Lands of Red and Gold, Act II

Mapuche versus Maori is a matchup I'd really like to see, honestly. Two of the fiercest warrior folk in the world up against each other in a no-holds barred contest. :D

Ironically, the northernmost Mapuche lands would be a prime spot for Aururian crops (not so much further south, but still). IOTL, the Mapuche were fairly quick in adopting European ones. Among Native Americans ITTL, the Mapuche are likely to be among the less unfortunate.
And a clash between them and the Maori would indeed be interesting. Now, if you can figure a way to insert Scottish Highlanders in the mix... :D
 
And a clash between them and the Maori would indeed be interesting. Now, if you can figure a way to insert Scottish Highlanders in the mix... :D

It need not be a clash, though. A very small settlement of Maori could live peacefully with the Mapuche, as long as they don't side with white settlers. Native Americans throughout history have made peace with settlers in an attempt to play them off against rival Indians or other foreign powers-that's pretty much been an ultimately disastrous decision every time it was made IOTL, but given the long distances involved and the difficulty of Maori power projection, a Mapuche/Maori alliance could result in a balance where the Maori don't overwhelm the Mapuche.

Of course, I think that *Chile and *Argentina might not react favorably to non-Christian Pacific Islanders suddenly appearing in Auraucania...
 
I wonder if the more "adventurous" nature of the Maori ITTL, might cause the Europeans to explore the Pacific Islands sooner. Especially if they start to spread their raiding into SE Asia and disrupt larger trade interests. Forcing them to try and find their homelands in order to deal with the "problem."

On another north, with the Nuttana expanding their trade networks under the Dutch and English noses. It would be interesting to see them insert themselves into poltics of SE Asia especially the Malay Sultantes, and thus the history *Indonesia, *Malaysia, and *Singapore.
 
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It need not be a clash, though. A very small settlement of Maori could live peacefully with the Mapuche, as long as they don't side with white settlers. Native Americans throughout history have made peace with settlers in an attempt to play them off against rival Indians or other foreign powers-that's pretty much been an ultimately disastrous decision every time it was made IOTL, but given the long distances involved and the difficulty of Maori power projection, a Mapuche/Maori alliance could result in a balance where the Maori don't overwhelm the Mapuche.

Of course, I think that *Chile and *Argentina might not react favorably to non-Christian Pacific Islanders suddenly appearing in Auraucania...

I suppose that this settlement may happen as early as during the Spanish rule over the nearby white-dominated areas. That would be even more fun.
 
Of course, I think that *Chile and *Argentina might not react favorably to non-Christian Pacific Islanders suddenly appearing in Auraucania...

I think Jared's established there will be no one religion among the Maori. Some will be Christian, some Plirite, and others will follow the traditional religion for some time.

If they got along well with the Mapuche, the idea of the Mapuche being converted to the Sevenfold Path is amusing. You'd end up with Plirite states on every continent but Europe.
 

mojojojo

Gone Fishin'
If they got along well with the Mapuche, the idea of the Mapuche being converted to the Sevenfold Path is amusing. You'd end up with Plirite states on every continent but Europe.

That would make things very interesting, good idea!
 
Just discovered the timeline and I have to say that I love it so far.

Glad you like it. More instalments are coming soon, hopefully. :D

Jared's said before that with the introduction of Aururian plagues, Amerinds ended up doing much worse overall, with many cultures which survived IOTL dying out entirely.

That said, the population density was so high in former Inca areas I'd expect to see population continuity there, if nowhere else.

The Amerindian peoples certainly do worse overall, but there's some important distinctions to be made between populations. Alien epidemic diseases hit anyone hard, but they hit harder for populations who don't have a history of being exposed to any epidemic diseases.

By the 1630s, when the Aururian plagues hit the New World, the longer-colonised parts of the New World have a century or so of being exposed to Old World diseases. Where the pre-Columbian population density was high enough, that meant that this exposure was continuous - and so the Amerindian survivors have that history of epidemic disease exposure. And thus those peoples aren't hit any harder by the Aururian plagues than are Europeans.

This basically means that in places where agriculture was very productive and had large populations, they will be hit no worse than Europeans. Essentially, this means Mesoamerica and the former Incan realms, plus a few of their neighbours. Areas where agriculture was less productive, or which were still hunter-gatherers (i.e. most of the rest of the Americas) will be hit even worse by the Aururian plagues. Those are the particularly vulnerable areas.

I'm wondering if there's some way some Aururian group claims/settles Patagonia before any European power gets there? It wasn't really settled in any major way by Europeans until the mid-19th century IOTL, and the Nuttana will certainly discover it when they circumnavigate the globe.

Coincidentally, the instalment I'm working on now gives the date for when the Nuttana circumnavigate the globe. :D

That said, most Aururian crops will be rubbish for the climate, although Emu ranching and Murnong along the West coast would seem possible. I don't think the Nuttana would see any point in settling it at all. On the other hand, I think some factions of the Maori would quite like the idea of settling the area, particularly the West coast, which isn't too different from home - except there aren't other clans out there trying to kill you.

The Nuttana don't have the population base to go in for any major overseas settlement. They do victualling stations and trading outposts, but not much else. They might see some value in a resupply point somewhere in southern South America - it's on the way around the world for them, or if they're going up into the Atlantic - but that's about it.

The Maori, possibly. There's quite a few considerations here, including what the Spanish have to say about the matter, what the Mapuche have to say about the matter, but mostly whether the Maori are more interested in locations closer to home. And on what trade routes develop along the Southern Pacific (of which more below).

I was about to reply that diseases would remove a lot of desire for colonization on the Maori's part, but then I remembered that even IOTL some of them tried to colonize the Chatham Islands to escape inter-tribal warfare in New Zealand. A higher Maori population could produce someone with the drive and skill to get a Maori settlement in Patagonia.

Of course, they could just try to enslave and conquer other Pacific Islands as per OTL.

Yeah, the thing about the Maori intertribal wars (OTL or TTL) is that the losers usually fled somewhere. They tended to live on another neutral tribe's lands for a bit before striking out somewhere else, when they could. (Sometimes they couldn't even do that, of course.)

