A Most Glorious Revolution: Savoyard Spain

[morbidteaparty]

Thats rather sad to hear, I rather like Napoleon IV myself. Why not have him marry some Savoy/Bourbon cousin and enter into a mutual defense treaty with Spain. It would have funny consequences down the line of World Wars.

If the Italians are looking to claim Tunisia (and it was regarded as an Italian colony in all but name by Rome during the 1870s) which the French also considered as part of their sphere of influence then you're going to see tensions develop regardless whether Bonaparte is married into the Italian royal family or not.

As for an alliance with Spain, you'd then have to have Spain less closely aligned with the Italians, which seems unlikely.

I'm not saying Napoleon IV is going to suddenly be dethroned in a coup and we see one of the other monarchist claimants take the throne or a shaky republic established before it's overthrown by a man like Boulanger, but if France is unstable colonialism it's going to have a lot of problems to deal with during the period and a marriage isn't suddenly going to change that.

 

[RyuDrago]

If the Italians are looking to claim Tunisia (and it was regarded as an Italian colony in all but name by Rome during the 1870s) which the French also considered as part of their sphere of influence then you're going to see tensions develop regardless whether Bonaparte is married into the Italian royal family or not.

As for an alliance with Spain, you'd then have to have Spain less closely aligned with the Italians, which seems unlikely.

I'm not saying Napoleon IV is going to suddenly be dethroned in a coup and we see one of the other monarchist claimants take the throne or a shaky republic established before it's overthrown by a man like Boulanger, but if France is unstable colonialism it's going to have a lot of problems to deal with during the period and a marriage isn't suddenly going to change that.

Well, aggressive colonialism from France worked well for the next 45 years since 1870, but with more competitive players the Empire would fatigue, because there is not Tunisia but also Morocco, and surely ITTL Spain would make a deeper thought about it... The extension of the encirclement complex to Algeria would only put the French under further tensions.

And with Spain, the risks of colonial tensions can be higher, considering French Indochina and Philippines would stand in front of each other... Hmmm a war there would be very interesting.

 

[LordKalvan]

And so, tensions between Italy and France would rise... I wonder if Tunisia may be a possible ignition point.

Interesting that Bismarck preferred the confederational path for Germany unification and was clement with France... But I think the French would feel soon a complex of encirclement (what a news) if at the South will lay a Spanish-Italian alliance, in the North a British-German one.. Austria is the wild card at this point (supposing that Russia would ally with France) if this kind of blocks will rise in Europe.

A British-German alliance is the most improbable thing which might happen, on a par with a British-Russian alliance.
The British are not going to get involved in any continental alliance at this point in time (although they may be willing to get together with one or more continental powers in specific cases: for example if there is a Russo-Ottoman war, which is almost a given).
IMHO Bismarck will carry on a diplomatic strategy similar to the one he constantly pursued IOTL: an alliance with AH and Russia,even if keeping Austria and Russia on amicable terms is always a difficult propositionand ultimately doomed to failure.
There will be a crisis in the relations between Italy and France in the early 1870s: ostensibly it will be motivated by the Italian annexation of Rome, but in more practical terms it will be driven by the agricultural crisis (cheaper grain and meat will be available from the Americas, driving down the prices for the farmers in Europe).
France and Italy will be both diplomatically isolated during the 1870s (same as IOTL).

Relations between the two would be tenser (and if there's a tarriff war between the two as there was IOTL it's likely relations between the two will be much worse than OTL.) France is likely to have a worse 1870s and perhaps more instability than even the Third Republic managed.

The main differences with respect to OTL should be Bismarck's more amicable stance in his relations with France (don't expect much, and anyway the lack of reforms in France will be the most important factor) and Italy's better relations with Spain (here too it's probably better not to expect too much). With a little more focus on practicalities Italy might be able to secure a stronger position in Tunisia and to take advantage of French weakness.

France will have for sure a much worse 1870s, and I'm thinking that there will be a three-way political fight: Bonapartists vs. monarchists vs. republicans

 

[morbidteaparty]

The election of 1876 saw the end of the long lived Prim Minsitry and the dominance of the Progressives, who now out of power had fallen into intercine bickering amongst themselves granting Cánovas a stronger hand in parliamentary machinations than his majority of fifthteen would have suggested. [1] Cánovas, undoubtedly a skilled politician, had opposed much of the Progressive Programme during Prim's time in office, and while pragmatic enough to realise he couldn't reverse the previous six years of reform, his government represented a shift in policy from reform to consolidation. In contrast to the "new men" of Prim's last cabinet, his ministry saw the return of several veteran figures of the revolution, including those who had supported the Alfonsine restoration as well as disaffected Carlists who had abandoned the cause and reconciled themselves to the Savoyard state. [2]

Antonio Cánovas del Castillo, Conservative Prime Minister
​

The (First) Cánovas Ministry, 1876-1879

Cánovas, despite his opposition to the aspects of the reforms made to the state during the Progressive years was a pragmatist, though his pragmatism was in the name of stability rather than reform, as well as shoring up the support of what he considered the pillars of the state: the army, the church and the landowners. [3] The role of the Church in education had been a controversial topic following the establishment of the public school system in 1874, which had placed the previously independent church schools under government supervision. As a concession to church interests, Cánovas increased the autonomy of the church in regards to education, though they were still under the authority of the state. More important for the new government was the preservation of the traditional powers of the landowners who had been threatened by the proposed levy on land holdings, and who represented the traditional power base of the Conservatives. While the unrest in France had not spilled over into Spain, the influence of radical thinkers from the First International had begun to make itself known in the great estates of the south, and in the awful living conditions of the industrial cities seeing the socialist Pablo Iglesias elected as an independent MP affiliated to the emergent workers organisations of Madrid. In Barcelona, the government's inaction on alleviating the tensions between the emergingworking class and the bourgeoise had seen the influences of socialism and anarchism grow with the Madrid and Barcelona branches of the International joined by a third established in Bilbao in 1877. [4]

