A more efficient Axis from the start

[Eurofed]

Blairwitch749's excellent "Manstein in Africa" TL has been developing for some time the interesting PoD of the European Axis fighting an efficient coalition war, with extensive economic, technological, and training standardization and integration, which raises the Italian military (and eventually the minor allies, including Spain) to the same level of efficiency as the Wehrmacht. However, his skillfully TL has a late 1940 PoD.

I am most curious to discuss what happens if the PoD were in late 1930s.

Let's assume that as soon as they seriously start to think about an alliance, in 1936-38, Hitler and Mussolini agree to increasingly deep economic, technological, and military integration, with standardization of successful weapons and equipment and license sharing, and to run a coalition war from the start, so the Italian army starts WWII as effective as the Heer.

The budding Axis makes a somewhat expanded intervention in the SCW, so it ends 9 months earlier, Spain is left a bit less devastated and Franco deeply grateful to the Axis.

Hitler and Mussolini skip the Battle of Britain & Sealion and agree to put the Axis on total mobilization and concentrate the bulk of its power in the Mediterranean, North Africa, the Middle East, and the Atlantic (KM and RM are expanded and integrated) to crush Britain and French forces in 1941, and to do the same in Russia to crush Stalin in 1942.

In the process of adapting Barbarossa plans to the new situation, and because of Stalin's success in Finland (see below), the OTL flaws into Barbarossa preparations are ironed out (better tank designs are developed, winter equipment is made available, big Italian and Spanish expeditionary corps take part, other Axis armies are at German level, etc.).

Mussolini goes after Yugoslavia with Hitler's help and blessing (and swiftly crushes it) either immediately after the fall of Poland or France, and leaves Greece alone (which is cowed into becoming an Axis-friendly neutral).

Spain joins the Axis when it sees Malta and Egypt fall. Turkey may or may not do so after it sees Suez fall, it surely does so when it sees Iraq fall.

Hungary, Romania, and Spain fully share in Axis integration effort.

Hitler lets Hungary annex Slovakia in 1939, so they keep their borders shut to Poland and no Polish forces escape to the West.

France does not surrender in 1940 (both Petain and De Gaulle are killed during the invasion). It keeps fighting with its Navy and colonies, the mainland settles down under occupation in a way quite similar to the Low Countries.

The WAllies invade Norway first by a few days and Stalin conquers and annexes Finland and the Baltic states at the end of the Winter War. War between the WAllies and the Soviets is narrowly avoided, and Hitler grudgingly accepts the fait accompli, but Norway and Sweden get to share the same fate, either both in the Axis, or occupied by Germany.

Spain invades and annexes Portugal after it joins the Axis.

Stalin makes a preemptive invasion of Iran when the Axis sweeps the Middle East. Invasion of Finland and Iran leave the WAllies rather distrustful of Stalin (no Land-Lease for Russia up to American belligerence, 25% OTL amount afterwards, as the Congress ties Roosevelt's hands; the spared amount goes to Britain, France, China, or to foster America's own war effort).

Stalin narrowly attacks the Axis first by a few weeks in Summer 1942, but the Axis was prepared to a defensive battle just in case.

America's belligerence is delayed to end of 1942 if the Axis conquers the Middle East, otherwise things unfold more like IOTL (Japan doesn’t attack Russia, invades South East Asia and the Philippines at the end of ’41, and destroys US fleet in naval battle, America declares war to Germany and Italy in Fall 1942 out of naval escalation in the Atlantic). The EuroAxis sells Arab oil to Japan when they conquer the Middle East, the embargo loses teeth, Japan accepts to attack Russia, Hitler & Mussolini keep fighting an undeclared naval war with America, but avoid issuing a declaration of war. FDR pressures Britain to uphold the embargo by seizing up Japanese oil as contraband. Japan declares war to Britain, France, and Netherlands, and invades South East Asia (but steers clear from the Philippines for the moment, as it prepares for "decisive battle" with America). FDR fails to get declaration of war from Congress, but American military build-up is massively expanded. Naval skirmishes with Japan blossom up into the "decisive battle" and US fleet is smashed. Japan declares war and invades Philippines. Grateful for Japanese belligerance with Russia, the Euro Axis declares war to America.

America puts itself on a massive rearming effort in 1941-42 and on total mobilization in 1943.

Britain (and the governments-in-exile of Western Europe) begs for peace if it loses the battle of the Atlantic and is blockaded by Axis fleets, or India is invaded or rebels, but it may re-enter war later if America looks especially strong. Churchill leaves office on his butt if Egypt is lost, but tell-tale promises of American help somehow keep Britain in the fight under Eden or Attlee (although the peace party grows awfully strong if the Middle East is lost).

Russia devolves to the level of Nationalist China and ceases to exist as an effective conventional military opponent for the Axis, becoming a big guerrilla problem, if the Axis reaches the Volga from Yaroslav to Astrakan. Russian generals in the Siberian rump machine-gun the Soviet regime, set up a junta for the salvation of Holy Mother Russia, accept American troops on their territory (unlike Stalin to the bitter end) and dig in for the long fight like the Chinese did.

