Giolitti decision will be influenced by this factor
1- trust on the army: OTL is decision to not enter the war (immediately) was also given by the non stellar performance of the army in the war against the Ottoman and the fact that there were not enough money and time to replenish all the material lost in Libya
2 - internal situation: is the situation stable or the nationalist,socialist and in general extremist are causing trouble and this event will surely make the situation much much worse...or there is the possibility of a Union Sacre-like governement. I don't take in consideration the catholic as with the Pope in Malta will be still proibihited to enter the italian political life (OTL in this period things were relaxed and a lot of time the church closed an eye)
3 - geopolitical situation: a short time bribe is ok only if really really there isn't the possibility to enter the war but A-h even OTL was tempted to launch a punitive expedition to teach the italians a lesson (and we were ally) so i image that now things are much worse than OTL in term of relationship. So being alone to face both France and AH will hardly be tempting
The Italian Army hasn't really had a chance to show its competency or lack thereof since the 1890s or the Boxer War, so Giolitti is looking a bit into the black box on that one. The Pope is back in Rome, which makes things easier in theory, but now that you bring it up the status of the Papacy is, after all, one of the big issues both Paris and Vienna have with Italy in addition to its German alliance and dalliances with Balkan states Austria considers her rightful backyard.

And as you point out - if AH was willing to attack Italy when they were allies, then there's almost no way Austria doesn't launch a preemptive attack on Italy, in all honesty, to start off the CEW when they've been in opposing alliance blocs since the mid-1870s. Italy almost certainly knows this, and thus the German alliance is worth a great deal.
 
The Italian Army hasn't really had a chance to show its competency or lack thereof since the 1890s or the Boxer War, so Giolitti is looking a bit into the black box on that one. The Pope is back in Rome, which makes things easier in theory, but now that you bring it up the status of the Papacy is, after all, one of the big issues both Paris and Vienna have with Italy in addition to its German alliance and dalliances with Balkan states Austria considers her rightful backyard.

And as you point out - if AH was willing to attack Italy when they were allies, then there's almost no way Austria doesn't launch a preemptive attack on Italy, in all honesty, to start off the CEW when they've been in opposing alliance blocs since the mid-1870s. Italy almost certainly knows this, and thus the German alliance is worth a great deal.

Ok no war with the Ottoman, good this mean a lot less stress for the economy (OTL cost was relative massive for the italian treasure, at least for past experience...a couple of years later with WWI that seemed peanuts) and less political stress as without that the socialist will be less divided but also less hostile towards Giolitti, but this Italy seem already a little more stable and a little more rich than OTL ...and frankly with A-H on the other side italian socialist will be less pacifist as even they know that conflict is very probable and an austrian victory will hardly mean a better life for the workers and frankly Montenegro being friendly with Italy (and the base of Cattaro available to Regia Marina) is one big red line for anyone in Wien or Budapest as Italy this way has the possibility to close the Adriatic , a situation unacceptable for A-H.
 
the socialist will be less divided but also less hostile towards Giolitti, but this Italy seem already a little more stable and a little more rich than OTL ...and frankly with A-H on the other side italian socialist will be less pacifist
Now I'm thinking about the possibility of Mussolini not getting kicked out by the Socialists for being pro-war, which could have lots of very interesting consequences.
 
You are doing a good job laying the groundwork for why France is barreling towards war. It all starts with how hapless and pathetic Napoleon V and how his complete lack of leadership ability or desire is causing his country to slide to ruin. France needs her Emperor and right now the Little Pigeon is certainly not up to the task.

I'm sure there's a great timeline on this timeline's version of this site that's "What if Napoleon IV doesn't get sick and dies young?" that looks at how France is able to navigate the stormy waters and come out if not the #1 country on the continent at least in the conversation.
 
Ok no war with the Ottoman, good this mean a lot less stress for the economy (OTL cost was relative massive for the italian treasure, at least for past experience...a couple of years later with WWI that seemed peanuts) and less political stress as without that the socialist will be less divided but also less hostile towards Giolitti, but this Italy seem already a little more stable and a little more rich than OTL ...and frankly with A-H on the other side italian socialist will be less pacifist as even they know that conflict is very probable and an austrian victory will hardly mean a better life for the workers and frankly Montenegro being friendly with Italy (and the base of Cattaro available to Regia Marina) is one big red line for anyone in Wien or Budapest as Italy this way has the possibility to close the Adriatic , a situation unacceptable for A-H.
Cattaro in particular is what makes an Italy-friendly Montenegro an absolute nonstarter for Vienna, absolutely. Which as you say reduces the instincts for Austria-Hungary to feel generous pre-war
Now I'm thinking about the possibility of Mussolini not getting kicked out by the Socialists for being pro-war, which could have lots of very interesting consequences.
And that is exactly where we’re headed
You are doing a good job laying the groundwork for why France is barreling towards war. It all starts with how hapless and pathetic Napoleon V and how his complete lack of leadership ability or desire is causing his country to slide to ruin. France needs her Emperor and right now the Little Pigeon is certainly not up to the task.

