2018 Presidential Election

Or Democrats could win more seats in 2024, as was the case in OTL in 1998 in the aftermath of the Monica Lewinsky affair during Bill Clinton's second term.
And ITTL the Republicans actually gained in 2016 during Walken's second midterms. They regained Senate control after losing it in 2014.
 
Has there been any indication of how Duke's primary supporters have reacted to the election results? Are they doubling down on their support of Duke in the primaries or are they showing buyer's remorse, saying, ,"He lost in a landslide and cost the Republicans control of both houses of Congress and has set the Republican Party back for years. Maybe voting for Duke in the primaries wasn't such a good idea?"
 
So far, this seems pretty similar to the 2012 presidential election in OTL. The Democratic President goes into the election with a middling economy and disastrous results in the midterms two years ago. The Democratic President stumbles in their first debate against their Republican opponent, but the Democratic VP beats their Republican opponent in their debate, mitigating the damage done to the Democratic ticket from the first presidential debate.
Adding onto this now that the election is over. The Democratic President rebounds by winning the second and third presidential debates. Throughout the election, the Democratic President defends their mediocre economic record and paints their Republican opponent's economic plan as an irresponsible and ill-advised one that would harm the economy, rather than help it to recover. Their Republican opponent makes an off-the-cuff remark that reinforces the worst perceptions of them. The Democratic President handles a hurricane well, which helps them look bipartisan and presidential.
 
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Here are some maps of Congress for the start of the 118th Congress.

There will of course be a full roster coming at some point in January (along with the Senate committee assignments that took literally the better part of a day to do thanks to the byzantine rules about committee assignments), but for now, enjoy the pretty maps.

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Police arrest man who planned to storm Duke's hospital to "reveal the deep state hoax"

Sunday, November 20th, 2022

Officers of the Tulsa Police Department (TPD) arrested a man late Saturday night who police say was planning to storm the hospital where former presidential nominee Alan Duke is recuperating from a stroke to "prove" that Duke's stroke had been faked.

James Munroe Brown (age 29) was detained by officers after by-standers reported a suspicious person loitering near the premises of the St. Francis Hospital. An altercation ensued when Brown attempted to brush past the officers, and he was arrested for resisting arrest. Police recovered a handgun after a search of Brown, and a search of his vehicle parked nearby found an AR15-style rifle and plans of the St. Francis campus. Interrogated by officers, Brown said he had been performing reconnaissance to storm the campus to "show the world that [Duke's stroke and hospitalization] was a hoax" and that the former senator was not actually hospitalized.

Brown was subsequently charged with illegal transportation of a firearm and conspiracy to commit assault. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has taken over the investigation after TPD officers found text messages and instant messages from other individuals coordinating with Brown to "reveal the deep state hoax."

Duke's disappearance from public view last week after he suffered a stroke has led to an increase in activity among conspiracy theorists: various theories have emerged, including that Duke was poisoned, a stroke is the cover story for a failed assassination attempt, or the whole event was faked entirely (as Brown appears to have believed).

"The reason [Duke] has not re-appeared publicly [since his stroke] is that the worst thing you can do to a person who has suffered a stroke is to put them in a stressful situation while they are still recovering," Dr. Ajit Patil, a neurosurgeon at John Hopkins University, told NBS. "I cannot think of a more stressful situation for a person who may have some lingering neurological effects [from a stroke] than to subject them to national media scrutiny."

Duke is still a patient at St. Francis Hospital, a representative confirmed, although he had been moved to an undisclosed location on the campus after Brown's arrest.

-----------------------------​

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Sunday, November 20th 2022

Turkey agrees to NATO supervision of withdrawal from Cyprus

Zurich
A key sticking point in negotiations for the end of hostilities in Cyprus was resolved this weekend, when negotiators from the Republic of Turkey and the Republic of Northern Cyprus accepted a proposed supervision force from NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) to monitor the phased withdrawal of Turkish forces back into Northern Cyprus.

The negotiations, mediated by the government of Switzerland in the city of Zurich, remain ongoing, but the agreement on a NATO supervision force removes a "major impediment to peace." in the words of Secretary of State August Adair, head of the American delegation at the talks.

While all of the operational details have yet to be released, the three NATO member-states involved in the Cyprus dispute (Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom, which oversees two Sovereign Base Areas on the island) will not participate in the observation force to "prevent misunderstandings or conflicts of loyalty" according to NATO Secretary-General Jonas Bakke.

The Turkish occupation of Cyprus has become a major issue within NATO, and led to debate on whether to expel Turkey for what other members ruled was an invalid invocation of Article V of the alliance's charter North Atlantic Treaty (that requires all NATO member-states to assist after one member-state is attacked) or to renegotiate the treaty to allow for other member-states to discipline a rogue member.

President Ahmed Faria of Turkey in a statement to the Turkish Armed Forces said that "work of distributing justice for the unlawful attacks on Turkish peoples on the island of Cyprus is nearing an end" and praised what he called the "uncommon valor and restraint" of Turkish forces.

Human rights organizations have called for an investigation into alleged war crimes committed by Turkish and Northern Cypriot forces as well as Greek Cypriot insurgents who have resisted Turkish occupation of the republic for the past fourteen months.