America remains in the fight until it wins, or the Axis is able to hit its cities with WMD reprisals, or at least 8 years are spent from the beginning of its belligerance without victory in sight.

If British cities are hit by WMD reprisals, Britain immediately returns to neutrality (it is however possible that American forces in Britain may occupy the country to prevent a surrender; this might cause widespread British rebellions, loyalty problems for US forces, and a poltical crisis in America and Canada).

Axis nations remain in the fight unless overrun conventionally, successfully nuked 2-3 times (if in the prostrate conditions of OTL 1945 Japan) or 6-8 times if otherwise victorious. Note that due to TTL Axis strength, this needs to be done for Germany and Italy alike in order to force an Axis surrender.

Nobody is able to talk Hitler out of implementing Lebensraum on conquered Soviet peoples at once, and Mussolini and Franco go along (not that they care much for Slavs and Jews anyway). If the Axis is able to defeat Britain and France within Summer 1943, European Jews are deported to Madagascar; otherwise, the Final Solution is started and run to its awful conclusion.

 

[BlairWitch749]

Whilst my POD was to insert a character who could actually work with other armies (Manstein) at the high command level. There are more subtle ways this could have been done without drastically changing the economies of both countries

One that I have offered up would be to keep the CVT (The Italian equivilent of the Kondor Legion) (Corpo Truppe Volontarie) together. This group had over 60,000 soldiers that had extensive combat experience and had a taste of cooperating with tanks, aircraft and friendly forces (Nationalists and the Germans). They also had over 500 experienced pilots assigned to cooperate with them.

If this group was held together... and sent to Austria for joint familiarizations and continued exercises with the Germans it would give Mussolini a core fo excellent first class troops to expand his army around. Whilst due to terrain and lack of heavy artillery they wouldn't necessarily due any better in southern France, they could be decisive in Africa (and the CVT wouldn't require a lot of German hand holding)... if Mussolini transported the CVT to Libya before shooting broke out.

OTL showed that Italian divisions, if they where experienced and had been given some handholding from the Germans until they sorted themselves out where the equal of anyone elses. Ariette and Trieste after many months of serving with the Africa Korps became reliable formations, that he could count on to hold important defensive areas or to take part in his offensives (Rommel)
Livorno, after a few months of training with the Hermann Goering Panzer Division became a decent field division (it aquitted itself well during operation Husky)

 

[stevep]

Eurofed

What is it with you and nightmare scenarios? Just about everything you post directs towards mega-states, generally brutal dictatorships, conquering all and sundry. Do you hate humanity that much?

Fortunately most of what your said above is virtually ASB in components, let alone all together.

Steve

 

[a world without tins]

Surely a dominating dynamic of all forms of fascism is competition, not co operation. It was actively fostered by AH and to a lesser extent (I think) by Muss as the primary tool of any group dynamic. That and divide and rule, even in the smallest and most insignificant departments.

And this is a "partnership" (AH & Muss) that had the greatest difficulty in sharing the most basic or vital information, and would send telegrams to each other at 2am that they were going to invade Russia that morning.

This would pre suppose a different kind of fascism. A difficult POD.

 

[I Blame Communism]

Surely a dominating dynamic of all forms of fascism is competition, not co operation. It was actively fostered by AH and to a lesser extent (I think) by Muss as the primary tool of any group dynamic. That and divide and rule, even in the smallest and most insignificant departments.

And this is a "partnership" (AH & Muss) that had the greatest difficulty in sharing the most basic or vital information, and would send telegrams to each other at 2am that they were going to invade Russia that morning.

This would pre suppose a different kind of fascism. A difficult POD.

Precisely, and Mussolini certainly wasn't planning a total war with the Entente by 1940 in 1936. And we'd respond to any such German takeover of Italian war-capacity in our foreign policy. There's a lot of problems with the preconditions here. The Hungarians were a lot more cautious, for one that wrankles me: Hitler did offer them Slovakia if they became his vassal. they preferred to make a more manageable, justifiable, internationally-sanctioned expansion and see which way the wind blew.

 

[AMF]

Surely a dominating dynamic of all forms of fascism is competition, not co operation. It was actively fostered by AH and to a lesser extent (I think) by Muss as the primary tool of any group dynamic. That and divide and rule, even in the smallest and most insignificant departments.

And this is a "partnership" (AH & Muss) that had the greatest difficulty in sharing the most basic or vital information, and would send telegrams to each other at 2am that they were going to invade Russia that morning.

This would pre suppose a different kind of fascism. A difficult POD.

As a world without tins wrote, the proposed timeline would suppose a different kind of fascism, perhaps it would be more appropriate to say a different form of dictatorship altogether.

