2010 US Presidential Election
- Thread starter Marky Bunny
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It is just after 4am here on the East Coast.
Whilst the Democrats now have themselves a nominee in Senator Sam Seaborn, the Republican race now hangs on a absolute knife edge. We have been be able to project that Henry Shallick has been able to eek out very narrow wins in the states of Indiana and Rhode Island. These two states where a real blow to Governor Gault who has lost the Hoosier state after blowing a large state only a few weeks, whilst in Rhode Island Gault had been hoping that Congressman Durham would deny Shallick it's 19 delegates. It seems that Shallick has carried Indiana by around 1,200 votes (0.11%) and Rhode Island by 318 votes (0.51%), this now leaves him just 40 delegates away from the magic 1,281 required for the Republican Presidential nomination.
The other main story from the Democratic race also comes from the states of Indiana and Rhode Island.
Senator Rudi Robinson looks to have carried his home state after a three-way fight out with Seaborn and Thorn winning by around 6,300 votes, with it looking that only 13,000 or so votes between all thee men. This result is likely to boost Robinson hopes of re-election to the Senate and may leave him towards the top end on the list of Seaborn's potential Vice-President's.
In Rhode Island Senator Thorn carried the state and it's 33 delegates by 1,200 votes.
We will have the full results up later on during the day.
nbs.com, Wednesday March 7th
Gault Not Conceding Indiana As Shallick Team Call for Kansas Governor to Drop Out
In the midst of reports that Henry Shallick will carry the state of Indiana in tonight’s Republican Primary race two converging positions are emerging in the battle for the GOP nomination. The Shallick team are all but declaring victory with key surrogates calling on Gault to drop out and get behind the “presumptive nominee”. On the other side of the ledger the Gault team have expressed “concerns” at what they see as a premature announcement in the Hoosier State and are questioning counts in a number of counties.
Gault spokesman Kurt Furness told reporters at the campaign HQ in Wichita that “we are not conceding Indiana – it’s clear that the race remains too close to call and that a number of recounts will be required to get to a final result, I appreciate that Governor Shallick wants to avoid actually counting every vote, but we’ll do everything we can to ensure every single vote is counted.”
The Gault campaign are focused on what appear to be surprising results around New Market and Winona Lake where Shallick appears to have down better than expected. Both areas are strongly conservative and were expected to be areas where Gault would run up votes. Furness confirmed they were looking in those areas “we’ve had reports of irregularities –we intend to look into them fully to ensure that every vote was counted.”
In St Louis, the Shallick camp were quick to call for “party unity” clearly pushing that their man was now the presumptive nominee. “Governor Gault can’t win the nomination, it’s time for the party to unite behind the only man who can secure enough delegates and the only man who can now carry on the legacy of President Walken. Like it or not we now need to focus on the battle with Sam Seaborn and avoiding a return to the destructive policies of Bartlet’s America.”
The net result appears to be that Governor Shallick will be just 40 delegates from securing the nomination which me enough to shake significant party figures off the fence and behind him over the next few days.
Governor Shallick addresses supporters after last nights results
Gault Not Conceding Indiana As Shallick Team Call for Kansas Governor to Drop Out
In the midst of reports that Henry Shallick will carry the state of Indiana in tonight’s Republican Primary race two converging positions are emerging in the battle for the GOP nomination. The Shallick team are all but declaring victory with key surrogates calling on Gault to drop out and get behind the “presumptive nominee”. On the other side of the ledger the Gault team have expressed “concerns” at what they see as a premature announcement in the Hoosier State and are questioning counts in a number of counties.
Gault spokesman Kurt Furness told reporters at the campaign HQ in Wichita that “we are not conceding Indiana – it’s clear that the race remains too close to call and that a number of recounts will be required to get to a final result, I appreciate that Governor Shallick wants to avoid actually counting every vote, but we’ll do everything we can to ensure every single vote is counted.”
The Gault campaign are focused on what appear to be surprising results around New Market and Winona Lake where Shallick appears to have down better than expected. Both areas are strongly conservative and were expected to be areas where Gault would run up votes. Furness confirmed they were looking in those areas “we’ve had reports of irregularities –we intend to look into them fully to ensure that every vote was counted.”