Several other points of contention remain before a final settlement can be reach, including: subsequent agreements on the limits of Turkish military forces in Northern Cyprus after the withdrawal, if and when sanctions on Turkey should be removed (a major demand of Faria, whose approval ratings have plummeted as national economic growth has stalled and high inflation on the costs of many consumer goods have enraged Turkish consumers), and contributions, if any, should be required of both Turkey and Greece, to rebuild infrastructure on the island damaged or destroyed in the war.
 
Oh yeah, I should post the infoboxes for the elections.

I was waiting on Mark to post the PDFs of the presidential, Senate & governors results before posting these, but since it's now been nearly two weeks since the election, I figure I'm safe on not spoiling anything in particular:

XW0jXkM.png

  • The Electoral College hasn't cast its votes yet, so technically the election isn't actually over. But after how nuts people ITTL feel the election was ("Remember four years ago when one of the biggest stories was Franklin Hollis being kind of a jerk? God, we didn't know how good we had it."), and after what happened with the vice-presidential vote in 2018, nobody's in the mood for faithless elector shenanigans this go-round.
  • Long gets a place in the infobox even though he didn't win a state since he achieved at least five percent of the popular vote. (Susan Buckner got around 2.7%, a good showing by RL third-party standards, but a 50% drop from Haydn Straus' performance four years ago).
  • It's still weird seeing Blue Alaska.

uSXKqGK.png

  • Yeah, no GOP pickups at all this year. Sorry Wesley Riley.
  • The Democrats' 51st seat (turns out Alaskans didn't like Sorah Wheeler publicly thirsting so hard to be Alan Duke's running mate instead of running for re-election) avoids the fun of a 50/50 Senate whose leadership depends on the vice president. If the Democrats had only picked up seven, or if there had been a net of seven gains instead of eight, then the GOP would have been the majority party for the first 17 days of the new Senate (thanks to Hunter still being VP) before handing things over to the Democrats (once Tyler is inaugurated).

EdmRApe.png

  • This is the first House election to be run since the redistricting following the 2020 census. That means that there's several seats that show up as gains either because they are new (Montana got a second House seat & the Democratic at-large rep ran for governor so the GOP is shown picking up both) or redistricted to favor the party who won it here.
  • The Greens are listed because Randy Celeste left the Democratic Party to join them during the current Congress. Celeste didn't run for re-election to the House (he tried to get the Green Party's presidential nomination) & since there wasn't a Green caucus or organization of sorts, he doesn't get named in the infobox like Maddox & Harris.

KZeXhgE.png

  • They changed the format for gubernatorial elections since I've been doing infoboxes for this thread, so the leaders of the DGA & RGA aren't shown any longer.
  • Similar to the Senate, zero gains for the GOP here.
 