I'm sure there's a great timeline on this timeline's version of this site that's "What if Napoleon IV doesn't get sick and dies young?" that looks at how France is able to navigate the stormy waters and come out if not the #1 country on the continent at least in the conversation.
Thank you! To be sure I’d bet that’s a TL several writers have taken a stab at - it’s probably regarded as an even bigger POD than Friedrich III dying IOTL!
 
In Rome's Image: Italy and the 20th Century
(Since we were just talking about Italy...)

"...perhaps traded a conservative autocrat in Crispi for a liberal one in Giolitti. This, of course, was not entirely fair - Giolitti's social reforms were rooted in a certain progressivism and it is not particularly a trait of autocracy to expand the voting franchise. Nonetheless, Giolitti was often of the mind that the glue that held together Italy's fractious politics was his own personage, and as he ticked ever-closer to his mid-70s, his worries about his own health and the stability of the system began to grow.

Broad centrist "natural governing" parties across Europe have always had a hard go of it because they open themselves up to attacks from two directions, sniped at by the right for moving too far to the left and by the left for moving too far to the right. For Giolitti's Liberal Union it was even more difficult to manage by late 1915 as there was no particular party structure and his personal patronage was often required to maintain order and unity. Without him, it wasn't clear who exactly could take over between the conservatives arranged around Salandra and Sonnino or the progressives behind Boselli.

For the first time in his tenure, too, Giolitti was increasingly embattled by opposition parties that were not utterly supine to his carefully-managed triangulation, on both left and right, rather than merely regionalist discontent from the South of Italy, which while strong as ever was not particularly organized politically. The election of the ultramontane Domenico Serafini as Pope Gregory XVII at the end of 1913 had reinvigorated the traditionalist Catholic right, which was starting to chafe under the more moderate (albeit quite effective) leadership of Catholic Electoral Union chief Gentiloni and his protege Father Luigi Sturzo and demand a more muscular political Catholicism, a current in Italian politics that may have had some staying power had it not been strictly anti-nationalist and pan-Catholic, thus running into the rocks of the Central European War within a few years. To his left, too, there were problems, increasingly thanks to Giolitti's partnership with the UEC and the unpopular Gentiloni Pact. Sacchi's Radicals had elected to dispense with their refusal to cooperate with the Socialists and so, despite giving Giolitti support for the time being, Sacchi and Nitti had now both expressed willingness to cooperate in a future coalition with not just the Republicans but also the Socialists, who under a grouping of bright, charismatic and young leaders such as Giacomo Matteoti, Niccolo Bombacci and the pugilistic, uncompromising editor of the Socialist Party newspaper, Benito Mussolini. It was this group of revolutionaries who would lead the PSI in the first wave of Socialist parties across Europe either purging their moderates or splitting with them into separate parties throughout the late 1910s that challenged the rise of the movement in the years immediately preceding the war and polarized the left's reactions to it.

As with other European countries at this time, Italy in the mid-to-late 1910s was thus a place of remarkable rising standards of living thanks in large part to Giolitti's social reforms and favorable disposition towards organized labor (especially compared to many classical liberals elsewhere) but also an increasingly educated and demanding electorate leading to a livelier, more complicated political and cultural scene. What created issues for Italy specifically was that the UL was no longer able to simply point and demand and had to manage coalition partners with ideas of their own and an opposition that was increasingly strident in its calls for revolution or reaction, which appealed to workers both in wealthy but unequal Piedmont and Lombardy as well as the impoverished peasantry of the South, and an independent foreign policy that intersected poorly with the ambitions of its neighbors or the Great Detente once pursued by Germany to keep the peace with France. In short, the popular perception of Italy as an erratic time bomb seeking an external conflict to paper over internal issues is grossly overstated, but nonetheless as Giolitti's power and prestige declined, it was an open question what exactly would come next and what exactly that would mean for the average Italian after so many good years under first Crispi and then Giolitti leading many to take that stability for granted..."

- In Rome's Image: Italy and the 20th Century
 
An idea where Clemenceau ended up in this TL ? I'm at late spring 1914 and don't remember reading of him.
Given his uncompromising, stubborn character, I imagine he would have exiled himself to the United States and pursued a carreer in newspapers (not much known, he was the chief editor of the newspaper who accepted to publish Zola's "J'accuse" ) and perhaps local politics. After all, he actually lived several years in the US (the second half of the 1860s actually) in his twenties, working as a correspondant for French newspapers, gave lessons of French, and married an American girl.
Admittedly, he didn't mind leaving her in Vendee with the children while he enjoyed Parisian life and women, and when she returned the favor, they had a pretty nasty divorce; great statesman, macho, though regarding women's vote, he was more utterly indifferent and uninterested than hostile.
That said, with "Les Trois" triumvirate, it's not far fetched to conceive him electing to remain in the US (he lived somewhere New Jersey and Connecticut I think). Since he was pretty much an anti populist and anti imperialist, I think he'd rather had gone better along Liberals than Democrats.
 