A general strike organised in favour of the eight hour day in the Valencian city of Alcoy [5], which had seen weeks of agitation from the socialist and anarchist organisations active in the city descended into violence when police fired into the unarmed crowd, with the city hall stormed as a result, before the army was sent to re-establish order. In the event, the damage to property and widespread violence saw the government enact a period of repression in response. The radical organisations which had agitated for the strike were forced underground as their meeting halls were closed, their newspapers were banned and their members imprisoned. [6] The suppression enacted against the radicals forced them underground, but their influence remained strong and spread to the countryside, where anarchist ideas gained in popularity amongst the landless peasants of the south, who had seen their meagre income collapse in the aftermath of the crash of 1873 which had seen agricultrual prices collapse as countries raised tarriffs on each other's goods. The break up of communal lands into smaller plots during the land seizures of the Isabelline period had entirely benefitted the landowners who received the revenues from the land while contibuting almost nothing to it's development. Further exacerbating the problem was the transience of the landless agrarian workforce [7], who were often shunted from one estate to another after their year of service ended breeding further resentment against the government. The agrarian situation was worsened by an outbreak of phylloxera in the vineyards of the east, which decimated the grape crop in 1877. Tensions between those in the government who wished to rennovate the nation's agriculture without resorting to the imposition of high tariffs on foreign grain, and those who called for a high tariff on foreign imports would dog Cánovas during his ministry.

An artistic representation of the anarchist violence of the 1870s [8]​

Despite the refusal to countenance industrial or agrarian reform, the government's stability helped lay the ground for economic improvements, as the country recovered after a near decade of war. The mining and metallurgical industries in the Basque counties increased in size as French and British demand for iron ore rose, with existing factories in the region expanding and new ones being built, while Bilbao developed into the major northern port with shipping lanes to Britain and Northern Europe. While it was opposed to legislation that would've fully legalised the nascent socialists or trade unionist organisations, the government was fully committed to industrial and economic expansion with a programme of public works (particularly that of roads and railways) instituted in the first year of it's ministry, which saw heavy investment in the railway industry, which saw the network extended to more remote areas. The integration of Cuba and Puerto Rico (despite the opposition of the conservatives to the Historic Compromise) into the country's political and economic life helped the economy as trade between the metropole and it's overseas provinces revived the old trade routes that led from Andalusia to the New World. [9] The influx of foreign capital which had emerged in the 1870s was becoming supplanted by the emergence of the native industrialists who established several small mining operations in the north, particularly in the Asturian region, though agriculture and fishing remained the backbone of the regional economy in the northern provinces of the country.

The government's colonial policy differed from that of it's predecessors. While reconciled to the Historic Compromise which had integrated the Caribbean islands into Spain, the government were loath to support any demands to integrate the Philippines into the metropole, more than happy to leave the maintenance of the colony to the local oligarchic interests which had dominated the islands for more than two centuries. The dominance of the Spanish clergy in particular was a sticking point, with Filipino (sometimes referred to as Indios) priests subordinate to the Spanish Augustan, Dominican and Franciscan friars who dominated the island parishes. While the Progressive government had drawn up cautious plans which would have granted some reforms to the islands, these had fallen by the wayside upon their electoral defeat, while the last governor-general sympathetic to Filipino interests had been dismissed in 1872 and replaced by General Juan Alaminos whose term was plagued by conflict with the Archbisop of Manila. [10] In contrast to this situation, the Caroline Islands [11] had begun to see some development, with the Progressive government having established a protectorate over the islands in 1869 following a treaty signed between Spanish representatives and the kings of Koror and Artingal, which soon saw the establishment of customs duties on the islands. The archipelago's location between the Philippines, New Guinea, Australia and the Americas saw it develop into an important coaling centre on pacific sea routes while the Conservative government encouraged several missonary expeditions to the islands, resulting in the first dictionary of the Yap dialect being published in 1880, though despite these small advances the islands remained largely forgotten in Madrid. Internationally, the government pursued a policy similar to that of it's predecessor, remaining broadly neutral in international affairs, though the government remained nervous that the instability which had plagued France since the war with the Germans, and the tensions between the French and Italians over tariffs and the "Tunis Question" [12] spilling over into Spanish affairs.

The government eventually collapsed following a fractious vote on proposed legislation which would have abolished the universal male suffrage employed since the promulgation of the "Savoyard Constitution" of 1869 with a censitary system which would have disenfranchised the majority of the electorate. The legislation outraged the radical elements of the Cortes, as well as the Progressive opposition while the liberal factions of the Conservatives were privately disquieted by the move. Following the failure of the bill to pass, and his realisation that to pass legislation he would have to rely on the senate and the king's perogative powers, Cánovas tendered his resignation petitioning the king to dissolve parliament which he did in March 1879 leading to the fourth election of his reign.

