A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
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Welcome back and what an update to be given.
Very good news to see the allies have reached Warsaw, even though it is only recon at this point.
Interesting the German populace is at the point where they want British protection against the possibility of Polish/ Soviet forces.
Also post war politics is starting to play out with the situation regarding Czechoslovakia + France. Not to mention the question of how do we incorporate the Hungarians in the peace process.
Finally, good to see an Il Duce plan fail.
Very good news to see the allies have reached Warsaw, even though it is only recon at this point.
Interesting the German populace is at the point where they want British protection against the possibility of Polish/ Soviet forces.
Also post war politics is starting to play out with the situation regarding Czechoslovakia + France. Not to mention the question of how do we incorporate the Hungarians in the peace process.
Finally, good to see an Il Duce plan fail.
The German populace in Western Poland almost certainly know what their government has been doing in the so-called General Government and the rest of German occupied Poland over the last couple of years. They would also have heard rumours about what the Soviets have been doing as well.
At the very least, the Czechoslovakians are going to demand, and hopefully get, the return of ALL lands seized from their nation as a result of the Munich Agreement and subsequent invasion/occupation by both Nazi Germany AND Poland. Getting the parts ceded to and/or occupied by Hungary back will, however, be another story. They will also be expecting considerable compensation from Germany and favourable trade agreements from the Anglo-French to make up for Munich.
As for Il Duce, he is still digesting Libya and Ethiopia, has his claws into the Balkans, and actually has the time to rebuild, re-equip and train his armies. He has, somehow, been able to strengthen Italy's position, without having to commit any of his military to actual combat. He may even rethink his Greek adventure.
With Hitler and the key Nazis dead, the blame for the war is going to fall squarely on the Prussian Military Establishment and the German people for enabling the Nazis in the first place, after all, the Nazis were elected by the German people.
This means that a lot of German people are going to be forced from their homes on in a series of “border adjustments”, and that includes places like the Sudatenland and East Prussia.
There is going to be no “Clean Wehrmacht” myth springing up, or how because of the sheer amount of the industrialized mass genocide carried out IOTL that wasn’t done ITTL, there isn’t going to be the consensus effort of the Allies to separate the actions of the Nazi Party from the German people.
This means that a lot of German people are going to be forced from their homes on in a series of “border adjustments”, and that includes places like the Sudatenland and East Prussia.
There is going to be no “Clean Wehrmacht” myth springing up, or how because of the sheer amount of the industrialized mass genocide carried out IOTL that wasn’t done ITTL, there isn’t going to be the consensus effort of the Allies to separate the actions of the Nazi Party from the German people.
Hecatee
Donor
I could see East Prussia go fully to Poland, as a kind of compensation for Staline's "acquisitions", this would make a much simpler world after the fall of the USSR...
At least if OTL is any guide, no one will weep if the German population of East Prussia, Konigsberg area included, are forcibly 'repatriated' back to Germany. So it's quite, IMO, doable.
However, the funnier option is the British taking Konigsberg as a Crown Colony, along with Heligoland, so the UK can Gibraltar-Malta the Baltic as well!
There is already a Gibraltar of the Baltic, it is called Copenhagen.
My honest guess is that the amount ofGerman pre-war land in the east lost to Poland will be about the same as what it lost to Poland and the USSR iOTL, complete with the same population moves.
But the Germans living there are definitely welcoming of the British, and if they don't like something the British are doing, the British just offer to let the Polish Army take over administration.
Well no Brenner Pass debacle, so Mussolini avoids a worse embarsment than just being too late to prosper from Germany's collapse.
It will be interesting to see how the final peace is achieved with so much of Eastern Europe still having it's interwar governments and priorities. Hungrary is probably going to play hard ball with the Britain and France.
East Prussia could go either way in my opinion. The Poles are likely to get a piece of Germany but I could see the the Poles only getting the Southern portion of East Prussia which is the least German. . With out Soviet strategic interests, I don't think there will be much stomach for population transfers amongst Britain and France where Germans aren't a minority or about equal the portion of the population. The Sudeten Germans are going, going, gone though.
It will be interesting to see how the final peace is achieved with so much of Eastern Europe still having it's interwar governments and priorities. Hungrary is probably going to play hard ball with the Britain and France.
East Prussia could go either way in my opinion. The Poles are likely to get a piece of Germany but I could see the the Poles only getting the Southern portion of East Prussia which is the least German. . With out Soviet strategic interests, I don't think there will be much stomach for population transfers amongst Britain and France where Germans aren't a minority or about equal the portion of the population. The Sudeten Germans are going, going, gone though.
Another thought in terms of border adjustments. iTTL the Hungarians invaded Austria. While they won't want any of Vienna or its suburbs, farther south along the border, the current state of Burgenland in the Country of Austria was part of Hungary within Austria Hungary and is part of what is considered lost due to the Trianon/Saint-Germain treaties. At this point that was *less* than 20 years ago. I don't know whether Austria as the first victim is as strong as iOTL...
I'm sure the British would feel much more comfortable if they could get ships into the Baltic, but I'm not sure that they are *that* much more anxious to remove any mines preventing access than the Danes are and I'm not sure whether the Danes could use *that* much help.
Of course allowing access to the Baltic allows for shipping into *Leningrad*, but every silver lining has a cloud.
And as for Heligoland, I'm not sure there would be the same desire to take it from Germany. With continual access to the European Mainland and less time to develop the long distance Bomber, Heligoland would have been less of a speedbump for the British. Could even be the last part of Germany to Surrender.
Of course allowing access to the Baltic allows for shipping into *Leningrad*, but every silver lining has a cloud.
And as for Heligoland, I'm not sure there would be the same desire to take it from Germany. With continual access to the European Mainland and less time to develop the long distance Bomber, Heligoland would have been less of a speedbump for the British. Could even be the last part of Germany to Surrender.
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Driftless
Donor
I'm thinking that the German mine fields would be heaviest north of Kiel and across the Odenssee, and another series of belts across the Baltic east of Konigsberg (against Soviet subs) . The British would have been air-dropping mines in the approaches to those German ports within range.
I was first thinking the Germans would want several wide shipping lanes to Swedish ports, but the Swedes aren't under German thumbs in this universe, so maybe not
I'd also suspect, any surving German vessels in the Baltic that could be converted to mine sweeping would be commandeered for that chore.