In St Louis, the Shallick camp were quick to call for “party unity” clearly pushing that their man was now the presumptive nominee. “Governor Gault can’t win the nomination, it’s time for the party to unite behind the only man who can secure enough delegates and the only man who can now carry on the legacy of President Walken. Like it or not we now need to focus on the battle with Sam Seaborn and avoiding a return to the destructive policies of Bartlet’s America.”
The net result appears to be that Governor Shallick will be just 40 delegates from securing the nomination which me enough to shake significant party figures off the fence and behind him over the next few days.
Governor Shallick addresses supporters after last nights results
capitolbeat.com, Wednesday March 7th
Thorn: “Clear that Senator Seaborn is now our nominee”
New York Senator Andrew Thorn called an end to his quest for the White House this evening heaping praise on his opponent Sam Seaborn for a “spirited and well fought contest” and whilst he stopped short a full scale endorsement he told his supporters that “the time has come to put the hostility of the primary behind us and focus on putting a Democrat back in the White House.”
Thorn seemed relaxed the crowd called for his to fight on but he told those gathered at the campaign headquarters that they “fought the good fight, but it is clear they had no path to the nomination.” He confirmed he had called Senator Seaborn to offer his congratulations and said that his focus now would be on representing the people of New York and working to elect as many Democrats as he could in November.
Josh Lyman, Seaborn’s former campaign chief told Capitol Beat that “Sam is the perfect nominee, he’s an incredibly intelligent, empathic and talented man – I can’t think of anyone more worthy to be our President.”
Senator Thorn confirms the end of his Presidential run
Thorn: “Clear that Senator Seaborn is now our nominee”
New York Senator Andrew Thorn called an end to his quest for the White House this evening heaping praise on his opponent Sam Seaborn for a “spirited and well fought contest” and whilst he stopped short a full scale endorsement he told his supporters that “the time has come to put the hostility of the primary behind us and focus on putting a Democrat back in the White House.”
Thorn seemed relaxed the crowd called for his to fight on but he told those gathered at the campaign headquarters that they “fought the good fight, but it is clear they had no path to the nomination.” He confirmed he had called Senator Seaborn to offer his congratulations and said that his focus now would be on representing the people of New York and working to elect as many Democrats as he could in November.
Josh Lyman, Seaborn’s former campaign chief told Capitol Beat that “Sam is the perfect nominee, he’s an incredibly intelligent, empathic and talented man – I can’t think of anyone more worthy to be our President.”
Senator Thorn confirms the end of his Presidential run
Politico.com
Wednesday March 7th 2018
"Campaigning with Shadows"
by John Edwards
It was just after 9:00pm Eastern Standard Time on March 6th, 2018, when Samuel Norman Seaborn, the Senior United States from California became the Democratic Party's presumptive Nominee for President of the United States. A moment that seemed to be a forgone conclusion a year ago that became doubtful just 2 months ago. However, while many of the party faithful have seen this day as inevitable, many were hoping that it wasn't. Senator Seaborn becomes the nominee of his party at a precarious time; a time where it seems that a civil war is brewing between the Old Guard and the New Blood. There is no better evidence to this than the bitter rivalry that has developed between the two top contenders for the nomination. While some had previously been hopeful of a "Dream Team" ticket of Seaborn/Thorn or vice-versa, that dream has no become but a distant memory as the political version of a blood feud developed between the two senators and their respective camps. Unfortunately for Senator Seaborn, Andrew Thorn is not the only one that he was to make nice with. More so than anytime since 1968, the Democratic Party is fractured. Senator Seaborn's contentious relationship with House Speaker Daniel Maddox is well documented, and time has done nothing to ameliorate the rift between Seaborn and Democratic Senate Leader Jimmy Fitzsimmons over what many saw as a snub four years ago when Seaborn was rumored to be Fitzsimmons' top choice for a running mate. Seaborn also faces tenuous relationships with other party elders including Former Vice Presidents John Hoynes and Bob Russell. Even among his own supporters, Seaborn faces trouble, as will Mississippi Governor Alan Fisk, who withdrew his early endorsement of Senator Seaborn over what the Governor termed "the leftward course" of the Seaborn Campaign.