ITTL, there's a lot more Maori, and they have more of the navigational skills which they lost in OTL. In some cases, they will even have access to Nangu shipbuilding techniques. A decent Nangu-style ship could sail from New Zealand to South America in about 45-55 days. Of course, the same ship could also sail to any other target they might choose in the Pacific or eastern Australia.

Mapuche versus Maori is a matchup I'd really like to see, honestly. Two of the fiercest warrior folk in the world up against each other in a no-holds barred contest. :D

"Maori, you have the guns, but we've got the numbers!"

One of the more tragic things about a Maori expansion across the Pacific or South America is that they will almost inevitably have asymptomatic carriers of Marnitja among them. So wherever they land, they'll bring the Waiting Death with them.

Remember that there's a lot more Maori ITTL than IOTL. IIRC, Jared said in one post the population density of New Zealand (due to better climate) ends up far denser than Australia. Thus it's highly likely even after the plagues you'll end up with many more people than lived in New Zealand prior to OTL British settlement.

There's somewhere between 3-4 million Maori living in New Zealand ITTL pre-European contact. Even allowing for a lot of dead in intertribal wars and European diseases, that's still probably 1+ million Maori left. That's a lot of people who might go raiding.

I'm sure there will be some of that going on too. Give TTL another century, and there will be enough "free companies" roaming around the Pacific for them to end up all kinds of weird places.

That's already started, in fact. The Pakanga raids have been touched on in recent posts. While no analogy should be stretched too far, this is the closest Maori equivalent to the Vikings.

Whether Maori Vikings could make it to Patagonia, who knows, but they will end up in all sorts of places.

Ironically, the northernmost Mapuche lands would be a prime spot for Aururian crops (not so much further south, but still). IOTL, the Mapuche were fairly quick in adopting European ones. Among Native Americans ITTL, the Mapuche are likely to be among the less unfortunate.

The Mapuche were good at adopting European crops. The drawback is that the Argentines are adopting them first and fastest. The consequences for the Mapuche may not be entirely positive.

And a clash between them and the Maori would indeed be interesting. Now, if you can figure a way to insert Scottish Highlanders in the mix... :D

That is the sort of AH challenge that is so tempting to find a way to bring about. If some English government become concerned enough about the Scottish Highlanders to try to find a way to dump them at the other end of the world...

It need not be a clash, though. A very small settlement of Maori could live peacefully with the Mapuche, as long as they don't side with white settlers. Native Americans throughout history have made peace with settlers in an attempt to play them off against rival Indians or other foreign powers-that's pretty much been an ultimately disastrous decision every time it was made IOTL, but given the long distances involved and the difficulty of Maori power projection, a Mapuche/Maori alliance could result in a balance where the Maori don't overwhelm the Mapuche.

There's also matters of logistics and demographics. While the Maori will probably acquire ships capable of sailing to South America, that doesn't mean that there will be a million Maori descending on Patagonia, either. I'm not sure how many Mapuche there were in total. Half a million? More? Less? But they will probably outnumber any would-be Maori colonists by a fair margin.

Of course, if the Mapuche are not politically united, then that may mean that alliances are formed between Maori and some Mapuche groups against other Mapuche.

Of course, I think that *Chile and *Argentina might not react favorably to non-Christian Pacific Islanders suddenly appearing in Auraucania...

They wouldn't be hugely fond of it, but it's a question of how much effective power they can project, and how much they care. I'm not informed enough about the former to do more than guess.

I wonder if the more "adventurous" nature of the Maori ITTL, might cause the Europeans to explore the Pacific Islands sooner. Especially if they start to spread their raiding into SE Asia and disrupt larger trade interests. Forcing them to try and find their homelands in order to deal with the "problem."

Much depends how far the Maori Pakanga raids spread. Of course, technology is not hugely in the Maori favour if they start trying to hit the more populous parts of SE Asia, and neither is logistics.

How much that will translate into European colonial exploration of the Pacific... I'm not sure, actually. They did some exploration of the Pacific Islands in OTL by this period (especially the Spanish and Dutch), but mostly concluded there was nothing much to interest them there. Would this be enough to change things, or would it just mean that Europeans aimed more at New Zealand itself, believing it to be the source of the Pakanga raids?

On another north, with the Nuttana expanding their trade networks under the Dutch and English noses. It would be interesting to see them insert themselves into poltics of SE Asia especially the Malay Sultantes, and thus the history *Indonesia, *Malaysia, and *Singapore.

Well, the Dutch and English have a much higher population base to work from, but the Nuttana are a hell of a lot closer to SE Asia. Things could go in curious ways.

I suppose that this settlement may happen as early as during the Spanish rule over the nearby white-dominated areas. That would be even more fun.

Potentially, there could be Maori in Patagonia before 1700. Not saying it's likely, just that by that time, they will have the shipbuilding and navigational tech to reach there, and be at least vaguely aware that Patagonia exists.

I think Jared's established there will be no one religion among the Maori. Some will be Christian, some Plirite, and others will follow the traditional religion for some time.

For the time being, yes, the Maori will be religously divided. Aotearoa is going through its own fun [1] little series of intertribal wars. Much of that warfare is over the usual reasons of greed, traditional hatred, and land-hungry kings, but there's a significant religious element too. Some Maori kings have converted to Plirism, some hold to their traditional religion, and the French are also involved in Aotearoa, so there may possibly be a Christian (Catholic) presence too.

And on a related note to that, the French involvement in Aotearoa has me wondering about broader trade routes along the southern Pacific. If bringing goods from Aotearoa to Europe, that sailing route may actually be faster than going back via the Indian Ocean. If ships are capable of handling the Roaring Forties, it's quite fast to get to Chile. (Ships were known to get from Tasmania to Chile in 43 days, and NZ is a bit closer). Getting around the Straits of Magellan or Cape Horn is much less fun [2], but still, would this lead to a viable trade route that way?

[1] i.e. not fun

[2] i.e. also not fun

If they got along well with the Mapuche, the idea of the Mapuche being converted to the Sevenfold Path is amusing. You'd end up with Plirite states on every continent but Europe.

