Intriguing thoughts all.
IMHO the only prayer of a 32 County State is one where Home Rule squeaks in before the Great War.
Unrest is inevitable in the 'Infancy' of the new State but could be contained (for the few months before the Guns of August let rip) by swift and decisive action.
Once the War begins Ireland forms a National Government (with British pressure on the Unionists as required).
Conscription may not be as much of an issue as the War drags on, as long as it is an 'Irish' Government seeking to introduce it.
Wartime Coalition forges political bonds that, if anything, are more important than the shared sacrifices of the men at the Front.
Ireland as an active belligerent would demonstrate its willingness to play a constructive role within the Empire, allaying (some) Unionist fears.
The inevitable perception of British disregard for 'Colonial/Dominion' Forces would bind the 'Irish' ever closer.
If there were to be a Rising in such a Dominion of Ireland (which is possible but even more unlikely than OTL) the Government would probably be even more ruthless in suppressing it than the British, for obvious political reasons.
The only significant difference I can imagine is that the Ringleaders would be hanged rather than shot.
So, with or wthout a Rising, Ireland emerges from the Great War having redeemed its liberty with the blood sacrifice of the Western Front.
The Inter-War Years, the difficult 'Adolescence' of Ireland, are ones of economic hardship and political bickering but (compared to OTL) relative social harmony.
Keeping the two main communities on board would lead to the Irish State being a champion of Non-Sectarian Constitutionalism.
Opponents on both sides could be painted as 'Throwbacks', seeking to keep the People oppressed, clinging to the comforting shackles of history.
The rise of Fascism presents the greatest threat to the emerging State.
Irreconcilable Republicans/Loyalists might find themselves attracted to the ideology as an alternative to the 'Abominable Dominion'.
Obviously each would have very different ideas of their eventual goals but both might view the movement as the best way to abolish the Irish State.
Again the Common Enemy could help strengthen National Identity and social cohesion.
Given the Catholic Church's penchant for supporting Fascist regimes the eventual outbreak of the Second World War could be the final nail in the coffin of Heirarchical influence in Ireland.
The Second World War marks the end of Irelands' 'Adolescence' as a Nation State.
Given Irelands' experiences with Domestic Fascism they are a belligerent from the start, smoothing over whatever residual animosities may have persisted between Britain and Ireland.
During the War, Irelands' main contributions are manpower and foodstuffs.
Efforts would undoubtedly be made to add muscle to the economy but probably wouldn't show much return before the end of the War in Europe.
Nonetheless, Ireland finds itself with a surprising amount of influence Post War as the unofficial representative of the Minor Powers.
The ramifications of this would depend on how the War Effort itself had played out.
It would be conceivable that there could be significant Butterflies for the United Nations as well as NATO.
Waffling now.
Suffice to say Home Rule in Late 1913/Early 1914 seems the only way to a 32 County Ireland that doesn't descend into internicine conflict.
Active participation in the Great War provides the clearest route to that State surviving (and thriving).
Active participation in WWII would seem the most plausible means of Ireland as a Charter Member of NATO.
Falkenburg