Eurofed
Banned
Blairwitch749's excellent "Manstein in Africa" TL has been developing for some time the interesting PoD of the European Axis fighting an efficient coalition war, with extensive economic, technological, and training standardization and integration, which raises the Italian military (and eventually the minor allies, including Spain) to the same level of efficiency as the Wehrmacht. However, his skillfully TL has a late 1940 PoD.
I am most curious to discuss what happens if the PoD were in late 1930s.
Let's assume that as soon as they seriously start to think about an alliance, in 1936-38, Hitler and Mussolini agree to increasingly deep economic, technological, and military integration, with standardization of successful weapons and equipment and license sharing, and to run a coalition war from the start, so the Italian army starts WWII as effective as the Heer.
The budding Axis makes a somewhat expanded intervention in the SCW, so it ends 9 months earlier, Spain is left a bit less devastated and Franco deeply grateful to the Axis.
Hitler and Mussolini skip the Battle of Britain & Sealion and agree to put the Axis on total mobilization and concentrate the bulk of its power in the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Middle East, and the Atlantic (KM and RM are expanded and integrated) to crush Britain and French forces in 1941, and to do the same in Russia to crush Stalin in 1942.
In the process of adapting Barbarossa plans to the new situation, and because of Stalin's success in Finland (see below), the OTL flaws into Barbarossa preparations are ironed out (better tank designs are developed, winter equipment is made available, big Italian and Spanish expeditionary corps take part, other Axis armies are at German level, etc.).
Mussolini goes after Yugoslavia with Hitler's help and blessing (and swiftly crushes it) either immediately after the fall of Poland or France, and leaves Greece alone (which is cowed into becoming an Axis-friendly neutral).
Spain joins the Axis when it sees Malta and Egypt fall. Turkey may or may not do so after it sees Suez fall, it surely does so when it sees Iraq fall.
Hungary, Romania, and Spain fully share in Axis integration effort.
Hitler lets Hungary annex Slovakia in 1939, so they keep their borders shut to Poland and no Polish forces escape to the West.
France does not surrender in 1940 (both Petain and De Gaulle are killed during the invasion). It keeps fighting with its Navy and colonies, the mainland settles down under occupation in a way quite similar to the Low Countries.
The WAllies invade Norway first by a few days and Stalin conquers and annexes Finland and the Baltic states at the end of the Winter War. War between the WAllies and the Soviets is narrowly avoided, and Hitler grudgingly accepts the fait accompli, but Norway and Sweden get to share the same fate, either both in the Axis, or occupied by Germany.
Spain invades and annexes Portugal after it joins the Axis.
Stalin makes a preemptive invasion of Iran when the Axis sweeps the Middle East. Invasion of Finland and Iran leave the WAllies rather distrustful of Stalin (no Land-Lease for Russia up to American belligerence, 25% OTL amount afterwards, as the Congress ties Roosevelt's hands; the spared amount goes to Britain, France, China, or to foster America's own war effort).
Stalin narrowly attacks the Axis first by a few weeks in Summer 1942, but the Axis was prepared to a defensive battle just in case.
America's belligerence is delayed to end of 1942 if the Axis conquers the Middle East, otherwise things unfold more like IOTL (Japan doesn’t attack Russia, invades South East Asia and the Philippines at the end of ’41, and destroys US fleet in naval battle, America declares war to Germany and Italy in Fall 1942 out of naval escalation in the Atlantic). The EuroAxis sells Arab oil to Japan when they conquer the Middle East, the embargo loses teeth, Japan accepts to attack Russia, Hitler & Mussolini keep fighting an undeclared naval war with America, but avoid issuing a declaration of war. FDR pressures Britain to uphold the embargo by seizing up Japanese oil as contraband. Japan declares war to Britain, France, and Netherlands, and invades South East Asia (but steers clear from the Philippines for the moment, as it prepares for "decisive battle" with America). FDR fails to get declaration of war from Congress, but American military build-up is massively expanded. Naval skirmishes with Japan blossom up into the "decisive battle" and US fleet is smashed. Japan declares war and invades Philippines. Grateful for Japanese belligerance with Russia, the Euro Axis declares war to America.