If I could find a plausible way to get a Plirite state in Europe, I'd do that too, but I doubt it. A few Christians may individually convert to Plirism, but whole states I'm not seeing.
 
There's somewhere between 3-4 million Maori living in New Zealand ITTL pre-European contact.
That's huge! In OTL, there probably were something like 200,000 Maori in late 18th century New Zealand, suffering from a lack of suitable crops (which they fortunately obtained ITTL).

I take it that at the time of the Aururian contact of 1310, there were even less than 200,000 Maori, maybe even as few as 100,000 of them. This means that between 1310 and 1630s, the Maori population ITTL could have grown from 100,000 to 4 million - by a factor of 40! - and at the minimum, it grew from 200,000 to 3 million, that is, by a factor of 15, which would still be very, very fast. Thus, Aotearoa of the 14th to 16th centuries had its population doubling every century (or even every 70 years) ITTL.

I recall you talking about momentous changes that the Aururian crops have brought to this alt-New Zealand, but I have only now realized just how momentous they must have been. The archipelago went through an endless population explosion, almost as extreme as the one that the Third World experienced in the last century OTL, only that the Maori explosion lasted for three centuries, not one.
 

Nilesap

Banned
I can't help but think that Europe on the whole may not have as hard a grip on the world ITTL as they did in OTL. I'd not be surprised if another civilization managed to do something similar to what Japan did, or even managed to straight up keep up with Europe.

For instance, with China now being split in two may well lead to greater incentive to adapt technologies western traders may have, and they like japan may well be able to manufacture said weapons in country due to having much of the metallurgy and technical industry by the 1600's. China/Cathay may not fall behind as much in this world as the OTL qing china did.
 
I recall you talking about momentous changes that the Aururian crops have brought to this alt-New Zealand, but I have only now realized just how momentous they must have been. The archipelago went through an endless population explosion, almost as extreme as the one that the Third World experienced in the last century OTL, only that the Maori explosion lasted for three centuries, not one.

I'd actually worked on the assumption that the Maori population of 1310 was ~10,000. No source I can find gives a reliable estimate. But given that the Maori had only settled NZ ~40 years before - and it's a very long way to New Zealand from the Cook Islands or Tahiti or wherever exactly the Maori came from - 10,000 is probably a reasonable number. If it turns out that the actual number was less than 10,000, well, it's still plausible that a few more settlers came to NZ from the Cook Islands/Tahiti in the early days when they heard about how good the island was. (There was still inter-island navigation during this time).

The question is how much can 10,000 people turn into, given virgin land, excellent crops, and a mostly benign disease environment. The answer is, in fact, a hell of a lot. For instance, in the 1660s, Quebec had a effective founding population of about 5000 people. (There were more people than that, but a limited number of women, mostly sent out as part of a royal campaign which lasted a decade or so.) That founding population of ~5000 people now have something like 5-8 million descendants, about 350 years later. And the ~30,000 English/British colonists who colonised New England between 1620-1640 or so now have tens of millions of descendants.

So having a Maori founding population of 10,000 turn into 3+ million is entirely possible. A population growth rate of 1.85% a year - much less than the 3% than Quebec had - would turn that 10,000 people into 3.2 million by 1625, on the eve of European contact. A population growth rate of 2% a year - which is in fact quite possible - would turn it into over 5 million.

In practice, of course, once the population hits a certain density, land shortages, warfare, and carrying capacity will mean that this population growth slows down dramatically. But since the carrying capacity of NZ with Aururian crops is well over 4 million, that limit hasn't quite been reached yet.

I can't help but think that Europe on the whole may not have as hard a grip on the world ITTL as they did in OTL. I'd not be surprised if another civilization managed to do something similar to what Japan did, or even managed to straight up keep up with Europe.

There may well be more of that, although there's so many contingent factors that it's hard to be sure. The Ottomans are one distinct possibility, if they can turn the Aururian crops into a population boom and hold onto their core territories with such increased population. As you mention, China/Cathay is another. There may well be more such alternatives.

OTL, there was the attempt at Welsh Patagonia, and Scottish Darien (Panama)

ITTL, they could swap around and have the Scots try to settle Patagonia?

A madcap Patagonia Scheme to replace the Darien Scheme? The Darien Scheme had a lot of lowlanders settling too, but maybe a variant scheme could be found to send the highlanders off instead.
 
There may well be more of that, although there's so many contingent factors that it's hard to be sure. The Ottomans are one distinct possibility, if they can turn the Aururian crops into a population boom and hold onto their core territories with such increased population. As you mention, China/Cathay is another. There may well be more such alternatives.

The Mughal Empire in India is another possibility, as are the Safavids in Persia. The former only began to decline OTL when Aurangzeb ran it into the ground with his wars and religious fanaticism. The Islamic world in general has alot of potential in this time period.
 
The Mughal Empire in India is another possibility, as are the Safavids in Persia. The former only began to decline OTL when Aurangzeb ran it into the ground with his wars and religious fanaticism. The Islamic world in general has alot of potential in this time period.

For the Mughals, the rot began well before Aurangzeb. He gets the blame because his actions were more clearly visible, but the structural problems were there earlier. At least since Shah Jahan's reign (I forget if it was true earlier too) they could never get their finances under control: no matter how much income they raised, their expenses kept going up even further.

The Mughal succession system was, to put it mildly, a joke. It could hardly have been better designed to provoke a civil war with every change of ruler. Of the six Great Mughals:

- Babur (the founder) came from a region where fighting between relatives was commonplace
- Humayan's three brothers all revolted against him at various times, which was part of the reason he lost the throne for a while
- Akbar was largely spared early because he had no brothers (though he had some lesser problems with other relatives)
- Jahangir already tried to revolt against his father before Akbar died, blinded his eldest son because he revolted against him, and even his eventual successor (Shah Jahan) revolted against him before Jahangir's death
- Shah Jahan revolted against his father, and had revolts from several of his own sons, and was eventually deposed by Aurangzeb
- Aurangzeb began his reign by fighting his brothers and imprisoning his father, had sons revolt against him during his rule, and had his remaining sons fight a succession war after his death

This doesn't make it impossible for the Mughals to overcome some of these problems, but they need to have some serious reform and a series of gifted emperors to do so.