BRIEF NOTES

[1] Indeed the majority of Prim's time in opposition would be spent forcing the party to his will, which resulted in several defections to both the Radicals and the Conservatives, granting the latter a majority of eighteen by 1877.
[2] The royal family had grown in stature within the country during his reign, with the king's neutrality and scrupulous constitutionalism (he had angrily rejected the suggestion during the government's nadir against the Carlists that he could grant the ministry dictatorial powers) making popular within parliamentary circles, though significant sections of the Conservatives supported the restoration of the Bourbons.
[3] It was this last "pillar" who would prove to be the most difficult to deal with, for any attempt to curb their power and genuinely reform the vast estates in favour of the peasantry would see them unleash their power at the ballot box (or in some cases threaten the agricultural exports and imports necessary to the Spanish economy.) Their vested interest saw the issue of tariff reform dominate successive governments during the next decade, as the state vaccilitated between reform and conciliation.
[4] The spread of the radical organisations alarmed the government who responded with a period of heavy-handed repression against the emergent unions and agitators for working reforms. Despite the publicity of their acts such as the strike called in Barcelona, the organisations remained fragmented and were as often divided over ideological issues as they were united against the government. In 1879, the small Marxist influenced Socialist Party of Spain (Partido Socialista de España, PSE) was formed in Madrid. It was affiliated with the independent MP Pablo Iglesias who was one of the party's founders.
[5] The strike had been organised by workers affiliated with the Marxist International Workingman's Assoaciation. Alcoy was a major industrial centre of the eastern provinces, since it was home to paper, textile and metallurgical industries. The introduction of increasingly mechanised techonology in these industries and the corresponding reduction of the workforce as a result had deeply angered local workers who went on strike over an improvemet to their conditions. The subsequent police actions, led by an over zealous captain, resulted in widespread violence and destruction within the city. While order was eventually restored, the subsequent repressive measures enacted by the government would only make matters worse.
[6] The underground activities of the radical groups in the aftermath of this were hampered significantly by extensive police infiltration, with the Spanish authorities adopting tactics used by the French in regards to the radical worker's organisations which had emerged in the aftermath of the Franco-Prussian War.
[7] The high rents of plots of lands and the short contracts employed led to widespread unemployment amongst the labriegos who were often forced to move in search of work. The agrarian depression in the aftermath of the stock market crashes of 1873 further exacerbated this situation and provided furtile ground for the emergent political radicalism.
[8] The painting is of the murder of the mayor of Alcoy.
[9] While never likely to return to the levels enjoyed under the trade monopoly of the Spanish Empire at its height, the increased trade between the Caribbean provinces and Andalusia was a positive development for the local economy.
[10] The conflict was related to the level of taxation the colonial government was entitled from the church and was part of the broader conflict between church and state.
[11] The least developed of Spain's colonies and the last to be colonised, it's late colonisation by the Spanish saw the colony's European population remain comparatively small for the remainder of the century.
[12] Essentially a dispute between France (who viewed it as part of it's sphere of influence) and Italy (which had significant economic interests in the area) over control of Tunisia, which would eventually be settled at the Berlin Conference of 1878.

P.S. I will post an update specifically dealing with international affairs soon, but for now I wanted to concentrate on Spain's internal politics.
P.P.S. Also a massive thanks to everyone who has commented on this timeline, you're comments have been invaluable in regards to ideas (also this timeline has had the most comments of any I've ever started so there's that too.)

 

[J VonAxel]

I would comment on your excellent TL but I know f*ck all about Spain in this timeframe. I can state that I have been enjoying reading it, so thank you for writing.

 

[morbidteaparty]

I would comment on your excellent TL but I know f*ck all about Spain in this timeframe. I can state that I have been enjoying reading it, so thank you for writing.

You're welcome haha

 

[morbidteaparty]

I shoudl really be thanking @Milarqui since his Hohenzollern Spain timeline inspired this

 

[The Merovingian]

resulting in the first dictionary of the Yap dialect being published in 1880

*internal screaming* Keep the islands, they'll eventually turn into great tourist hotspots for spain. the Manta rays in Yap are well known to divers. Also great chapter, who do you have in mind to win the next election? I would love a return of the progressives.

 

[thezerech]

I'm very curious if France or Italy will end up with Tunis, this could turn into something very important for both Italy and France depending on the outcome and will certainly be interesting to see.

 

[Germania09]

I really am liking this TL so far

 

[LordKalvan]

I'm very curious if France or Italy will end up with Tunis, this could turn into something very important for both Italy and France depending on the outcome and will certainly be interesting to see.

It is certainly more significant for Italy than for France, since Italy needs confidence and not feeling isolated on the European scene. As far as France is concerned, it should be no more than a blip on the screen (at least for OTL France). Since however TTL France has a bunch more internal issues, it could end up as the spark for a regime change

 

[LordKalvan]

Spoiler

The election of 1876 saw the end of the long lived Prim Minsitry and the dominance of the Progressives, who now out of power had fallen into intercine bickering amongst themselves granting Cánovas a stronger hand in parliamentary machinations than his majority of fifthteen would have suggested. [1] Cánovas, undoubtedly a skilled politician, had opposed much of the Progressive Programme during Prim's time in office, and while pragmatic enough to realise he couldn't reverse the previous six years of reform, his government represented a shift in policy from reform to consolidation. In contrast to the "new men" of Prim's last cabinet, his ministry saw the return of several veteran figures of the revolution, including those who had supported the Alfonsine restoration as well as disaffected Carlists who had abandoned the cause and reconciled themselves to the Savoyard state. [2]