2022 Presidential Election Results
RepublicanDemocratGreenIndependent
StateEVTotal VoteDuke & PendletonEVSeaborn & TylerEVBuckner & GeraldEVLong & RuddenEVMargin% Duke% Seaborn% Buckner%
Long
% Margin
Alabama92,323,2821,362,8379826,15930,900103,386-536,67858.66%35.56%1.33%4.45%-23.10%
Alaska3359,530145,206147,299319,19947,8262,09340.39%40.97%5.34%13.30%0.58%
Arizona113,397,0971,437,1941,539,10411110,798310,001101,91042.31%45.31%3.26%9.13%3.00%
Arkansas61,219,069684,3856414,60521,55198,527-269,78056.14%34.01%1.77%8.08%-22.13%
California5418,555,4724,103,19312,451,67954696,7801,303,8198,348,48622.11%67.11%3.76%7.03%44.99%
Colorado103,324,5761,180,2331,761,93510115,646266,762581,70235.50%53.00%3.48%8.02%17.50%
Connecticut71,823,856535,1201,081,000740,136167,600545,88029.34%59.27%2.20%9.19%29.93%
DC3344,3577,752316,63137,78412,190304,4412.25%91.95%2.26%3.54%88.41%
Delaware3504,347147,420296,253312,15548,519148,83329.23%58.74%2.41%9.62%29.51%
Florida3011,067,4564,663,8265,336,72730208,068858,835672,90142.14%48.22%1.88%7.76%6.08%
Georgia164,999,9612,252,4822,290,9821694,500361,99738,50045.05%45.82%1.89%7.24%0.77%
Hawaii4574,469130,175370,820419,53053,945240,64522.66%64.55%3.40%9.39%41.89%
Idaho4868,013465,6034274,29225,644102,474-191,31153.64%31.60%2.95%11.81%-22.04%
Illinois196,033,7441,878,9083,461,55919161,704531,5731,582,65131.14%57.37%2.68%8.81%26.23%
Indiana113,033,1211,373,701111,238,72772,804347,890-134,97445.29%40.84%2.40%11.47%-4.45%
Iowa61,690,871714,224785,240638,552152,85571,01642.24%46.44%2.28%9.04%4.20%
Kansas61,372,304699,2516503,73131,229138,093-195,52050.95%36.71%2.28%10.06%-14.25%
Kentucky82,136,7671,123,9408796,37342,735173,719-327,56752.60%37.27%2.00%8.13%-15.33%
Louisiana82,148,0621,123,2228856,00332,865135,972-267,21952.29%39.85%1.53%6.33%-12.44%
Maine4819,462234,612433,741440,022111,087199,12928.63%52.93%4.88%13.56%24.30%
Maryland103,037,031753,7911,985,0031082,304215,9331,231,21224.82%65.36%2.71%7.11%40.54%
Massachusetts113,631,403703,0402,374,93711131,820421,6061,671,89719.36%65.40%3.63%11.61%46.04%
Michigan155,539,3022,064,4982,795,13215182,797496,875730,63437.27%50.46%3.30%8.97%13.19%
Minnesota103,277,1711,098,8351,711,99410115,029351,313613,15933.53%52.24%3.51%10.72%18.71%
Mississippi61,313,758720,0716507,89918,65567,133-212,17254.81%38.66%1.42%5.11%-16.15%
Missouri103,025,9621,466,381101,213,10859,006287,466-253,27348.46%40.09%1.95%9.50%-8.37%
Montana4603,674254,8714250,10218,68880,013-4,76942.22%41.43%3.10%13.25%-0.79%
Nebraska5958,383474,5495360,65219,223103,959-113,89749.52%37.63%2.01%10.85%-11.88%
Nevada61,405,375551,048701,423625,999126,905150,37539.21%49.91%1.85%9.03%10.70%
New Hampshire4806,205277,496423,661424,42880,621146,16534.42%52.55%3.03%10.00%18.13%
New Jersey144,549,3531,559,9732,580,8481484,163324,3691,020,87534.29%56.73%1.85%7.13%22.44%
New Mexico5923,965355,172473,440519,77375,580118,26838.44%51.24%2.14%8.18%12.80%
New York288,594,8262,408,2705,215,34028259,564711,6522,807,07028.02%60.68%3.02%8.28%32.66%
North Carolina165,524,8042,348,0422,724,8331660,773391,156376,79142.50%49.32%1.10%7.08%6.82%
North Dakota3362,819189,1103114,55213,72645,431-74,55852.12%31.57%3.78%12.52%-20.55%
Ohio175,922,2022,481,4032,730,13517148,055562,609248,73241.90%46.10%2.50%9.50%4.20%
Oklahoma71,560,699832,4487490,33728,549209,365-342,11153.34%31.42%1.83%13.41%-21.92%
Oregon82,374,321717,4191,307,5398107,319242,044590,12030.22%55.07%4.52%10.19%24.85%
Pennsylvania196,915,2832,661,0013,543,39119146,604564,287882,39038.48%51.24%2.12%8.16%12.76%
Rhode Island4517,757128,404317,437421,28050,637189,03324.80%61.31%4.11%9.78%36.51%
South Carolina92,513,3291,230,27591,088,27140,465154,318-142,00448.95%43.30%1.61%6.14%-5.65%
South Dakota3423,609212,1783150,49112,50948,431-61,68750.09%35.53%2.95%11.43%-14.56%
Tennessee113,053,8511,609,074111,152,52370,394221,860-456,55152.69%37.74%2.31%7.26%-14.95%
Texas4011,428,2074,161,6785,005,78140229,6962,031,053844,10336.42%43.80%2.01%17.77%7.39%
Utah61,488,289822,4296483,09936,523146,239-339,33055.26%32.46%2.45%9.83%-22.80%
Vermont3367,42867,092241,474321,38437,478174,38218.26%65.72%5.82%10.20%47.46%
Virginia134,460,5241,632,5522,454,1721353,074320,726821,62036.60%55.02%1.19%7.19%18.42%
Washington124,087,6321,230,7862,356,11112200,608300,1271,125,32530.11%57.64%4.91%7.34%27.53%
West Virginia4794,730452,2284259,2414,98078,281-192,98756.90%32.62%0.63%9.85%-24.28%
Wisconsin103,298,0421,162,8891,658,91510165,839310,399496,02635.26%50.30%5.03%9.41%15.04%
Wyoming3277,765166,146373,4814,04134,097-92,66559.82%26.45%1.45%12.28%-33.36%
538159,633,51559,056,43012381,928,1824154,229,870014,419,0320-22,871,75237.00%51.32%2.65%9.03%-14.33%
 
Was there ever any exit poll on how the Long voters would have broken if Long was not on the ballot? Duke kept saying Long cost him the election. But going by these numbers, if you give Duke every single Long vote, Seaborn wins a squeaker of 276 to 262 Electoral votes. And I don't think every Long vote would have voted for Duke. A lot of Long's supporters were probably "Vinick" Republicans who were repulsed by Duke and his stand on social issues. Absent Long, some probably would have stayed home or undervoted, meaning vote for Senate, House, and Gubernatorial candidates and left the top of the ballot blank, and some may have held their nose and voted for Seaborn.
 
Oh yeah, I should post the infoboxes for the elections.

