2018 Turtledoves - Best Cold War to Contemporary Timeline Poll FINAL

[King of the Uzbeks]

Notice that he did not in the slightest.

He as far as I can tell, agreed to continued minority rule

Mandela would not do that.

 

[RySenkari]

Last year it was simply people promoting their works through memes.

Awww, what the hell. Let's make this thread great again!

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

He as far as I can tell, agreed to continued minority rule

Mandela would not do that.

At the current time, black voters constitute a majority of registered voters. He agreed to essentially: continued anti-communism, full economic and political rights, and a gradual move towards universal suffrage. Each year since 1980 saw more and more blacks added to the voter rolls, and army service meant automatic citizenship.
Your argument shows you didn' read the TL

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

Again a logical fallacy and straw man argument. This would be true if I'd said anything about your source material but my only comments have been in response to your comments about the story - which I have read.

I have made my defense in the original thread. For people to start shitposting it all over again without reading the source material says more about them than me

 

[RyanF]

At the current time, black voters constitute a majority of registered voters. He agreed to essentially: continued anti-communism, full economic and political rights, and a gradual move towards universal suffrage. Each year since 1980 saw more and more blacks added to the voter rolls, and army service meant automatic citizenship.
Your argument shows you didn' read the TL

Your explanation shows your research probably didn't go beyond the top of the Wikipedia article.

 

[Heavy]

At the current time, black voters constitute a majority of registered voters. He agreed to essentially: continued anti-communism, full economic and political rights, and a gradual move towards universal suffrage. Each year since 1980 saw more and more blacks added to the voter rolls, and army service meant automatic citizenship.
Your argument shows you didn' read the TL

Nelson Mandela was at least sympathetic to communism, though. Someone more knowledgeable will correct me but I'm pretty sure he was a member of the South African Communist Party for a time (a cursory glance on Wikipedia informs me that he was very likely a member of its central committee in hte 1960s).

Lots of African liberation movements were influenced by communist ideas even if they themselves were not necessarily communist.

 

[Callan]

Nelson Mandela was at least sympathetic to communism, though. Someone more knowledgeable will correct me but I'm pretty sure he was a member of the South African Communist Party for a time.

He was briefly, but his membership was less out of ideology and more out of pragmatism; seeking alliances with fellow opponents of Apartheid. He certainly was not opposed to working with Communists.

 

[King of the Uzbeks]

At the current time, black voters constitute a majority of registered voters. He agreed to essentially: continued anti-communism, full economic and political rights, and a gradual move towards universal suffrage. Each year since 1980 saw more and more blacks added to the voter rolls, and army service meant automatic citizenship.
Your argument shows you didn' read the TL

If black voters are a majority why isn't the government just passing laws giving equal rights automatically?

 

[Heavy]

He was briefly, but his membership was less out of ideology and more out of pragmatism; seeking alliances with fellow opponents of Apartheid. He certainly was not opposed to working with Communists.

Fair enough, but I think it would be fair to say that, regardless of partisan affiliation, Mandela's ideology meant that the looming threat of the red menace probably wouldn't compel him to go along with Diet Apartheid (same great taste!) if anything was going to.

Pragmatically, how would communism in South Africa have threatened his position such that he would align himself with a government and ideology which is founded on the principle - and Andries Treurnicht was a literal, no-bullshitting white supremacist - that he is worth less than they are?

It comes off like the idea of a Jew supporting the Nazis or Martin Luther King supporting Jim Crow - patently absurd.

 

[Napoleon IV]

Nelson Mandela was at least sympathetic to communism, though. Someone more knowledgeable will correct me but I'm pretty sure he was a member of the South African Communist Party for a time (a cursory glance on Wikipedia informs me that he was very likely a member of its central committee in hte 1960s).

He secretly joined them in the early 60s, but as @Callan said it wasn't because he was a full-blown Communist. In addition the ANC and the South African Communist Party were allied in the struggle against apartheid, and several major members of the ANC/Umkhonto we Sizwe were members of the SACP. Oh, and Communist nations such as the USSR helped fund and train Umkhonto we Sizwe.

