Ĉio Sub la Steloj - A FHTL

Who should get eastern Siberia?

  • Russia

    Votes: 24 40.0%
  • Japan

    Votes: 5 8.3%
  • Canada

    Votes: 6 10.0%
  • Pacifica

    Votes: 4 6.7%
  • Other

    Votes: 1 1.7%
  • Independent

    Votes: 20 33.3%

  • Total voters
    60
OP
I've been working on this timeline for aaaaaages before I got the chance to log in and post. Well, here's the thread. This will be mostly maps and graphics.

World Map
WorldA
2050 new.png

QBAM
Does anyone know how to use Google Photos to put an image here?
Notes
Americas
1. The melting of ice caps and the opening of the Northwest Passage has allowed Inuvik to develop into a major port city.
2. Didn't join the USE, so were sold off to auction. Canada won.
3. Quebec seceded from Canada, though the north and west and Montreal stayed behind.
4. The political chaos of the 2020s made the West Coast secede as the Pacific Republic (a), leaving America cut off from the Pacific entirely. This prompted Alaska to join Canada (b), Hawaii to secede and restore the monarchy (c), and Japan to pick up the scraps (d).
5. Just to pour salt into America's wounds, Texas also made a run for it. New Mexico and Arizona might be next.
6. No longer communist. Ironically, it has received lots of migrants from Florida. Some people are even going so far as to propose annexation into the US.
7. On the plus side, Puerto Rico has reached statehood, becoming the 51st 43rd state.
8. If you think America had it bad, spare a thought for Brazil. First, the north seceded, forming Gr‌ão Para (a). Then the UN snatched Amazonas off them, due to their mistreatment of the Amazon rainforest (b). (You can see the Amazonian-Gr‌ão-Paran border from space.)
9. Then the south seceded (c).
10. Merged with Britain's Antarctic territories to form the Crown Dependency of New South Scotland.
Europe
1. First Scotland, then Northern Ireland, then the monarchy... by this point, the Federation of England, Wales and South Scotland (or just England) doesn't have much left to lose, though it *does* tightly hold on to the Falklands and Antarctica (known together as South Scotland).
2. The UN took a small chunk of Geneva for its headquarters.
3. "We'll make our own USE! With vodka and pierogi!"
4. The western third of Ukraine didn't want to join the USE, so it seceded as the short-lived Republic of Galicia. Which immediately joined Zapadoslavia.
5. Almost escalated into WW3. Fortunately, a few UN diplomats swept in and brought a peace deal: Russia gets Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk, but pulls out of Ukraine and Georgia, which join the EU.
6. Belarus was partitioned between the USE and Russia in 2039. The Russian half is now merely another part of Russia, with no autonomy or protection for the Belarusian
Asia
1. Bering Republic, founded by Canadian, Japanese and Pacifican filibusters in the Russian For East. Has one of the world's highest standards of living.
2. Japan snatched Sakhalin and the Kurils off from Russia in the 2030s. Nowadays it's majority Japanese.
3. Unified Korea, though with a few compromises. By 2050, Pyongyang and Kaesong are major metropolises rivalling those of the south.
4/5. China and Taiwan have finally acknowledged each other's sovereignty. Taiwan is a free democracy with high standards of living like Japan or Singapore, and China isn't far behind.
6. Independent Hong Kong and Macau. This one's inevitable.
7. Indonesia's new capital.
8. China let go of Uyghuristan and Tibet, although with territorial compromises.
9. Bangladesh was the worst off with sea level rise, so it did the sensible thing and joined India. Lots of refugees fled east, prompting Assam* to secede (b), sending them deeper into Burma, which then prompted Shan and Kachin to secede (c).
10. Pakistan was embroiled in a nasty civil war for most of the 2040s that ended with a shallow victory for the remnants of the Pakistani government. Which promptly joined India afterwards.
11. Balochistan was let free, but it probably shouldn't have been. It is currently ruled by a madman dictator with a program of Balochising its people, unfortunately for minorities such as the Brahui.
12. Russia lopped off a chunk of Kazakhstan as per Putin's policies.
13. Formed in 2025 at from 14 countries plus the unrecognized state of Palestine, the Baghdad Accord is a major alliance dominating the Middle East. Thinking of uniting.
14. They also built a giant solar panel farm in the Empty Quarter so big you can see it from space.
Africa
1. The Maghreb Union, formed in 2041 to copy the successes of the USE and East Africa, didn't go as swimmingly as planned. No less than four states - Mauritania, Tuareg (b), Fezzan (c) and Cyrenaica - seceded from the nascent state, some peacefully, some less so.
2. Nigeria's answer to the European Union: the African Union. A potential new superpower, stretching from Nouakchott to Sabha to Lubumbashi. Also thinking of uniting.
3. Sudan has had a rough ride into 2050 with the Darfur War, which shows no signs of slowing down.
4. The Hala'ib dispute solved: Sudan gets the triangle, but Egypt gets the city of Hala'ib (and Bir Tawil, but nobody cares about Bir Tawil). Neither side is completely happy.
5. Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia got inspired by the Baghdad Accord and had their own one - the 2033 Horn Conference.
6. United East Africa, courtesy of China and co.
Oceania
Nothing to see here!
Antarctica
Antarctica is only just starting to be settled. The largest settlements are on the Antarctic peninsula, McMurdo and the South Pole, but there are still only 10,000 people living below 60 south.
1. Canadian Antarctic Territories.
2. Chilean Antarctic Territories.
3. Argentine Antarctic Territories. With Britain gone, Argentina and Chile divided the Antarctic Peninsula amongst themselves.
5. European Antarctic Territories.
6. Japanese Antarctic Territories.
7. Australian Antarctic Territories. Quickly growing with Australians escaping the mainland's heatwaves, droughts, and fires.
8. New Zealand Antarctic Territories.
9. UN Mandate of the South Pole.
Any questions and constructive criticism would be welcome.
 
