“Peshawar Lancers” Disaster Happening in other ATLs

[Strategos' Risk]

I’m curious as to how other civilizations could survive the same meteor strike as in S.M. Stirling’s surprisingly not-bad “Peshawar Lancers”. For simplification, I’m going to have other great meteor strikes hit at the same places and intensity as Stirling’s original work, and at the same year (1868, I think… poor U.S., so soon after the ACW!).

So how could another ATL survive such an event in their version of 1868.

For example, I can see the Draka actually taking over the world (or most of it) if the same thing happened in the Draka TL’s 1868. Both Europe and the U.S. almost destroyed… poor world.

No idea how the Years of Rice and Salt world would take it. I think China will end up up really well in the end.

 

[Archangel Michael]

I just pulled out my copy of the Peshawar Lancers. The Fall happened exactly on October 3rd, 1876.

 

[Wendell]

I’m curious as to how other civilizations could survive the same meteor strike as in S.M. Stirling’s surprisingly not-bad “Peshawar Lancers”. For simplification, I’m going to have other great meteor strikes hit at the same places and intensity as Stirling’s original work, and at the same year (1868, I think… poor U.S., so soon after the ACW!).

So how could another ATL survive such an event in their version of 1868.

For example, I can see the Draka actually taking over the world (or most of it) if the same thing happened in the Draka TL’s 1868. Both Europe and the U.S. almost destroyed… poor world.

No idea how the Years of Rice and Salt world would take it. I think China will end up up really well in the end.

How about in a world where the CSA wins independence?

 

[Strategos' Risk]

The South's infrastructure wouldn't be as smashed, but it really depends. Either way, the U.S./C.S. is screwed, as in the book.

What about The Difference Engine? In that world, everything's better, technologically speaking.

 

[Romulus Augustulus]

I wonder what would happen if the disaster happened in the Southern Hemisphere, especially during the Draka ATL.

 

[Ivan Druzhkov]

I've thought about what would happen if the Peshawar Lancers comet hit in the Draka TL. I figured that, as Drakia would've been much more developed than OTL's Africa, Disraeli would've chosen them as the place to found the New British Empire over India (which is full of coolies, dontchyeknow). This would the interesting effect of having the British take full interest into what the Domination's been doing, and result in some forced reforms of Drakia. As time progresses, the expat Brits (and everyone else from Europe who comes calling) will look pretty Drakish, but Drakia would probably be a nicer place than the one we're familiar with.

Now, doing it in the Years of Rice and Salt...that's a different kettle of fish. By this period, everyone's industrializing quite nicely, and the comet hits mainly nail areas well removed from the centers of the great powers. The Muslims will take it on the chin in Firanja and western Yingzhou, though, and the Hodenosaunee will probably get wiped out (heck, no major American cilization survived in the Midwest in Stirling's book, so why should the natives fare any better?) The damage to the world will likely prevent anyone from starting a Long War for a century or so, but in that time China (by virtue of being far from the damaged areas, and having a population that can quickly replenish itself once the climate gets back to normal) will become the superpower everyone's worrying about. By the 1400's AH (1980's), we could see the Long War break out, save everyone is against China, not Dar al-Islam.

 

[Johnestauffer]

I don't see the US as being 'screwed'. The US had a fair amount of industry. It could probably adapt and relocate. There would be a lot of territory in the South west that could be developed. Also, the US might have a 'exodus' into Mexico and gain a new 'state'

 

[Ivan Druzhkov]

I don't see the US as being 'screwed'. The US had a fair amount of industry. It could probably adapt and relocate. There would be a lot of territory in the South west that could be developed. Also, the US might have a 'exodus' into Mexico and gain a new 'state'

That's been the general consensus of most anyone who's read The Peshawar Lancers. However, Stirling wiped out the US in his book, and that's the framework I'm stuck with, more or less.

 

[Bulldawg85]

Unless

That's been the general consensus of most anyone who's read The Peshawar Lancers. However, Stirling wiped out the US in his book, and that's the framework I'm stuck with, more or less.

Unless you just take an ATL off his ATL and say that the U.S. was not trashed, but survived.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

Well, Stirling was rather unclear in his novel- maybe the U.S. proper got smashed, since the entire East Coast political-industrial complex was destroyed. Who knows if successor gov'ts are hiding nervously among the cannibals on the Great Plains? Just don't imagine any of them pulling off a recovery, John Titor's future-style.

Again, I'm just having the asteroids hit the same places as in Stirling's book, with the same environmental effects. That doesn't necessarily mean the U.S. would be gone in the same way. If enough resources and people managed to create a new base in the Midwest- well, maybe a successor government would survive.

 

[Johnestauffer]

Part of the reason I think the US in some form might have survived is that the devastation was not instantaneous. There would have been time to start moving - a lot of people were already packing up to go west.

It would be interesting to see how the native Americans dealt with the situation. Since their life style was so tied to the envirnoment they would most likely be heavily impacted. It might have created more Indians Wars.

 

[Faeelin]

Again, I'm just having the asteroids hit the same places as in Stirling's book, with the same environmental effects. That doesn't necessarily mean the U.S. would be gone in the same way. If enough resources and people managed to create a new base in the Midwest- well, maybe a successor government would survive.

Well, then. Hmm.

He posits a massive nuclear winter, which would, one assume, close the passes through the Rockies.

Which means his argument that the US collapses because refugees pour across the Rockies is, well, idiotic.

So, the USA survives in California and Oregon.

Japan has already had the Mejj revolution, so I'm not sure WTF was up with that in Stirling's work.

Meanwhile, evidently a mad Satanist Russian is enough to take down the British Empire.