The Safavids may be more of a possibility; I'd need to look more into how Persia may develop ITTL.
 
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For the Mughals, the rot began well before Aurangzeb. He gets the blame because his actions were more clearly visible, but the structural problems were there earlier. At least since Shah Jahan's reign (I forget if it was true earlier too) they could never get their finances under control: no matter how much income they raised, their finances kept going up even further.

The Mughal succession system was, to put it mildly, a joke. It could hardly have been better designed to provoke a civil war with every change of ruler. Of the six Great Mughals:

- Babur (the founder) came from a region where fighting between relatives was commonplace
- Humayan's three brothers all revolted against him at various times, which was part of the reason he lost the throne for a while
- Akbar was largely spared early because he had no brothers (though he had some lesser problems with other relatives)
- Jahangir already tried to revolt against his father before Akbar died, blinded his eldest son because he revolted against him, and even his eventual successor (Shah Jahan) revolted against him before Jahangir's death
- Shah Jahan revolted against his father, and had revolts from several of his own sons, and was eventually deposed by Aurangzeb
- Aurangzeb began his reign by fighting his brothers and imprisoning his father, had sons revolt against him during his rule, and had his remaining sons fight a succession war after his death

This doesn't make it impossible for the Mughals to overcome some of these problems, but they need to have some serious reform and a series of gifted emperors to do so.

The Safavids may be more of a possibility; I'd need to look more into how Persia may develop ITTL.

I should not claim expertise, but I gather that the Mughal succession system, or lack thereof, was built on Safavid, and generally Islamo-Turkic-Persianate, models, which tended to be a mess. In part it was inbuilt: widespread polygamy+general lack of primogeniture of any sort+general tendential Islamic dislike for hereditary legitimacy to rule+other assorted factors=potential trouble.
The usual ways out were a firm familiar cohesion, a strong tradition of the incumbent choosing his succesor and having that recognized, a combination of both, or a chain of charismatic leadership (often but not always hereditary). The Mughals and the Safavids were worse at all these than, say, the Ottomans, who had inherited a stronger bureaucratic structure (Mamluk and, especially, Byzantine; but to be fair, the Ottomans were signifcantly better at dynastic stability than the Byzantines themselves). The Mamluk system was particularly fascinating, and seems to have worked better than most (but they had far less Persianate influence, though I am not sure if it matters).
 
Lands of Red and Gold #90: A Matter of Institutions
Lands of Red and Gold #90: A Matter of Institutions

“Tjibarri lie in only two ways: everything they say, and everything they do.”
- Gutjanal saying

* * *

The arrival of the Raw Men, and the wondrous and advanced goods they brought, gave a clear lesson to all Aururians who encountered them. Here, it was plain, were a foreign people whose marvellous goods would be wondrous to acquire. Raw Men weapons were desirable almost everywhere, and their luxury goods were also keenly sought-after in most regions.

Some Aururians took this realisation further: obtaining Raw Men goods was useful, but obtaining the knowledge to produce those goods themselves would be even more beneficial.

Some Aururian societies which came to this conclusion sought to apply it only in relatively limited ways. That is, they sought to gain knowledge of particular technologies, most notably weapons and domesticated animals. Even where they tried to acquire broader realms of knowledge, they were still quite focused in their aims. For example, the Atjuntja ironsmiths were successful (by 1645) in persuading the Dutch to provide some metallurgists to teach about blast furnaces and related ironworking technology.

A few Aururian societies adopted a broader approach. They sought to acquire not just particular Raw Men goods and technologies, but a wider spectrum of knowledge and European institutions. For different reasons, the Five Rivers states (particularly Tjibarr) and the Nuttana were both well-placed to adopt their own forms of European institutions and technologies. Both these societies were inspired in part by the recognition that in specific areas, they had knowledge better than the Raw Men.

In the Five Rivers, the greatest recognition came from their physicians. Five Rivers physicians had an ancient tradition of medical diagnosis and a system of peer review which encouraged them to pass judgement on their fellows’ practices. This tradition had its own misconceptions, but it was free of some mistaken beliefs found in European medical practices. Five Rivers physicians quickly concluded that in several respects Raw Men medicine was inferior to their own practices. In particular, they viewed European doctors has having a disturbing fixation with bleeding men who were already ill or wounded. Attempts to use this practice on Tjibarri patients led to it being thoroughly condemned by the reviewing physicians. This realisation in turn led to Five Rivers physicians making a critical examination of new European knowledge: they did not simply adopt European practices or technologies directly, but they reviewed what was available and decided what they wanted.

For the Nangu and their Nuttana successors, a similar realisation came from navigational technology. The Nangu had adopted Polynesian navigational techniques via the Maori, and added some shipbuilding refinements of their own. Thus, they had access to an independent navigational tradition to Europeans. Nangu sailors who met the Raw Men quickly realised that despite Europeans’ ability to sail across vast distances, in some respects their technology was notably inferior. This was manifested in some simple ways such as the Nangu technique (borrowed directly from the Maori) of reading the waves to identify when a shore was near and the best places to change direction while sailing. Visiting Europeans could not match this. But the most notable examples were when visiting Dutch sailors were trapped on the Island because they could not reliably sail against the prevailing wind. This meant that the Dutch vessels could not make a timely return west back to the Atjuntja realm, while Nangu ships that used Polynesian-inspired tacking technology could undertake the westward voyage even when the winds were not favourable.

In these circumstances, people from both Five Rivers and Nuttana societies drew a clear conclusion: the gap between them and the Raw Men was vast, but not impossible to bridge. They concluded that just as they had things which they could teach the Raw Men, so they in turn were capable of following necessary lessons to acquire that knowledge the Raw Men possessed. And in their own ways, both of them set about gaining this knowledge.

* * *

The Five Rivers societies were the oldest agricultural societies on the continent. This meant in turn that they had a long history of technological development and expanding their own knowledge base, independent of Old World models. As part of this, they had their own forms of educational institutions for preserving and extending knowledge. They did not have libraries or universities on the same scale or structure as in Europe. However, they had predecessor social institutions of study such as temples and guild schools, and were at a socio-political level where they could quickly grasp the benefit of developing these further.