 

[Sulemain]

At the current time, black voters constitute a majority of registered voters. He agreed to essentially: continued anti-communism, full economic and political rights, and a gradual move towards universal suffrage. Each year since 1980 saw more and more blacks added to the voter rolls, and army service meant automatic citizenship.
Your argument shows you didn' read the TL

Your argument shows you know nothing about Mandela or South Africa. If you actually took the time to examine primary source material, you'll see that the CIA in the 70s briefed Carter that, as well armed and prosperous as white South Africa was, that it would take a hell of a lot for them to come to terms.

Your arguing that white South Africa from a position of strength, would offer concessions that in reality it wouldn't, to a man who in reality wouldn't take what's being offered.

Apartheid wasn't something that could be dismantled piecemeal. It had to go all at once. And your suggesting that white South Africa would dismantle it piecemeal? That's absurd.

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

That's it, I'm done. I'm not going to feed the trolls anymore. If you like the TL, I would appreciate your vote. If you like NSS as I do, feel free to vote for them. Just don't let anyone bully you to vote one way or to exercise your creativity as some wish. 90% of the TLs on the site wouldn't exist based on the standards some seek to adhere to.
To all the fans of NDCR, God bless you and thank you for the support.

 

[Kodoku]

That's it, I'm done. I'm not going to feed the trolls anymore. If you like the TL, I would appreciate your vote. If you like NSS as I do, feel free to vote for them. Just don't let anyone bully you to vote one way or to exercise your creativity as some wish. 90% of the TLs on the site wouldn't exist based on the standards some seek to adhere to.
To all the fans of NDCR, God bless you and thank you for the support.

And there you go. You just can't accept criticism of your TL.

 

[SsgtC]

It comes off like the idea of a Jew supporting the Nazis

May I direct your attention to Emil Maurice. His great-grandfather was a Jew. Therefore, under Nazi racial laws, he was a Jew. He was also one of Hitler's closest friends dating back to 1919 and was SS Member #2. Only Hitler had a lower member number than he did (#1). So stranger things have happened...

 

[Sulemain]

And not to mention the other weird shit, like the profoundly uncomfortable implications of Neo-Incan terrorists practising human sacrifice.

 

[CalBear]

You have NO IDEA how little I want to get involved in another one of these threads. That being said folks are creating a situation where I'm going to have to act.

Stop now gang. Be a bad thing if I have to come back here.

 

[Heavy]

In any event, I don't know why you're upset - you're still going to win Best Finished TL.

 

[lord caedus]

Since No Southern Strategy and Presidential are leading ATM, I'd like to boost Lazarus, Icarus and Canadian Politics, which is criminally under supported given how well CanadianTory writes about politics both in Canada and outside of it.

Notice that he did not in the slightest.

I have made my defense in the original thread. For people to start shitposting it all over again without reading the source material says more about them than me

I've pulled up the actual update to your TL where Mandela is freed, starting from immediately after TTL's Soweto riots, under the spoiler since it's long and I don't really think it's fair to post a whole post in from a contender to win in the actual thread:

Spoiler: New Deal Coalition Retained, 'Bewaring'

Treurnicht had always sided with the National Party’s hardliners. Overseeing the implementation of harsh means against officials in the Bantustans (areas of limited native autonomy within South Africa created by Prime Minister Voerword to curb black nationalism) known to shelter rebels as Deputy Foreign Minister, his leadership of the Transvaal Party kept it a bastion of Afrikaner nationalism. In his first speech as Prime Minister, Treurnicht highlighted “self-determination” as the “first, last, and only goal” of the Pretoria Government to massive applause. Soweto changed everything. Many had banded about what would happen if the blacks revolted en masse, but faced with the realistic possibility, Treurnicht was determined to head it off.

Thus, Treurnicht made the step of inviting five National Party ministers and officials he most trusted (all were close friends despite political differences) to Waterberg Ranch – his personal vacation residence – in northern Transvaal in September 1977. The participants, including him, were former Prime Minister B.J. Vorster, Finance Minister P.W. Botha, Cape Province Administrator Eugene Louw, Chief of the SADF General Staff Magnus Malan, and Information Minister Connie Mulder. The sole topic of conversation was how South Africa could maintain itself as a white-dominated nation while also heading off a native revolution against Pretoria. It grew… quite heated at times.