America puts itself on a massive rearming effort in 1941-42 and on total mobilization in 1943.
Britain (and the governments-in-exile of Western Europe) begs for peace if it loses the battle of the Atlantic and is blockaded by Axis fleets, or India is invaded or rebels, but it may re-enter war later if America looks especially strong. Churchill leaves office on his butt if Egypt is lost, but tell-tale promises of American help somehow keep Britain in the fight under Eden or Attlee (although the peace party grows awfully strong if the Middle East is lost).
Russia devolves to the level of Nationalist China and ceases to exist as an effective conventional military opponent for the Axis, becoming a big guerrilla problem, if the Axis reaches the Volga from Yaroslav to Astrakan. Russian generals in the Siberian rump machine-gun the Soviet regime, set up a junta for the salvation of Holy Mother Russia, accept American troops on their territory (unlike Stalin to the bitter end) and dig in for the long fight like the Chinese did.
America remains in the fight until it wins, or the Axis is able to hit its cities with WMD reprisals, or at least 8 years are spent from the beginning of its belligerance without victory in sight.
If British cities are hit by WMD reprisals, Britain immediately returns to neutrality (it is however possible that American forces in Britain may occupy the country to prevent a surrender; this might cause widespread British rebellions, loyalty problems for US forces, and a poltical crisis in America and Canada).
Axis nations remain in the fight unless overrun conventionally, successfully nuked 2-3 times (if in the prostrate conditions of OTL 1945 Japan) or 6-8 times if otherwise victorious. Note that due to TTL Axis strength, this needs to be done for Germany and Italy alike in order to force an Axis surrender.
Nobody is able to talk Hitler out of implementing Lebensraum on conquered Soviet peoples at once, and Mussolini and Franco go along (not that they care much for Slavs and Jews anyway). If the Axis is able to defeat Britain and France within Summer 1943, European Jews are deported to Madagascar; otherwise, the Final Solution is started and run to its awful conclusion.
I am most curious to discuss what happens if the PoD were in late 1930s.
Let's assume that as soon as they seriously start to think about an alliance, in 1936-38, Hitler and Mussolini agree to increasingly deep economic, technological, and military integration, with standardization of successful weapons and equipment and license sharing, and to run a coalition war from the start, so the Italian army starts WWII as effective as the Heer.
The budding Axis makes a somewhat expanded intervention in the SCW, so it ends 9 months earlier, Spain is left a bit less devastated and Franco deeply grateful to the Axis.
Hitler and Mussolini skip the Battle of Britain & Sealion and agree to put the Axis on total mobilization and concentrate the bulk of its power in the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Middle East, and the Atlantic (KM and RM are expanded and integrated) to crush Britain and French forces in 1941, and to do the same in Russia to crush Stalin in 1942.
In the process of adapting Barbarossa plans to the new situation, and because of Stalin's success in Finland (see below), the OTL flaws into Barbarossa preparations are ironed out (better tank designs are developed, winter equipment is made available, big Italian and Spanish expeditionary corps take part, other Axis armies are at German level, etc.).
Mussolini goes after Yugoslavia with Hitler's help and blessing (and swiftly crushes it) either immediately after the fall of Poland or France, and leaves Greece alone (which is cowed into becoming an Axis-friendly neutral).
Spain joins the Axis when it sees Malta and Egypt fall. Turkey may or may not do so after it sees Suez fall, it surely does so when it sees Iraq fall.
Hungary, Romania, and Spain fully share in Axis integration effort.
Hitler lets Hungary annex Slovakia in 1939, so they keep their borders shut to Poland and no Polish forces escape to the West.
France does not surrender in 1940 (both Petain and De Gaulle are killed during the invasion). It keeps fighting with its Navy and colonies, the mainland settles down under occupation in a way quite similar to the Low Countries.