Tjibarr became the first Five Rivers state to put this into practice. This process began with convocations of physicians which gathered to treat the outbreak of Old World diseases. The first great convocation was conducted at Tapiwal [Robinvale] in 1646, to study the outbreak of epidemic typhus in the Five Rivers. This convocation endured for so long and produced so much argument that one of the attending physicians nicknamed it “the place of great disputation” – or, in the Gunnagal language, Tjagarr Panipat [see post #75].

The appellation endured. The same name was applied to future gatherings of physicians over the next two decades, as they met to study and discuss treatments of other diseases both foreign and domestic. These assemblages included the traditional Five Rivers’ medical practice of having five-man panels pass judgement on another physician’s treatment of the diseases. They were also supplemented by the collection of medical treatises, both locally written and those imported from Europe, whether available in translation or only in European languages. The physicians studied these texts as part of their discussions.

The convocations were held at several locations over the next two decades, and sometimes in the other Five Rivers states of Gutjanal and Yigutji. In 1666, the physicians’ conclaves received a permanent residence in Tapiwal. This happened when a wealthy Tjibarri land controller [noble] named Lopitja the White donated his family’s Tapiwal home to serve as a library and meeting hall for physicians. He supported this new institution by providing copies of a wide range of European texts that his family had acquired over the previous few decades. Lopitja’s donation turned the Tjagarr Panipat into a permanent gathering that became Aururia’s first institution of higher learning.

The Tjagarr Panipat thus began life as an institution for the study of medicine, among already accredited physicians. Due to its large collection of reference materials, it quickly evolved into an institution for teaching new physicians. At first, this followed the traditional physicians’ model: a student began as an “apprentice” with one physician, progressed to an “initiate” with another physician, and would be declared “accredited” when three other physicians deemed the initiate worthy to progress to a full physician.

However, in time the physicians expanded their knowledge of similar institutions, and they also now found themselves in a situation where each student was in proximity to many experienced physicians. So this evolved into a system where several accredited physicians taught groups of students about different aspects of medicine, generally in those areas where each physician was recognised as being particularly skilled.

In 1682, senior Tjibarri physicians reached an agreement that they would only allow a student to progress through each grade of membership if they had studied at the Tjagarr Panipat. Physicians in Gutjanal and Yigutji were not so strict in their standards, but studying at the Tjagarr Panipat became an excellent way to build prestige for student physicians from anywhere in the Five Rivers. In 1689, this progression of grades (apprentice, initiate, accredited) became standardised in an official roll maintained at the Tjagarr Panipat. Admission onto the different stages of this roll became the Tjibarri equivalent of university degrees.

The Panipat – or so its name was usually shortened – was created to study medicine. However, the European texts provided by Lopitja and other factional sponsors covered a wide variety of subjects. This meant that the great library of the Panipat attracted would-be students in other fields. Those non-medical students came to learn about other European technologies. In time, they also came to discuss these new technologies with other like-minded students who also gathered at the Panipat. The factional sponsors encouraged this form of attendance, since they were also interested in some of these other fields of knowledge.

By a combination of gifts and pressure, the Panipat’s governing council was persuaded to recognise two other disciplines as worthy of study at the institution. The first was a discipline which they called Gambirra. This word can be loosely translated as “engineering”, but which in the Gunnagal language also refers to ironworking, silver and gold smithing, and other metal working. At the Panipat, the study of Gambirra included all aspects of incorporating Raw Men metallurgy and engineering.

The second discipline was Maranoa; a word which can be approximately translated as “chemistry”, but again, the Gunnagal term is broader. Maranoa includes the study of any material collected from plants and animals, which includes the processes of obtaining that material, and thus had some overlap with biology.

This new discipline begun in part by the physicians themselves, since they had begun trying to understand the foreign products referred to in Raw Men medical texts. Under factional encouragement, study of Maranoa expanded to include applications of indigenous products such as incense, dyes, resins and perfumes. It also included wider use of distillation, a technology which in the pre-Houtmanian era had been kept a guild secret amongst physicians and perfume makers. This secret was broken thanks to European knowledge of distillation. So further study included some of the more practical applications of distillation, most notably in methods for maintaining positive spirits among both students and teachers.

Maranoa incorporated study of the most highly desired of all European commodities: gunpowder. However, this was largely a source of frustration to Tjibarri chemists. They had sufficient access to Raw Men texts to know the approximate proportions for gunpowder, but actually producing workable quantities was another matter entirely.

A couple of chemists succeeded in making small quantities of gunpowder-like substances. However, they had severe problems with both purity and scale of production. Producing charcoal was straightforward to a society which had been practicing coppicing for millennia, but obtaining sulphur and saltpetre was much more difficult. Meaningful quantities of sulphur were difficult to obtain. With saltpetre there were difficulties both in obtaining the product and in ensuring purity of what they found. So for a long time, Tjibarri chemists were unable to produce gunpowder except as a curiosity.

From its inception, the Tjagarr Panipat applied strict admission standards for both students and teachers. Five Rivers physicians had long followed rigid methods regarding those whom they would accept as apprentices, largely because their own professional reputations could be affected by those whom they chose as students. As the Panipat evolved into the core institute for Tjibarri medicine, admission became a general process rather than relying on the discretion of individual physicians. The governing council of the Panipat set high merit standards for admission to the roll; this involved detailed oral questioning, and often practical demonstrations of skill.

When the Panipat expanded to include scholars of other disciplines, similar strict benchmarks were established for admission in any capacity. Panipat scholars prided themselves on resisting all outside pressure about who was suitable to study at their institution. Occasional exceptions were known for less capable students who were favoured by a particularly influential factional sponsor – usually involving some expansion of facilities or resources. But on the whole, the institution maintained its extremely high admission standards.

* * *

Where Five Rivers societies developed strong educational institutions, the Nangu and their Nuttana successors adopted strong commercial institutions. The Nangu had been strongly commerce-focused long before contact with the Raw Men; they were the premier traders of pre-Houtmanian Aururia. When European contact made them aware of the broader world, the Nangu were keen to expand their trade networks wherever they saw the chance for profit. Indeed, when they encountered European and Asian goods which were demonstrably superior to local commodities, the Nangu were as keen to go visiting to trade for them as Europeans had been in earlier centuries when learning to navigate to Asia in pursuit of spices.