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United States of Europe Blank Election Map
use election 2034 districts.png

The United States of Europe's electoral system is a rather complicated mess (I spent months doing this). Each state receives a fixed number of seats in the USE Parliament decided by population (there are 763 seats in total; the most populous state, Germany, gets 138); each state then chooses districts to subdivide into; then, each district receives seats decided by population. There are a few main ways in which states divide their seats:
  • Entire state in one district: Popular among smaller states (Bulgaria, the Distrikto Ĉefurbo, Euskadia, Finland, Kosovo, Macedonia, Slovenia) States with one seat (Luxembourg, Malta, and Montenegro) have no choice.
  • One seat per district: Used in some small and medium-sized states (Armenia, Cyprus, Estonia, Scotland).
  • Existing secondary subdivisions: Popular among many larger states.
  • Some states (e.g. Georgia) do not fall into these three categories.
 
QBAM Map: Europe
2050europe.png

Here's Europe in 2050. Made a few fixes:
- Readded Ichkeria, Belarus, eastern Ukraine + Crimea, and Kaliningrad to Russia
- Added State of Bosnia (now with 20% less Croats!)
- Federalized what's left of the UK
- Scotland can now into subdivisions
- Also some changes in Asia, that aren't on this preview
 
The countries that are part of the USE seem weird. Poland (the most pro-European nation) would be more likely to join than the more Eurosceptic Scandinavian countries. And Dagestan and Chechnya being admitted in 2037 is definitely a stretch.
 
The countries that are part of the USE seem weird. Poland (the most pro-European nation) would be more likely to join than the more Eurosceptic Scandinavian countries. And Dagestan and Chechnya being admitted in 2037 is definitely a stretch.
I've now officially retconned Ichkeria's independence (as well as all the other consequences of the Second Crimean War).
 
Alliances and Governments
2050 alliances.png

US Teal: NAFTA. Surprisingly multipolar; California has an economy almost as big as America's, as does Canada.
Blue: EFTA - The USE's sphere of influence.
Taiwan Green: EECO - Basically China's and India's sphere of influence.
Indonesia purple: PRCU - Basically Super ASEAN. Designed to stop the EECO from expanding further.
Other green: Baghdad Accord. The Middle East's solution to every problem. Already have a common currency, and considering federation.
Nigeria brown: African Union. Nigeria's answer to the EU. A rising power; also thinking about federation.
2050 governments.png

- By 2050, democracy is the near-undisputed winner in the government type sphere, although monarchy still holds strong in a few countries. AI rule (the grey of China, Korea, and Japan), and technocracy are gaining a few supporters, however.
 