One area where the Axis nations could do substantially better than in OTL is international trade. But to improve the situation here would require doing something that is diametrically opposed to the totalitarian ideal of the all-powerful and all-pervading state. The improvement over the OTL situation would require less intervention by the state than in OTL, not more.

Historically, international trade by the Axis nations was done via national clearing accounts for trade with most nations, and even where there were no clearing accounts, international trade was heavily regimented. If international trade among the Axis nations and between the Axis and those neutrals which could be predicted to be within reach, even during a war, was open for more private initiative, there could be massive improvements.

The system of payment for the arms and equipment for the German army was initially based on a cost-plus basis, meaning that the suppliers were paid their expenditures plus a certain fixed percentage of their expenditures as profit. This meant that the higher the expenditures, the higher the profits, which in turn let to massive waste in production. Abolishing this system earlier than in OTL could greatly increase the efficiency of the German arms industry.

One smaller thing was that Italy built fortifications at its northern border against a possible German attack, even as Italian and German troops were fighting side by side in North Africa, an expenditure that could be saved by more co-operative regimes.

Of course it is your timeline Eurofed, but I wonder why your alternate Axis leaders have not limited the number of their enemies more. The ideal in this direction would be that Germany does not attack Poland, but keeps it as a buffer state against the Soviet Union, and makes an unprovoked "out of the blue" attack in the West, while Italy attacks neither Ethiopia nor Greece.

I am looking forward very much to reading more!

 

[John Farson]

Eurofed

What is it with you and nightmare scenarios? Just about everything you post directs towards mega-states, generally brutal dictatorships, conquering all and sundry. Do you hate humanity that much?

Fortunately most of what your said above is virtually ASB in components, let alone all together.

Steve

Eurofed's a member of the Cthulhu cult, don'cha know? He's doing all he can to promote his dark masters' agenda, fostering chaos and madness on the Net.

On a more serious note, I pretty much agree with awwt and I Blame Communism here. I for one think it would be very difficult for the Axis to form into a monolithic "block" similar to the Anglo-American alliance. The Germans, Italians, Japanese etc. all had their own idiosyncracies, policies and agendas, all of which would cause (and did cause) friction in their alliance. As IBC pointed out, Musso wasn't planning to start a war with the Western allies by 1940, and only went to war against the advice of his generals when he thought (mistakenly) that Germany was the winning side. There were quite a few Italian fascists who were nonetheless anglophiles: after all, Britain had been Italy's ally in the Great War, and there was no real reason why that should change. More pragmatically, I'm sure that a number of Italians understood that it would do no good to get in the British Empire's bad side considering that they were very well positioned to cut off and occupy Italy's African empire. That's one reason why Franco and Salazar decided to stay neutral in OTL.

Also, such considerations also ignore the fact that the Allies would certainly react and respond accordingly. These kinds of TLs always seem to assume that the Allies either don't respond or respond as in OTL, when logic would dictate that the responses would be different.

 

[Readman]

Yeah I would have to agree, the Allies certainly had the whole co-ordinated effort, wheras the Axis, though nominally allied had disparate and diverging strategies.

 

[shillinger]

Eurofed's a member of the Cthulhu cult, don'cha know? He's doing all he can to promote his dark masters' agenda, fostering chaos and madness on the Net.

Cthulhu? No.

Eurofed is a Dalek.

 

[Paulo the Limey]

Eurofed

What is it with you and nightmare scenarios? Just about everything you post directs towards mega-states, generally brutal dictatorships, conquering all and sundry. Do you hate humanity that much?

Fortunately most of what your said above is virtually ASB in components, let alone all together.

Steve

Maybe this is his motivation:

I swear, every time I read taking "nevah surrendah" boasting as a physical fact, my fondness grows of TLs where the Limey chest-thumpers get their wish and the British Isles are nuked/bombed/blockaded/invaded by successful Habsburg/Napoleon/Yankees/CPs/Axis/Reds into a burned-out, bled-out, impoverished empty shell.

 

[I Blame Communism]

Maybe this is his motivation:

Yeah, Eurofed does seem to have a bit of a complex. I consider this board generally Anglophile, but he refuses to admit the possibility that we maybe weren't itching to surrender. The government did make contingency plans to evacuate Great Britain and continue the war from Canada. They were serious. People very high in the chain of command were involved.

 

[a world without tins]

Yeah, Eurofed does seem to have a bit of a complex. I consider this board generally Anglophile, but he refuses to admit the possibility that we maybe weren't itching to surrender. The government did make contingency plans to evacuate Great Britain and continue the war from Canada. They were serious. People very high in the chain of command were involved.

And my grand dad joined the A.R.P so obviously in the England of 1940, surrender was not an option.

 

[Wyragen-TXRG4P]

Integrated Axis Scenario (Long term).