But perhaps Senator Seaborn's greatest political enemy, is himself. From the beginning of his campaign, Senator Seaborn used his connections that he had built up over 20 years in 2 Presidential Administrations well to his advantage. Seemingly unable to escape the political shadows of his former bosses, Senator Seaborn embraced his political heritage as a so-called "Bartlettista", playing up in nearly every speech and event his credentials as a former member of the White House Senior Staff. he used his personal relationships with the likes of Josh Lyman, Claudia Jean Cregg, Elizabeth Bartlett, the Santos Family and other party figures to his advantage, securing hundreds of early endorsements throughout early 2017. This advantage, however, has come at a deep cost. to begin with, Senator Seaborn has lower support among African American voters than any other Democratic Nominee since George McGovern in 1972. And while this by itself would not necessarily be a problem, for Senator Seaborn, it is only the beginning. Recent polling shows that close to 3/4 of Thorn voters believe that the DNC at least partially influenced the primaries in favor of Senator Seaborn. And, unfortunately for the Seaborn Campaign, these beliefs are not with out evidence. When former President Matt Santos broke the unwritten rule about primary endorsements last month, he unwittingly set of a firestorm among the Democratic faithful. A move that former Vice President and fellow Texan John Hoynes called "unheard of and unprofessional", the endorsement was heavily frowned upon by several Democratic Party elders, including the party Leadership in both the House and Senate, as well as multiple Governors. But perhaps the most damning evidence against Senator Seaborn is the rumor that fellow candidate Rudi Robinson is at the top of Seaborn's shortlist for a running mate. Robinson, who has remained in the race despite having long fallen out of serious contention for the nomination, has been widely seen, even by many Seaborn supporters, as playing the spoiler, siphoning off hundreds of thousands of votes from Andrew Thorn, leading to several wins by plurality for Senator Seaborn; wins that would likely not have come in a straight one-on-one matchup. Senator Seaborn has not done himself any favors by not denying the VP rumors, as well as his insistence the Senator Robinson be included in any debate despite the fact that Robinson has been mathematically eliminated on "Super-Dupa Tuesday". These moves have only served to infuriate the moderates in the party, with Oklahoma Governor Rob Kenny telling Seaborn "just man up and debate".
Forever stuck in the shadow of Presidents Bartlett and Santos, Senator Seaborn has now been shackled by a new albatross: The Establishment. Plagued by party infighting and accused of cheating, Senator Seaborn now faces the colossal task of bringing his party together at a time when it seems nearly impossible. 20 years ago, Sam Seaborn was but a lowly speechwriter on the campaign of a no-name Governor from New England. He worked for a campaign that he claimed "was told to get out of the way". Now, 20 years later, History seems to have repeated itself, only now, with Seaborn supporters telling others to "get out of the way". Whether the Senator will admit it or not, he is the establishment. He is the embodiment of the 20 years of a party controlled by Jed Bartlett, Matt Santos, Josh Lyman and CJ Cregg. For 20 years, the Bartlett Wing casted its shadow over the entire party, forcing all candidates to bow to it's power and prestige. But now, a new force has emerged; one that has combined the old moderates with the new ones. One that has injected new life and a new way of thinking into the Democratic Party. It is now the task of Senator Seaborn to bring these two factions together. The sun has set on the Democratic Party of old, and has risen to the birth of a new age. Only time will tell if it is Sam Seaborn who will unite this new party, stronger than ever before, or if he will only serve to tear it further apart.
Wednesday March 7th 2018
"Campaigning with Shadows"
by John Edwards
It was just after 9:00pm Eastern Standard Time on March 6th, 2018, when Samuel Norman Seaborn, the Senior United States from California became the Democratic Party's presumptive Nominee for President of the United States. A moment that seemed to be a forgone conclusion a year ago that became doubtful just 2 months ago. However, while many of the party faithful have seen this day as inevitable, many were hoping that it wasn't. Senator Seaborn becomes the nominee of his party at a precarious time; a time where it seems that a civil war is brewing between the Old Guard and the New Blood. There is no better evidence to this than the bitter rivalry that has developed between the two top contenders for the nomination. While some had previously been hopeful of a "Dream Team" ticket of Seaborn/Thorn or vice-versa, that dream has no become but a distant memory as the political version of a blood feud developed between the two senators and their respective camps. Unfortunately for Senator Seaborn, Andrew Thorn is not the only one that he was to make nice with. More so than anytime since 1968, the Democratic Party is fractured. Senator Seaborn's contentious relationship with House Speaker Daniel Maddox is well documented, and time has done nothing to ameliorate the rift between Seaborn and Democratic Senate Leader Jimmy Fitzsimmons over what many saw as a snub four years ago when Seaborn was rumored to be Fitzsimmons' top choice for a running mate. Seaborn also faces tenuous relationships with other party elders including Former Vice Presidents John Hoynes and Bob Russell. Even among his own supporters, Seaborn faces trouble, as will Mississippi Governor Alan Fisk, who withdrew his early endorsement of Senator Seaborn over what the Governor termed "the leftward course" of the Seaborn Campaign.