Over cold drinks and traditional South African braaivleis barbecue shared with their wives, ideas and accusations flew between the men in a heated debate on the pressing problem. The attendees were split on what needed to be done. Botha and Louw advocated reforms to lessen the burden Apartheid created, while Malan and Mulder pushed for an even more hardline stance to cripple and wipe out the African nationalists. Keeping things from getting out of hand were Treurnicht and, surprisingly, the aging Vorster. What began to dawn on all of them was the precarious position South Africa was in, and the effort by Representative Medgar Evers in the United States to impose sanctions on South Africa for Apartheid (passing the House but stalling in the Senate) – it was increasingly worrisome because of the dependence Pretoria had on American arms and aid. Slowly but surely extreme positions on both sides were whittled away as they began to reach a consensus. After a week, Treurnicht and the other Waterberg Meeting participants had the outline of a plan:

Bewaring (preservation). It comprised of three main components that comprised of a mix between reform and doubling down – along with some out of the box solutions:

1. Versoening (Reconciliation): Without a carrot to provide the natives, they would only turn more toward armed insurrection and communist groups such as Umkhonto we Sizwe. Therefore, the South African Government and the National Party had to provide them some stake in the government at large. Infrastructure projects and increased funding for education (with lesson plans approved by the state) directed to improve the black and coloured communities would be prioritized. Certain opposition groups would be legalized if they swore allegiance to the Pretoria Government and rejected communism and socialism, as would a regulated right to protest. Also, blacks and coloureds proven loyal to the government would be granted citizenship (the initial target being 250,000 in 1979).

2. Herverdeling (Fracturing): The militarist policy being the brainchild of Malan, it would be the stick to Versoening’s carrot. Core among the policy shifts would be that not all Black Nationalist groups were equal. Political organizations such as the ANC weren’t threats per se to the state, while militant groups such as Umkhonto we Sizwe were. Thusly, a demonization and decapitation campaign would be waged against the latter, all propaganda efforts directed against them and toward the black population. The Bantustans would be given complete domestic autonomy (with control of all foreign and defense affairs by Pretoria) in exchange for support against the rebels. In addition, the most stubborn populations would be forcibly relocated either to the Bantustans or to friendly African governments.

3. Verwelkoming (Welcoming): Given that the white population was dwarfed by the natives, all effort to increase said population would be prioritized. Pro-child policies would be enacted, and immigration from European and Spanish-speaking nations would be basically rubber-stamped – with proper vetting to flesh out communists and leftists. Also, all Asians and South Asians would be given full citizenship, to create an additional group among the ruling class that would be loyal. These new citizens would be required to learn Afrikaans and assimilate into South African society.

The six men were hopeful that the plan would work. The only question would be how the legislature would take it.

-----------------------​

January 1, 1978. The day everything in South African changed. By order of Prime Minister Treurnicht, ANC leader Nelson Mandela was granted a full pardon for all crimes committed and was released from Robben Island prison. Inviting the entirety of the national and international media to cover the event, Treurnicht, Vorster, Malan, Botha, and the entire cabinet present to welcome Mandela along with his family. The event having been arranged beforehand, both Treurnicht and Mandela gave remarks to the press about how they hoped to heal the nation’s racial strife. Additionally, several moderate ANC politicians were given pardons as well, either let out of prison or returning from exile abroad – meanwhile, Chris Hani and Joe Slovo (another prominent guerrilla) had two million dollar bounties put on their heads, dead or alive. The public had a new face to hate.

If reaction to Mandela’s release had angered the House of Assembly, when Treurnicht and his cabinet brought the finalized Bewaring Plan to them all hell broke loose. The chamber in Pretoria was filled with the vilest of racial slurs, angry members calling out the Prime Minister, Botha, and Magnus Malan as “Kaffir Lovers” and “traitors to the volk.” United Party (the moderate conservative, anti-Apartheid party) leader Harry Schwarz denounced the plan as “genocide clothed in window dressing.” However, Treurnicht rammed the legislation through on a party-line vote. Furious, many far-right Afrikaners such as the Hero of Soweto Clive Derby-Lewis defected for the pro-Apartheid Herstigte Nasionale Party. But it was to no avail, for the National leadership had their policy victory. The mass enfranchisement of Asians and loyal blacks was law, as was the legalization of the ANC, the immigration bills, and the creation of twenty “Black Roll” seats that the newly citizen blacks were mandated to vote for.