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Omake: The Dinner Party of Time (non-canon)
The year is 2050. The city of Brussels, once merely the capital of a small and overlooked European nation, is now the capital of the mighty United States of Europe, and a megalopolis of over five million inhabitants living in towering skyscrapers of blue, white and green as far as the eye can see in every direction, including up. In this very city, an ASB (Alien Space Bat) had decided to organise a dinner party in an average restaurant. The guests? Elon Musk; Vladimir Putin and Reggie Fils-Aimé (both from the year 2020); and Link (from The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild).
"How did you get here so quickly?" Reggie Fils-Aimé asked Elon Musk, completely unaware of what the world was like in 2050.
"Oh, I just took the hyperloop." Musk answered nonchalantly. "It's just two hours to get from LA to Brussels, though you do have to change trains twice." Musk turned away and grinned, trying to disguise his amusement.
"I think I've heard of it before when it was still an idea, but I had no clue how it would revolutionise transport" Reggie commented.
"Well, a few people go by plane or boat, but nowa-" Musk was interrupted by Vladimir Putin riding a bear onsite. "Wait, why are you riding a bear? This is downtown Brussels, not the Siberian taiga."
"Because I like riding bear." growled Putin with the Russian accent you'd expect from Putin.
Musk replied "Well, that's three of us. Which brings us to the question: where's Link?"
"Up." Putin gestured a few seconds before Link came paragliding down smack bang in the middle of the group. "I forgot to tell you two that Link is able to climb up and paraglide down from just about anything." Reggie laughed.
"Oh. So THAT explains why Link was so late. Probably climbed up the tallest skyscraper for the view." Musk assumed.
"Nah, probably looking for Korok seeds."
"What seeds?"
"I'll tell you later. I'd get Link to explain, except he can't really talk."
"Wait, he can't talk? Why isn't he using a thought-to-speech synthesiser?"
"Mostly because they don't exist where Link comes from. He does know sign language, though."
"I'm hungry now. We should eat." uttered Putin, pointing towards the door.
"Good point." Reggie responded. "We should go in now. My body is ready."
They entered the room. The room itself exhibited a rather modern aesthetic, with minimalistic décor and homogenous lighting on the floor and ceiling casting no shadows.
The four sat down to the table, with a robotic arm placing a basket of bread on its surface. "So this is what living in 2050 is like. Do robots do everything now?" Reggie questioned.
"Pretty much, Mr. Fils-Aimé." Musk answered, mispronouncing Fils-Aimé as /fɪls aɪmeɪ/.
"It's /fi:s əmeɪ/. Everyone makes that mistake, though."
"So anyway,-" Once again, Putin interrupted the conversation, in this case to ask "Is Russia bigger in 2050?"
"Hang on… Yup." Musk turned on his smart bracelet and showed Putin a map of Russia. "Some gains, but also some losses."
"Why Canada have part of Siberia?"
A few clicks later, Musk was on an article about the Canadian province of Kolyma. "Says here that Canada bought it from Russia because Russia was falling into debt. I really think we should start ordering, though."
Reggie touched the screen in the middle of the table to order, noticing how slippery the screen was. "That's because it's made of a special antibacterial material." answered Musk. A few clicks later, all of them had ordered their meals: borscht for Putin, khachapuri with pineapple for Musk, tortellini saltati for Reggie, and, okay, Link didn't order any; he brought his own food.
"Why have you brought your own food with you, Link?" Musk asked.
