What about the Cuban or Iranian?
It will be bits of each. If you look at the situation right now, you have a new government that is moving between more freedom for the colonies / lower classes and less. This was the same under the Ayshunids but the Wazirate was built on power sharing between a much wider circle of interests than the old Sultanate. It is more beholden to colonial interests, middle-class interests etc. Once it betrays those interests one time too many, unrest is inevitable, its only what form it will take.