1936: There is no coup in Spain but in France, le Front Populaire have an even greater and its ennemies far less support than in Spain.
By early 1937, it was clear that the loyalists are winning, the insurrectionist factions attempt an attack on Paris which eventually fails.
By summer, violences starts breaking out in Spain too, the republicans are better prepared for an insurrection war than IOTL.
In the latter half of 1937, the loyalists are controlling much of France and are starting to intervene in Spain, where the anti-governement factions are hard pressed.
Hitler have accelerated his militarisation and Austria is seized in December.
1938: Franco-Spanish forces seizes Portugal where a number of anti-leftwing forces had taken refuge, there is an increased cooperation with the Soviet-Union.
Spanish, French and Portuguese governement-in-exile are set up in Berlin. In response to the Paris-Madrid-Moscow front, cooperation increases between Italy, Germany, Hungaria and Bulgaria.
The Japanese are focusing more forces in a land army and haven´t been messing with the Chinese nationalists, avoiding war so far.
Hitler decide to assist the Japanese in constructing a decent land army.
No Czechoslovakian crisis, the Franco-Spaniards armies are along the Franco-German borders, Hitler knows Leon Blum is ready to attack. Promises are made to Slovakian nationalists, in response to the little entente becoming bolder (Yugoslavia and Romania), the Germans send forces into Hungaria, the Iron Guard is prepared to be used as the future governement of Romania.
1939: Increased cooperation between Czechoslovakia, Romania, France, Portugal, Spain, the Soviet-Union and Yugoslavia.
Poland is eventually bought with Teschen, Lithuania and modern weaponery, recognision by the Soviet-Union of territories seized in 1920. Dantzig is annexed into Poland in November.
The Polish gov receives further promises, control of eastern germany, except for Berlin that would be divided between the Franco-Spanish and the Soviets.
1940: 20th March, the axis begin an offensive against Danemark, then Norway. Allies declares war. Hitler mobilises Germany for total war.
5th April, a major Franco-Spanish is beaten against the West Wall.
11 April see a major offensive into Belgium and Holland, the French intervenes but the Germans for planned that.
The French retreates soon from Belgium to mount a counter-attack, first major battle of WW2 (Kursk 3 years early), Panzers wins against tanks.
The Franco-Spanish forces are encircled in the following battles, millions are taken prisonniers.
Britain declares war to the european axis over the violation of the neutrality of 4 countries.
The remaining Spanish republicans retreats to defend their territories but Metropolitan France is rapidly falling, a right-wing coup occures in Bordeaux, right-wing groups begin insurrections in southern France, leading to a civil war the Germans takes advantage of.
With the west secure, Hitler turns east, Polish forces had attacked eastern Germany but where bogged down, they meet an epic defeat. Blitzkrieg tactics defeate the attempted Soviet rescue but millions of red army soldiers are able to retreate back into the SU.
Blitzkrieg into Romania, the country is swiftly secured, king carol ii attempts to flee but is shot, he will later awaken in a butchery controled by the SS and Iron Guards...
Red army forces in Romania looses 40% of their infantery and 90% of their fighting equippement.
Yugoslavia is crushed and divided into states under Italian influence. Nationalists takes power in Slovakia, join the axis, through Slovakia axis forces defeats the Czechs without needing to go through the border fortifications.
1941: As winter comes over the Soviet-Union, Hitler decides to turn west, Spanish republicans are defeated in open battle by a massive axis offensive, many escape to fight a guerilla warfare in the cities and countryside of Spain.
The falangist movement leads the anti-guerilla operations and establish a pro-axis governement in Spain.
In April, the axis takes the world by surprise by attacking turkey instead of the Soviet-Union, the axis forces rapidly moves through turkey into Syria and Lebanon, from there into Palestine and Iraq.
Within 6 months, the axis forces holds the middle-east from the Suez canal to Kuwait, have made advances into western Iran.
As war production was only beginning to accelerate, Hitler decided to waite another year to attack the Soviet-Union and not allow the British to reinforce their position in the middle-east to later support the Sovietic war effort with the ressources of the allied colonial possessions.
1942: Axis ship and submarine production begin to accelerate and increasingly attacks supplies to Britain, collaborationist movements gain increased power and credibility in western europe, while leftwing guerilla are slowly crushed.
Italian, Hungarian, Romanian, Slovakian, Bulgarian, Slovenian, Croatian and Bosnian volunteer forces have been given proper training and equippement and assist in the east front.
Production have accelerated and compensate for the war in the east, the axis is able to win several major battles in the "ukraine" and advance into the northern caucase.
By October, axis forces reaches the Volga, cutting off the southern caucase from the north.
The USA declares war to the axis over a suspicious explosion sinking a Texan warship in "neutal" waters, Roosevelt decide to move the Pacific fleet to the Phillipines. Much supplies have already been transfered from Pearl Harbour to the Phillipines.
New York is attacked by an aircraft carrier sold by Japan to Germany within a week of the declaration of war, a number of daring Kommando and submarine attacks follows causing much panic.
US and British navies attempts to intercept the aircraft carrier but west of southern Spain, face attack by an axis fleet fielding another aircraft carrier.
The axis wastes no time and begin a landing in Egypt less than 2 weeks later, taking the British by surprise, they are able to seize Cairo, the Suez canal falls under axis control within a month.
Axis advances in Iran allows to cut the southern caucase from receiving supplies through Iran, Luftwaffe is able to interdict shipping in the Caspian sea.
1943: The US fleet while moving toward the Phillipines is attacked and sunk by the Japanese, the battle is a complete victory.
The Japanese moves against the Phillipines and Indochina, a fleet is launched against Hawaii.
Pre-war number of US soldiers in Hawaii was 9000, when fighting began most where sent to relieve th Phillipines. The Japanese are able to defeat the ships defending Pearl Harbour and are able to seize the new airport almost intact, the civil authorities surrender all non-fighting vessels as they fear being massacred if they sunk merchant ships.
The Japanese are able to attack Los Angeles with long-range bombers from the captured airport.
The Occupation forces will have to rely on supplies, they entrenche themself to fight until the last man when the US comes back.
By April 1943, Belagerungen is sucessfull, southern caucase is under axis control. The Axis armies meets the Red Army in battle, win after a difficult and uncertain battle, advances to Moscow and encircle the city. Usefull part of the population and industry have already been evacuated to other cities, in particular Leningrad, Stalin is carefull in leaving only expendable elements to defend the city thus completeing his purges.
The city is turned mostly into a heap of ruines, millions of civilian casualties, axis forces have faced a tough fight besieging the city while facing Red Army counter-attacks.
The first functional jet fighter squadrons see action during the siege of Moscow.
Once the city is properly devastated, axis forces retreates toward more defensible positions, Hitler himself announces that the axis armies will keep to exclusively defensive warfare in the eastern front.
Over the course of 3 years, Hitler had come to a better grasp of the situation east and thought the axis had won numerous battles, the sucesses of 1940 had not been repeated. Twice, the Moscow campaign had almost failed, when it was estimated an attack on Leningrad risked to be met with defeat he decided to abandonne it.
It was no secret since late 1940 that Stalin planned an attrition war, by settling for a defensive strategy Hitler thought he was turning the tables.
Stalin knew slightly better, he could still win the war of attrition against the axis but understood it would leave the Soviet-Union at the mercy of the Anglo-Americans after the war, the lack of oil supplies was also causing great difficulties and would not allow the swift advance of a massive army, the Red Army needed more mobility.
Long range bombers where hitting central asia from Iran and might soon reach the Urals, thus he decided to bid his time, accumulate strategic reserves of oil, construct a larger industrial base then a larger and faster army, then launch his own blitzkrieg.
In October, the european axis and the Soviet-Union signe a non-agression pact, both sides declares the event to be their victory, Soviet Union holds the Leningrad-Novogorod-Moscow-Stalingrad line and the eastern shore of the Volga, everything west is under axis control. Exchange of POWs between the Soviet-Union and the European axis follows.
Finland´s independence is recognised by the Pact, in exchange for the country to join the axis. Luftwaffe bases are set up there, the local industry is integrated into the general war effort and the Finnish army is requipped and begin a new serie of reforms and training.
Resistance in France and Spain falls sharply, communist resistance groups still launch raids to accumulate weapons but no longer actively oppose axis forces.
The Soviet-Union begin a nuclear program, as spies have discovered that the US became aware of the possibility of a nuclear bomb and started a massive research program in August 1943.
The axis fleet passed through the Suez canal and in spring 1943, launch an amphibious assault on western India, bypassing british defences along the Iranian border.
Meanwhile, the Japanese enteres India from the east and are supported by a revolution started by Hindu nationalists, the axis forces of asia and europe joins upp in north-central India.
Britain is forced to sign a peace treaty with Japan to continue fighting against the european axis, Indonesia is surrendered to Japan and the British still held southern India.
Full scale submarine warfare had put the country on the edge of starvation but things start to look better for Britain as German codes where broken once more.
With the war with the Soviet-Union over, the Luftwaffe began a campaign from Spain against Morocco, bomber raids against German cities had to be stopped for the time being.
Germany and Japan start a campaign of large-scale cooperation, greatly increasing the pace of Japanese engineering developpement.
1944: Axis armies from the Soviet-Union crosses through the caucase and Bulgaria, with better equippement, numbers and experience they are able to defeat easely the allied forces in Egypte, Lybia and Tunisia.
It is revealed that the British where able to breake German codes, as their armies anticipated every move of the axis armies. The campaign against Britain´s merchant shipping regain its lost efficiency but is not able to sink more ships than the Anglo-Americans can produce.
From Spain, the Luftwaffe obtain airsuperiority over Morocco, in May axis fleet begin the invasion of the Canaris islands. The allies attempt to send their own fleet but local Luftwaffe airsupermacy result in Axis victory despite the disparity of strenght.
Long range bombers launch raids from giant airbases in Lisbonne and Bordeaux.
With ports in North Africa and the Axis extensive control of the middle-east and the balkans, a large force is sent south of Egypt.
The US takes back Hawaii but the heavy losses there and the increased number of submarines and long range bombers operating in the pacific convinces the allies not to continue the pacific campaign until Germany have been defeated. With the ongoing nuclear project, it is reasoned that Japan can always be convinced to surrender with nuclear bombings at a later time using long range bombers, the Japanese hovewer have decided to take over the high altitude jet interceptor program.
The Japanese industry and army meanwhile reach a level similar to that of Germany and the country begin working on expanding that industrial base.
The battle of Central Africa (name?) is lost by the allies in October-November 1944, with years of total war and vaste reserves of oil the axis is able to advance swiftly into west africa with large mechanized forces.
1945: The Axis continues advancing into western, then into Congo. The USAAF and RAF begin raiding into continental europe once more, starting in March. Luftwaffe long range bombers hit New York once more in one raid, hit Washington in another, heavely damaging the White House.
As the US scrambled to reinforce its coastal defences, the european axis begin using the long range bombers on ports in austral Africa.
The Germans begin testing the first batteries of Wasserfall missiles against bomber squadrons.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wasserfall