As part of Breking, the deportations would commence to the Bantustans, which became fully independent on all but military and diplomatic issues (the largest being the Kwazulu Bantustan, Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi of the Zulus being a key ally of Pretoria). Ultimatums were delivered to Lesotho and Swaziland – both surrounded on all sides by South Africa – and both were forced to accede to tens of thousands of deportations to their territory, making them vassals of South Africa. Pro-communist intellectuals were shipped wholesale to Zambia and other communist states in exchange for whites living within them, while Mobutu, Idi Amin, Obama Sr., and Savimbi took thousands of refugees with open arms in exchange for military supplies. Magnus Malan brought in American C-130s and the collected might of the South African Defense Force to wipe out the rebel groups, taking black volunteers as well (any black that completed two tours of duty in the SADF being granted automatic citizenship).

As such, all in the six provinces – Cape, Transvaal, Laurentia, Orange Free State, Namib and Natal – prepared for the 1980 election, the first test of Treurnicht’s policies.

-SNIP-
​

In the expanded House of Assembly, Treurnicht and the Nationals had survived their biggest challenge. Vote share and seat share collapsing (especially on percentage of seats held), they nevertheless maintained a solid majority without having to rely on the United Party (which the leadership was loathe to do) or that of the ANC (which Treurnicht hoped he wouldn’t have to do). The United Party under Harry Schwartz gained considerably, mostly due to vicious three-way battles between the Nationals and the Herstigte Nasionale Party and their leaders Jaap Marais and Clive Derby-Lewis – Marais clawed up from zero to twenty-six seats on the anti-Bewaring backlash. For the first time in South African history, black citizens were able to cast their ballots. Mandela and the newly moderate ANC (having renounced much of its far-left positions to be allowed to compete) swept all the seats on the black roll, decided at an at-large basis in the six provinces. Mandela, desiring peace and nonviolence, proclaimed “Our long journey to true liberty is approaching the final trek.” Chris Hani and the militants would denounce Mandela as a traitor, the ANC leader enduring countless assassination attempts over the course of the campaign.

Reform was endorsed, but could easily be derailed if the HNP gained more and forced the Treurnicht to accelerate the pace to gain United or ANC support (he knew that some of the Black Roll would have to be brought into the Government, but he hoped for more breathing space to convince the populace). A delicate balancing act had been achieved as in Rhodesia to the north – only time would see if the newfound peace and political stability would hold or collapse into anarchy and civil war.

Let me point out that the infobox has the "black roll" at 20 seats out of a total of 200. IOTL 1980, blacks made up over 70% of the South African population.

So, in summary, here's the situation you had Nelson Mandela accept upon his release in your TL:

1. Black opposition groups must swear an oath of allegiance to the apartheid government and renounce communism and socialism in order to stand for election.
2. White South Africans will still, by law, control 90% of seats in the House of Assembly despite being a minority of the population.
3. The South African government will invest some more money into helping black and colored communities after grievously underfunding them for decades, but no apparent effort will be made to repeal apartheid laws except for citizenship and voting laws that, as previously mentioned, are neutered to prevent challenging white, minority rule.
4. The South African government will support natalist policies for white South Africans and encourage European immigration while doing all it can to deport unruly black South Africans to Bantustans or exile abroad, while doing population transfers with its neighbors in exchange for more white people.

IMO, it doesn't seem like a stretch for readers to conclude that you wrote Mandela to basically accept working in the apartheid system.

EDIT: Calbear posted while I was finishing this up. Will delete if need be.

 

[Redcoat]

I think I started an argument. While I think NDCR isn't extremely plausible, it's a good TL and well written. It still deserves a Turtledove

 

[Artaxerxes]

And not to mention the other weird shit, like the profoundly uncomfortable implications of Neo-Incan terrorists practising human sacrifice.

Huh, I've only ever seen that in a Dirk Pitt novel.

It was not a good novel.