2010 US Presidential Election

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nbs.com, Friday March 8th

Heilemann: Seaborn Must Look Beyond the Usual Names for VP Pick


California Governor publicly congratulated Senator Sam Seaborn this afternoon on securing their party’s nomination for President and quickly poured scorn on suggestions that she would be interested in forming and all California ticket with Seaborn.

Heileman was an early supporter of Seaborn and said she “remained utterly convinced that he will make a great President.” When pushed to speculate on VP names, the Governor said it was “too early and totally unhelpful” to speculate but added that she felt that the search should look “much wider than the normal parade of names you will see trotted out over the next few weeks. Washington needs fresh ideas and something more than the standard Washington lifers that have been offered up recently.”

The comments are seen as a shot at likely Republican nominee Henry Shallick but are said to also be grounded in the Governor’s belief that Seaborn should select a woman and probably a less well known figure. Two names that were circulating amongst Heinemann’s people were businesswoman Shannon Frost and Arizona Congresswoman Emma Avila.
 
Question about Sam needing to 'break away' from the Bartlet legacy - is Bartlet's term now considered in a poorer light by Democrats in general? Or is it just a vocal Sanders-esque wing of the party doing the same kind of thing that they did IRL with Clinton's two terms? I presume the latter but curious given the show effectively makes Bartlet the most successful Democratic President since JFK and/or FDR.
 
It's actually the opposite. Thorn represents a new generation of the Conservative and Moderate Democrats that once hailed John Hoynes as their champion. With Bartlett being the liberal icon that he was, the Clintonesque "Third Way" never materialized, thus when it was time for an interval revolt, it was the moderates doing the revolting against the Liberal Establishment
 
ooc: Though don't forget about the "Youth in Revolt" from 2010-2012, which sought to counterbalance Santos' triangulation with a more firebrand liberalism

ic:

washingtonpost.com/politics, Friday, March 9th, 2018

The Education Finance Reform Act (EFRA) passes both House, Senate, will be signed by Walken on Monday

After a few weeks of procedural negotiations between the House and Senate, the conference committee bill sailed through both houses of congress. President Walken and his staff, along with liberal icon Nicole Kershaw (D-CA) leaned hard on their wavering members, leading to even wider margins of bipartisan support than when the bill passed originally three weeks ago. Even recently Andrew Thorn (D-NY), fresh off his defeat in the presidential primary and early critic of the bill, voted 'yes' in the end. All agreed upon reforms from restructuring how public education is financed to opening up federal financial aid to trade schools were included. Neither side caved into election year posturing, and followed through on making the most meaningful reforms to the education system since President Bartlet's first term.

President Walken was unavailable for comment, as he was in Missouri for the funeral of a family friend, but the White House confirmed that the President was ecstatic about the news. The source also added that the President had invited former President Santos to join him for the signing ceremony. Despite Walken defeating Santos in 2010, the two have remained friendly and any tensions from eight years ago are long since passed. Plus, they both largely agreed on the issue of education, so it would be symbolic given the bipartisan nature of the legislation. No word on if Santos has accepted, though he is widely assumed to attend.

Newly anointed democratic presidential nominee Sam Seaborn (D-CA) said about the bill, "it's a great day in America when our two major parties can put aside presidential politics to get something done for the American people. This bill doesn't solve every problem with our education system and I will seek to make further improvements should I win in November, but it makes the most consequential reforms since I was an aide in the Bartlet administration. I applaud President Walken and my good friend Nicole Kershaw for working hard over the years and never giving up on the promise of doing something meaningful for every child in America."
 
Following the success of his article on Wednesday, John Edwards has agreed to write for us during the rest of the Presidential campaign.
Politico.com
Saturday March 10th 2018


"Identity Politics: The Pitfall of the Democratic Mind"

By John Edwards

In 2006, Matt Santos was elected President of the United States in one of the closest margins in political history, a race in which he was still unable to win the popular vote. A race that looked to be a landslide for Arnold Vinick only a month out from the election (it likely would have stayed that way had if not for the event at the San Andreo Nuclear Power Station), Campaign Manager Josh Lyman turned to a new strategy. Determined to drive out Hispanic voter turnout in the Southwest and Florida, Lyman began pivoting the campaign towards the historic nature of then-Congressman Santo's candidacy as the first minority to be a major party's nominee for President. The plan worked, as Hispanic turnout would propel the Santos campaign to victories in Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. However, what was once seen as a last resort tactic has now become the de-jure strategy for the Democratic Party. Over the past 12 years, the Democratic Party's support among middle class voters has dropped to an all time low, particularly in key states like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio & Pennsylvania. For 12 years, Democratic politicians have focused on the "identity" of the voter, rather than the voters themselves. Democrats have seen winnable races slip through their fingers because they took for granted that minority voters would support them no matter what as long as they painted their opponents as "Anti-Poor"; "Anti-Women"; "Anti-Gay"; "Anti-Immigrant", rather than speaking to the very issues that actually affect these peoples daily lives.