I was waiting on Mark to post the PDFs of the presidential, Senate & governors results before posting these, but since it's now been nearly two weeks since the election, I figure I'm safe on not spoiling anything in particular:

XW0jXkM.png

  • The Electoral College hasn't cast its votes yet, so technically the election isn't actually over. But after how nuts people ITTL feel the election was ("Remember four years ago when one of the biggest stories was Franklin Hollis being kind of a jerk? God, we didn't know how good we had it."), and after what happened with the vice-presidential vote in 2018, nobody's in the mood for faithless elector shenanigans this go-round.
  • Long gets a place in the infobox even though he didn't win a state since he achieved at least five percent of the popular vote. (Susan Buckner got around 2.7%, a good showing by RL third-party standards, but a 50% drop from Haydn Straus' performance four years ago).
  • It's still weird seeing Blue Alaska.

uSXKqGK.png

  • Yeah, no GOP pickups at all this year. Sorry Wesley Riley.
  • The Democrats' 51st seat (turns out Alaskans didn't like Sorah Wheeler publicly thirsting so hard to be Alan Duke's running mate instead of running for re-election) avoids the fun of a 50/50 Senate whose leadership depends on the vice president. If the Democrats had only picked up seven, or if there had been a net of seven gains instead of eight, then the GOP would have been the majority party for the first 17 days of the new Senate (thanks to Hunter still being VP) before handing things over to the Democrats (once Tyler is inaugurated).

EdmRApe.png

  • This is the first House election to be run since the redistricting following the 2020 census. That means that there's several seats that show up as gains either because they are new (Montana got a second House seat & the Democratic at-large rep ran for governor so the GOP is shown picking up both) or redistricted to favor the party who won it here.
  • The Greens are listed because Randy Celeste left the Democratic Party to join them during the current Congress. Celeste didn't run for re-election to the House (he tried to get the Green Party's presidential nomination) & since there wasn't a Green caucus or organization of sorts, he doesn't get named in the infobox like Maddox & Harris.

KZeXhgE.png

  • They changed the format for gubernatorial elections since I've been doing infoboxes for this thread, so the leaders of the DGA & RGA aren't shown any longer.
  • Similar to the Senate, zero gains for the GOP here.
Presidency, Senate, House and even Governorships?

Even though I'm not sure a majority of governorship is going to change much, it's still an amazing triumph.
 
It won't come out for a few months in-universe, but TTL's CCES for the 2022 election will provide the closest thing to an in-universe estimation of what would have happened had Andrew Long (or Susan Buckner) not been in the race. Based in part on results from the OTL CCES following the 2016 election.

Before anyone asks, neither of the alternatives were considered by the writing staff. This is just me using the figures we came up and RL approximations with to make AHs within an AH:

Actual 2022
genusmap.php


Seaborn/Tyler (D): 415 EV, 51.32% PV
Duke/Pendleton (R): 123 EV, 37.00% PV
Long/Rudden (I): 0 EV, 9.03% PV
Buckner/Gerald (G): 0 EV, 2.65%

The actual result. Duke & the GOP got washed pretty bad & the Democrats won a bunch of states on pluralities because of the split GOP vote.

No Long
genusmap.php


Seaborn/Tyler (D): 322 EV, 53.04% PV
Duke/Pendleton (R): 216 EV, 44.22% PV
Buckner/Gerald (G): 0 EV, 2.74%

Nationally, Long voters' second choices break down as follows: 80% Duke, 19% Seaborn, 1% Buckner. That number changes slightly in each state, but the end result is the same: Duke really benefits from having Long not in the race.

However, Seaborn still wins--270 of his electoral votes "IOTL" came from states he'd won a majority of the vote in, so *here* it just preserves some of Duke's dignity by keeping some swing states in the GOP column. Either way, it's still the biggest victory since Bartlet's "lonely landslide" 20 years ago even if Seaborn "only" wins by a popular vote margin of nearly 10%.

Two-Party Politics
genusmap.php


Seaborn/Tyler (D): 368 EV, 55.22% PV
Duke/Pendleton (R): 170 EV, 44.78% PV
The above but now Buckner is removed as well, basically the "normal" state of affairs for TTL, having zero third-party votes at the presidential level. The 1% of Long voters that picked Buckner as their second-choice instead goes to Seaborn. Between the two major-party candidates, unsurprisingly Buckner voters would have gone overwhelmingly (79%) for Seaborn.

In this scenario, Seaborn still wins Texas & Iowa by the skin of his teeth (something like 2,500 votes in Texas & 1,600 votes in Iowa). His performance in the Electoral College as a result is basically the same as Obama's in 2008, but with an even larger popular vote margin.
 
Sam won the election by close to 23 million more voters than Duke. Long as a spoiler for sure, but Duke was as a candidate, just awful.
 