But perhaps Senator Seaborn's greatest political enemy, is himself. From the beginning of his campaign, Senator Seaborn used his connections that he had built up over 20 years in 2 Presidential Administrations well to his advantage. Seemingly unable to escape the political shadows of his former bosses, Senator Seaborn embraced his political heritage as a so-called "Bartlettista", playing up in nearly every speech and event his credentials as a former member of the White House Senior Staff. he used his personal relationships with the likes of Josh Lyman, Claudia Jean Cregg, Elizabeth Bartlett, the Santos Family and other party figures to his advantage, securing hundreds of early endorsements throughout early 2017. This advantage, however, has come at a deep cost. to begin with, Senator Seaborn has lower support among African American voters than any other Democratic Nominee since George McGovern in 1972. And while this by itself would not necessarily be a problem, for Senator Seaborn, it is only the beginning. Recent polling shows that close to 3/4 of Thorn voters believe that the DNC at least partially influenced the primaries in favor of Senator Seaborn. And, unfortunately for the Seaborn Campaign, these beliefs are not with out evidence. When former President Matt Santos broke the unwritten rule about primary endorsements last month, he unwittingly set of a firestorm among the Democratic faithful. A move that former Vice President and fellow Texan John Hoynes called "unheard of and unprofessional", the endorsement was heavily frowned upon by several Democratic Party elders, including the party Leadership in both the House and Senate, as well as multiple Governors. But perhaps the most damning evidence against Senator Seaborn is the rumor that fellow candidate Rudi Robinson is at the top of Seaborn's shortlist for a running mate. Robinson, who has remained in the race despite having long fallen out of serious contention for the nomination, has been widely seen, even by many Seaborn supporters, as playing the spoiler, siphoning off hundreds of thousands of votes from Andrew Thorn, leading to several wins by plurality for Senator Seaborn; wins that would likely not have come in a straight one-on-one matchup. Senator Seaborn has not done himself any favors by not denying the VP rumors, as well as his insistence the Senator Robinson be included in any debate despite the fact that Robinson has been mathematically eliminated on "Super-Dupa Tuesday". These moves have only served to infuriate the moderates in the party, with Oklahoma Governor Rob Kenny telling Seaborn "just man up and debate".
Forever stuck in the shadow of Presidents Bartlett and Santos, Senator Seaborn has now been shackled by a new albatross: The Establishment. Plagued by party infighting and accused of cheating, Senator Seaborn now faces the colossal task of bringing his party together at a time when it seems nearly impossible. 20 years ago, Sam Seaborn was but a lowly speechwriter on the campaign of a no-name Governor from New England. He worked for a campaign that he claimed "was told to get out of the way". Now, 20 years later, History seems to have repeated itself, only now, with Seaborn supporters telling others to "get out of the way". Whether the Senator will admit it or not, he is the establishment. He is the embodiment of the 20 years of a party controlled by Jed Bartlett, Matt Santos, Josh Lyman and CJ Cregg. For 20 years, the Bartlett Wing casted its shadow over the entire party, forcing all candidates to bow to it's power and prestige. But now, a new force has emerged; one that has combined the old moderates with the new ones. One that has injected new life and a new way of thinking into the Democratic Party. It is now the task of Senator Seaborn to bring these two factions together. The sun has set on the Democratic Party of old, and has risen to the birth of a new age. Only time will tell if it is Sam Seaborn who will unite this new party, stronger than ever before, or if he will only serve to tear it further apart.
"Donna, bring me the finest muffins in all the land"
Twenty years in the making. What a time to be alive.
