremism and populism”
The UPA also surged over the campaign, as British politics coalesced between the two largest parties with the left and right-wing blocs. Hope among the SDP and GLM that their Alliance would save them from the fate of Unity seemed to be misplaced as the Progressive Alliance continued to collapse in the polls, as voters moved towards Ribeiro-Addy in the hope of stopping a far-right Government. The UPA’s most eye-catching policy pledge was the promise of a 20,000 euro “National Legacy” where Brits turning 18 who agreed not to emigrate would be given this money towards education or starting a business. Ribeiro-Addy’s return to form as a natural campaigner further helped her party pick up in the polls, as she spent stump after stump railing against Britain’s elite.
“The alliance proposes free dental and eye care; a reduction of the working week to 32 hours; and a massive program of public housing construction. It also lays out plans for a green reindustrialisation, focusing on reshoring renewable energy. “All this is possible,” Ribeiro-Addy asserted at a rally in Glasgow last Sunday. “Remember when they told us you could not intervene to regulate the price of electricity?” Despite public infighting, her alliance’s position looks solid: most polls have the UPA at least level with 2019 (28%), no mean feat for an incumbent. Still, two weeks out, the election remains too close to call. Having alienated regionalist parties with aggressive nationalism, anything short of an absolute majority for the right will leave it unable to govern. The UPA insists that its uptick in the polls is the start of its comeback. It remains to be seen whether this will be enough to counter the rightwing surge.” - Bell Ribeiro-Addy Is Showing How You Fight the Far Right, Eoghan Gilmartin, Novara Media (2023)
Real fears of a far-right Government polarised the electorate