The Nangu became explorers and traders on a wider scale. They took advantage of European charts or geographical knowledge when it was available, or simply ventured into the unknown when they had no other alternatives. The earliest major examples were the three great voyages of Werringi the Bold (later known as Kumgatu): the first circumnavigation of Aururia (1630-31), the first Aururian voyage to Java (1635-6), and the first Aururian voyage to the Philippines and Okinawa (1643).

As part of his voyages, Werringi pioneered two things which would form much of his legacy. Inspired in part by knowledge of the Dutch East India Company, Werringi helped to negotiate the formation of a great Nangu trading association – nuttana, in their language – for cooperative ventures outside of Aururia. He also established a resupply station at Wujal [Cooktown, Queensland] that would grow into the first of the Nuttana city-states.

The Nangu homeland on the Island, and in turn their entire commercial empire, relied on imported food to prosper. With the plagues and major warfare in the Seven Sisters [Eyre Peninsula], most Nangu had to leave the Island or starve. The largest group of those exiles ended up in the thriving Nuttana lands. From there, they set about expanding on Werringi’s discoveries and building a new commercial empire.

Improvements in Nangu shipbuilding had begun even before the Nuttana was founded. Indeed, part of the motivation for Werringi’s second exploration voyage had been to take advantage of the capabilities of the new ships designed after seeing European examples. Wherever they could, the Nuttana continued to take advantage of opportunities to sail and trade further. They continued to improve their indigenous ship-building tradition, developing larger ships and better navigation. For the most part, they progressed by their own efforts. The only major European contributions were from some early acquisition of charts and tales, the introduction of the compass, and the spread of paper that permitted more convenient chart-making and other navigational record-keeping.

The development of better ships allowed much greater Nuttana exploration. The main part of this exploration was local. The Nuttana began a vigorous exploration and (where possible) establishment of trade contact with coastal societies in northern Aururia, New Guinea and elsewhere in Melanesia, Aotearoa, and nearby parts of Polynesia such as Tonga and Samoa.

Some of this exploration and trade spread much further. Since Werringi’s third voyage, the Nuttana were one of the few societies permitted to trade with Japan, via the subject kingdom of the Ryukyus. This trade was strictly limited and mostly on Japanese terms; the Nuttana bought mainly muskets and sold mainly jeeree [Aururian lemon tea], which had become a desired commodity in the upper echelons of Japanese society. In the 1660s, the beginning of the Anglo-Dutch Wars meant that those countries’ trading companies were much less capable of preventing trade competition from other powers, and the Nuttana took advantage of this to expand their exploration and trading contacts westward into India.

The greatest testament of Nuttana exploration during this period came from the accomplishments of Korowal the Navigator. In 1683, he led the first Nuttana expedition to circumnavigate the southern hemisphere. He led his ships on the circumpolar route that followed the strong winds of the Roaring Forties, visiting all three of the great capes along the way (Cape Horn, the Cape of Good Hope, and Cape Leeuwin) before returning home to Wujal.

The Old World plagues affected the Nuttana, naturally, but they maintained their population much better than any other Aururian society. Partly this was because their geographic isolation allowed them to make much more effective use of quarantine. Partly this was because many Nuttana had caught the plagues while on trading voyages to the Old World, and so were able to care for the sick during the epidemics. Mostly, though, it was because the Nuttana had built up systems of recruiting labour, voluntary and otherwise, that allowed them to maintain an effective labour force despite the plagues.

Between the 1640s and the 1680s, the Nuttana established a wide-scale commercial empire (and, partly, colonial empire) across much of the Western Pacific. The biggest component of the trading network was in slaves/indentured labourers, and the commodities produced by them. For the Nangu descendants who formed the core of the Nuttana were mostly non-agricultural specialists: shipbuilders, craftsmen, sailors, and traders. The early Nuttana had obtained food by recruiting Kiyungu from the south on five-year terms to work as farmers inland from Wujal. Many of those Kiyungu remained as free farmers afterwards, and in their heritage the Nuttana were almost as much Kiyungu as they were Nangu.

With the population collapse of the plagues, and with desired expansion into new products, the supply of Kiyungu labourers was not sufficient for Nuttana demand. So they turned to new sources for recruiting indentured labourers and, eventually, slaves. Their preferred early recruits were Papuans, who were familiar with growing sugar, and who were mostly immune to Old World diseases. These were supplemented by peoples from Melanesia and Polynesia, particularly the Solomon Islands. Sometimes these labourers were willingly recruited for a term of years, but sometimes they were made slaves by their own people; chiefs were keen to obtain Nuttana goods, but often had few commodities other than people to offer in exchange.

The largest source of slaves, though, came from Aotearoa. The large population and endemic warfare of the Land of the Long White Cloud meant that there was a large supply of slaves available, to those who had commodities which the Maori wanted in exchange. The Nuttana grew sugar in abundance, and when they came to Aotearoa, they often sold the sugar in exchange for slaves who would in turn produce more.

In keeping with Maori practice, most of these slaves were male; female slaves were mostly kept in the home kingdom. The Nuttana did not permit slaves to marry except to other slaves, believing that a marriage between slave and free would bring disharmony. So while Maori made up a large percentage of the Nuttana population in any given year, few of those enslaved Maori would leave descendants.

In their homeland in north-eastern Aururia, the Nuttana used slaves to grow large amounts of sugar, and smaller quantities of jeeree and spices. The sugar was traded across Aotearoa and southern and eastern Aururia. The jeeree was traded into the East Indies, the Ryukyus, and sometimes further afield into India and China; the spices were traded across all of those regions as well as into Melanesia. They sold some iron tools into Papua, and to a lesser degree elsewhere in Melanesia and Polynesia. From Papua they bought some sugar as well, together with bird of paradise feathers and other minor commodities, occasionally food such as sago, but often they bought people. From the rest of Melanesia, they traded for coconuts which became a delicacy in the Nuttana-city states, but the main commodity they purchased was people. The Nuttana sold sugar and muskets further south into Aururia, with the main products they received in exchange being larger supplies of spices and jeeree which they would on-sell into Asia, and sometimes gold when they went far enough south to the Yadji realm and the Cider Isle (Tasmania). In Aotearoa they sold sugar and muskets, and bought rope and textiles of New Zealand flax, as well as a large supply of slaves. From India they brought cotton textiles, gunpowder, and some manufactured goods; from China they bought silk and other luxury goods such as porcelain.