One single missile is able to take out several bombers flying close by, something that will soon force allied bombers to fly further appart and be more vulnerable.
Other anti-aircraft missiles are being developped, some relying on infrared guidance, but it will take time before they are being mass-produced. Wasserfalls meanwhile will be produced at the rate of 900 a month by August.
The axis win another battle on June 11th (Bagration in Africa, with the axis as the Red Army and the allies as the axis).
Hitler expected the allies to concentrate on defending the remaining territories in Africa but to his surprise they give up the entire continent, they set 75% of their war effort into constructing large forces in southern England and launching bomber raids into Germany.
Seeing that an invasion across the Atlantic was exeedingly difficult and would result in a war that would loose the axis little, the allies decided to launch an invasion to which the best support could be given to. Then this invasion would be sucessfull, war would be over swiftly.
For a time, the axis spend much efforts organising their forces on the African continent, to fight a fighting retreate when the allies comes back.
In latter 1945, the allied war effort increases, the bombing campaign continues despite the increased losses caused by Wasserfall missiles and the new types of jet fighters.
The Axis begin recruting airmen from France, Spain, Belgium and Holland. There are also an increased number of volunteers for the bunkers and tunnels of the Atlantic Wall.
The Vietnamese Independentist Social Nationalist Order, supported by the Japanese, send 20 000 soldiers to Normandie as a gesture of good will toward the former coloniser.
French and Spanish volunteer armies numbered the hundreds of thousands by the end of the Soviet War, they both bypass the million before the end of 1945 along with casualties to bombings.