Antonio Cánovas del Castillo, Conservative Prime Minister
​

The (First) Cánovas Ministry, 1876-1879

Cánovas, despite his opposition to the aspects of the reforms made to the state during the Progressive years was a pragmatist, though his pragmatism was in the name of stability rather than reform, as well as shoring up the support of what he considered the pillars of the state: the army, the church and the landowners. [3] The role of the Church in education had been a controversial topic following the establishment of the public school system in 1874, which had placed the previously independent church schools under government supervision. As a concession to church interests, Cánovas increased the autonomy of the church in regards to education, though they were still under the authority of the state. More important for the new government was the preservation of the traditional powers of the landowners who had been threatened by the proposed levy on land holdings, and who represented the traditional power base of the Conservatives. While the unrest in France had not spilled over into Spain, the influence of radical thinkers from the First International had begun to make itself known in the great estates of the south, and in the awful living conditions of the industrial cities seeing the socialist Pablo Iglesias elected as an independent MP affiliated to the emergent workers organisations of Madrid. In Barcelona, the government's inaction on alleviating the tensions between the emergingworking class and the bourgeoise had seen the influences of socialism and anarchism grow with the Madrid and Barcelona branches of the International joined by a third established in Bilbao in 1877. [4]

A general strike organised in favour of the eight hour day in the Valencian city of Alcoy [5], which had seen weeks of agitation from the socialist and anarchist organisations active in the city descended into violence when police fired into the unarmed crowd, with the city hall stormed as a result, before the army was sent to re-establish order. In the event, the damage to property and widespread violence saw the government enact a period of repression in response. The radical organisations which had agitated for the strike were forced underground as their meeting halls were closed, their newspapers were banned and their members imprisoned. [6] The suppression enacted against the radicals forced them underground, but their influence remained strong and spread to the countryside, where anarchist ideas gained in popularity amongst the landless peasants of the south, who had seen their meagre income collapse in the aftermath of the crash of 1873 which had seen agricultrual prices collapse as countries raised tarriffs on each other's goods. The break up of communal lands into smaller plots during the land seizures of the Isabelline period had entirely benefitted the landowners who received the revenues from the land while contibuting almost nothing to it's development. Further exacerbating the problem was the transience of the landless agrarian workforce [7], who were often shunted from one estate to another after their year of service ended breeding further resentment against the government. The agrarian situation was worsened by an outbreak of phylloxera in the vineyards of the east, which decimated the grape crop in 1877. Tensions between those in the government who wished to rennovate the nation's agriculture without resorting to the imposition of high tariffs on foreign grain, and those who called for a high tariff on foreign imports would dog Cánovas during his ministry.

An artistic representation of the anarchist violence of the 1870s [8]​

Despite the refusal to countenance industrial or agrarian reform, the government's stability helped lay the ground for economic improvements, as the country recovered after a near decade of war. The mining and metallurgical industries in the Basque counties increased in size as French and British demand for iron ore rose, with existing factories in the region expanding and new ones being built, while Bilbao developed into the major northern port with shipping lanes to Britain and Northern Europe. While it was opposed to legislation that would've fully legalised the nascent socialists or trade unionist organisations, the government was fully committed to industrial and economic expansion with a programme of public works (particularly that of roads and railways) instituted in the first year of it's ministry, which saw heavy investment in the railway industry, which saw the network extended to more remote areas. The integration of Cuba and Puerto Rico (despite the opposition of the conservatives to the Historic Compromise) into the country's political and economic life helped the economy as trade between the metropole and it's overseas provinces revived the old trade routes that led from Andalusia to the New World. [9] The influx of foreign capital which had emerged in the 1870s was becoming supplanted by the emergence of the native industrialists who established several small mining operations in the north, particularly in the Asturian region, though agriculture and fishing remained the backbone of the regional economy in the northern provinces of the country.

The government's colonial policy differed from that of it's predecessors. While reconciled to the Historic Compromise which had integrated the Caribbean islands into Spain, the government were loath to support any demands to integrate the Philippines into the metropole, more than happy to leave the maintenance of the colony to the local oligarchic interests which had dominated the islands for more than two centuries. The dominance of the Spanish clergy in particular was a sticking point, with Filipino (sometimes referred to as Indios) priests subordinate to the Spanish Augustan, Dominican and Franciscan friars who dominated the island parishes. While the Progressive government had drawn up cautious plans which would have granted some reforms to the islands, these had fallen by the wayside upon their electoral defeat, while the last governor-general sympathetic to Filipino interests had been dismissed in 1872 and replaced by General Juan Alaminos whose term was plagued by conflict with the Archbisop of Manila. [10] In contrast to this situation, the Caroline Islands [11] had begun to see some development, with the Progressive government having established a protectorate over the islands in 1869 following a treaty signed between Spanish representatives and the kings of Koror and Artingal, which soon saw the establishment of customs duties on the islands. The archipelago's location between the Philippines, New Guinea, Australia and the Americas saw it develop into an important coaling centre on pacific sea routes while the Conservative government encouraged several missonary expeditions to the islands, resulting in the first dictionary of the Yap dialect being published in 1880, though despite these small advances the islands remained largely forgotten in Madrid. Internationally, the government pursued a policy similar to that of it's predecessor, remaining broadly neutral in international affairs, though the government remained nervous that the instability which had plagued France since the war with the Germans, and the tensions between the French and Italians over tariffs and the "Tunis Question" [12] spilling over into Spanish affairs.