Hmm.

 

[Wendell]

WI the U.S. had evacuated to Liberia?

 

[Archangel Michael]

Japan has already had the Mejj revolution, so I'm not sure WTF was up with that in Stirling's work.

An Earth-shattering event, literally, that soon after the Meiji restoration could possibly reverse it over time.

 

[Ivan Druzhkov]

WI the U.S. had evacuated to Liberia?

On what? What shipping the United States had during that period (probably not enough to evacuate enough survivors and equipment to create an American successor state) would've been destroyed by the mega-tsunami created by the comet hit in the Atlantic.

On a general note, part of the problem with working with this type of scenario is that we simply don't know what the effects of a comet "shotgun" hit would be. The only thing we can look at is the fossil record, and that's sporadic as it is, even assuming you've proved conclusively that such a set of impacts happened in a given era. What's more, we'll probably never know what'll happen, so we're pretty much stuck with guesswork.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

The POD was in 1881 and wiped out the American East Coast, but effectively destroyed crops for a period of several more years. Also the Midwest WAS hit to some degree. Thus the American rail network combined with famine dooms the Midwest and guarantees enough refugees, combined with Jim Crow to reduce the South to a few scattered survivors.

Ironically, had the strike happened ten years earlier, the buffalo herds might have enabled the Amerindians to survive but in 1881 the best they can do is take the white settlers on the plains and mountains down with them. Unless the whites finish themselves off.

The two exceptions would be the American west coast and the Mormons in Utah. Some mention is made of 'Deseret' so we can presume that a badly damaged Mormon community survived. Given that even the Mormons don't have more than a year in reserve and given the vague separatist tendencies(when there was a US to separate from!) an independent enclave is plausible.

The only likely source of surviving US power would be on the west coast. Now, bear in mind the limited population back then, with less than 100K in Oregon, less than 50K in Nevada, and perhaps 350K in California.

For a POD have a cabinet member, or even the vice president somewhere in the Midwest or South. He assumes power and realizes some degree of the situation. He destroys key railroad bridges except for the transcontinental railroad(one?) to evacuate a few thousands of key people to California, with tens of thousands of general refugees following as best as they can.

In addition, he is able to salvage a few tiny scraps of industry. Bear in mind just how fast the US developed in the 19th Century. Give them the Whitney system for mass producing muskets and a few cloth looms, and the US may rise again in a few decades.

Additionally, the destruction of the rail network MIGHT permit a few scraps of the South to resist. Would the CSA rise again? A new African homeland? You be the judge. Either way, I doubt the survivors would feel much affinity to New D.C. in California.

Perhaps as many as 5000 soldiers make it, along with the surviving American merchant marine and fishing fleet, plus a handful of wooden warships. The fishing fleet in particular would be crucial.

The key point would be that California does not fall into warring city states but is a united force. Stirling credit's the Californians with six million people. Given leadership and organization during the crisis, we could double that and have a 'Pacific America' stretching from the 49th parallel to include Baja Mexico and inland to Arizona, Nevada, and Idaho.

Clearly no major power, and blocked by Deseret and quiet British ties to the resurging Sioux, Cheyenne, etc on one side, and the Japanese Empire on the other, but perhaps a source of great interest as the small power remembering the glory days struggles to survive.

 

[Archangel Michael]

The Fall hapened in 1876, not 1881.

 

[Strategos' Risk]

On second thought, the Difference Engine world would probably kick serious ass. In the book, 1855, the world is already very similar to the 2050s of the Peshawar Lancer world. By 1876, the savants might have developed better medicines and techniques for colonizing abroad, and maybe they did. Hell, the tech-savants might have already created a contingency plan for a future meteor strike by 1876- in the book, they already knew the dinosaurs were killed by a comet strike, and they plan for all kinds of things. Even if they don’t have an exact plan, they’re still smart enough to plan for floods and famines and that sort of thing.

Ironically, the Difference Engine world will end up a lot like Peshawar Lancers world, except better. England and super-Napoleonic France will settle in the southern colonies. However, I don’t think the British will become as Indianized as in Peshawar Lancers. The Italians, who are already unified, will also do pretty well. Japan might become an upstart as in PL, since they are already desperately catching up to Europe in 1855, though they might be more friends. The Americas might do horribly, since they’re broken up. California will be okay, though.

As for the extent of damage on North America in the original Peshawar Lancers- I’m reading the book again, and though I don’t like absolute canon reading to settle debates about fictional universes (it’s preposterous to break down sentences one by one to try to get at Stirling’s original meaning, especially for a pastiche as somewhat light-hearted as PL), the passage on page 8 basically says it all:

“Walls of water striking the Atlantic coast of Ireland and scouring far inland […] Reports of unbelievably worse damage on the American side of the Atlantic.”

Also, in the appendix says that the North Atlantic was worse battered than Europe, with tsunamis hitting the East Coast, some even reaching the Appalachians. Are those tidal waves miles high? In any case, the political, industrial, and commercial leadership of the East gets wiped out, and the Plains are also hit, too.

 

[luakel]

“Walls of water striking the Atlantic coast of Ireland and scouring far inland […] Reports of unbelievably worse damage on the American side of the Atlantic.”

Also, in the appendix says that the North Atlantic was worse battered than Europe, with tsunamis hitting the East Coast, some even reaching the Appalachians. Are those tidal waves miles high? In any case, the political, industrial, and commercial leadership of the East gets wiped out, and the Plains are also hit, too.

I'm guessing that the US is going to be almost completely annihilated, but the CSA might be able to survive.

 

[Romulus Augustulus]

It's implausible and it stretches the laws of physics.