"How is that not normal for you?" Link communicated via sign language. "I need to eat while I'm out exploring, fighting, and saving Hyrule."
"Wait, how much have you got with y-oh my god, does this thing even have a bottom?" said Musk while taking a look into Link's backpack, discovering that it was full of hearty grilled fruit.
"Yeah, it can only hold up to sixty dishes." answered Reggie.
"Sixty? Mine struggles to hold lunch for four of us!"
In a matter of seconds after they ordered, a robot showed up with their meals. "Wow, that was quick!" exclaimed Reggie.
"Да, is fast" Putin stated.
The four began eating their meals. "Just why are you having pineapple on khachapuri? I'm used to pineapple on pizza, but pineapple on khachapuri…" Reggie queried.
"This is the United States of Europe, you know." Musk answered with stress on the "is".
"So?"
"You see, when the USE formed, cuisines from Portugal to Finland to Georgia got thrown into a metaphorical blender. Oh yeah, khachapuri is just as popular as pizza in the USE, if not more."
"When I realised that this was 2050, I was expecting robots and space travel, not pineapple on khachapuri."
"Well, we've got robots and space travel - how are you already finished, Link?"
Link hyahed in a tone signifying that he didn't know.
"Yeah, Link's like that. He demolishes meals in a matter of seconds." confirmed Reggie. "Well, he does eat to heal in the middle of a boss fight."
"That explains a lot." Musk replied with only a slight degree of sarcasm.
"Mmm! Is tasty." exclaimed Putin.
"This tastes a lot better than the stuff I normally have at home." exclaimed Reggie in a similar tone.
"Well, a lot of it was 3D printed. The pasta, the meat, they were 3D printed."
"But not the sauce?"
'"They tried that. It went about as well as you'd expect."
"Well, that makes sense. Trying to 3D print a liquid seems like a disaster waiting to happen."
"Also-" Link pulled a Remote Bomb from seemingly nowhere. "Wait, what is that and where did that come from?" Musk questioned cautiously.
"I just used the Remote Bomb rune on my Sheikah Slate." Link communicated using sign language.
"So wait, you're pulling bombs out of thin air? If we got our hands on that technology, imagine what we could do with it!"
"Russia could conquer the world with it." commented Putin.
"Or- wait, don't set that off in here!" Musk said it too late; Link had already blown a sizeable hole in the window and paraglided out. Fortunately, nobody was harmed, just a little (okay, a lot) spooked; bizarrely, the shards of the shattered window seemed perfectly cubic in geometry. Even more bizarrely, the window seemed to be slowly repairing itself. "How is that window repairing itself?" asked Reggie in a curious tone.
"Well, we've genetically engineered bacteria to build a transparent crystal." answered Musk.
After a brief pause, Reggie queried about the lack of a dessert menu. "I forgot to tell you that having dessert isn't really a thing anymore in 2050." replied Musk.
"I did not expect that. Then again, I did expect some changes - 2050 must be as different from 2020 as 2020 was 1990."
"Actually, it's more different. Technology progresses faster and faster each year."
"Well, that was a nice meal. How much did it cost?"
"251 euros for the four, well, three of us."
"251 euros‽ That's a lot!"
"No it's not, 30 years of inflation you'ven't experienced just makes it seem so."
"Oh. That makes sense. Wait, who's paying? Should we split the bill?"
"No; I'll automatically pay when we leave."
"How? Wirelessly or something?"
"Yes, wirelessly."
"So anyway, do you think we should leave?"
"Да." affirmed Putin.
"Yeah, I think so. We should also try and find Link."
"Good point. I think… yup, he flew out that window."
As the remaining three exited, they heard a satisfying beep followed by a lifelike "Thank you for eating with us."

