32 county island of Ireland in NATO

[sparky42]

One way to get 32 counties, IMVHO, is this:

POD: Archhduke Franz Ferdinand doesn't get shot on schedule, lighting the powder train.

Thus, Home Rule doesn't get postponed due to the war.

Carston had plans to rebel against an Irish government--which would have been a bloody mess. There would have been dificulty putting his rebellion down, as there might have been British soldiers unwilling to fight.

As things are brewing--a Parliament in Dublin is formed, there's unrest, or even rebellion, in Protestant portions of Ulster, and things are on the edge of blowing up...someone else lights Europe's fuse.

With Europe going up in flames, Britian HAS to squelch the problems FAST--and the Dublin government now has firepower to make it easier for Britain to squish the Protestant rebels than the legitimate Dublin government.

Things could go from there, leading to a united Ireland postwar.

This would ned LOTS of work to make it a timeline--but perhaps something could be done...

While there was the Curragh mutiny in, I think if war hadn't been gathering the MOD would have relieved the officers and used other Imperial officers to carry out the orders.

The one problem of using force to suppress the Ulster area is that this would lead to significant problems after the war, I have the same doubts about a situation of the 26 counties getting the 6 after WW2, it's adding the Troubles to Ireland and would call for significant internal security, while reducing the productivity in Ulster.

 

[sparky42]

Mine counter measures vessels is certainly a big area where an Irish navy would be of use. One way this could play out would be to have Ireland as one of the major European destinations for Reforger

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exercise_REFORGER

This would imply both mine clearing abilities to cover the Irish coast and the assistance clearing keeping the Western UK British coast open as well. I am thinking along the lines of Shannon being the main destination- major roads then between Bantry bay and Shannon in the west and Rosslare and Dún Laoghaire in the east.

All of this implies some heavy US and UK investment

If Ireland is a main REFORGER destination then fighter cover would be vital and aircraft like the F-5 would surely be of use for the Irish with right enough US F-4s and later F-15 to keep unwelcome ivans away - Heck I love the irony of this seeing as Aeroflot set up shop in Shannon in the 80`s in OTL - Perhaps we would have seen this in Irish skies

A question I have is that this requires extra break of bulk points for the equipment. It would also require significant extra shipping hulls for the Ireland-UK/France route that would need to be financed and would be sitting idle otherwise. Wouldn't it be cheaper for NATO to take the Convoy's into France. All the Irish ports would need to be significantly expanded to support this as well. Would NATO pay for this?

I love the photo images of the Irish fighters, along with some of the ones in the Air and Space thread.

 

[BELFAST]

I cannot see Ireland as a 32 county democracy.
I could see a federal government with a central government but most law and taxes at provintial level.
each of the 4 province get their own government with a governor.(like American states).

I cannot see Ireland having any intrest in joining the wars between the Great powers.

I could see Ireland trying to persuade Britain to stay neutral.

 

[sparky42]

I cannot see Ireland as a 32 county democracy.
I could see a federal government with a central government but most law and taxes at provintial level.
each of the 4 province get their own government with a governor.(like American states).

I cannot see Ireland having any intrest in joining the wars between the Great powers.

I could see Ireland trying to persuade Britain to stay neutral.

It would depend on the POD as to how the structures of the Government would shake out, it could go many different ways.

As to Ireland joining the wars, even in OTL without conscription there was a reasonable Irish volunteer rate in both wars. Remember Redmond said Irish men should join up for Home Rule, if the bill came through before the War this might be even greater.

If you change Ireland's Government before WW1 then I think you could see involvement in WW2 and NATO following on from it.

 

[Pangur]

A question I have is that this requires extra break of bulk points for the equipment. It would also require significant extra shipping hulls for the Ireland-UK/France route that would need to be financed and would be sitting idle otherwise. Wouldn't it be cheaper for NATO to take the Convoy's into France. All the Irish ports would need to be significantly expanded to support this as well. Would NATO pay for this?