The government eventually collapsed following a fractious vote on proposed legislation which would have abolished the universal male suffrage employed since the promulgation of the "Savoyard Constitution" of 1869 with a censitary system which would have disenfranchised the majority of the electorate. The legislation outraged the radical elements of the Cortes, as well as the Progressive opposition while the liberal factions of the Conservatives were privately disquieted by the move. Following the failure of the bill to pass, and his realisation that to pass legislation he would have to rely on the senate and the king's perogative powers, Cánovas tendered his resignation petitioning the king to dissolve parliament which he did in March 1879 leading to the fourth election of his reign.

BRIEF NOTES

[1] Indeed the majority of Prim's time in opposition would be spent forcing the party to his will, which resulted in several defections to both the Radicals and the Conservatives, granting the latter a majority of eighteen by 1877.
[2] The royal family had grown in stature within the country during his reign, with the king's neutrality and scrupulous constitutionalism (he had angrily rejected the suggestion during the government's nadir against the Carlists that he could grant the ministry dictatorial powers) making popular within parliamentary circles, though significant sections of the Conservatives supported the restoration of the Bourbons.
[3] It was this last "pillar" who would prove to be the most difficult to deal with, for any attempt to curb their power and genuinely reform the vast estates in favour of the peasantry would see them unleash their power at the ballot box (or in some cases threaten the agricultural exports and imports necessary to the Spanish economy.) Their vested interest saw the issue of tariff reform dominate successive governments during the next decade, as the state vaccilitated between reform and conciliation.
[4] The spread of the radical organisations alarmed the government who responded with a period of heavy-handed repression against the emergent unions and agitators for working reforms. Despite the publicity of their acts such as the strike called in Barcelona, the organisations remained fragmented and were as often divided over ideological issues as they were united against the government. In 1879, the small Marxist influenced Socialist Party of Spain (Partido Socialista de España, PSE) was formed in Madrid. It was affiliated with the independent MP Pablo Iglesias who was one of the party's founders.
[5] The strike had been organised by workers affiliated with the Marxist International Workingman's Assoaciation. Alcoy was a major industrial centre of the eastern provinces, since it was home to paper, textile and metallurgical industries. The introduction of increasingly mechanised techonology in these industries and the corresponding reduction of the workforce as a result had deeply angered local workers who went on strike over an improvemet to their conditions. The subsequent police actions, led by an over zealous captain, resulted in widespread violence and destruction within the city. While order was eventually restored, the subsequent repressive measures enacted by the government would only make matters worse.
[6] The underground activities of the radical groups in the aftermath of this were hampered significantly by extensive police infiltration, with the Spanish authorities adopting tactics used by the French in regards to the radical worker's organisations which had emerged in the aftermath of the Franco-Prussian War.
[7] The high rents of plots of lands and the short contracts employed led to widespread unemployment amongst the labriegos who were often forced to move in search of work. The agrarian depression in the aftermath of the stock market crashes of 1873 further exacerbated this situation and provided furtile ground for the emergent political radicalism.
[8] The painting is of the murder of the mayor of Alcoy.
[9] While never likely to return to the levels enjoyed under the trade monopoly of the Spanish Empire at its height, the increased trade between the Caribbean provinces and Andalusia was a positive development for the local economy.
[10] The conflict was related to the level of taxation the colonial government was entitled from the church and was part of the broader conflict between church and state.
[11] The least developed of Spain's colonies and the last to be colonised, it's late colonisation by the Spanish saw the colony's European population remain comparatively small for the remainder of the century.
[12] Essentially a dispute between France (who viewed it as part of it's sphere of influence) and Italy (which had significant economic interests in the area) over control of Tunisia, which would eventually be settled at the Berlin Conference of 1878.

P.S. I will post an update specifically dealing with international affairs soon, but for now I wanted to concentrate on Spain's internal politics.
P.P.S. Also a massive thanks to everyone who has commented on this timeline, you're comments have been invaluable in regards to ideas (also this timeline has had the most comments of any I've ever started so there's that too.)

A good update, which IMHO threaded well the needle of the first attempt for a land reform in Spain. I would say that Canovas came out of the crisis pretty well, and his decision to call for elections was not only the right one but also a milestone in Spanish democracy. If he had chosen the alternative of governing by decree there would have been an almost certainty that another civil war was on the horizon. Obviously the issue of the land reform has not been settled yet, nor the other thorny issue of the relations with the Catholic church: at least I believe that the major issue (electoral franchise) was settled for good.
It should be also an educative development for Italy too, which is facing very similar problems with land reform and relations with the church.

On the wider European stage the question is if there will be a Congress of Berlin ITTL too. I believe that the Russo-Ottoman war will come to be ITTL too, and the spark will be once again in the Balkans (talk about an easy guess ).
It does not necessarily mean that it goes exactly as OTL: Russian performance could be better or worse, for example, or diplomacy could come into play before the last possible moment (again as an example, if/when the Russians get bogged down in Varna), or it is possible that the parlous state of France will influence British behavior. It is also not a given that Bismarck will end up being the ringmaster of the (almost certainly unavoidable) European Congress. The last possibility is that the Austrians end up doing something stupid: IOTL the duke of Teschen was lobbying for an Austrian early intervention with the ultimate target of grabbing Saloniki. IOTL FJ refused to approve the plans for such an adventure, ITTL it might be different and lead to a clash between Russia and Austria. There are plenty of opportunities to have major changes here.

 

[morbidteaparty]

*internal screaming* Keep the islands, they'll eventually turn into great tourist hotspots for spain. the Manta rays in Yap are well known to divers. Also great chapter, who do you have in mind to win the next election? I would love a return of the progressives.