The expansion of the Nuttana trading network brought with it an expansion in influence and informal colonialism. Their Nangu predecessors had developed colonial outposts and in some cases economic hegemony over much of southern Aururia; the Nuttana did the same across much of their new trading network. The Nuttana did not claim formal control over other territories, partly because they were wary of angering the Raw Men too much, and partly in keeping with the ancient Nangu tradition of informal influence. But they established effective client states in some of the northerly Kiyungu city-states such as Quamba [Mackay], and the kingdom of Ngutti [Yamba] that had been carved out of Daluming during the civil war there, and in parts of Melanesia. In Aotearoa, they did not establish client states in the same way, but wielded some influence over the Plirite kingdoms which fought against their traditionalist or French-backed rivals.

The expansion of their trade network, and particularly trade with Europeans and Japan, led the Nuttana to develop new commercial institutions. An early form of this was their development of the Nuttana trading association itself, which was based on their then-limited Nangu understanding of joint-stock European trading companies. With their increasing commercial links and far-flung trade outposts, the Nuttana were quick to take up or adopt other foreign institutions to suit their needs.

The Nuttana were among the first Aururian societies to adopt coinage. They gained knowledge of the principles from European inspiration, and used bullion obtained from their own trade with the Cider Isle and the Yadji. Coinage greatly facilitated trade within the internal Nuttana economy.

Record-keeping had always been an essential part of Nangu commerce, but their methods became much more sophisticated. In large part this was due to knowledge of paper-making, which allowed them to keep much more extensive records. Over time, and thanks to numerous enquiries by inquisitive Nangu, the Nuttana learned about Arabic numerals and European accounting systems, including double-entry bookkeeping. This permitted much more accurate commercial records, and so this, too, facilitated the expansion of Nuttana trade.

In some instances, the Nuttana did not adopt European institutions even when they became familiar with them. For instance, at first the Nuttana had a limited understanding of joint-stock companies, and thus formed their own trading association. However, when they learned more about the European form, they still did not adopt it. The Nuttana had developed their own system of profit-sharing from their trading voyages, where a set percentage of a vessel’s profits went to its crew, and another set percentage to the owning bloodline, while the rest was divided amongst the other five Nuttana bloodlines in specified proportions. As their economy expanded, the Nuttana developed their own system of shared equity and transfer of trading rights or profits between individuals and bloodlines, but they did not adopt any direct equivalent to joint stock companies.

The expansion of equity and profit-sharing systems in turn became part of the broader Nuttana legal revolution. In this case, they were only indirectly inspired by European contact, and more precisely by trading disputes. Other inspiration came from managing the different customs and practices of the other peoples (especially Kiyungu) who were being incorporated into Nuttana society.

Their Nangu predecessors had relied mainly on sworn agreements, with disputes being either mediated by honoured priests or referred to their Council. Such practices became impractical with so many different peoples and customers. Being Plirite they had a keen interest in orderly conduct and resolution of disputes, and so a new field emerging in codifying contracts and other forms of law. Plirite priests developed broader roles as jurists and were heavily involved in developing the new legal codes, including those regarding slavery. The Nuttana legal system had a heavy emphasis on contract law, with harsh penalties for breach of faith or failure to deliver on contract.

Some of the new institutions which the Nuttana developed were industrial, not commercial. From the Javanese and then the Indians, they acquired technology for processing sugar cane: mills for grinding and crushing the sugar cane, then boiling the juice to produce the gravelly sugar that was the foundation of Nuttana wealth. From their contact with China and the tea produced there, the Nuttana were inspired to try new forms of processing jeeree. They developed new flavours by allowing the leaves to fully ferment in a similar manner to the production of Chinese black tea. The new forms of jeeree had both stronger flavours and preserved better than traditional jeeree, which added to the export potential of the crop.

The Nuttana’s new institutions brought them increasing wealth, despite the ongoing problems of Old World plagues. Yet these institutions did not eliminate the threat from foreign powers; in some ways, this made them a more attractive target.

* * *

“Trade involves a constant struggle in peace and wars between the countries of Europe as to who carries off the greatest amount. The Dutch, the English and the French are the main combatants in this struggle.”
- Jean-Baptiste Colbert, memoir to King Louis XIII of France, 1662

* * *

Thoughts?
 
The final quote from Colbert reminds me, in a roundabout way: how are Vauban and his rival van Coehoorn doing in this timeline? Do the two of them still rise to prominence in the field of military engineering?

Anyway, interesting update. We've seen a bit of the interaction between the Nuttana and the Japanese, but what do the Chinese and Indians think of their new trading partners?
 
I'm seeing why TTL refers to the region as the "third world." Between the merchant adventures of the Nuttana and the eventual raiding of the Maori, Aururia, Aotearoa, Papua, and "Near Oceania" are all going to be drawn more tightly together as time passes. Possibly even OTL's Eastern Indonesia (the parts which don't Christianize or Islamicize) and much further points in Oceania.

I'm getting foreshadowing of a 17th century Tjibarri doctor going on a Nuttana voyage to the Galapagos and developing the theory of evolution. :D

Also, It's possibly been covered before, but since the Nuttana are in contact with India and China now, I do wonder what their feeling regarding Dharmic religions will be? Surely that they are somewhat misguided fools, but they will be interacting with religious traditions with which they have far more in common with than Christianity, which could lead to interesting results.

Regardless, as to my earlier point about potential Maori settlement in Patagonia, I was not suggesting the most likely outcome would be a Maori state. Rather that I could easily see how Maori settlement would be attractive for many Iwi, for various reasons. I could see it as an escape valve, or even an exile. One which certainly would require butterfly wings flapping in a certain manner, however.
 