Note: While the events of the omake are not canon, many of the details are.
 
Autonomous States of the USE
The United States of Europe has 32 Autonomous States, secondary subdivisions with the power to overrule some state legislature, similar to reservations in the USA. 14 of these lie in the contiguous USE, while the remaining 18 constitute the USE's overseas territories.
use as.png
 
The awkward little Slovakia sticking into central Europe made me LOL. XD

You know, I could see a part of the UK leaving and fully rejoining the EU, but the rest is genuinely weird and IMHO not at all feasible.

Also, most monarchies today are democracies. Otherwise even Australia, Canada and New Zealand couldn't be considered democracies. Some republics courting more authoritarian models of rule are democracies. Republics and constitutional monarchies are mostly democracies. Some republics are authoritarian and not democratic.

California becoming some economic powerhouse based on current outlooks is a bit of a pipe dream. It would be a successful independent country, that's without dispute, but the idea they could almost easily outcompete the whole rest of the US is a bit of wishful thinking. Japan moving in quickly to colonise Sakhalin in the 2030s also feels improbable to me. Where is this great Sakhalin colonisation craze coming from ?

Okay, so let's say that Poland, Czechia, Hungary and most randomly of all, Romania, had left the future EU and started their own block... while Bulgaria stayed ? Honestly, this is already rather random. But let's say they left...

Do you really think the EU would let in the rump remnant of Ukraine as a member state, when they don't even have easy trade access to it ? A Ukraine in a future EU is certainly a possibility, but an Ukraine this awkwardly cut off and surrounded ?

Furthermore, with whom do Poland, Hungary, Romania trade with to keep alive and avoid living standards backsliding ? They are not Putin's Russia, they wouldn't be able to just "keep the people down". People would emigrate even more greatly than they already have. Young families wouldn't be pleased at the severe lack of future economic prospects, and aging population numbers would only get worse, not better. Congratulations, you've created a potential Polish and Hungarian exodus to Slovakia. XD

Please understand: The reason much of the eastern half of the EU joined in 2004 and later was because our countries were still rather impoverished and really, really, really needed the markets of the then EU, greater financial and know-how flows, more investment, etc., etc. You really flatter Slovakia if you think it would be the only country unwilling to leave with this block of posturing countries. Slovakia would also be peeved if it had to lose a direct connection to its eastern neighbour Ukraine. Not take kindly to it, at all. While less used, in OTL the connection to Ukraine is vital.

The idea that Poland, Hungary or Romania would take Transcarpathia for themselves in the 21st century and no one would say a thing, is complete and utter baloney. I'm sorry, but it is. It's not the 1910s-1930s anymore. They don't have even a fraction of the military power needed to take these away from Ukraine permanently. Also, if they did that, the EU proper would no doubt start a Cold War with them. And local Ukrainians in the west would not give up without a fight. Putin's Russia carving off some more regions in eastern Ukraine I can understand, but these central European states would be an impossibility, especially if they are still in NATO or some successor of it. You flatter their armed forces capability far too much. (According to our Polish members here on the site, the armed forces aren't what they could be even in Poland. Certainly not adequate for landgrabs.) I think any taking of western Ukraine would be a bloodbath for the invaders.

The only nation somewhat successful at conquering western Ukraine in the early 20th century was Poland, and even they were forced to abandon some of their gains, though interwar Poland still included parts of Volhynia (Lviv, etc.). The other countries' efforts were basically non-existent, if you mean true military conquest. Czechoslovakia asked nicely at Versailles to receive Transcarpathia, locals more or less agreed and Czechoslovakia successfully kept the whole area for its entire interwar existence, without needing to overly defend it. Horthy's Hungary was incompetent to the extreme and the only way they managed to occupy bits of southern Transcarpathia and Slovakia was because they had direct diplomatic backing from Germany's and Italy's nazis or fascists. The areas had to basically surrender without a fight, because Hungary in and of itself had no chance of conquering those places on its own. The most use it saw was for terrorising Hungarians and conquered subjects, and even then the Allies made very quick work of it come the end of WWII. Hungary back then also had far more of a military industry, whereas nowadays, even Slovakia has more military manufacturing, and we don't exactly have that much of it. Your scenario of conquering western Ukraine is about as plausible as present day Slovakia going equally crazy and conquering Moravia from Czechia or Lower and Upper Austria and the Burgenland from Austria, with Vienna as some rump city state connected to the rest of the world via airlift. The present day and near future army of Hungary attacking Slovakia or Ukraine or both at once would end badly for the Hungarian army, especially since they do not have training for offensive warfare and for warfare in mountainous areas (trust me, western Ukraine is more than just hilly).