I think my plan in regards to the Caroline Islands was to have it develop into an important coaling station for the local region, which would be a significant boost to the local economy. As for the election (or elections depending upon how stable the ministry formed is) I would think it would be difficult for either the Progressives or the Conservatives to govern given the factional developments within both parties, as well as the rise of radicalism (whch is going to see a boost in votes for the Radical and Republican parties whose base overlaps with the Progressives in the major urban areas). How well the Progressives do depends on how well Prim can martial the party.

 

[morbidteaparty]

It is certainly more significant for Italy than for France, since Italy needs confidence and not feeling isolated on the European scene. As far as France is concerned, it should be no more than a blip on the screen (at least for OTL France). Since however TTL France has a bunch more internal issues, it could end up as the spark for a regime change

If Italy has a more interventionist minded government (and my knowledge of Italian domestic politics of the period is shaky at best) Tunisia could well have an Italian protectorate established over it in the late 1870s, which would certainly sour relations with the French, though whether they'd be in a position to do any effective against it is anyone's guess. If the empire emerges from the shadow of the regency and slowly inches itself back to the path of reform, it might stave off the threat of collapse for a few years, but it's close to the brink I feel.

A good update, which IMHO threaded well the needle of the first attempt for a land reform in Spain. I would say that Canovas came out of the crisis pretty well, and his decision to call for elections was not only the right one but also a milestone in Spanish democracy. If he had chosen the alternative of governing by decree there would have been an almost certainty that another civil war was on the horizon. Obviously the issue of the land reform has not been settled yet, nor the other thorny issue of the relations with the Catholic church: at least I believe that the major issue (electoral franchise) was settled for good.
It should be also an educative development for Italy too, which is facing very similar problems with land reform and relations with the church.

On the wider European stage the question is if there will be a Congress of Berlin ITTL too. I believe that the Russo-Ottoman war will come to be ITTL too, and the spark will be once again in the Balkans (talk about an easy guess ).
It does not necessarily mean that it goes exactly as OTL: Russian performance could be better or worse, for example, or diplomacy could come into play before the last possible moment (again as an example, if/when the Russians get bogged down in Varna), or it is possible that the parlous state of France will influence British behavior. It is also not a given that Bismarck will end up being the ringmaster of the (almost certainly unavoidable) European Congress. The last possibility is that the Austrians end up doing something stupid: IOTL the duke of Teschen was lobbying for an Austrian early intervention with the ultimate target of grabbing Saloniki. IOTL FJ refused to approve the plans for such an adventure, ITTL it might be different and lead to a clash between Russia and Austria. There are plenty of opportunities to have major changes here.

Cánovas from what I've read was a committed parliamentarian who desired stability for Spain above all else and the end of military intervention in political affairs. And the turno pacifico as corrupt as it was, was designed to grant stability to Spain (and it worked until the internal and external pressures on it stopped it from functioning.) He was fairly heavy handed in response to the growing radicalism in Spain as well as in Cuba, so the jury's out. In regards to the franchise, Prim's continued survival (from what I've read he genuinely was quite radical in his politics) ensures that universal male suffrage isn't going to be abolished, because it's one of the crowning achievements of the constitution of 1869. (Also while Spain is more democratic there is still widespread voter fraud and corruption particularly in rural areas where the local magnates can influence te local vote as they see fit through the wielding of patronage.)

In regards to Europe, I'm open to ideas on how to develop it (and yes to paraphrase Bismarck, it's always some damned thing in the Balkans), particularly in regards to the great powers. (Austro-Russian clashes could definitely influence Bismarck's policy which could see some interesting developments. The British might well be influenced by who their Prime Minister is (in the 1874 election, the Liberal won a majority of votes, but the Tories won the majority of seats because they were able to field candidates in every seat. If that change you have Gladston as Prime Minister whic cold well change British foreign policy.)

I am open to collaboration in regards to the European affairs in the 1870s, so please post your ideas in the thread!

 

[morbidteaparty]

I'll do two posts today: one about the Spanish royal family and one about the election (or elections) of 1879.

Next post, once I've worked though some ideas will be exclusively about European affairs during the period (and I am open to ideas)

 

[Rakhasa]

He was fairly heavy handed in response to the growing radicalism in Spain as well as in Cuba, so the jury's out.

To play devil's advocate, there is no good (and easy) solution for growing radicalism. If you could convince radicals by talking peacefully, then they would not be radicals in the first place. If you are heavy handed, you risk the situation worsening until widespread unrest covers the country. But, if you just let them be, you risk the radicalism spreading until widespread unrest covers the country. A catch-22. Finding a balance between "too violent" and "too hands-off" is incredibly difficult, specially when the situation is so complex as mid-19th century Europe was.

The only long term solution is to remove the root causes of radicalism, and that is not something a politician can possibly do in a few years, even if he had no political opposition.

 

[LordKalvan]

If Italy has a more interventionist minded government (and my knowledge of Italian domestic politics of the period is shaky at best) Tunisia could well have an Italian protectorate established over it in the late 1870s, which would certainly sour relations with the French, though whether they'd be in a position to do any effective against it is anyone's guess. If the empire emerges from the shadow of the regency and slowly inches itself back to the path of reform, it might stave off the threat of collapse for a few years, but it's close to the brink I feel.