Here is the state of the Democratic race overall:
2,358 Delagates are required for the Democratic Presidential Nomination
Pop Vote Margin: 355,561
% Margin: 1.10%
Seaborn (also won Guam, Northern Marianian Islands, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands)
Thorn
Robinson (also won American Samoa)
2,358 Delagates are required for the Democratic Presidential Nomination
- Sam Seaborn 12,857,203 39.70% 2,360 Delegates (Senator Seaborn is 2 delegates over the required total he is now the presumptive nominee)
- Andrew Thorn 12,501,642 38.60 % 1,663 Delegates
- Rudi Robinson 5,987,836 18.49% 313 Delegates
- Michael Kellner 618,085 1.91% 0 Delegates
- Paris Stray 405,354 1.25% 0 Delegates
- Kurt Carner 12,335 0.04% 0 Delegates
- Scott Bighorse 1,859 0.01% 0 Delegates
Pop Vote Margin: 355,561
% Margin: 1.10%
Seaborn (also won Guam, Northern Marianian Islands, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands)
Thorn
Robinson (also won American Samoa)
Ah thanks.
It just seems odd that Josh and CJ would clash like that.
Seems like only the President and Leo could hold them together.
It doesn't seem seem odd at all to me. These are people of character with different opinions on politics: Josh was always more competitive than CJ, but she was always quite assertive. If they were both charged with running the campaign, I can perfectly imagine them being of different opinions without the President or Leo to hold them together. Let's not forget that these are people who can hold grudges: CJ certainly left Danny in the doghouse for a long time in the last few episodes of Season 1.
"Fitzsimmons and Wallace Attend Dedication of the U.S.S. Fitzwallace"
Washington Post
March 8th, 2018
While the race for the Democratic nomination effectively ended today a story that was less covered was the episode involving President Glen Allen Walken and Senator and 2014 Democratic nominee Jimmy Fitzsimmons. The two former political rivals attended the dedication of the U.S.S. Fitzwallace, named after former Admiral and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Percy Fitzwallace who died in the 2005 Gaza terrorist bombing. Also attending the dedication were Fitzwallace's widow and Fitzwallace's successor, General and former Presidential candidate Nicholas Alexander. Senator Fitzsimmons, who was instrumental in convincing the Secretary of the Navy last year to name the aircraft carrier after Admiral Fitzwallace, praised Fitzwallace for his work in helping to promote diversity within the U.S. military and for proving to be an inspiration for millions of Americans. Fitzwallace's widow declared that her husband would have been proud that his death resulted in the subsequent summit between Israel and Palestine.
Washington Post
March 8th, 2018
While the race for the Democratic nomination effectively ended today a story that was less covered was the episode involving President Glen Allen Walken and Senator and 2014 Democratic nominee Jimmy Fitzsimmons. The two former political rivals attended the dedication of the U.S.S. Fitzwallace, named after former Admiral and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Percy Fitzwallace who died in the 2005 Gaza terrorist bombing. Also attending the dedication were Fitzwallace's widow and Fitzwallace's successor, General and former Presidential candidate Nicholas Alexander. Senator Fitzsimmons, who was instrumental in convincing the Secretary of the Navy last year to name the aircraft carrier after Admiral Fitzwallace, praised Fitzwallace for his work in helping to promote diversity within the U.S. military and for proving to be an inspiration for millions of Americans. Fitzwallace's widow declared that her husband would have been proud that his death resulted in the subsequent summit between Israel and Palestine.
Here is the state of the Democratic race overall:
2,358 Delagates are required for the Democratic Presidential Nomination
Total Vote: 32,384,314
- Sam Seaborn 12,857,203 39.70% 2,360 Delegates (Senator Seaborn is 2 delegates over the required total he is now the presumptive nominee)
- Andrew Thorn 12,501,642 38.60 % 1,663 Delegates
- Rudi Robinson 5,987,836 18.49% 313 Delegates
- Michael Kellner 618,085 1.91% 0 Delegates
- Paris Stray 405,354 1.25% 0 Delegates
- Kurt Carner 12,335 0.04% 0 Delegates
- Scott Bighorse 1,859 0.01% 0 Delegates
Pop Vote Margin: 355,561
% Margin: 1.10%
Seaborn (also won Guam, Northern Marianian Islands, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands)
Thorn
Robinson (also won American Samoa)
It's really impressive that Sam clinched before the Pennsylvania primary.
politico.com
Wednesday March 7, 2018
Possible Shortlists for Seaborn's VP pick
Senator Sam Seaborn of California has just clinched the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. Although he doesn't have to pick for a few months, speculation about who he'll pick to balance out the ticket is going to dominate the party until the convention. Here is a potential shortlist, in no particular order, with some picks that make sense and some wild picks out of left field.