1946: Heavier ballistic missiles are fielded, among which are 30 tons teleguided missiles in bunkers of the Atlantic Wall to sink incoming allied ships.
First of the "amerika rakete" are used against cities in England, 100 tons and 41 meter long.
Guided missiles smash allied bombers and fighter jets prey on the survivors, inflicting heavy losses, the Axis High Kommand believed this would stop allied raids but the americans continued the bombings regarless, production closely compensating for the losses.
In spring of 1946, the first bomber crews are put on trial and secretly executed (offically sent to penal duty in Canada and Greenland) for refusing missions.
The allied command decide to diversify axis targets, first that includes hitting cities even deeper in Germany as these are belied to have fewer Wasserfall sites but that extends flight time over Germany.
Instead of working on heavier bombers, it is decided to settled for smaller but more numerous force, that would be more efficient payload-wise.
The Penal Fighter Squadron is formed, its purpose is to attack (or at least attempt to) anti-aircraft defences at close range during bomber raids and in general take the most dangerous missions. The idea have predictable results but many are surprised by the willingness and courage of more than a few convicts.
By early summer, Hamburg is a field of rubbles, raids are launched against Oslo, Copenhagen, Bruxelle, Paris, Amsterdam to destroy less defended infrastructures and manpower.
Madrid raid (it hit other cities as well) is almost unopposed, with very little in the way of jet fighters and only a few dozen Wasserfall batteries around the city against a raid of 10 000 aircrafts (according to allied newspapers), nearly 491 000 KIA.
A raid on Paris result in 300 000 MIA and KIA. The photos of the wrecked Eiffel Tower and the city burning in the background would be a most usefull propaganda tool.
Public in these countries becomes angered by the bombings, support for collaborationist parties rise, the governement maintained in power by Berlin soon enough no longer need the axis join occupation forces to support them.
Meanwhile, number of soldiers in southern England reached 8 millions. The Allied High Command intended to destroy coastal defences, using overwhelming artillery attacks and carpet bombing against eventual camouflaged forces along the coast and high caliber shells to destroy bunkers and other reinforced structures.
The Axis High Kommand strategy relies on tens of thousands of ballistic missiles that would be launched at allied beach heads at over Mach 5, other ballistic missiles would be teleguided against ships, followed by swarms of jet-bombs.
The Allies countered the axis missile threat with heavier ships, that would be far more difficult to sink, theoretically able to survive a direct hit by an A9 rocket at full speed.
The Axis countered with an anti-ship missile even more devastating than the A9 rocket, against infantery and smaller mechanised units the Axis would use rocket bomber aircrafts that would release a cluster of smaller mass produced missiles, devastating a large area. Another type of rocket-bomber would fill the air with flammable gas over a radius of several hundreds of meters. It is calculated that those who would survive the heat would be asphixiated by the lack of oxygene and carbon monoxide. Despite the progress in teleguided weaponery, the most powerfull and most manoeuvrable of these rocket-aircrafts would have to be piloted by a crew of 3-4 persons. Several hundreds of these crews would be kept ready at all times in bunkers across northern France, Belgium, Holland and north-western Germany.
The Anglo-Americans work on the Heavy Transportation Units and armoured amphibious vehicules begins, to transport allied forces through whatever awaited them on the shores of France. +400 mm slopped armour no less.
In Arizona on the 9th of August, the first Plutonium bomb was detonated, 9 weeks later the first Uranium bomb was tested too, illuminating the Silesian winter night.
Over 6 years of join scientifical and technical cooperation where paying off at last.
Heinrich Himmler had been the first to believe in this particular possibility, even when Albert Speer and the group scientists who had presented it to him where themself still lacking certitude, not exactly seeing things like he did. It would indeed never had started in the first place without his constant insistence, nearly every day he had to use his position to prevent it from being hindered in one way or the other.
By the time the Soviet-Union sued for peace it was the biggest single weapon project of the Axis, all doubts on the possibility of a nuclear bomb had been lifted. Millions of expendable elements and their famillies, that would probably have been eliminated otherwise, had been drafted to expand the underground facilities for Himmler´s great project.
In the enthusiasm following the end of the Soviet War even greater efforts where devoted to it but only insistence from himself, Goebbels, Albert Speer, Reinhard and Manstein had kept it so.