When California Congressman Will Durham visited San Francisco's Castro District before Super Tuesday this year, the move became the punch line of the week for comedians and social media alike. It would later come as a massive shock (except to the people who live there) when Durham carried San Francisco in California's primary. And these results are not an outlier. Polling data for the current election shows that minority support for GOP Candidates is at it's highest point since the 1950s. In 2015, Evan Butler took 35% of the Black vote in South Carolina by talking about issues like poverty and criminal justice reform, while his opponent took their votes for granted. Even as early as the 1990s, Josh Lyman famously lambasted then-Congressman Matthew Skinner as a "self-loathing hypocrite" because he was an openly gay republican.

For the Democratic Party's newest nominee, the dangers of being trapped by identity politics are more prevalent that ever. His victory being seen as a forgone conclusion only a few months ago, Senator Seaborn suddenly found himself on the defensive as he struggled to hold off the powerful challenge of Senator Andrew Thorn, whose economic message brought him victory after victory in the south, largely thanks to African American voters who felt like for the first time that a Democrat actually cared about the things that affect their lives. Facing several "do-or-die" primaries on "Mini-Tuesday" and unable to counter Thorn's economic message, the Seaborn Campaign once again reached into the Lyman bag of dirty tricks, deciding that if they couldn't win the issue that was being discussed, they would create there own issue. They decided that since Senator Thorn's campaign had asked the legitimate question about how an admitted felon named Laurie Edelstein (with whom Senator Seaborn was once romantically linked) got her job as an assistant US Attorney, they decided that that was sexist.

In the end, the whole debacle amounted to nothing. Much like they did in nearly every other contest, Seaborn and Thorn split the women vote. However, instead of learning from this bought of idiocy, the Seaborn Campaign doubled down, making sure to credit their victories to this new "brilliant" strategy. However, as we have seen time and time again, the strategy of identity politics will fail. Seaborn's newest tactic was decried by many within in the party as harmful to party unity. Liberal Pundit Bill Maher stated that while he voted for Seaborn in the Primary and still intended to vote for him in November, called out Seaborn on it, claiming "If you were stupid enough to sleep with a hooker, you shouldn't be shocked when someone asked if you paid".

The biggest problem for Sam Seaborn's campaign, is that he won. He won with a message of identity politics, and as we've seen, it can only take you so far. The 2018 election is perhaps the most winnable election for the Democrats in decades. Their nominee, oozes charisma and combines J. Crew model looks with a GQ sense of fashion. However, none of it will matter if they don't talk about the issues that voters care about. It's time for the Democratic Party to start caring about the voters themselves, and not their creed, color, sexual orientation, or sex.

John Edwards is a former Media Advisor to former Texas Governor John Hoynes from 2012 to 2017.
 
DailyMail.com
Monday March 12th 2015


Survation Poll:

Westminster Voting Intention:

Conservative: 40% (-2)
Labour: 33% (+9.36)
National Peoples: 11% (+5.99)
Liberal Democrat: 10% (-2.17)
Green: 2.5% (-0.58)
Socialist Alliance: 1.5% (-2.22)
Scotland Only:
Labour 34% (+0.16)
SNP 28% (+4.29)
Conservative: 22% (+3.71)
Liberal Democrat: 8.5% (-7.93)
Socialist Alliance: 4.5% (+0.39)
Green: 2% (-0.98)
Overall Prediction: Conservative Majority 32
Uniform National Swing: From Conservative to Labour: 5.68%
*+/- figures are based on the 2013 General Election
Fieldwork done: March 1st to March 9th
 
UKpolitics.com
Monday March 12th 2018


London Mayoral Polling
Com Res
*First-preference
Jay (Con) 41%
Eames (Lab) 40%
Morgan (SA) 10%
Halsey (Lib Dem) 4%
Freeman (NPP) 3%
Daniels (Green) 2%
Hale (Independent) 1%
*Second-preference
Eames (Lab) 51%
Jay (Con) 49%

*London Mayoral Election will be held on Thursday May 3rd.


 
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Quick question: I see you've been doing an alternate history on the UK which takes up quite some time as well. Are any other countries done like this? Specifically, I'm wondering if France might get this treatment too (I've a vested interest: I'm half-French ^^)
 
We have touched on all the "big" countries, Germany, Russia, France, Australia, and Canada.
The two main countries we have focused on are The United States and the UK. On the thread there are lists of the Leaders of Russia, Germany, Australia etc, but you would have to plough through to find them all.
 
Is there anyway that a thread following France could be added if I wanted. I'm not saying I will but since last year's election, I've been wandering what would happen if the far-right had come to power instead of a centrist. I have a few ideas, although not enough to start yet. But if I did, would that work here?
 
Is there anyway that a thread following France could be added if I wanted. I'm not saying I will but since last year's election, I've been wandering what would happen if the far-right had come to power instead of a centrist. I have a few ideas, although not enough to start yet. But if I did, would that work here?
This page, plus a couple of following it may be of help.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/2010-us-presidential-election.109942/page-122
 
D'astier was President of France in 2010, he was named in the show as President of France in September 2002, by January 2006 he was replaced by President Trenier but by August 2006 D'astier was back in Office!!
in the real world the term of the President of France was reduced from seven years to five in 2002, not sure if that helps much though!!
 