Back to the present... Despite the now thankfully over Klaus era posturing in Czechia (Václav Klaus is a senile self-important asshole and about as reasonable as cryptocommunist Zeman), and some recent but decidedly "meh" rabble-rousing attempted by newer Czech euroskeptics, Czechia isn't really in an economic position to intimidate the EU, or to feel that if it left, it could be some Czech-speaking Switzerland (old confused maps on CNN notwithstanding). To Czechia in particular, with its very close ties to the German economy, leaving the EU at this point or in the near future would be suicidal. Not an "ah, they'd figure out something" scenario, but a true "shooting yourself in the foot, then in the face for good measure, and dropping a boulder on their heads just to be sure". Hungary and Romania would be an even bigger example of that, almost ridiculously so. I mean, who would they even trade with ? Serbia ? Turkey ?! Yeah, don't think so... And even Russia would have bigger fish to fry.

Finally, Poland, though a bigger and beefier country that can throw its weight around a bit more, especially economically and politically, would be slightly less influenced by leaving, but it would still be a move bordering on the moronic. Do you know what's been behind the Polish economic miracle of the last ca 20 years ? Aside from fostering domestic enterpreneurship en masse, and plenty of Poles doing business as expats too, Poland's ties to the EU allowed it huge new markets. And it used this to its fullest, so much so, that it was one of the least affected countries during the recession of the late 2000s. So, severing ties with the EU would be a shot in the foot on full-auto, and only marginally less painful to endure than Hungary or Czechia or Slovakia or Romania did the same.

I have no idea why Romania left, but Bulgaria stayed with the EU. Just illogical, based on both political and economic trends. Furthermore, if Serbia and even Bosnia are now in the future EU, the idea that a huge chunk of the Visegrad countries decided to leave to stick it to the EU seems even more baloney. Honestly...

Not to be too negative: Make eastern Siberia independent and turn it into a model democracy that drives former Putinists to despair ! :) If we're going slightly nuts with this FH timeline, I want to see that ! :) They should also keep and finish Vostochny Cosmodrome and strike a deal with ESA, the EU and Slovakia for a new international space programme, LOL. :cool: I voted for an independent Siberia and I want to see that mayhem.
 
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Also, most monarchies today are democracies. Otherwise even Australia, Canada and New Zealand couldn't be considered democracies. Some republics courting more authoritarian models of rule are democracies. Republics and constitutional monarchies are mostly democracies. Some republics are authoritarian and not democratic.
I know.
California becoming some economic powerhouse based on current outlooks is a bit of a pipe dream. It would be a successful independent country, that's without dispute, but the idea they could almost easily outcompete the whole rest of the US is a bit of wishful thinking.
What happens is: America tanks massively during the 2020s. Political divisions grow deeper and deeper. Texas secedes in 2024 with some Russian and Chinese help, California/Oregon/Washington following shortly after as the republic of Pacifica. Given the number of big businesses in those four states already (Apple, Google, Microsoft, SpaceX) and a big-business-friendly environment, it's no wonder Pacifica would be an economic power.
Japan moving in quickly to colonise Sakhalin in the 2030s also feels improbable to me. Where is this great Sakhalin colonisation craze coming from ?
The Japanese government trying to increase the birthrate -> overpopulation -> conquer Sakhalin for lebensraum.
Okay, so let's say that Poland, Czechia, Hungary and most randomly of all, Romania, had left the future EU and started their own block... while Bulgaria stayed ? Honestly, this is already rather random. But let's say they left...

Do you really think the EU would let in the rump remnant of Ukraine as a member state, when they don't even have easy trade access to it ? A Ukraine in a future EU is certainly a possibility, but an Ukraine this awkwardly cut off and surrounded ?

Furthermore, with whom do Poland, Hungary, Romania trade with to keep alive and avoid living standards backsliding ? They are not Putin's Russia, they wouldn't be able to just "keep the people down". People would emigrate even more greatly than they already have. Young families wouldn't be pleased at the severe lack of future economic prospects, and aging population numbers would only get worse, not better. Congratulations, you've created a potential Polish and Hungarian exodus to Slovakia. XD

Please understand: The reason much of the eastern half of the EU joined in 2004 and later was because our countries were still rather impoverished and really, really, really needed the markets of the then EU, greater financial and know-how flows, more investment, etc., etc. You really flatter Slovakia if you think it would be the only country unwilling to leave with this block of posturing countries. Slovakia would also be peeved if it had to lose a direct connection to its eastern neighbour Ukraine. Not take kindly to it, at all. While less used, in OTL the connection to Ukraine is vital.

