Its all good, Diana's fate is the same as OTL, but she had been critical of the Junta so conspiracy theories around her death are stronger then OTL
"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL
- Thread starter powerab
- Start date
Potter is a thing in OTL and Rowling actually plays a strong role in the story, for better or worse
2023 Election Debate
UK’s Bell Ribeiro-Addy and Penny Mordaunt clash in fierce pre-election debate
By Rory Watson, Politico
The TV showdown saw the candidates engage in a 2-hour shouting match, with the opposition leader emerging triumphant.
Ribeiro-Addy and Mordaunt clashed in a brutal one-on-one debate last night, shouting over one another and accusing each other of lying.
Tensions ran high throughout the debate, the sole face-off the rivals are set to have, with Mordaunt landing several killer blows. Polls project the National Party will score the most votes in the election, but in recent weeks the People's Alliance have been closing the gap.
With neither party expected to win enough seats to govern on its own, both leaders spent the debate trading barbs about coalition partners. The nasty tenor could have a dampening effect on voter turnout in an election scheduled to take place at the height of the holiday season.
Ribeiro-Addy attacked Mordaunt for her dealings with the far-right Centrists, with which the National Party now governs in over 140 councils.
“You have surrendered to sexism with the shameful governing pacts you’ve signed with the Centrists,” Ribeiro-Addy said. “We’re going to win the election because Britain isn’t going to allow you and the Centrists to put us in a time machine and take us back to who knows where.”
For her part, Mordaunt criticised Ribeiro-Addy for leading a far-left government and relying on support from separatists.
“Can you imagine [French President Édouard] Philippe governing with a separatist party?” the conservative leader asked.
Using a tactic her party deployed during the May local elections, Mordaunt equated separatist party RISE with the SNLA and said Ribeiro-Addy had “no right to give lessons on governing pacts.”
Mordaunt managed to land some surprising blows during the part of the debate that focused on the economy.
Britain’s gross domestic product grew 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2023 and inflation is below the 2 percent target set by the ECB. Ribeiro-Addy tried to cite these to highlight her efficient handling of the country’s finances.
But Mordaunt threw out a slew of decontextualised figures to challenge the rosy economic picture and managed to put the pm on the defensive.
The conservative leader also appeared to catch Ribeiro-Addy off guard by ignoring a question about her far-right allies’ opposition to gender-based violence legislation. Instead, she brought up the left-wing coalition’s controversial consent law. The law ended up creating a loophole that slashed jail time for over 1,400 convicted rapists.
“They’re on the street because of you,” Mordaunt said.
An unnerved Ribeiro-Addy insisted her party her revised the law to amend the error, adding that “mistakes can be corrected".
Fresh off a charm offensive campaign on Britain’s most popular chat shows, Ribeiro-Addy was expected to perform well in the debate. Ahead of the event, Mordaunt even attempted to lower the stakes by declaring herself less telegenic than the prime minister.
But Ribeiro-Addy appeared anxious throughout the two-hour duel. A discomfort that was noted by the British media and which contributed to the narrative that the prime minister had lost the face-off.
“At no point did Ribeiro-Addy appear to be the prime minister,” wrote Leo McKinstry in the centre-leaning British daily the Sun. “Instead, she looked like an aspirant, trying to get a few talking points out.”
In an editorial, the conservative Express observed that despite “her media experience,” Ribeiro-Addy had performed in a “nervous” manner.
The prime minister’s lackluster performance undermines the UPA’s narrative of Ribeiro-Addy as a comeback kid who is regaining ground after performing disastrously in local elections.
The general tenor of the debate may also have an impact on voter turnout. Both in the press and on social media, Brits appeared exasperated by the 120-minute shouting match.
With the election set to be held at a moment when over a quarter of registered voters are on vacation, many of the Brits who tuned in to watch the face-off may end up turned off by the candidates.
Getting them to put their vacations on hold to deposit their ballots may have become all the more difficult.