 

[a world without tins]

A POD may take place in 1931, (?) where the Strasser brothers are not purged from the NSDAP, and Goebbells crucially supports them. Hitler may or may not be used as a convieient figurehead afterwards, or merely disposed of.
The diff here would be that the Nazis would then take a far more "socialist" leaning path (remember its the national socialist German workers party) which may radically improve their ability to cooperate, at least superficially.

 

[Wyragen-TXRG4P]

Continuation.

The allies attempts to invade France but the attack is eventually contained and loose momentum.
Atomic attacks are launched against German cities but retaliation hit Britain with neurotoxic gas and radioactive aerosols, British governement attempt to leave the war but the US army intervenes, takeover is far from peacefull.
The Silverbird rocket-aircrafts are finally launched, hit US cities in the east coast at 3 kilometres a second, some transport a nuclear bomb, the US ask for an armistice.
Britain regain some of its colonies in Africa but Axis France retain much of its colonies and Germany regain colonies lost in 1914-1915.
Japan forme its own integrated fighting force with the former european colonies, invades China a few years after the war.
Cold war between the axis powers, the Soviet-Union and the Anglo-Americans begin.

 

[I Blame Communism]

A POD may take place in 1931, (?) where the Strasser brothers are not purged from the NSDAP, and Goebbells crucially supports them. Hitler may or may not be used as a convieient figurehead afterwards, or merely disposed of.
The diff here would be that the Nazis would then take a far more "socialist" leaning path (remember its the national socialist German workers party) which may radically improve their ability to cooperate, at least superficially.

Of course, they might decide that orthodox-fasict, Austria-supporting, Tiroler-oppressing, ex-Entente Italy is a less worthy object of "co-operation" than the USSR. I don't think it would be hard for a Strasserite Germany to replace Untermenschen and Lebensraum ideas with the Soviet Union as a smenovekh state of Germany's historical ally Russia...

Now that is a real nightmare.

 

[a world without tins]

Of course, they might decide that orthodox-fasict, Austria-supporting, Tiroler-oppressing, ex-Entente Italy is a less worthy object of "co-operation" than the USSR. I don't think it would be hard for a Strasserite Germany to replace Untermenschen and Lebensraum ideas with the Soviet Union as a smenovekh state of Germany's historical ally Russia...

Now that is a real nightmare.

Scary one. Is this a sustainable pod, with Soviet- Nazi cooperation in the early 30s? I suppose that twenties German/Soviet clandestine co-operation a la ATL, could be factored in?

 

[Wyragen-TXRG4P]

Bigger threat, bigger reaction.