2022 Gubernatorial Results
NoStateIncumbentPartyRunningRepublican PV TotalPV %DemocratPV TotalPV %Third Party PV TotalPV %P V %P V MarginT V CastResult
1AlabamaEdward WestRYesGovernor Edward West1,372,85659.69%Calhoun County Commissioner Ryan Stacey927,19340.31%0.00%19.38%445,6632,300,049Dem Hold
2ArizonaScott PhillipsRNo (Term-Limited)Congressman Troy Foster1,645,11048.92%Secretary of State Kate Fernandez1,718,01651.08%0.00%2.17%72,9063,363,126Dem Gain
3CaliforniaAbbie HeilemannDNo (Term-Limited)State Rep Billy Walsh7,210,84639.25%Secretary of Labor Gael Cordova11,159,07260.75%0.00%21.49%3,948,22618,369,918Dem Hold
4ColoradoLance McKeyDYesState Senator Tom Ronchetti1,376,80141.83%Governor Lance McKey1,914,52958.17%0.00%16.34%537,7283,291,330Dem Hold
5ConnecticutCal BeaushawDYes (No term limits)State Rep Lee Stewart810,19944.87%Governor Cal Beaushaw995,41855.13%0.00%10.26%185,2191,805,617Dem Hold
6GeorgiaJeremy JeffersonRYesGovernor Jeremy Jefferson2,475,49850.01%State Senator Kelsey Gardner2,427,15749.03%Alex Cruiz (Libertarian)47,3060.96%0.98%48,3414,949,961Rep Hold
7HawaiiShane BurnsDYesBusinessman Ray Allio185,70632.65%Governor Shane Burns341,80960.10%Noenoe Helms (Hawaii Indepedence)41,2097.25%27.45%156,103568,724Dem Hold
8IndianaMatthew StillmanRYesGovernor Matthew Stillman1,575,10952.45%State Rep Jonathan Dawes1,324,90144.12%Henry Williams (Libertarian)102,7793.42%8.33%250,2083,002,789Rep Hold
9IowaJames EdwardsDYesCongressman Kevin Nix767,76245.86%Governor James Edwards906,20054.14%0.00%8.27%138,4381,673,962Dem Hold
10LouisianaKevin HaynesRYesGovernor Kevin Haynes1,186,50955.79%Mayor of Colfax Simon Law940,07244.21%0.00%11.59%246,4372,126,581Rep Hold
11MassachusettsSam RustDYes (No term limits)State Senator Lewis Taylor965,10326.85%Governor Sam Rust2,629,98673.15%0.00%46.31%1,664,8833,595,089Dem Hold
12MichiganBen LaurionRNo (Term-Limited)Businessman Ted Podres2,569,31046.85%State AG Dianne Maguire2,914,59953.15%0.00%6.30%345,2895,483,909Dem Gain
13MontanaMonty FisherRYesGovernor Monty Fisher300,74150.32%Congressman Alan Price275,20346.05%Casey Page (Libertarian)21,6933.63%4.27%25,538597,637Rep Hold
14NevadaDalton CreelDYesFormer Congressman Joey Cano636,20645.73%Governor Dalton Creel755,11654.27%0.00%8.55%118,9101,391,322Dem Hold
15New HampshireElizabeth BartletDYes (No term limits)Businessman Walt Lacroix346,98243.47%Governor Elizabeith Bartlet421,71852.84%Ben Lambert (Libertarian)29,4423.69%9.36%74,736798,142Dem Hold
16New MexicoWill DiegoDYesState Rep Rick Tinnin373,36342.68%Governor Will Diego501,36257.32%0.00%14.63%127,999874,725Dem Hold
17New YorkHakeem El-AminDYesCongressman Del Roberts3,401,32139.97%Governor Hakeem El-Amin5,107,55660.03%0.00%20.05%1,706,2358,508,877Dem Hold
18North CarolinaDavid McNamaraRNo (Term-Limited)Lt Governor Gabriel Huxley2,541,66346.47%State Senator Erica Johnson2,854,88752.20%Greta Bergman (Green)73,0061.33%5.73%313,2245,469,556Dem Gain
19OhioArt ScheiderRYesGovernor Art Scheider2,810,68647.94%Congresswomen Josie Bail3,052,29452.06%0.00%4.12%241,6085,862,980Dem Gain
20South DakotaRichard DeanRYesGovernor Richard Dean263,32162.94%State Senator William Reynolds155,06237.06%0.00%25.88%108,259418,383Rep Hold
21TennesseeTerrance KleinDYesCongressman Walter Peterson1,471,96248.69%Governor Terrance Klein1,551,35051.31%0.00%2.63%79,3883,023,312Dem Hold
22WisconsinMark CroftRYesGovernor Mark Croft1,553,70947.59%Dane County executive Chris Bock1,711,35252.41%0.00%4.83%157,6433,265,061Dem Gain
35,840,76344.39%44,584,85255.22%315,4350.39%10.83%8,744,08980,741,050
2018-4.88%5.02%-0.13%
 