By Rory Watson, Politico
The TV showdown saw the candidates engage in a 2-hour shouting match, with the opposition leader emerging triumphant.
Ribeiro-Addy and Mordaunt clashed in a brutal one-on-one debate last night, shouting over one another and accusing each other of lying.
Tensions ran high throughout the debate, the sole face-off the rivals are set to have, with Mordaunt landing several killer blows. Polls project the National Party will score the most votes in the election, but in recent weeks the People's Alliance have been closing the gap.
With neither party expected to win enough seats to govern on its own, both leaders spent the debate trading barbs about coalition partners. The nasty tenor could have a dampening effect on voter turnout in an election scheduled to take place at the height of the holiday season.
Ribeiro-Addy attacked Mordaunt for her dealings with the far-right Centrists, with which the National Party now governs in over 140 councils.
“You have surrendered to sexism with the shameful governing pacts you’ve signed with the Centrists,” Ribeiro-Addy said. “We’re going to win the election because Britain isn’t going to allow you and the Centrists to put us in a time machine and take us back to who knows where.”
For her part, Mordaunt criticised Ribeiro-Addy for leading a far-left government and relying on support from separatists.
“Can you imagine [French President Édouard] Philippe governing with a separatist party?” the conservative leader asked.
Using a tactic her party deployed during the May local elections, Mordaunt equated separatist party RISE with the SNLA and said Ribeiro-Addy had “no right to give lessons on governing pacts.”
Mordaunt managed to land some surprising blows during the part of the debate that focused on the economy.
Britain’s gross domestic product grew 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2023 and inflation is below the 2 percent target set by the ECB. Ribeiro-Addy tried to cite these to highlight her efficient handling of the country’s finances.
But Mordaunt threw out a slew of decontextualised figures to challenge the rosy economic picture and managed to put the pm on the defensive.
The conservative leader also appeared to catch Ribeiro-Addy off guard by ignoring a question about her far-right allies’ opposition to gender-based violence legislation. Instead, she brought up the left-wing coalition’s controversial consent law. The law ended up creating a loophole that slashed jail time for over 1,400 convicted rapists.
“They’re on the street because of you,” Mordaunt said.
An unnerved Ribeiro-Addy insisted her party her revised the law to amend the error, adding that “mistakes can be corrected".
Fresh off a charm offensive campaign on Britain’s most popular chat shows, Ribeiro-Addy was expected to perform well in the debate. Ahead of the event, Mordaunt even attempted to lower the stakes by declaring herself less telegenic than the prime minister.
But Ribeiro-Addy appeared anxious throughout the two-hour duel. A discomfort that was noted by the British media and which contributed to the narrative that the prime minister had lost the face-off.
“At no point did Ribeiro-Addy appear to be the prime minister,” wrote Leo McKinstry in the centre-leaning British daily the Sun. “Instead, she looked like an aspirant, trying to get a few talking points out.”
In an editorial, the conservative Express observed that despite “her media experience,” Ribeiro-Addy had performed in a “nervous” manner.
The prime minister’s lackluster performance undermines the UPA’s narrative of Ribeiro-Addy as a comeback kid who is regaining ground after performing disastrously in local elections.
The general tenor of the debate may also have an impact on voter turnout. Both in the press and on social media, Brits appeared exasperated by the 120-minute shouting match.
With the election set to be held at a moment when over a quarter of registered voters are on vacation, many of the Brits who tuned in to watch the face-off may end up turned off by the candidates.
Getting them to put their vacations on hold to deposit their ballots may have become all the more difficult.
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I know this is a alternate history TL powerab, but this is post 1900, not ASB. I accept that Politco has a bias, but really.
This mess could've been prevented if only Clarkson was PM but enemies of Mountbattenite the British state had other plans.
The reporter submitted it as a Centrist-leaning Sun, but the editor thought it a mistake and changed it.