I love the photo images of the Irish fighters, along with some of the ones in the Air and Space thread.

REFROGER would have used existing cargo vessels (military and civilian) and troop ships what have you. The key difference was that they would now be crossing the Atlantic in either a war or pre-war situation. Right enough the key ports in OTL were in France and I think Belgium and Holland. There was a number of ports in the UK ear marked as well.

The idea would certainly cost a fair bit however it would have given NATO ports in Europe as far out of the reach of the WP as possible

 

[Pangur]

As to Ireland joining the wars, even in OTL without conscription there was a reasonable Irish volunteer rate in both wars. Remember Redmond said Irish men should join up for Home Rule, if the bill came through before the War this might be even greater.

I just thought of something re conscription - having home rule of an acceptable form in Ireland would have meant that when the first of the two plebiscites in Aussie on conscription may well have passed as the Irish Catholic support against it would not be there

 

[sparky42]

REFROGER would have used existing cargo vessels (military and civilian) and troop ships what have you. The key difference was that they would now be crossing the Atlantic in either a war or pre-war situation. Right enough the key ports in OTL were in France and I think Belgium and Holland. There was a number of ports in the UK ear marked as well.

The idea would certainly cost a fair bit however it would have given NATO ports in Europe as far out of the reach of the WP as possible

I get that but what I meant was that during this period you have about 6-12 Ro-RO's on the Irish-UK routes (some small and god awful if you stick to OTL) and another couple for the France route. So you might have hardware stocking up in Ireland instead of getting close to the combat area.

There's also the issues of the Irish ports. Most would need significant upgrades in both berthing, depth and other support and you have to deal with the issue of them being in built up areas. How easy would it be getting large convoys of equipment through Dublin to Dún Laoghaire for example, Rosslare is slightly easier provided you build a Motorway to it. I just think that Ireland/NATO would have to make fairly substantial investments in Road and Port infrastructure before they could even attempt a Reforger. There's also the question of time, even with RO-RO's how much time would it take to offload travel across Ireland and reload and set off again, all while the risk of attack will disrupt shipping and transport.

Would it be quicker to make the run straight to the West coast of France instead?

 

[Pangur]

I get that but what I meant was that during this period you have about 6-12 Ro-RO's on the Irish-UK routes (some small and god awful if you stick to OTL) and another couple for the France route. So you might have hardware stocking up in Ireland instead of getting close to the combat area.

There's also the issues of the Irish ports. Most would need significant upgrades in both berthing, depth and other support and you have to deal with the issue of them being in built up areas. How easy would it be getting large convoys of equipment through Dublin to Dún Laoghaire for example, Rosslare is slightly easier provided you build a Motorway to it. I just think that Ireland/NATO would have to make fairly substantial investments in Road and Port infrastructure before they could even attempt a Reforger. There's also the question of time, even with RO-RO's how much time would it take to offload travel across Ireland and reload and set off again, all while the risk of attack will disrupt shipping and transport.

Would it be quicker to make the run straight to the West coast of France instead?

There would have to be a huge spend on port and road infrastructure however the US were never afraid to spend money. I do agree that the convoys would must likely head for Europe rather than Ireland however it might be feasible that the Irish ports are second ports rather then primary ports as it were. The question about RO-RO ferries to the UK is a good one. Agreed that whats there right now is near enough useless however having a few more is not impossible and if the war in Europe went bad enough - fall of France type bad then any ferries that survived and escaped would be available.

I have to admit the idea is pretty weak

 

[sparky42]

There would have to be a huge spend on port and road infrastructure however the US were never afraid to spend money. I do agree that the convoys would must likely head for Europe rather than Ireland however it might be feasible that the Irish ports are second ports rather then primary ports as it were. The question about RO-RO ferries to the UK is a good one. Agreed that whats there right now is near enough useless however having a few more is not impossible and if the war in Europe went bad enough - fall of France type bad then any ferries that survived and escaped would be available.