2022 Senate Results
NoStateIncumbentPartyRunningRepublican PV TotalPV %DemocratPV TotalPV %Third Party PV TotalPV %P V %P V MarginT V CastResult
1AlabamaAlan GarlandRepNoCongressman Jim Doldier1,385,11260.40%State Senator Miles Brogg908,03739.60%20.80%477,0752,293,149Rep Hold
2AlaskaSorah WheelerRepYesSenator Sorah Wheeler167,59347.23%Mayor of Anchorage Bill Forrestal168,48047.48%Jim Haskins (Alaskan Independence)18,7835.29%0.25%887354,856Dem Gain
3ArizonaAntonio RodriguesDemYesGovernor Scott Phillips1,655,71549.38%Senator Antonio Rodrigues1,697,22050.62%1.24%41,5053,352,935Dem Hold
4ArkansasFletcher CareyRepYesSenator Fletcher Carey753,20159.63%Commissioner of State Lands Ryan Freeman480,02038.00%Terrance Palmer (Southern Rights)30,0002.37%21.63%273,1811,263,221Rep Hold
5CaliforniaGabe TilmanDemNoState Rep Simon Connor7,002,54538.24%Governor Abbie Heilenann11,311,70661.76%23.53%4,309,16118,314,251Dem Hold
6ColoradoCarlos CabreraRepYesSenator Carlos Cabrera1,530,22246.63%Former Senator Camille Aubry1,675,95151.07%Marshall Lucas (Libertarian)75,1842.29%4.44%145,7293,281,357Dem Gain
7ConnecticutChris CaseyDemYesState Rep Bobby Lawton703,92239.10%Senator Chris Casey1,096,22460.90%21.79%392,3021,800,146Dem Hold
8HawaiiDavid KuhioDemYesState Party Chair Lucy Koper184,62632.56%Senator David Kuhio342,16760.35%Jack Donaldson (Hawaii Independence)40,2077.09%27.79%157,541567,000Dem Hold
9IdahoClark GibsonRepNoGovernor David Arkin530,46361.92%State Rep Carol Johns225,05626.27%Ray Sturgess (Indepedent Republican)101,20911.81%35.65%305,407856,728Rep Hold
10IllinoisJasper IvringRepNoState Senator David Beresford2,298,83438.60%Congresswomen Joyce Pearce3,435,77857.69%Lucy Purman (Libertarian)220,6923.71%19.09%1,136,9445,955,304Dem Gain
11IndianiaGibson CarlukeRepYesSenator Gibson Carluke1,598,66453.40%State Rep Mel Mitchell1,276,58442.64%Simon Charlton (Libertarian)118,4423.96%10.76%322,0802,993,690Rep Hold
12IowaBryce BradleyRepYesSenator Bryce Bradley759,36344.96%State Senator & businesswomen Christine Ledford875,30651.83%Angela Whiston (Libertarian)54,2213.21%6.87%115,9431,688,890Dem Gain
13KansasSam WilkinsonRepNoCongressman Kurt Judd787,45158.14%State Rep Colin Gibbs567,01341.86%16.27%220,4381,354,464Rep Hold
14KentuckyTerrance H. SchraederRepYesSenator Terrance H. Schraeder1,005,76247.69%Former Governor Chris Mannix1,038,01849.22%Brad Buckley (Libertarian)65,2103.09%1.53%32,2562,108,990Dem Gain
15LouisianaDavid MorrisonRepYesSenator David Morrision1,250,74258.99%Mayor of Kenner Marius Amoros869,39541.01%17.99%381,3472,120,137Rep Hold
16MarylandJoe DerrickDemYesCounty executive of Charles County Steve Wallace1,043,58734.81%Senator Joe Derrick1,820,11160.72%Sarah Neal (Green)133,8524.47%25.91%776,5242,997,550Dem Hold
17MichiganRandall ThomasRepNoState Senator Avery Preston2,485,44045.46%Congressman Michael Rice2,981,85154.54%9.08%496,4115,467,291Dem Gain
18MissouriLaura ShallickRepYesSenator Laura Shallick1,743,36258.37%State Senator David Edamas1,140,41838.18%Craig Miller (Libertarian)102,8453.44%20.19%602,9442,986,625Rep Hold
19NevdaMatthew SpencerDemYesCongressman Matt Acklan653,55447.12%Senator Matthew Spencer733,55252.88%5.77%79,9981,387,106Dem Hold
20New HampshireEllie WilkinsRepYesSenator Elllie Wilkins399,40950.19%State AG Marshall Lander366,20146.02%Barry Knight (Libertarian)30,1143.78%4.17%33,208795,724Rep Hold
21New YorkTim BurrellDemYesState Rep Gary Francis3,184,55237.54%Senator Tim Burrell5,298,54162.46%24.92%2,113,9898,483,093Dem Hold
22North CarolinaBarbara LaytonRepYesSenator Barbara Layton2,634,72148.32%State AG Hank King2,697,41449.47%Stephen Sugrue (Southern Rights)120,8472.22%1.15%62,6935,452,982Dem Gain
23North DakotaMatt ChantlerRepYesSenator Matt Chantler221,74162.09%State Rep Charles Marshall133,48337.38%Write-Ins1,8910.53%24.71%221,741357,115Rep Hold
24OhioRuth Norton-StewartRepYesSenator Ruth Norton-Stewart2,864,14549.00%Congressman Roger Matthews2,830,85848.43%Peter Tallard (Green)150,2102.57%0.57%33,2875,845,213Rep Hold
25OklahomaRobert RoanokeRepNoFormer Governor Lawrence Martin881,51257.15%State Senator Chris Hedges600,88938.96%Alison Reid (Libertarian)60,0093.89%18.19%280,6231,542,410Rep Hold
26OregonRobert GreysDemYesState Rep Dan Baxter766,93532.73%Senator Robert Greys1,477,52563.05%Toyah Reeves (Socialist)98,9954.22%30.32%710,5902,343,455Dem Hold
27PennsylvaniaMatt ClausenDemYesCongressman Kyle Jackson3,047,12244.64%Senator Matt Clausen3,678,04453.89%Tim Gale (Progressive)100,2181.47%9.24%630,9226,825,384Dem Hold
28South CarolinaBrad MaxwellRepYesSenator Brad Maxwell1,350,18154.43%State Senator Andrew Timpson1,130,47545.57%8.86%219,7062,480,656Rep Hold
29South DakotaRobin FultonRepNoCongressman Tony Sutton276,11966.20%Former Mayor of Spearfish Warren Kemp140,99733.80%32.39%135,122417,116Rep Hold
30UtahMarc EldertonRepYesSenator Marc Edlerton870,21259.24%State Senator Ann Burton506,52834.48%Clifford Browden (Libertarian)92,2016.28%24.76%363,6841,468,941Rep Hold
31VermontMarietta NerlingerDemYesState Party Chair Simon Ross86,20123.77%Senator Marietta Nerlinger245,14667.60%Russell Bruce (Progressive)31,3058.63%43.83%158,945362,652Dem Hold
32WashingtonAndrew HowardDemYesState Senator Pete Christie1,436,07335.59%Senator Andrew Howard2,476,41561.38%William Kinsey (Green)122,0053.02%25.79%1,040,3424,034,493Dem Hold
33WisconsinJames ClarkeRepYesSenator James Clarke1,546,25047.50%Congressman Drake Headley1,708,91852.50%5.00%162,6683,255,168Dem Gain
47,105,33144.94%55,934,32153.37%1,768,4401.69%8.42%8,828,990104,808,092
2016-2.65%1.01%1.64%
 