The idea that Poland, Hungary or Romania would take Transcarpathia for themselves in the 21st century and no one would say a thing, is complete and utter baloney. I'm sorry, but it is. It's not the 1910s-1930s anymore. They don't have even a fraction of the military power needed to take these away from Ukraine permanently. Also, if they did that, the EU proper would no doubt start a Cold War with them. And local Ukrainians in the west would not give up without a fight. Putin's Russia carving off some more regions in eastern Ukraine I can understand, but these central European states would be an impossibility, especially if they are still in NATO or some successor of it. You flatter their armed forces capability far too much. (According to our Polish members here on the site, the armed forces aren't what they could be even in Poland. Certainly not adequate for landgrabs.) I think any taking of western Ukraine would be a bloodbath for the invaders.

The only nation somewhat successful at conquering western Ukraine in the early 20th century was Poland, and even they were forced to abandon some of their gains, though interwar Poland still included parts of Volhynia (Lviv, etc.). The other countries' efforts were basically non-existent, if you mean true military conquest. Czechoslovakia asked nicely at Versailles to receive Transcarpathia, locals more or less agreed and Czechoslovakia successfully kept the whole area for its entire interwar existence, without needing to overly defend it. Horthy's Hungary was incompetent to the extreme and the only way they managed to occupy bits of southern Transcarpathia and Slovakia was because they had direct diplomatic backing from Germany's and Italy's nazis or fascists. The areas had to basically surrender without a fight, because Hungary in and of itself had no chance of conquering those places on its own. The most use it saw was for terrorising Hungarians and conquered subjects, and even then the Allies made very quick work of it come the end of WWII. Hungary back then also had far more of a military industry, whereas nowadays, even Slovakia has more military manufacturing, and we don't exactly have that much of it. Your scenario of conquering western Ukraine is about as plausible as present day Slovakia going equally crazy and conquering Moravia from Czechia or Lower and Upper Austria and the Burgenland from Austria, with Vienna as some rump city state connected to the rest of the world via airlift. The present day and near future army of Hungary attacking Slovakia or Ukraine or both at once would end badly for the Hungarian army, especially since they do not have training for offensive warfare and for warfare in mountainous areas (trust me, western Ukraine is more than just hilly).

Back to the present... Despite the now thankfully over Klaus era posturing in Czechia (Václav Klaus is a senile self-important asshole and about as reasonable as cryptocommunist Zeman), and some recent but decidedly "meh" rabble-rousing attempted by newer Czech euroskeptics, Czechia isn't really in an economic position to intimidate the EU, or to feel that if it left, it could be some Czech-speaking Switzerland (old confused maps on CNN notwithstanding). To Czechia in particular, with its very close ties to the German economy, leaving the EU at this point or in the near future would be suicidal. Not an "ah, they'd figure out something" scenario, but a true "shooting yourself in the foot, then in the face for good measure, and dropping a boulder on their heads just to be sure. Hungary and Romania would be an even bigger example of that, almost ridiculously so. I mean, who would they even trade with ? Serbia ? Turkey ?! Yeah, don't think so... And even Russia would have bigger fish to fry.

Finally, Poland, though a bigger and beefier country that can throw its weight around a bit more, especially economically and politically, would be slightly less influenced by leaving, but it would still be a move bordering on the moronic. Do you know what's been behind the Polish economic miracle of the last ca 20 years ? Aside from fostering domestic enterpreneurship en masse, and plenty of Poles doing business as expats too, Poland's ties to the EU allowed it huge new markets. And it used this to its fullest, so much so, that it was one of the least affected countries during the recession of the late 2000s. So, severing ties with the EU would be a shot in the foot on full-auto, and only marginally less painful to endure than Hungary or Czechia or Slovakia or Romania did the same.