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Wednesday March 14th 2018

Thorn wins Mississippi after withdrawing & Gault wins big

New York Senator Andrew Thorn who withdrew from the Democratic Presidential race last week after Senator Seaborn achieved the required number of delegates from the nomination never the less remained on the ballot in Mississippi along with Indiana Senator Rudi Robinson, and Thorn racked up a landslide win winning 75.60% of the vote, with Senator Seaborn only narrowly holding off the challenge of Senator Robinson with Seaborn winning just 12.54% and Robinson 11.86%, a popular vote margin of only 1,636 votes.

On the Republican side as expected Kansas Governor Peter Gault won the states 40 delegates winning with 79.18% of the vote, to Henry Shallick's 14.89% and Congressman Durham's 5.93%. The result came as the legal wrangling over the result in Indiana last week continued.
 
politico.com, Wednesday March 13th

Seaborn Meets Hollis Amid Outreach To Business

In one of his first high profile set-piece engagements as the presumptive Presidential nominee for his party California Senator Sam Seaborn travelled to New York this morning to meet with Franklin Hollis, the billionaire tech entrepreneur. Having last week secured the endorsement of another successful philanthropist in Shannon Frost, Seaborn seemingly hopes to hook in Inksoft founder Hollis.

Mr Hollis is close to Seaborn’s campaign Chief CJ Cregg who is believed to have brokered the meeting at Hollis luxury uptown apartment this morning. Seaborn spent four hours with Mr Hollis and his campaign team released a series of photographs of the meeting alongside and Instagram post from the Senator saying “an absolute privilege to spend the morning with one of America’s finest entrepreneurs, businessmen and philanthropists – Frank Hollis. We discussed many great ideas on how to get small business out of the mess they’ve been left in by President Walken’s austerity agenda.”

It’s clear that Mr Seaborn is extremely keen to boost his credentials amongst the business community who seem to regard him with scepticism due to his time in the Bartlet and Santos administrations. The meeting with Mr Hollis appears to be another step in that direction, though there was no formal endorsement offered by the billionaire who said only via Twitter that he “greatly enjoyed the meeting”.

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Inksoft Creator Franklin Hollis
 
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Thursday March 15th 2018

Seaborn to meet with Democratic Senate & House Leadership

Presumptive Presidential nominee Sam Seaborn is to meet with Democratic Leadership from both the Senate and the House tonight in Washington.

Along with Senate Minority Leader Jimmy Fitzsimmons and Speaker of the House Daniel Maddox, we understand Senator's Thorn and Robinson will be present along with Fitzsimmons deputy Sarah O'Brien and her Whips Jay Mattock of North Dakota and Josh Copenhaver of Missouri.

A spokesman for the Seaborn campaign said "The Senator is keen to work with our Senate and House Leaderships teams on how we can go forward together towards November, and how we can win back not only the White House, the Senate and increase our control of the House".
 
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politico.com, Thursday March 15th

BREAKING: Seaborn and Robinson Meet Amid VP Speculation

Indiana Senator Rudi Robinson dodged reporters this morning as he arrived at the Washington home of California Senator Sam Seaborn, amid increasing questions as to why he has yet to officially withdraw from the race for President. As Seaborn as now secured enough delegates to secure the nomination many had expected Robinson’s official withdrawal last week but his campaign have continually said they would stay in for “the time being”.

The meeting in Adams-Morgan this morning is seen a prelude to speculation in the coming months around Seaborn’s Vice-Presidential nominee with Robinson likely to be very high on the list, the former Indiana Pacer had scoffed at the idea as recently as February but appeared to have soften his position significantly at the weekend saying “I will always consider any call to serve my country.”

The expectation of those around the party is that Robinson will withdraw shortly and that the meeting this morning was about securing Robinson’s public endorsement – a move seen as important as New York’s Andrew Thorn has yet to formally endorse the nominee in the midst of his withdrawal last week. A Seaborn spokesman said the meeting is likely to last for a few hours and that a statement would follow.
 
wsj.com, Thursay March 15th

Indiana GOP: “We can’t ratify result”

Patsy Sewell, the chairwoman of the Indiana Republican Party, issued a statement this morning saying that they remain unable to ratify the state primary result following ongoing legal challenges by the campaign of Kansas Governor Peter Gault. Following a forced recount the margin of victory for Governor Henry Shallick has reduced to 350 votes – but Gault’s legal team have succeeded in convincing the Indiana Supreme Court to hear arguments over whether a remaining number of contested votes should be counted. Gault’s legal team feel the votes would put them over the edge but his opponent contends that the chain of custody is far too contaminated to allow their inclusion.

With the result hanging in the balance the chances of a contested Republican convention are increasing every day. Governor Shallick will struggle to win enough remaining delegates to secure the nomination without Indiana and Governor Gault already lacks a clear path to the magic number. His campaign belief there is sufficient dissatisfaction with Shallick’s campaign that a contested convention could very well swing in their favour.

The Supreme Court have agreed to hear the arguments on an accelerated timescale following a motion introduced by the Shallick team.
 
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