My biggest hope is after the Duke debacle, the Republican party will now be able to tell Wesley Burke to go pound salt. Since the start of this storyline back in 2008, Burke would rant and rave about the Republican candidate not being conservative enough. He blackmails the Republican party by threatening to run as a third party candidate if he or the ACA do not approve of the Republican nominee. Well, now he got what he wanted. Duke got the nomination, was trounced, and dragged down both houses of Congress with him. This has set the Republican Party back for years. I'm sure Burke has lost a lot of credibility and support.
 
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*This is not written in-universe* but I hope gives you all some idea how we got to the result we did*
A few thoughts on the 2022 Presidential Election (or how we got to the end result)
By Marky Bunny


In my mind I (and the rest of the writing team) Sam Seaborn was always going to get a second term. After writing three close elections in 2010,2014 and 2018, it was clear in all our minds that this one had to be the end result of a landslide. During the 2020 lockdown I did some initial thoughts (which I still have). Originally, I had Long as the candidate who wins the nomination, with a "Christian right" candidate such as Wesley Burke as the nominee of a third party. But then reading through the 2012 Republican primaries (and watching all the Die-Hard movies during lockdown!!) and inspired by Rick Santorum coming very close to winning the presidential nomination, six years after losing his Senate seat, I thought it would be great to bring Alan Duke back, as a combination of both Santorum and Trump.

We all thought that we had to reflect the real world in the story, as the show did with Ritchie standing in for George W. Bush, and Arnold Vinick for John McCain, but we didn't just want it to be a straightforward copy. (Duke had Rick Santorum's/Mike Pence's moral views, and was a former Senator, we just gave him Trump's outspoken nature, a rather chaotic campaign stuff and surrounded by conspiracy nuts).

Once Duke was in it was clear in our minds, he would be the nominee. As for the results for both the primaries, I did the first past, lc and MD then looked at them, suggested some minor changes, the same went for the Presidential results, which both myself and lc, did our own pass at, and did basically come out with the same result. I think we had we had two states different, if I remember correctly. I then combined both result spreadsheets, to get the final result (the only major change came when we agreed Bobby Tyler would be the Democratic nominee, pushing up the Democratic win in Virginia, and slightly pushing up the Dem vote in the South). These original results were agreed in November 2021 (yes, we had this done way ahead).

As for the running mates, Lloyd Pendleton came about after I watched on DVD (again during lockdown in 2020) of the 1994 TV movie (The Enemy Within) which involved a Chairman of the Joint Chiefs called Pendleton Lloyd (played by Jason Robards) planning a military coup. It gave me the idea of a maverick General which would suite the story of Duke winning the nomination. (Duke had no military experience and we could have a maverick general basically becoming a gaffe machine!!). it was also inspired by the utter mess of John McCain's picking Sarah Palin in 2008. We never considered anyone else for the job to be honest. Everything else in the story was just that, story.

On the Democratic side, I wanted no repeat of 2018, I wanted a very professional decision both "in-story" and from the writer's point of view as well. We drew up a long list of 25 names, which we then narrowed down to ten. (We actually voted on the names to do this). Last Christmas/New Year we had two Zoom meetings and narrowed that list down to a final five, then in February/March we narrowed that down to a final three shortlist (which was Bobby Tyler, Jarod Daniels and Ben Newell). I then put together a PDF briefing document, with profiles of all three candidates, and in the end, we decided between the three of us, it was Tyler, (although I have to say my original thought was Ben Newell back in 2020). We all voted for Bobby Tyler.

As for Andrew Long, I think I suggested Emily Rudden and we all quickly agreed, the same for Anderson Gerald for the Green's.

