Great TL so far!
While my knowledge of ACW is limited, from my perspective it looks very plausible. PoD (as I understand it, MD Governor Election that was very controversial and close IOTL goes the other way and Groome is elected instead of Hicks) is minor enough and believable and its consequences are explored methodically and fairly. Unlike most CSA TLs I have seen on this site this TL is not ASBish in any way: yes CSA does considerably better than IOTL but this is entirely justified by PoD (if anything Confederacy could have done a bit better and it would still be plausible). Please keep up your outstanding work on this TL, I will eagerly wait for updates.
While we all hold our breaths for what Robert E. Lee would be able to do on the eastern front, I have a couple of questions and speculations:
1. Since according to post #58 in October 1862 Unionists already act against civilians in Buckeystown and fight Gilmor’s partisans in southern Frederick in the Autumn of 1862, one can assume that Union was able to recapture most of Frederick County almost immediately after Jackson’s Hagerstown campaign (second half of August 1862). Is this a correct assumption?
While it is certainly possible, Jackson was able to secure passes over Blue Ridge and majority of McClellan’s army was probably diverted to trying to break CSA defense along Gunpowder (which happened in September 1862). Obviously, majority of Confederate forces was likewise occupied near Towson defending mountain passes requires a lot less troops than seizing them.
Moreover wouldn’t taking Frederick back in such a swift manner secure McClellan’s position a bit despite the failure at Towson?
Originally I thought that there is a typo in post #58 and the dates concerning partisans in southern Frederick are a year earlier than described (i. e. Gilmor’s actions in Autumn-Winter 1861, Buckeystown in October 1861 and Adamstown in January 1862).
However post #64 seems to contradict such an interpretation and reinforces the assumption about swift Union recapture of Frederick Valley in September-October 1862: Baltimore had food shortages in winter 1862-1863 (and Federal control of Frederick county is listed as one of major reasons for that) and Unionville, MD was captured by McClellan in November 1862 (while it can be captured from Thurmont or Uniontown in North Frederick which may well be under Federal control, capturing it from Frederick itself looks more natural).
So did the Federals indeed managed to recapture Frederick in September-October 1862?
2. It seems that US operation against CSA Coast are delayed by approximately 3 month comparing to OTL (New Orleans captured in July instead of April, Norfolk in August instead of May).
I am curious though was the Peninsula Campaign similarly delayed (thus starting in June and finishing in October) or was it completely butterflied away. While the fact that Union was able to capture Norfolk probably indicates that the Peninsula Campaign did happen (IOTL Norfolk was captured as part of the campaign), ITTL seizure of Norfolk might well be a separate action (after all the troops for Peninsular Campaign of OTL sailed from Alexandra and ITTL Alexandra and DC is controlled by Confederacy since June 1861).
Please excuse my question if it is a spoiler.
3. While changes in the Eastern Front compared to OTL are of course extremely important, changes in the Western Front seem to be dramatic as well. The facts that Missouri seceded, that Jackson’s militia was able to capture St Louis Arsenal and that Kentucky remained neutral for the whole winter and its neutrality was broken by Union, not Confederacy are all major.
It seems that the successes by Union in the West while happening along the similar lines to OTL are delayed by at least 8 month: while Confederate forces were pushed from Missouri into Arkansas, ITTL it happened by late 1862, unlike IOTL where it happened in late 1861 (at least in the Winter of 1861-1862 CSA still holds both Jefferson City and Kansas City; in March a bloody battle of Hermann Farm happens, which is probably located in Hermann, MO, on the right bank of Missouri River). Nashville is taken ITTL in October 1862 comparing to February 1862 of OTL.
If the delay in Union actions compared to OTL remains unchanged, Vicksburg would fall in first half of 1864 in time for Elections but just barely. Of course changes on the Western Front can be much bigger than simple delay compared to OTL.
One of the first major divergences can be immediately after the last update we have on the West (i. e. Nashville). IOTL Confederates conducted a major offensive in August-October 1862, capturing Frankfort, KY and coming pretty close to capturing Louisville. While extended Kentucky neutrality might mean that CSA forces in Tennessee ITTL began to concentrate later than IOTL, we can probably expect that CSA counteroffensive on the West happens in the end of 1862 or the beginning of 1863. If the counteroffensive happens along the same lines as IOTL Confederates may well enjoy greater success in Kentucky given changes ITTL. Or maybe it can be further west ITTL with recapture or encirclement of Nashville or even further West coordinating efforts with Missouri bushwhackers.
Sorry for being nitpicky and if my conjectures are premature or naïve. I do not have an extensive ACW knowledge, but your writing urged me to dive into the topic. Thanks again for this amazing TL!