During the 1860s Italian politics were dominated (after the death of Cavour) by the alliance between the Piedmontese aristocracy (the so-called Camarilla which included also most of the top echelons of the army and was obviously reactionary) and the even more reactionary big landowners from the south of Italy and Sicily. This dominance started to crumble after the war of 1866 and the annexation of Veneto and Friuli, which increased the strength of the Reformists and resulted in having governments of the Left (keeping in mind that the Left was progressive for that age, but lacked the numbers to force through major reforms). The Left was also notionally committed to the idea of freedom of the peoples (for a given value of freedom) and as such was not certainly pushing for colonial adventures. However there were certainly strong economical Italian interest in Tunisia (and around Alexandria of Egypt too) which were lobbying the government since the early 1860s for an interventionist policy in Tunisia. If there were to be riots against Italian landowners (which probably happened IOTL too, although not on a large scale), it would be more likely to have a naval demonstration and possibly a protectorate imposed on Tunisia (in particular since the difficult political situation in France would be likely to keep them paralyzed).
It's all very sketchy, and I'll try to fill in the gaps, but I hope have given you some good hints.

Cánovas from what I've read was a committed parliamentarian who desired stability for Spain above all else and the end of military intervention in political affairs. And the turno pacifico as corrupt as it was, was designed to grant stability to Spain (and it worked until the internal and external pressures on it stopped it from functioning.) He was fairly heavy handed in response to the growing radicalism in Spain as well as in Cuba, so the jury's out. In regards to the franchise, Prim's continued survival (from what I've read he genuinely was quite radical in his politics) ensures that universal male suffrage isn't going to be abolished, because it's one of the crowning achievements of the constitution of 1869. (Also while Spain is more democratic there is still widespread voter fraud and corruption particularly in rural areas where the local magnates can influence te local vote as they see fit through the wielding of patronage.)

What you tell me about Canovas is quite interesting, I was not aware of his commitment to parlamentarian rule. I would not be too harsh in condemning his repression of radicalism, given the times he was living in: the important thing is that he refused to govern by decree. The same applies to corruption and voter fraud in rural areas: they were par for the course in those days, and I wouldn't believe if you had told me otherwise.

In regards to Europe, I'm open to ideas on how to develop it (and yes to paraphrase Bismarck, it's always some damned thing in the Balkans), particularly in regards to the great powers. (Austro-Russian clashes could definitely influence Bismarck's policy which could see some interesting developments. The British might well be influenced by who their Prime Minister is (in the 1874 election, the Liberal won a majority of votes, but the Tories won the majority of seats because they were able to field candidates in every seat. If that change you have Gladston as Prime Minister whic cold well change British foreign policy.)

Your idea about Gladstone becoming Prime Minister in 1874 is a very good one, and you should use it. IIRC Gladstone was very vocal on the British press at the time of the "Bulgarian atrocities" and I can well believe he would have taken a proactive stance if he were PM.
I'll think a bit about an alternate Balkan situation and let you know.

I am open to collaboration in regards to the European affairs in the 1870s, so please post your ideas in the thread!

I was never shy in writing down my ideas, so I'll certainly continue to do so
If you want to use me as sounding board feel also free to PM

 

[morbidteaparty]

The King and his family had been gradually accepted by the Spanish during the first decade of his reign, as the numerous crises which threatened the state and his crown receded. Indeed by the end of the decade he had become secure in his place on the throne, and the idea of a Bourbón restoration remained solely the preserve of a small minority of diehard Alfonsine supporters. [1]


The king had been offered separate households for himself, his wife and children upon his arrival in Madrid, which he had rejected out of hand as needless luxury. The king was a man of relatively simplistic tastes, noted by many observers for his calm temperament, which served him well in the volatile world of Spanish politics. His wife, a fiercely intelligent woman, became popular amongst the people of Madrid for her charitable organisations, while the king became famous amongst the politicians of the capital for his dutiful approach to the crown, rising at six every morning to read the daily newspapers (including those with Republican and Carlist sympathies.) The royal couple had also, after a decision by the king, established a smaller palace near San Sebastián where they and their children spent their summers, due to its mild temperature and distance from the capital which they bought with their own income.

A later picture of the family at the estate of their Dutch relatives​

The couple also had nine children who were:


Phillip, Prince of Asturias (13 January 1869- ) [2]


Victor, Infante of Spain (24 November 1870- ) [3]


William, Infante of Spain (27 January 1872- ) [4]


Louis, Infante of Spain (29 January 1873- ) [5]


Alexander, Infante of Spain (28 May 1874-15 January 1877) [6]


Frederick, Infante of Spain (26 March 1876- ) [7]


John, Infante of Spain(7 December 1877- ) [8]


Louisa, Infanta of Spain (24 October 1879- [9]


Isabella, Infanta of Spain (28 January 1881- ) [10]


BRIEF NOTES


[1] Who represented a small faction of the Conservative party.


[2] Felipe Alberto Federico Guillermo Maria de Saboya, who was also invested with the titles Prince of Girona and Prince of Viana, thus reviving the former titles of the heirs to the crowns of Aragon and Navarre respectively.


[3] Victor Juan Alejandro Fernando Maria de Saboya


[4] Guillermo Federico Hernando Pedro Maria de Saboya


[5] Luis Amadeo José Maria Fernando Francisco de Saboya


[6] Alejandro Carlos Jorge Maria de Saboya. His death at a young age from pneumonia caught after falling into a lake cast a shadow over the otherwise happy family life enjoyed by the king and his family.


[7] Guillermo Federico Enrique Maria de Saboya. OTL’s William, Prince of Albania.