1. Senator Rudi Robinson (IN)
Why: Senator Robinson proved to be a force to be reckoned with this primary, holding his own agains party heavyweights in Senators Thorn (NY) and Seaborn. In addition to a few surprise wins, he was able to win his home state in the primaries. Robinson is fairly young, and gives the Democrats a strong chance at winning the Rust Belt. In addition, the presence of an African-American on the ticket would likely boost turnout among African American voters, especially in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Why not: Senator Robinson is facing a strong challenger in November for his Senate seat, and Indiana is a state that trends Republican. If a Republican is elected to the governor's mansion and Senator Robinson is elected Vice President, a Republican would fill the seat until a special election, one that the GOP would be more likely to win. In any case, it would fall to the gubernatorial election, which puts the Democrats in a very difficult position should Robinson be on the ticket.
2: Senator Andrew Thorn (NY)
Why: Senator Thorn is a force within the party, is young, and has the ability to put the Southeast in play. He proved his skill in campaigning by providing Seaborn a stronger challenge than expected, and seemed willing to make nice in his concession speech. Thorn is also willing to help down-ballot candidates, improving the Democrats' chances of claiming a mandate.
Why not: The entire 2018 primary. The two heavyweights traded heavy blows with each other, giving their GOP opponent free material. Thorn seriously damaged his standing with women after releasing an ad that implied that Assistant US Attorney Laurie Edelstein slept her way to her role, citing her past as an escort. Thorn's home state, New York, is reliably Democratic, meaning his presence on a ticket wouldn't do much in terms of regional implications. In addition, moderates might not be too pleased to see two coastal Democrats on the same ticket, and Thorn seems better positioned to use his new national influence as a Senator.
3: Representative Will Bailey (OR)
Why: Rep. Bailey has experience working in the White House, where he served as President Bartlet's Deputy Communications Director before becoming then-Vice President Russell's Chief of Staff, ultimately managing his unsuccessful 2006 presidential bid. Bailey is a brilliant campaigner, as evidenced by his ability to posthumously elect Horton Wilde to California's 47th District in 2006, a seat that has been reliably Republican. Due to his upbringing in a military family, as well as his time as an Air Force Reservist, Rep. Bailey could attract military families, as well as more hawkish independents worried about Seaborn's lack of a military background.
Why not: Rep. Bailey, like Senator Seaborn, is a West Coast Democrat, and independents might not want two coastal Democrats on the same ticket. He has also seems to be content with his role in Congress, and is another relic of the Bartlet Democrats, which might disappoint more progressive Democrats who want to see a changing of the guard in the party's leadership. As popular as President Bartlet was, voters aren't that interested in a potential Bartlet sequel, which his presence on the ticket would indicate.
4: August Adair (OH)
Why: Adair would provide experience and political savvy to a young Seaborn ticket. Although he'll be 70 by Inauguration Day, he is in good health and good spirits, and shows no sign of slowing down, as evidenced by his work with America Together.
Why not: He was the VP pick in 2014, and although he helped deliver Ohio for the Democrats, his presence on the ticket didn't help in the crucial Rust Belt state of Pennsylvania, and Al Kiefer put it best: Democrats prefer the shiny new toy over the old rocking horse. He'd also be be 73 during a potential re-election campaign, so he's a definite long-shot.
5: National Security Advisor Kate Harper-Bailey
Why: Harper-Bailey would provide significant foreign policy credentials to a Seaborn ticket, and has done extraordinarily well serving two administrations. She is known to be persuasive, a trait that comes in handy for political candidates, and is moderate enough to attract independents.
Why not: I'll admit, she's a longer long-shot than anyone on this list. She's not committed to any partisan ideology, meaning some Democrats may not be able to support her, and she's probably too hawkish for most Democrats. Also, it's unlikely that she'll want to stay for another administration, and her relationship with Senator Seaborn isn't well documented, although he and her husband are friends.
