politico.com
Wednesday March 7, 2018
Possible Shortlists for Seaborn's VP pick
Senator Sam Seaborn of California has just clinched the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. Although he doesn't have to pick for a few months, speculation about who he'll pick to balance out the ticket is going to dominate the party until the convention. Here is a potential shortlist, in no particular order, with some picks that make sense and some wild picks out of left field.
1. Senator Rudi Robinson (IN)
Why: Senator Robinson proved to be a force to be reckoned with this primary, holding his own agains party heavyweights in Senators Thorn (NY) and Seaborn. In addition to a few surprise wins, he was able to win his home state in the primaries. Robinson is fairly young, and gives the Democrats a strong chance at winning the Rust Belt. In addition, the presence of an African-American on the ticket would likely boost turnout among African American voters, especially in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Why not: Senator Robinson is facing a strong challenger in November for his Senate seat, and Indiana is a state that trends Republican. If a Republican is elected to the governor's mansion and Senator Robinson is elected Vice President, a Republican would fill the seat until a special election, one that the GOP would be more likely to win. In any case, it would fall to the gubernatorial election, which puts the Democrats in a very difficult position should Robinson be on the ticket.
2: Senator Andrew Thorn (NY)
Why: Senator Thorn is a force within the party, is young, and has the ability to put the Southeast in play. He proved his skill in campaigning by providing Seaborn a stronger challenge than expected, and seemed willing to make nice in his concession speech. Thorn is also willing to help down-ballot candidates, improving the Democrats' chances of claiming a mandate.
Why not: The entire 2018 primary. The two heavyweights traded heavy blows with each other, giving their GOP opponent free material. Thorn seriously damaged his standing with women after releasing an ad that implied that Assistant US Attorney Laurie Edelstein slept her way to her role, citing her past as an escort. Thorn's home state, New York, is reliably Democratic, meaning his presence on a ticket wouldn't do much in terms of regional implications. In addition, moderates might not be too pleased to see two coastal Democrats on the same ticket, and Thorn seems better positioned to use his new national influence as a Senator.
3: Representative Will Bailey (OR)
Why: Rep. Bailey has experience working in the White House, where he served as President Bartlet's Deputy Communications Director before becoming then-Vice President Russell's Chief of Staff, ultimately managing his unsuccessful 2006 presidential bid. Bailey is a brilliant campaigner, as evidenced by his ability to posthumously elect Horton Wilde to California's 47th District in 2006, a seat that has been reliably Republican. Due to his upbringing in a military family, as well as his time as an Air Force Reservist, Rep. Bailey could attract military families, as well as more hawkish independents worried about Seaborn's lack of a military background.
Why not: Rep. Bailey, like Senator Seaborn, is a West Coast Democrat, and independents might not want two coastal Democrats on the same ticket. He has also seems to be content with his role in Congress, and is another relic of the Bartlet Democrats, which might disappoint more progressive Democrats who want to see a changing of the guard in the party's leadership. As popular as President Bartlet was, voters aren't that interested in a potential Bartlet sequel, which his presence on the ticket would indicate.
4: August Adair (OH)
Why: Adair would provide experience and political savvy to a young Seaborn ticket. Although he'll be 70 by Inauguration Day, he is in good health and good spirits, and shows no sign of slowing down, as evidenced by his work with America Together.
Why not: He was the VP pick in 2014, and although he helped deliver Ohio for the Democrats, his presence on the ticket didn't help in the crucial Rust Belt state of Pennsylvania, and Al Kiefer put it best: Democrats prefer the shiny new toy over the old rocking horse. He'd also be be 73 during a potential re-election campaign, so he's a definite long-shot.
5: National Security Advisor Kate Harper-Bailey
Why: Harper-Bailey would provide significant foreign policy credentials to a Seaborn ticket, and has done extraordinarily well serving two administrations. She is known to be persuasive, a trait that comes in handy for political candidates, and is moderate enough to attract independents.
Why not: I'll admit, she's a longer long-shot than anyone on this list. She's not committed to any partisan ideology, meaning some Democrats may not be able to support her, and she's probably too hawkish for most Democrats. Also, it's unlikely that she'll want to stay for another administration, and her relationship with Senator Seaborn isn't well documented, although he and her husband are friends.
6:Nancy McNally
Why: McNally was brilliant as National Security Advisor, overseeing operations in Haiti, Qumar, Equitorial Kundu, Iran, and Georgia. She was an excellent NSA director as well, proving to be adept at protecting American security interests. In addition, she has skills in diplomacy, serving as the United States Ambassador to the UN under President Santos, and working with Secretary of State Arnold Vinick to secure peace in Kazakhstan. As an African American woman, her presence on the ticket would drive up turnout in several key states, and her foreign policy experience would placate voters worried about Senator Seaborn.
Why not: Like Harper-Bailey, McNally isn't married to the Democratic Party. In addition, she has shown no desire to return to politics, and even then, would likely be better placed as Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense in a potential Seaborn administration.