The WAllies invade Norway first by a few days and Stalin conquers and annexes Finland and the Baltic states at the end of the Winter War. War between the WAllies and the Soviets is narrowly avoided, and Hitler grudgingly accepts the fait accompli, but Norway and Sweden get to share the same fate, either both in the Axis, or occupied by Germany.
Spain invades and annexes Portugal after it joins the Axis.
Stalin makes a preemptive invasion of Iran when the Axis sweeps the Middle East. Invasion of Finland and Iran leave the WAllies rather distrustful of Stalin (no Land-Lease for Russia up to American belligerence, 25% OTL amount afterwards, as the Congress ties Roosevelt's hands; the spared amount goes to Britain, France, China, or to foster America's own war effort).
Stalin narrowly attacks the Axis first by a few weeks in Summer 1942, but the Axis was prepared to a defensive battle just in case.
America's belligerence is delayed to end of 1942 if the Axis conquers the Middle East, otherwise things unfold more like IOTL (Japan doesn’t attack Russia, invades South East Asia and the Philippines at the end of ’41, and destroys US fleet in naval battle, America declares war to Germany and Italy in Fall 1942 out of naval escalation in the Atlantic). The EuroAxis sells Arab oil to Japan when they conquer the Middle East, the embargo loses teeth, Japan accepts to attack Russia, Hitler & Mussolini keep fighting an undeclared naval war with America, but avoid issuing a declaration of war. FDR pressures Britain to uphold the embargo by seizing up Japanese oil as contraband. Japan declares war to Britain, France, and Netherlands, and invades South East Asia (but steers clear from the Philippines for the moment, as it prepares for "decisive battle" with America). FDR fails to get declaration of war from Congress, but American military build-up is massively expanded. Naval skirmishes with Japan blossom up into the "decisive battle" and US fleet is smashed. Japan declares war and invades Philippines. Grateful for Japanese belligerance with Russia, the Euro Axis declares war to America.
America puts itself on a massive rearming effort in 1941-42 and on total mobilization in 1943.
Britain (and the governments-in-exile of Western Europe) begs for peace if it loses the battle of the Atlantic and is blockaded by Axis fleets, or India is invaded or rebels, but it may re-enter war later if America looks especially strong. Churchill leaves office on his butt if Egypt is lost, but tell-tale promises of American help somehow keep Britain in the fight under Eden or Attlee (although the peace party grows awfully strong if the Middle East is lost).
Russia devolves to the level of Nationalist China and ceases to exist as an effective conventional military opponent for the Axis, becoming a big guerrilla problem, if the Axis reaches the Volga from Yaroslav to Astrakan. Russian generals in the Siberian rump machine-gun the Soviet regime, set up a junta for the salvation of Holy Mother Russia, accept American troops on their territory (unlike Stalin to the bitter end) and dig in for the long fight like the Chinese did.
America remains in the fight until it wins, or the Axis is able to hit its cities with WMD reprisals, or at least 8 years are spent from the beginning of its belligerance without victory in sight.
If British cities are hit by WMD reprisals, Britain immediately returns to neutrality (it is however possible that American forces in Britain may occupy the country to prevent a surrender; this might cause widespread British rebellions, loyalty problems for US forces, and a poltical crisis in America and Canada).
Axis nations remain in the fight unless overrun conventionally, successfully nuked 2-3 times (if in the prostrate conditions of OTL 1945 Japan) or 6-8 times if otherwise victorious. Note that due to TTL Axis strength, this needs to be done for Germany and Italy alike in order to force an Axis surrender.
Nobody is able to talk Hitler out of implementing Lebensraum on conquered Soviet peoples at once, and Mussolini and Franco go along (not that they care much for Slavs and Jews anyway). If the Axis is able to defeat Britain and France within Summer 1943, European Jews are deported to Madagascar; otherwise, the Final Solution is started and run to its awful conclusion.