There is a Sovietic-Franco-English pact in August 1939, primary result is that Hitler decides to cancel any immediate attack against poland as a reaction.
Other effects is the increased cooperation between Germany, Italy, Hungaria, Slovakia and even Japan.
Goebbels denounce the collusion as proof that Nazist theories are right, that at last the plutocrats and capitalist forces have exposed themself to work hand-in hand with the bolcheviks.
The danger of this allian... collusion to the future of Germany is also heavely emphasied.
Polish governement is much angered by the pact too, keeps to the politic of refusing to side with the Soviet-Union under any circumstances and fear that a war with Germany would mean a take-over by the Soviet-Union.
Finally, Poland and Romania becomes relatively neutral by early 1940 late 39, counting on Germany guarantees against Soviet expansion in addition to Franco-English guarantees against german expansion.
Eventually, functional plans to deal with France where finally made by spring 1940.
Between May and July 1940, Germany launch a major offensive against Belgium and Holland in the west while keeping a temporary defensive position in the east, battle is much similar as IOTL in the initial phase.
Possibly, Japan receives enough information and invades Dutch Indonesia either soon after or before German invasion of metropolitan Holland.
Hitler might ask the Japanese to attack Dutch Indonesia so that the allies are ready to move into Holland/Belgium when the time comes.

Situation is different hovewer,
1) Hitler is aware it is probably going to be a long war[if not, it would be his official argument] and start full war mobilization as soon as the campaign start.
2) There is much more cooperation between the axis powers, even thought Italy is neutral in the short therm.
3) Effect of the Soviet-Union being in the war from the start. After Metropolitan France is overrune, governement flee to Alger, city becomes a temporary capital.
4) Poland, seeing fast-paced Dutch, French and Belgian defeats, doesn´t launch any major offensive. Polish gov might well decide it is better to side with the strongest or as in IOTL, flee the country as fast as possible.
5) The Soviet-Union declares war against Germany but initially, have no means of bringing the war to German territory, as Poland/Romania are either neutral or in the case of Poland, at war but [initially] refuse passage of the Red Army.
Possibly, there is an attempted Sovietic invasion of Romania to deprive the axis of the Ploesti oil fields.
6) The Red Army isn´t caught by surprise by German offensive after the fall of France but knowledge of German use of blitzkrieg tactics and general mobilisation of the economy only goes back a few months while IOTL, Stalin had begun a large mobilization starting in August 39 and had nearly 1 year to reflect on the defeat of France.
Thus, even if the success of operation Barbarossa isn´t met by a long shot, Hitler have a bigger chance of victory in the long run.

War with the Soviet-Union result in major gains of territories and a peace treaty Stalin is unlikely to betray in the next few years. Most important, the axis have a good idea of Sovietic capabilities and doesn´t underestimate the Red Army in the following years.

Churchill have taken power after the fall of chamberlain, his power and that of the pro-war faction is even stronger than IOTL, without BoB and France signing peace, attack on Mer-El-Kebir, Italy non-belligerent etc.
Once the Soviet-Union is out of the war, the UK and Free french gov believes that the axis can be resisted in the middle-east and North Africa. When the Italians enter the war, Italian armed forces are far better prepared and have many veterans from the Ostront.
Main axis push against the Anglo-French forces is from the balkans and the caucase into turkey, from turkey into Syria and Syria into Iraq and Palestine.
After the fall of the Suez canal, Spain decides to declare war, a dozen Dora-type guns are used on Gibraltar, bomber raids targets allied shipping and the meditteranean is completely closed to the allies.
Kriegsmarine is able to join the Regina Marina in the Mediterranean through Spanish waters.
Thus, allies eventually looses big in North Africa and the Middle-East, new governement come to power in London and negociate an end to the war.

A result of Churchill´s willingness to continue the war after Soviet defeat is Spain and Italy fully joining the axis, middle-east oilfields falling under axis control, a governement and people unwilling to engage in another war. That is enough to dissuade Stalin from beginning a war of revenge a few years later.


Cold war between the Soviet-Union and the axis, with the United States staying in the depression for 20 years, remaines economy weak 10-15 years further.
The empire is slowly decaying and eventually sides with Berlin between 1985 and 1991, all in the name of democracy and peace of course.
In 2010, United States is a corrupt hell-hole allied to a fascist mexico and a few batshit insane regimes in central america, US federale forces faces guerilla warfare against fundamentalist separatists in the bible belt. Washington weakly protest the expansion of the axis into the americas. Kriegsmarine training in the Gulf of Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, Uruguay, Canada, the Violet Revolution in Brazil etc.

 

[Biggy]

Hitler lets Hungary annex Slovakia in 1939, so they keep their borders shut to Poland and no Polish forces escape to the West.

Wow, what a striking example of historical misconception, no Polish forces escaped to west through Slovakia. They went through Romania which had 349 km border with Poland.

 

[Noravea]

I think the only way for Hitler to be more efficient, is for him and Mussolini on September 1st, 1939, while walking up a flight of stairs in Berchtesgaden fall off.

Both hit their heads, and all of a sudden gain common sense and listen to their Generals.