I have to admit the idea is pretty weak

I agree the US might write the check for it but we're talking at least 2 major motorways across the country and massive Port upgrades, to me it seems a bit much given Ireland's position in the Reforger route.

Perhaps instead have Ireland as the center for the Air lift effort of the Reforger? Use commercial aircraft into Shannon and then Military lift closer to the front (which might lead to increase orders for the Belfast perhaps?)

Your point about the Conscription Vote is interesting, there are a lot of potential butterflies from a better resolution to the Irish Question. The bit I was suggesting in my first post might see 2 more Cruisers in the Fleet for example which could allow for different options in battles during WW2 or maybe a couple of extra Hurricane Squadrons in the Battle of Britain. Or maybe as part of the Anglo Irish deals the Graving docks in Cork are enlarged to have a couple of Cruiser size docks as well which would have effects on UK building situation (this would leave Belfast as the shipyard and Cork as maintenance) . And if Convoy losses were reduced how stronger would the UK be coming out of WW2, particularly in the early days of the War.

 

[Pangur]

1 I agree the US might write the check for it but we're talking at least 2 major motorways across the country and massive Port upgrades, to me it seems a bit much given Ireland's position in the Reforger route.

Perhaps instead have Ireland as the center for the Air lift effort of the Reforger? Use commercial aircraft into Shannon and then Military lift closer to the front (which might lead to increase orders for the Belfast perhaps?)

Airlift makes far more sense for sure

Your point about the Conscription Vote is interesting, there are a lot of potential butterflies from a better resolution to the Irish Question. The bit I was suggesting in my first post might see 2 more Cruisers in the Fleet for example which could allow for different options in battles during WW2 or maybe a couple of extra Hurricane Squadrons in the Battle of Britain. And if Convoy losses were reduced how stronger would the UK be coming out of WW2, particularly in the early days of the War.

Two more cruisers? cant see why not after all New Zealand was able to pay for two in ww1. Same case of not stronger for the squadrons. I have read about Churchill at one stage wanting to have a Shamrock squadron formed

 

[sparky42]

Two more cruisers? cant see why not after all New Zealand was able to pay for two in ww1. Same case of not stronger for the squadrons. I have read about Churchill at one stage wanting to have a Shamrock squadron formed

My thoughts were after the Washington Treaty and the St. Patrick being cancelled maybe a County being order (perhaps through a deal with the UK for funding and using H&W) then maybe some new build destroyers and then at least 1 extra Town class ( maybe on the first build in '34), all of which could be brought to bare in the early naval battles.

Mainly I'm willing to budget a big part of the new Irish states budget to social issues, both dealing with underlying hostility to any Dominion and also the issue of the Crash as well, I might be being overly negative, if so factor in maybe another squadron and another Cruiser under building perhaps)

Depending on what you wanted I'm sure that Ireland could field a strong Shamrock Wing if they wanted to depending on how it developed. I had thoughts of Coastal Command getting more resources and the fighter being last generation before a crash program for war. Maybe Shamrock Wing lead by Wing Commander Paddy Finucane at some point.

My point is though that a better resolution to the Irish Question could have many ripples throughout the interwar and early war period

 

[Pangur]

My thoughts were after the Washington Treaty and the St. Patrick being cancelled maybe a County being order (perhaps through a deal with the UK for funding and using H&W) then maybe some new build destroyers and then at least 1 extra Town class ( maybe on the first build in '34), all of which could be brought to bare in the early naval battles.

Mainly I'm willing to budget a big part of the new Irish states budget to social issues, both dealing with underlying hostility to any Dominion and also the issue of the Crash as well, I might be being overly negative, if so factor in maybe another squadron and another Cruiser under building perhaps)

The question of budget spend is worth investigating further. I think we both don't see it as a black and white guns V butter. maybe build the ships in H&W and then fit them out in Cork?