For the story line to be realistic, you had to believe that Duke did have a chance, even despite him as a character. I have kept my personal life out of the story, but it was very difficult for me as an openly gay man to write some of the anti-LGBT comments made by Alan Duke during the campaign, but it proved that I could do it as a writer, and it did actually help me get into the mind of people who actually hate my own sexuality, was it difficult yes, but I thought I could do it and understand why Duke believed it.

I hope you all enjoyed the 2022 storyline, and it proved we don't always have to have a squeaker election to have a good storyline. Also, I hope that you all enjoyed the new graphics we used on election night, my thanks to lc, for the hard work in creating all those.

To answer all the questions, yes, we will be carrying on, and no at the moment I have no clue how 2026 could develop.

Right, "What's next".

Kind regards

Mark
 

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Last edited:
*This is not written in-universe* but I hope gives you all some idea how we got to the result we did*
A few thoughts on the 2022 Presidential Election (or how we got to the end result)
By Marky Bunny


In my mind I (and the rest of the writing team) Sam Seaborn was always going to get a second term. After writing three close elections in 2010,2014 and 2018, it was clear in all our minds that this one had to be the end result of a landslide. During the 2020 lockdown I did some initial thoughts (which I still have). Originally, I had Long as the candidate who wins the nomination, with a "Christian right" candidate such as Wesley Burke as the nominee of a third party. But then reading through the 2012 Republican primaries (and watching all the Die-Hard movies during lockdown!!) and inspired by Rick Santorum coming very close to winning the presidential nomination, six years after losing his Senate seat, I thought it would be great to bring Alan Duke back, as a combination of both Santorum and Trump.

We all thought that we had to reflect the real world in the story, as the show did with Ritchie standing in for George W. Bush, and Arnold Vinick for John McCain, but we didn't just want it to be a straightforward copy. (Duke had Rick Santorum's/Mike Pence's moral views, and was a former Senator, we just gave him Trump's outspoken nature, a rather chaotic campaign stuff and surrounded by conspiracy nuts).

Once Duke was in it was clear in our minds, he would be the nominee. As for the results for both the primaries, I did the first past, lc and MD then looked at them, suggested some minor changes, the same went for the Presidential results, which both myself and lc, did our own pass at, and did basically come out with the same result. I think we had we had two states different, if I remember correctly. I then combined both result spreadsheets, to get the final result (the only major change came when we agreed Bobby Tyler would be the Democratic nominee, pushing up the Democratic win in Virginia, and slightly pushing up the Dem vote in the South). These original results were agreed in November 2021 (yes, we had this done way ahead).

As for the running mates, Lloyd Pendleton came about after I watched on DVD (again during lockdown in 2020) of the 1994 TV movie (The Enemy Within) which involved a Chairman of the Joint Chiefs called Pendleton Lloyd (played by Jason Robards) planning a military coup. It gave me the idea of a maverick General which would suite the story of Duke winning the nomination. (Duke had no military experience and we could have a maverick general making basically becoming a gaffe machine!!). it was also insipired by the utter mess of John McCain's picking Sarah Palin in 2008. We never considered anyone else for the job to be honest. Everything else in the story was just that, story.

On the Democratic side, I wanted no repeat of 2018, I wanted a very professional decision both "in-story" and from the writer's point of view as well. We drew up a long list of 25 names, which we then narrowed down to ten. (We actually voted on the names to do this). Last Christmas/New Year we had two Zoom meetings and narrowed that list down to a final five, then in February/March we narrowed that down to a final three shortlist (which was Bobby Tyler, Jarod Daniels and Ben Newell). I then put together a PDF briefing document, with profiles of all three candidates, and in the end, we decided between the three of us, it was Tyler, (although I have to say my original thought was Ben Newell back in 2020). We all voted for Bobby Tyler.

As for Andrew Long, I think I suggested Emily Rudden and we all quickly agreed, the same for Anderson Gerald for the Green's.

For the story line to be realistic, you had to believe that Duke did have a chance, even despite him as a character. I have kept my personal life out of the story, but it was very difficult for me as an openly gay man to write some of the anti-LGBT comments made by Alan Duke during the campaign, but it proved that I could do it as a writer, and it did actually help me get into the mind of people who actually hate my own sexuality, was it difficult yes, but I thought I could do it and understand why Duke believed it.

I hope you all enjoyed the 2022 storyline, and it proved we don't always have to have a squeaker election to have a good storyline. Also, I hope that you all enjoyed the new graphics we used on election night, my thanks to lc, for the hard work in creating all those.

To answer all the questions, yes, we will be carrying on, and no at the moment I have no clue how 2026 could develop.

Right, "What's next".

Kind regards

Mark
The Jed Bartlet remark, "What's next?" Is a nice touch! But a question any prospects of a county map of the 2022 presidential election? I'd say it would be easy! But if you haven't, I'd be more than happy to assist, I use mapchart.net! Anyway well done on the show! I imagine that Bobby Tyler will be a strong favorite to win the Democratic party's presidential nomination in 2026, Vice Presidency would be a perfect launchpad. I'm thinking that Laura Shallick could emerge as her party's front runner!
 
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