6:Nancy McNally
Why: McNally was brilliant as National Security Advisor, overseeing operations in Haiti, Qumar, Equitorial Kundu, Iran, and Georgia. She was an excellent NSA director as well, proving to be adept at protecting American security interests. In addition, she has skills in diplomacy, serving as the United States Ambassador to the UN under President Santos, and working with Secretary of State Arnold Vinick to secure peace in Kazakhstan. As an African American woman, her presence on the ticket would drive up turnout in several key states, and her foreign policy experience would placate voters worried about Senator Seaborn.
Why not: Like Harper-Bailey, McNally isn't married to the Democratic Party. In addition, she has shown no desire to return to politics, and even then, would likely be better placed as Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense in a potential Seaborn administration.
Wednesday March 7, 2018
Possible Shortlists for Seaborn's VP pick
Senator Sam Seaborn of California has just clinched the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. Although he doesn't have to pick for a few months, speculation about who he'll pick to balance out the ticket is going to dominate the party until the convention. Here is a potential shortlist, in no particular order, with some picks that make sense and some wild picks out of left field.
1. Senator Rudi Robinson (IN)
Why: Senator Robinson proved to be a force to be reckoned with this primary, holding his own agains party heavyweights in Senators Thorn (NY) and Seaborn. In addition to a few surprise wins, he was able to win his home state in the primaries. Robinson is fairly young, and gives the Democrats a strong chance at winning the Rust Belt. In addition, the presence of an African-American on the ticket would likely boost turnout among African American voters, especially in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Why not: Senator Robinson is facing a strong challenger in November for his Senate seat, and Indiana is a state that trends Republican. If a Republican is elected to the governor's mansion and Senator Robinson is elected Vice President, a Republican would fill the seat until a special election, one that the GOP would be more likely to win. In any case, it would fall to the gubernatorial election, which puts the Democrats in a very difficult position should Robinson be on the ticket.
2: Senator Andrew Thorn (NY)
Why: Senator Thorn is a force within the party, is young, and has the ability to put the Southeast in play. He proved his skill in campaigning by providing Seaborn a stronger challenge than expected, and seemed willing to make nice in his concession speech. Thorn is also willing to help down-ballot candidates, improving the Democrats' chances of claiming a mandate.
Why not: The entire 2018 primary. The two heavyweights traded heavy blows with each other, giving their GOP opponent free material. Thorn seriously damaged his standing with women after releasing an ad that implied that Assistant US Attorney Laurie Edelstein slept her way to her role, citing her past as an escort. Thorn's home state, New York, is reliably Democratic, meaning his presence on a ticket wouldn't do much in terms of regional implications. In addition, moderates might not be too pleased to see two coastal Democrats on the same ticket, and Thorn seems better positioned to use his new national influence as a Senator.
3: Representative Will Bailey (OR)
Why: Rep. Bailey has experience working in the White House, where he served as President Bartlet's Deputy Communications Director before becoming then-Vice President Russell's Chief of Staff, ultimately managing his unsuccessful 2006 presidential bid. Bailey is a brilliant campaigner, as evidenced by his ability to posthumously elect Horton Wilde to California's 47th District in 2006, a seat that has been reliably Republican. Due to his upbringing in a military family, as well as his time as an Air Force Reservist, Rep. Bailey could attract military families, as well as more hawkish independents worried about Seaborn's lack of a military background.
Why not: Rep. Bailey, like Senator Seaborn, is a West Coast Democrat, and independents might not want two coastal Democrats on the same ticket. He has also seems to be content with his role in Congress, and is another relic of the Bartlet Democrats, which might disappoint more progressive Democrats who want to see a changing of the guard in the party's leadership. As popular as President Bartlet was, voters aren't that interested in a potential Bartlet sequel, which his presence on the ticket would indicate.
4: August Adair (OH)
Why: Adair would provide experience and political savvy to a young Seaborn ticket. Although he'll be 70 by Inauguration Day, he is in good health and good spirits, and shows no sign of slowing down, as evidenced by his work with America Together.
Why not: He was the VP pick in 2014, and although he helped deliver Ohio for the Democrats, his presence on the ticket didn't help in the crucial Rust Belt state of Pennsylvania, and Al Kiefer put it best: Democrats prefer the shiny new toy over the old rocking horse. He'd also be be 73 during a potential re-election campaign, so he's a definite long-shot.
5: National Security Advisor Kate Harper-Bailey
Why: Harper-Bailey would provide significant foreign policy credentials to a Seaborn ticket, and has done extraordinarily well serving two administrations. She is known to be persuasive, a trait that comes in handy for political candidates, and is moderate enough to attract independents.