Depending on what you wanted I'm sure that Ireland could field a strong Shamrock Wing if they wanted to depending on how it developed. I had thoughts of Coastal Command getting more resources and the fighter being last generation before a crash program for war. Maybe Shamrock Wing lead by Wing Commander Paddy Finucane at some point.

I mentioned the Shamrock squadron only to illustrate just how easy having a few fighter squadrons would be have. In the TL that we seem to building then yes for sure there would be a number of Coastal Command squadrons and most likely early enough as it prewar. Once the war starts then more coastal command and fighter squadrons.

My point is though that a better resolution to the Irish Question could have many ripples throughout the interwar and early war period

Very true and its only off late that I have realized just how many. Just never thought down those lines until I starting contributing to this site

 

[sparky42]

The question of budget spend is worth investigating further. I think we both don't see it as a black and white guns V butter. maybe build the ships in H&W and then fit them out in Cork?

I agree that the budget could be spent in ways to achieve both aims in improving Irish relations. but Cork would need investment before being able for the fitting out, the OTL yard only has the 2,000 ton graving dock at that time. I suggested a possible negotiated solution like the buoys to make up any short fall to the Irish Budget, perhaps as part of that a Cruiser Graving dock was built which would have other impacts. I'm just using the ship building as in the interwar period this would be vitally important I would think to H&W for business, which helps the situation in the north.

I mentioned the Shamrock squadron only to illustrate just how easy having a few fighter squadrons would be have. In the TL that we seem to building then yes for sure there would be a number of Coastal Command squadrons and most likely early enough as it prewar. Once the war starts then more coastal command and fighter squadrons.

Sure my feeling is if you have a dominion situation (or whatever it ends up being) if you have about 3 squadrons of Coastal Command and 2-3 Squadrons of Fighter Command before the war ( with varying equipment levels) plus any training scheme plus a potential for a shadow factory system then Fighter Command and Coastal Command could be in have a small but significant improvement (along with being able to supply RAF with extra ground crew for example)

Very true and its only off late that I have realized just how many. Just never thought down those lines until I starting contributing to this site

Me to, even looking at this one topic I could come up with quite a few ripples that would be legitimate and highly interesting.

 

[Pangur]

I agree that the budget could be spent in ways to achieve both aims in improving Irish relations. but Cork would need investment before being able for the fitting out, the OTL yard only has the 2,000 ton graving dock at that time. I suggested a possible negotiated solution like the buoys to make up any short fall to the Irish Budget, perhaps as part of that a Cruiser Graving dock was built which would have other impacts. I'm just using the ship building as in the interwar period this would be vitally important I would think to H&W for business, which helps the situation in the north.

Could well be that it started with buoys or it could start earlier. If you want to keep peace in Ireland it can't be just a matter of spending money in Belfast, it means spend in the South as well. If the POD here has dominion status prior to ww1 then I can see that investment happening.

Sure my feeling is if you have a dominion situation (or whatever it ends up being) if you have about 3 squadrons of Coastal Command and 2-3 Squadrons of Fighter Command before the war ( with varying equipment levels) plus any training scheme plus a potential for a shadow factory system then Fighter Command and Coastal Command could be in have a small but significant improvement (along with being able to supply RAF with extra ground crew for example)

The shadow system is most certainly worth looking at seeing as most of Ireland was out of the range of the Luftwaffe and the bits that were just in range would have to get at seeing at England is physically in the way. _ Cripes that may well mean that later on that Chain home would have been expanded down part of the South coast!

Me to, even looking at this one topic I could come up with quite a few ripples that would be legitimate and highly interesting.

Care to share?

 

[sparky42]

Could well be that it started with buoys or it could start earlier. If you want to keep peace in Ireland it can't be just a matter of spending money in Belfast, it means spend in the South as well. If the POD here has dominion status prior to ww1 then I can see that investment happening.