I have no idea why Romania left, but Bulgaria stayed with the EU. Just illogical, based on both political and economic trends. Furthermore, if Serbia and even Bosnia are now in the future EU, the idea that a huge chunk of the Visegrad countries decided to leave to stick it to the EU seems even more baloney. Honestly...
Okay, let me explain Zapadoslavia. Here we go:
In 2036, the nations of the EU held a referendum on whether to federate or not. A majority voted Yes, but a few were majority No (Czechia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Moldova, Albania), as well as parts of southern Spain and Italy and western Ukraine. As a compromise, Ukraine was split east-west, with the east joining the USE and the west staying independent. All of the nations that voted No (sans Albania) decided it would be better together and formed Zapadoslavia in 2040. By 2050, Zapadoslavia is the USE's junior partner; both are part of the EFTA (European Free Trade Area), so no ties were severed in the first place.
tl;dr: No war, no severed ties, just politics.
Not to be too negative: Make eastern Siberia independent and turn it into a model democracy that drives former Putinists to despair ! :) If we're going slightly nuts with this FH timeline, I want to see that ! :) They should also keep and finish Vostochny Cosmodrome and strike a deal with ESA, the EU and Slovakia for a new international space programme, LOL. :cool: I voted for an independent Siberia and I want to see that mayhem.
Possibly, but by eastern Siberia I'm referring to Magadan Oblast + Kamchatka + Chukotka, certainly not down to Vladivostok (too important to let go).
 
Baghdad Accord
The Baghdad Accord is an alliance of 21 Middle Eastern nations, providing free trade, free travel, a common currency and a mutual defense pact. It was formed in 2025 at the Baghdad Accord, a summit in Baghdad where representatives from 14 countries plus the unrecognized state of Palestine met to discuss the future of the Middle East. (Egypt and Yemen were invited, but did not attend.) They agreed to redraw borders on ethnolinguistic and religious lines to create the 21 nations in place today, plus the four Special Regions. There is now a growing movement for unification, inspired by other successful federations of the 2030s and 2040s such as the United States of Europe, Maghreb Union and East African Federation.
The Accord is comprised of 21 sovereign nations, plus four Special Regions (Jerusalem, Baghdad, Mecca and Strait Islands) governed directly by the Accord government in Baghdad.
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Troubles in Sudan: War in Darfur and Hala'ib Disputes
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Whilst the rest of the world is enjoying 2050 as a new era of peace and prosperity, Sudan has pressing issues. An insurrection in Darfur has transformed into a full-scale war. Meanwhile, an uneasy peace has just came after ferocious disputes over the Hala'ib Triangle, with neither Egypt nor Sudan completely happy with the result.
 
World Democracy Index
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World Democracy Index 2050. Green is good, red is bad, the rest is self-evident. Balochistan has the lowest score of 1.63; Switzerland has the highest score of 9.94, with the USE, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Canada, Pacifica, Beringia, New Zealand, and the UN Mandates in the top 10.
 
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As Petike already pointed out, Central-Eastern European countries leaving UE/USE does not make sense. They profit a lot from being part of the EU *AND* they would be least likely to vote no on federalization, as they have long complained of being forgotten in favor of 'old EU countries', and federalization would vastly boost their standings with the EU and let them profit economically and technologically. They would be Europe's version of 'Asian tigers' if they stayed.
Especially with Slovakia being the odd one out - this is just the cherry on top of why this doesn't happen.
 
As Petike already pointed out, Central-Eastern European countries leaving UE/USE does not make sense. They profit a lot from being part of the EU *AND* they would be least likely to vote no on federalization, as they have long complained of being forgotten in favor of 'old EU countries', and federalization would vastly boost their standings with the EU and let them profit economically and technologically. They would be Europe's version of 'Asian tigers' if they stayed.
Especially with Slovakia being the odd one out - this is just the cherry on top of why this doesn't happen.
Since I'm not sure who will join the USE and who will form Zapadoslavia, I'm letting you decide. There is now a poll on Google Forms right here.
 
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