Why not: I'll admit, she's a longer long-shot than anyone on this list. She's not committed to any partisan ideology, meaning some Democrats may not be able to support her, and she's probably too hawkish for most Democrats. Also, it's unlikely that she'll want to stay for another administration, and her relationship with Senator Seaborn isn't well documented, although he and her husband are friends.
6:Nancy McNally
Why: McNally was brilliant as National Security Advisor, overseeing operations in Haiti, Qumar, Equitorial Kundu, Iran, and Georgia. She was an excellent NSA director as well, proving to be adept at protecting American security interests. In addition, she has skills in diplomacy, serving as the United States Ambassador to the UN under President Santos, and working with Secretary of State Arnold Vinick to secure peace in Kazakhstan. As an African American woman, her presence on the ticket would drive up turnout in several key states, and her foreign policy experience would placate voters worried about Senator Seaborn.
Why not: Like Harper-Bailey, McNally isn't married to the Democratic Party. In addition, she has shown no desire to return to politics, and even then, would likely be better placed as Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense in a potential Seaborn administration.
Is Carol Gelsey (FL-19) still active/alive in this thread? I remember her stepping down as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, but can't recall if she's still in office. Why not float her name as a potential running mate for Seaborn?
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townhall.com, Thursday March 8th
Gault Team Launch Legal Challenge to Indiana Result
The campaign of Governor Peter Gault were successful late last night in securing a court ruling to prevent the confirmation of the GOP’s Indiana Primary amid claims of voting irregularities in key districts during Tuesday’s vote.
Mike Weir, the legal lead for the Gault campaign spoke to reporters outside the court house in Indianapolis where Judge Kate McCrory granted the motion to stay the results until further legal arguments are heard. “It’s clear from the evidence we introduce that there are serious questions in a number of districts and that the rush by the state party to ratify questionable results is completely wrong.”
Sources close to the Gault campaign made clear that they fully intend to contest the Indiana result “every step of the way”. Spokesman Kurt Furness threw further fuel to the fire saying that “despite all of the resources that the Shallick campaign threw at the state we think that the evidence suggests Governor Gault has probably won the state – too many votes haven’t been counted and almost all of them are in districts with very pro-Gault constituencies.”
The Shallick legal team argued strongly that the result was conclusive and that the evidence being produced was largely anecdotal but it’s believed that a number of missing voting boxes tipped the case in the favour of the Kansas Governor. The Shallick team confirmed that they will appeal the judgement immediately and were hoping that the result could be ratified by the weekend.
Gault Team Launch Legal Challenge to Indiana Result
The campaign of Governor Peter Gault were successful late last night in securing a court ruling to prevent the confirmation of the GOP’s Indiana Primary amid claims of voting irregularities in key districts during Tuesday’s vote.
Mike Weir, the legal lead for the Gault campaign spoke to reporters outside the court house in Indianapolis where Judge Kate McCrory granted the motion to stay the results until further legal arguments are heard. “It’s clear from the evidence we introduce that there are serious questions in a number of districts and that the rush by the state party to ratify questionable results is completely wrong.”
Sources close to the Gault campaign made clear that they fully intend to contest the Indiana result “every step of the way”. Spokesman Kurt Furness threw further fuel to the fire saying that “despite all of the resources that the Shallick campaign threw at the state we think that the evidence suggests Governor Gault has probably won the state – too many votes haven’t been counted and almost all of them are in districts with very pro-Gault constituencies.”
The Shallick legal team argued strongly that the result was conclusive and that the evidence being produced was largely anecdotal but it’s believed that a number of missing voting boxes tipped the case in the favour of the Kansas Governor. The Shallick team confirmed that they will appeal the judgement immediately and were hoping that the result could be ratified by the weekend.
Because of the outgoing situation in Indiana, NBS will not be producing it's updated Republican Primary Map and results until that situation has been resolved.
I disagree with McNally or Kate.... neither has been an executive (e.g. Governor)... with Sam Seaborn lacking that on his resume, it would be good to find a sitting or recently term-limited Governor with popular appeal outside of his or her state. Who would be a leading Democratic Governor with voter-appeal outside of their home state? Interested to hear from the regular "posters" to this thread.
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