Sure, there are plenty of opportunities for investment in the South from this period onwards, you could easily build 2 Cruiser length Graving docks and a larger Destroyer size one in Verolme, which would have other ramifications. If Ireland is richer the Ford plant in Cork might see more investment due to higher sales ( giving another auto plant for a shadow industry). Foynes/Shannon might see much more investment as a commercial flying base (which again has knock on's), I'm sure there's more.

The shadow system is most certainly worth looking at seeing as most of Ireland was out of the range of the Luftwaffe and the bits that were just in range would have to get at seeing at England is physically in the way. _ Cripes that may well mean that later on that Chain home would have been expanded down part of the South coast!

Not just Shadow manufacturing, if you have enlarged docks in Cork could some of the servicing be moved from the UK where the ships are exposed to bombings to Ireland, meaning perhaps quicker turn arounds for some ships?

Care to share?

Well first ripple, with Coastal Command up and running in Ireland Courageous is sent further out into the Atlantic on it's hunter-killer patrol avoiding U-29. Result extra Carrier for a period of time.

St. Patrick (County class) and Dublin (Town class) are patrolling close to Norway waiting for the Allied invasion fleet to join them and intercept the Bergen taskforce. Norway would still be lost but maybe the Germans lose some light cruisers and troops in the event.

When Operation Dynamo happens you have the Irish small boats and the Irish ferries ships that could quicken the evacuation, maybe a couple of the OTL Destroyers aren't sunk.

Battle of Britain you have 3-4 more squadrons of Hurricanes from the start of the battle, Ireland manages to keep the squadrons at about 75% which ripples to the losses in the Battle on both sides.

As the ripples go onwards, maybe Courageous gets some fighters into Malta early, maybe there's an extra Carrier to join Illustrious in the attack of Taranto, more damage to the Italian navy. Perhaps some more forces in the Greece campaign, the allies still lose but maybe Crete is held due to the Irish forces being there.

Those are just some quick thoughts and could have significant ripples in the early war period.

 

[Tyr]

I cannot see Ireland having any intrest in joining the wars between the Great powers.

I could see Ireland trying to persuade Britain to stay neutral.

I'm not so sure.
There were huge numbers of Irish volunteers in WW1, WW2 and afterwards.
Also, perhaps a key part of what soured Ireland on war and drove it on the patch to neutrality was experiencing a rather nasty and prolonged civil war, get rid of that and there's no reason Ireland would be just as supportive of Britain as other dominions. More so in fact since Ireland can't believe it'll be left alone or stand to gain the north if Britain is beaten in this case.

One way to get 32 counties, IMVHO, is this:

POD: Archhduke Franz Ferdinand doesn't get shot on schedule, lighting the powder train.

Thus, Home Rule doesn't get postponed due to the war.
..

Definitely seems the easiest way.
Though the butterflies in this alternative ww1 would be...intruiging and really rather dwarf the point of the change.

 

[sparky42]

Definitely seems the easiest way.
Though the butterflies in this alternative ww1 would be...intruiging and really rather dwarf the point of the change.

On that, why was 2 years selected for the Lord's delaying power? Was there some reason for this or was it just what the Government selected, if you change the period then you keep WW1 the same while changing Ireland's history

 

[Falkenburg]

The 2 years is probably one of those political compromises that have profound consequences no-one properly considered.
Opponents probably wanted the 'Delay' to be until after a subsequent General Election.
Supporters probably wanted all 'Delays' to be the same as that which applies to 'Money Bills'.

Thinking about the it, that could provide a pleasingly simple POD.
All it would have taken would have been for the Government to secure a Speakers Certificate that said the Home Rule Bill was a 'Money Bill'.

That would have meant the Lords could only delay it by a month, under the Parliament Act 1911.
It's actually quite a reasonable argument to make, seeing as this is Home Rule as originally conceived we're talking about.

So we could have Home Rule passed in 1912, before people had too much time to get their danders up.
The Solemn League and Covenant, the main batches of illegal arms, even the Curragh Incident are all aborted by this sneaky/deft manouver.