The final quote from Colbert reminds me, in a roundabout way: how are Vauban and his rival van Coehoorn doing in this timeline? Do the two of them still rise to prominence in the field of military engineering?

Colbert was young enough to be born before the plagues hit, and so his birth was not butterflied away. He rose to prominence a few years earlier than OTL, mostly because some of his barriers (ie rivals) were removed by the plagues. So he's doing well encouraging French commercial growth even earlier than OTL. He's helped, of course, by the fact that France stayed out of the *Thirty Years' War, so it hasn't had the equivalent destructive warfare with Spain. Yet.

Vauban and van Coehoorn, however, were both born after the plagues hit Europe. It's by no means certain whether they exist at all.

In a more general way, I'm ambivalent about strict butterflying away of every single person born after a PoD - I think that for literary reasons, they are still useful to refer to, even if they're strictly analogues rather than the actual characters.

If they do exist, well, van Coehoorn will have his work cut out still with the Anglo-Dutch Wars, which are if anything worse in OTL. Especially if France joins in one or more of them on the English side. Vauban would still have the opportunity to rise to prominence during the (slightly later) ATL Fronde, but his real opportunities would come during the later warfare of the seventeenth century, where France butts heads with various neighbouring countries.

Anyway, interesting update. We've seen a bit of the interaction between the Nuttana and the Japanese, but what do the Chinese and Indians think of their new trading partners?

The Chinese think of them as another bunch of barbarians come to pay tribute to the Son of Heaven. Well, not really. To China, at this stage they're just another very minor trading power come with one or two goods of interest, but not really worth taking too much notice of yet. That may change as the Nuttana gradually ramp up their trade in spices and jeeree.

The Indians - or, rather, those states within India that are so far in contact with the Nuttana - are particularly fascinated by sweet peppers and all things associated with them.

In terms of religious conversations, well, that could probably be turned into its own interesting post or two, but I'd probably need to refamiliarise myself more with the particular subsets of Hinduism, Buddhism and Taoism which the Plirites would find themselves interacting with before I could attempt such a post. (Unless anyone has any more specific ideas. I'm open to suggestions, here or via PM).

I'm seeing why TTL refers to the region as the "third world." Between the merchant adventures of the Nuttana and the eventual raiding of the Maori, Aururia, Aotearoa, Papua, and "Near Oceania" are all going to be drawn more tightly together as time passes. Possibly even OTL's Eastern Indonesia (the parts which don't Christianize or Islamicize) and much further points in Oceania.

It's certainly possible that the "Third World" will include regions that are part of OTL eastern Indonesia, Melanesia, or even Polynesia. The notion of the Third World is partly biological - different animals and plants - and partly cultural. Much of OTL eastern Indonesia has the same biological elements, of course. If they are also linked culturally, then it would be a natural fit to treat them as part of the Third World.

Plus, of course, many of the areas which don't Christianise or Islamicise may Pliricise ITTL.

I'm getting foreshadowing of a 17th century Tjibarri doctor going on a Nuttana voyage to the Galapagos and developing the theory of evolution. :D

Well, that would certainly be entertaining. :D

Of course, a Tjibarri physician wouldn't even need to sail that far. Alfred Russel Wallace also recognised the principles of natural selection from his explorations of Borneo and other nearby locales. This is conveniently within the Nangu trading sphere of influence. :p

Also, It's possibly been covered before, but since the Nuttana are in contact with India and China now, I do wonder what their feeling regarding Dharmic religions will be? Surely that they are somewhat misguided fools, but they will be interacting with religious traditions with which they have far more in common with than Christianity, which could lead to interesting results.

The general Plirite attitude to other organised religions is that they are founded by other moral teachers who have recognised part of the truth, but that the Good Man was the first to recognise all of the truth. So they will view the Buddha, Lao-Tzu, and Confucious - and Jesus Christ, for that matter - as good moral teachers who had some insight into the harmony of the cosmos - but not complete insight.

Any parts of Buddhism, Taoism or Confucianism which Plirites recognise as valuable will be things they will be prepared to adopt. For instance, it's entirely possible that a translation of the Tao Te Ching may gain some currency in Plirite circles, though with all sorts of commentaries about how they did not get it quite right, and how to properly align things with the Seven-fold Path.

From the Indian and Chinese side... I'm not sure how they would look at Plirism, actually.

Regardless, as to my earlier point about potential Maori settlement in Patagonia, I was not suggesting the most likely outcome would be a Maori state. Rather that I could easily see how Maori settlement would be attractive for many Iwi, for various reasons. I could see it as an escape valve, or even an exile. One which certainly would require butterfly wings flapping in a certain manner, however.

It's certainly one possible target. Maori will end up in a lot of places, and Patagonia could - maybe - be one of them. Whether that means Maori state, Maori people as part of another state, or just isolated Maori chiefdoms under Mapuche - or Spanish - sovereignty is harder to judge.
 
It's certainly possible that the "Third World" will include regions that are part of OTL eastern Indonesia, Melanesia, or even Polynesia. The notion of the Third World is partly biological - different animals and plants - and partly cultural. Much of OTL eastern Indonesia has the same biological elements, of course. If they are also linked culturally, then it would be a natural fit to treat them as part of the Third World.



Of course, a Tjibarri physician wouldn't even need to sail that far. Alfred Russel Wallace also recognised the principles of natural selection from his explorations of Borneo and other nearby locales. This is conveniently within the Nangu trading sphere of influence. :p

Heh, If nothing else, they'll figure out the Wallace Line.
 
Well, that would certainly be entertaining. :D

Of course, a Tjibarri physician wouldn't even need to sail that far. Alfred Russel Wallace also recognised the principles of natural selection from his explorations of Borneo and other nearby locales. This is conveniently within the Nangu trading sphere of influence. :p

The delicious element of this is you can get a working theory of evolution well before OTL, but since it was developed by a non-Christian, non-Western source, the mass acceptance of it might be significantly delayed from OTL.

Is there anything in the Aururian cosmology which explicitly argues against "deep time" in the sense that is needed to understand modern geology and evolution?
 
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