[8] Juan Carlos Francisco Maria de Saboya


[9] Luisa Juana Maria Teresa de Saboya


[10] Isabella Cristina Augusta Anna Maria de Saboya

 

[morbidteaparty]

The dissolution of the Cortes by the king in late 1879 saw the battle lines drawn between the Conservatives and the Progressives, though the factionalism prevalent within the two major parties ensured that the chamber which would form after the end of the hustings would have a decidedly fractured air.


Cánovas, who remained leader of the Conservatives following his calling of the election was faced with a party which had fractured into its old political clothes, with the liberal and traditionalist wings of the party frequently clashing in both parliament and government. [1] Such fragmentation eventually brought down his ministry as several deputies rebelled and voted with the opposition against the proposed electoral law of 1879 which would have significantly reduced the franchise.


The Progressives were in no better state. The feuding that had characterised their opposition to the government had been made worse following Prim’s decision to abdicate the leadership to run for a seat in the senate, an election he comfortably won, with the party headed by the moderate reformist Segasta who had served as Interior Minister and Secretary of State during long Prim ministry. The moderate opposition of the party to the repressive measures enacted against the workers movements by the government infuriated the radical wing of the party, with several deputies defecting to Zorilla’s Radical Party as a result. The election of May 3 1879 resulted in a hung chamber, with the Progressives (who had recovered in the cities) winning a plurality of seats.


(Election results, 3 May 1879, 213 seats needed for a majority)


Progressive Party (Partido Progresista PP)-202 seats out of 424


Conservative Party (Partido Conservador PC)-154 seats out of 424


Radical Party (Partido Radical PR)-47 seats out of 424


Federal Democratic Republican Party (Partido Republicano Democrático Federal PRDF)-14 seats out of 424


National Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Nacional PLN)-4 seats out of 424 [2]


Basque Union (Union Vasco UV)-1 seat out of 424 [3]


Catholic League (Liga Catolica LC)-1 seat out of 424 [4]


Independent(s)-1 seat out of 424 [5]


Following the election, Segasta attempted to form a minority government though this was soon thwarted by the hostility of the senate which had a Conservative majority. Following the collapse of negotiations with the Radicals, the king dissolved parliament for the second time. The progressives were able to secure a majority of two, though the previous dominance in the cities was now fading as they found themselves hemmed in by the Radicals on the left and the Liberals on the right.


(Election results, 2 September 1879, 213 seats needed for a majority)


Progressive Party (Partido Progresista PP)-215 seats out of 424


Conservative Party (Partido Conservador PC)-126 seats out of 424


Radical-Republicans (Partido Radical/Partido Republicano Democrático Federal PR-PRDF)-74 seats out of 424 [6]


National Liberal Party (Partido Liberal Nacional PLN)-5 seats out of 424


Basque Union (Union Vasco UV)-2 seat out of 424


Catholic League (Liga Catolica)-1 seat out of 424


Following the election, Segasta formed a ministry. While his majority in the Chamber of Deputies was slender, the senate had been returned following the second election with a Progressive majority, thus granting him a sufficient working majority to pass legislation.

Práxedes Mateo Sagasta, second Progressive Prime Minister​

BRIEF NOTES


[1] The Unionistas were Liberal-Conservative in character and had largely been members of the Liberal Union. Following Serrano’s retirement in 1876 they were led by Manuel Silvela. On the right were the Carlistas led by Ramón Altarriba who were composed of former Carlists who has accommodated themselves to Cánovas and his moderate conservatism. The final faction was that of Cánovas who were termed Gijónistas for their support of the moderate conservatism founded at the Pact of Gijón in 1875.


[2] The National Liberal Party had been founded by disaffected Progressives in 1877 led by José Posada Herrera following the acrimonious opposition of Prim’s final years as the party’s patron. In 1880 they returned to the Progressives forming the Liberal Party as a result.


[3] The parliamentary representation of the Basque regionalist movement which broadly campaigned for further home rule and Basque interests in general.


[4] The Catholic League represented traditional Carlism and clericalism and was vociferously opposed to any curbing of the church’s powers.


[5] Pablo Iglesias, now affiliated to the Socialists was officially returned as an independent in Madrid, though his links to the trade unionist and socialist movements saw him regarded with suspicion by the Madrid establishment. Following the second election he sat as part of the Republican-Radical grouping, though he was unaffiliated to either and genuinely kept at arms length by both parties.


[6] The Republicans slow demise as the main party of Spanish radicalism had seen them eclipsed by the Radicals. The two parties formed a loose alliance in the Cortes under the general direction of Zorilla though tensions between him and Francesc Pi y Margall ensured that their alliance remained an uneasy one. The Radicals officially held 56 seats while the Republicans held 18 out of the main grouping, leaving them as a sizeable left-bloc within parliament.

 

[dcharles]

(Election results, 3 May 1879, 213 seats needed for a majority)




Radical Party (Partido Radical PR)-47 seats out of 424


Federal Democratic Republican Party (Partido Republicano Democrático Federal PRDF)-14 seats out of 424


(Election results, 2 September 1879, 213 seats needed for a majority)


Progressive Party (Partido Progresista PP)-215 seats out of 424


Conservative Party (Partido Conservador PC)-161 seats out of 424


Radical-Republicans (Partido Radical/Partido Republicano Democrático Federal PR-PRDF)-44 seats out of 424 [6]

​

​

​

I don't follow how the radicals and the republicans lose 17 seats from one election to the other.