Even allowing some lead time you could still have a Home Rule Parliament up and running from January 1914.
A few months of teething problems, followed by the bloody distraction of The Great War and we're off to the races.

Falkenburg

 

[sparky42]

I've been giving some thought to what structure Ireland would adopt for it's air force under the Dominion route.

I've pointed out the 24 Shorts ASW aircraft that was around in 53-57 perhaps Ireland keeps them and then transitions to a smaller number of Nimrods when the RAF starts to field them in '69 (perhaps a number around 6-9).

In terms of transports I do think the Belfast might have support, maybe a few ordered along with the RAF order and pick a few more or parts when the RAF lets them go in the 70's. (maybe around 6 and use them to support NATO allies)

For tankers I think they might go US anyway, maybe a half a dozen KC 135's (I'm sure that the US would be eager to support this given Ireland's position), this would have effects on the RAF and their tanker needs as well I would think, with some of the Valiants not being needed.

For AWAC's you could have some Avro Shackleton's (about 4-6 perhaps allowing for 1 to be up always), maybe avoid the misadventure of the Nimrod AEW and go early to the E-3 in the early 80's, and get a couple for NATO use.

I think this gives you a good level of support airframes that's realistic and would have many benefits for NATO given Ireland's position.

The next bit is a bit far out but Im going to put it out there, fighters. Could you see last generation fighters from the UK for example, say Ireland buys the last 2 dozen production models of a run, this way they get the best developed airframe while also being able to see which airframe is best in the previous Generation, this would give Ireland something while not being crazily expensive.

The other option is what were the European Nations SEAD airframes, would that be a reasonable force usage for Ireland again maybe 2 squadrons worth of US aircraft instead of the British fighters above. Or CAS options instead

 

[Nicola]

I've been giving some thought to what structure Ireland would adopt for it's air force under the Dominion route.

I've pointed out the 24 Shorts ASW aircraft that was around in 53-57 perhaps Ireland keeps them and then transitions to a smaller number of Nimrods when the RAF starts to field them in '69 (perhaps a number around 6-9).

concievably although i suspect the number would be closer to 6 than 9 )

In terms of transports I do think the Belfast might have support, maybe a few ordered along with the RAF order and pick a few more or parts when the RAF lets them go in the 70's. (maybe around 6 and use them to support NATO allies)

alternatively transalls as a cheaper option than hercs

For tankers I think they might go US anyway, maybe a half a dozen KC 135's (I'm sure that the US would be eager to support this given Ireland's position), this would have effects on the RAF and their tanker needs as well I would think, with some of the Valiants not being needed.

For AWAC's you could have some Avro Shackleton's (about 4-6 perhaps allowing for 1 to be up always), maybe avoid the misadventure of the Nimrod AEW and go early to the E-3 in the early 80's, and get a couple for NATO use.

or the NATO E3 component has a couple more aircraft and base in Ireland as well as Luxembourg ...

I think this gives you a good level of support airframes that's realistic and would have many benefits for NATO given Ireland's position.

The next bit is a bit far out but Im going to put it out there, fighters. Could you see last generation fighters from the UK for example, say Ireland buys the last 2 dozen production models of a run, this way they get the best developed airframe while also being able to see which airframe is best in the previous Generation, this would give Ireland something while not being crazily expensive.

The other option is what were the European Nations SEAD airframes, would that be a reasonable force usage for Ireland again maybe 2 squadrons worth of US aircraft instead of the British fighters above. Or CAS options instead

an off the wall option here would be the Irish air corps flying Harriers as their sole combat airframe after a short period on Hunters or some such with the Sea Harrier being used in the air defence role from land bases ( adding further fun the 'mixed fighter force' idea which gained momentum in the 1970s and 80s in NATO using phantom/ f15 / tornado ADV as flight leads and thena number of smaller more austere aircraft as carriers for extra missles and gun packs - the RAF version had the weapons training Hawks as the carriers of extra missiles ) and GR versions as it;s 'attack' aircraft ...