Could the Uk's non democratic status for years, cause the US to have a special relationship with another western European nation? Holland, or France, as two main supporters of the American Revolution, come to mind.
But Gaullism was France's foreign policy doctrine throughout the Cold War which means that France would pursue independent diplomacy rather than following whatever the United States was doing. But the Netherlands is too small.
How about the Republic of Ireland? After all, America has a significant Irish population and is English-speaking. If the UK became an authoritarian dictatorship would Ireland be a liberal democratic English-European state, like the divergence between Russia and Ukraine after the Russo-Ukrainian War (Ukraine being the 'anti-Putin Russia')? If not this leaves us with West Germany.
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I thought the premise of this timeline was a US-supported coup against a socialist Labour government.
I mean the us weren't particularly happy but they had loads to gain from it with a government that is more friendly
The Sun is actually a centre to centre-left leaning publication ITTL. In OTL the Sun was a left-leaning paper until its acquisition by Murdoch and the rise of Thatcher, where it switched to being right wing in the 80s. In both OTL and ITTL, the Sun (and it's predecessor the Daily Herald) had always supported Labour.
As such ITTL the Sun was banned by the Mountbatten Government, meaning it was never bought up by Murdoch. So when it was resurrected in the democratic era it kept it's moderate political leanings it had held in the 60s.
As other commentators have pointed out the US was supportive of the coup and so kept a relatively close relationship with the Junta over the Cold War. With the fall of the Berlin Wall this relationship cooled somewhat partly because there was no longer an overwhelming threat. Clinton especially but also, Bush both put a lot pressure on the Junta to democratise.
In terms of more "soft-power" though Ireland takes much the OTL UK's place as the main bridge between Europe and the United States. This is helped by the fact a great deal of academic, cultural and political leaders go into exile in Ireland. This help Irish universities, film and music industries to take off, arguably making it the "soft-power" superpower of Western Europe.
No I've been working on it for a good few months but keep hitting blocks. I might just have to start dropping chapters to force myself to write!
My goodness, I didn't know that. Thanks for the info, appreciate it.
2023 Election Exit Poll
(Big Ben Chimes)
PEOPLE’S ALLIANCE WIN
FORECAST UPA LARGEST PARTY IN HOUSE OF COMMONS WITH 167 SEATS
Jeremy Vine: Now for the famous exit poll, if you’re a politician watching this, time to cross your fingers. And our exit poll shows a People’s Alliance narrow victory on 167 seats, that’s up 28. Nipping at their heels is the National Party, sitting at 158 seats, up 52. In third place we have the Centrists and New Progressives neck and neck, both a 65 - so that’s down 6 for the Centrists and down 29 for the NPA. In Scotland RISE are on 10 seats, down 6. And Action for Independence on 6 seats, down 7. Finally Unity has been reduced to just one seat if this exit poll is correct, down 32. All other parties on 36. So that’s what the exit poll is telling us. Naga Munchetty, what does that tell us?
NM: Well Jeremy a good night for the two main parties, particularly National, gaining over 50 seats is no small push. But we should remember Penny Mordaunt went into this the clear favourite - a National/Centrists Government was odds on at the bookies, but she appears to have come up short. Across Europe the right have taken Italy, Sweden and Finland, but seemingly not the UK. Her career now depends on how her team can spin this result
JV: Yes, a better than expected result for the People’s Alliance, Bell has cemented her party as the main party of the left. After her allies in Greece and Spain came crashing back down to earth the People’s Party have bucked the radical left’s trend across Europe and come out of the election stronger than before.
NM: And eaten up are those parties of the centre, teaming up didn’t save the Social Democrats as many of their voters have gone to the People’s Alliance to try and keep the Centrists out. Meanwhile National had successfully squashed the Centrist vote and seemingly devoured Unity all-together.
JV: A bad night for the Scottish separatists as well, with their leaders banned from holding political office at best, or in-exile at worst, both parties have suffered due to infighting. Alex Neil simply isn’t able to hold RISE together the same way his protege - Patrick Harvie was able to.
NM: With no clear victory the parties will now be looking at coalition options, neither the left or right blocs have enough votes on their own to make it to Downing Street. Will the Separatists be willing to prop Bell up again? They’ve paid a heavy price in the polls for their support and Alex Neil has said he will not give Bell another term unless she delivers amnesty for Patrick Harvie and a legal independence referendum.
JV: If a path to government looks difficult for Bell it looks almost impossible for Penny, the Centrists alone won’t deliver her a majority, and she’s taken a very hard stance on separatist parties during the election campaign. There’s a few smaller parties like the Ulster Conservatives who might be willing to help her out, but they’re a long way off. Her only route to power seems to be prying the New Progressives out of the left bloc, or - whisper it - a grand coalition.
NM: Either way we'll be making history tonight, this is the first election where both the major party leaders are women, so we’re almost guaranteed to have a woman PM. This is also the first election where none of the five national parties - maybe four now, sorry to any Unity voters out there - have been led by white men.
JV: History being made indeed, we are now joined by the former Prime Minister William Hague. Mr Hague welcome, is it realistic in your view that Penny Mordaunt can negotiate a National Government, and if not should she step down?
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Since this Britain is an EU member, which of the EU parliamentary groups are affiliated with the British parties? I'm assuming GUE-NGL for the People's Alliance and S&D for the Social Democrats, but I'm wondering where National and the Centrists line up. Would EPP accept a party that, if nothing else, still bears the name of the party that once led a military dictatorship? And are the Centrists in ECR or ID? And is anyone affiliated with RE?
OK, so I have done the maths, and I think the UPA have a path to a parliamentary majority. By allying with the New Progressive Movement, RISE, Action for Independence, Forward Wales, Plaid, the Continuity Ecology Party, the Workers Party of Scotland, the SDLP and the Anti-Imperialist Party, they would have 255 seats, just putting them above the majority mark. Of course, such a coalition would be highly unstable and prone to fragmenting.
At the same time, that is better than the Nationals. No party (save perhaps for Unity, the Rural Party and the Ulster Conservatives) will want to govern in coalition with the Centrists; a broad right coalition would thus have only 238 seats, leaving them short of a majority. National could hypothetically try to lock the UPA out of power by allying with the New Progressive Movement, Unity, the Rural Party and the moderate nationalist parties. While this would narrowly push them above a majority with 251 seats, it would be an even more unstable coalition than the potential UPA-led one described above, with the centre-left and nationalist parties suspicious of the Nationals and the Nationals' right flank threatening to bolt at any perceived moderation.
Overall, the most likely outcome, in my opinion, is a hung parliament followed by a snap election. Who would come out on top is anybody's guess; I could imagine that TTL's UK will likely go through a similar crisis to that seen by Israel in recent times, where we see multiple snap elections in a very short space of time.
At the same time, that is better than the Nationals. No party (save perhaps for Unity, the Rural Party and the Ulster Conservatives) will want to govern in coalition with the Centrists; a broad right coalition would thus have only 238 seats, leaving them short of a majority. National could hypothetically try to lock the UPA out of power by allying with the New Progressive Movement, Unity, the Rural Party and the moderate nationalist parties. While this would narrowly push them above a majority with 251 seats, it would be an even more unstable coalition than the potential UPA-led one described above, with the centre-left and nationalist parties suspicious of the Nationals and the Nationals' right flank threatening to bolt at any perceived moderation.
Overall, the most likely outcome, in my opinion, is a hung parliament followed by a snap election. Who would come out on top is anybody's guess; I could imagine that TTL's UK will likely go through a similar crisis to that seen by Israel in recent times, where we see multiple snap elections in a very short space of time.
I was wondering where you got the numbers from and realised I accidentally published the results breakdown early!
Sorry for the spoilers everyone, but some good speculating