An idea where Clemenceau ended up in this TL ? I'm at late spring 1914 and don't remember reading of him.
Given his uncompromising, stubborn character, I imagine he would have exiled himself to the United States and pursued a carreer in newspapers (not much known, he was the chief editor of the newspaper who accepted to publish Zola's "J'accuse" ) and perhaps local politics. After all, he actually lived several years in the US (the second half of the 1860s actually) in his twenties, working as a correspondant for French newspapers, gave lessons of French, and married an American girl.
Admittedly, he didn't mind leaving her in Vendee with the children while he enjoyed Parisian life and women, and when she returned the favor, they had a pretty nasty divorce; great statesman, macho, though regarding women's vote, he was more utterly indifferent and uninterested than hostile.
That said, with "Les Trois" triumvirate, it's not far fetched to conceive him electing to remain in the US (he lived somewhere New Jersey and Connecticut I think). Since he was pretty much an anti populist and anti imperialist, I think he'd rather had gone better along Liberals than Democrats.
That’s certainly a novel idea! Not sure how far he’d go in US local politics but just having him stateside could be cool to explore in the EU pages
 
That’s certainly a novel idea! Not sure how far he’d go in US local politics but just having him stateside could be cool to explore in the EU pages
How about a New Jersey Senate race between Liberal Clemenceau and Democrat Charles Bonaparte. Hatred from the old country bubbles up in the new.
 
Given Clemenceau's near-pathological hatred of Catholicism he'd fit right in with the Brahmins of the Northeast. I can see him being a protégé of Cabot Lodge, maybe a senior aide or something like that if he's not the mayor of a town in Massachusetts?
 
How about a New Jersey Senate race between Liberal Clemenceau and Democrat Charles Bonaparte. Hatred from the old country bubbles up in the new.
Heh. That’s kind of hilarious
Given Clemenceau's near-pathological hatred of Catholicism he'd fit right in with the Brahmins of the Northeast. I can see him being a protégé of Cabot Lodge, maybe a senior aide or something like that if he's not the mayor of a town in Massachusetts?
Clemenceau is a full generation older than Cabot Lodge but, yes, they’d at least be allies. I really like this idea.
 
Seem there is trouble in the catholic political side, honestly i doubt that Don Sturzo and the new pope will get along very well and in general while anti-nationalistic are also ready to compromise and frankly the ultramontane will quickly overstay their welcome in the catholic political circles of Italy that while hardly progressive they were usually not that level of reactionary (and frankly Don Sturzo looked to the Populari as a social and political alternative to the Socialist and to protec the weakest part of the population)

Edit: yep the UL is on the way of the Dodo against the more modern and mass party like the popular and the socialist, at the moment she can still be the one in command due to the making coaliton with both depending on the situation but once Giolitti is gone things will be extremely difficult because frankly nobody can take his place in the Liberals camp. OTL reasoning of Salandra to enter the war was also to prop up the liberals political position against the socialist and make him the clear heir of Giolitti as the winner of a 6 months- an year max war (a little miscalculation here isn't?) and the same can happen here, putting another nail to the coffin of peace.
 
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That’s certainly a novel idea! Not sure how far he’d go in US local politics but just having him stateside could be cool to explore in the EU pages
Not unlike Michelsen perhaps. It's not all too unlikely he and other die-hard French republicans who didn't reconcile themselves with the Second Empire might find their way into the United States, to plot their comeback. Not unlike Hugo exile in the Channel islands.
I don't know in the details how the Second Empire will fall, though I assume something Weimar style, so I can't help to picture Lenin's return from Switzerland, and "Clemenceau's return from America" ...

Given Clemenceau's near-pathological hatred of Catholicism he'd fit right in with the Brahmins of the Northeast. I can see him being a protégé of Cabot Lodge, maybe a senior aide or something like that if he's not the mayor of a town in Massachusetts?
Pathological is a strong word and the wrong one. Clemenceau was certainly an atheist, but not Catholic hating, more of a classical, steadfast anti clerical like you'd find at the time; his quarrel with Catholicism was a political one, not a religious one. He was a macho, stubborn and prideful, and his ego too big to contend with others of his kind, and anything but racist (as compared to the late 19th/early 20th century norms of racism). He was virulently opposed to the colonial ventures, and as much as he was anti clerical, he abhorred any form of religious discrimination, like anti semitism
I'm not sure that his ego would long stand in the same room than Lodge . Clemenceau was more of a maverick. Until he arrived to government in the mid 1900s, he passed over many opportunities to have power, because he simply didn't care. If he won anything, that would have to be on his term. The two times he headed the government, he was fallen by his own ego
 
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Oddly, it doesn't feel like Europe is as bound for bloodshed 3 years prior to the CEW as North America (at least) was prior to the GAW.
 
Not unlike Michelsen perhaps. It's not all too unlikely he and other die-hard French republicans who didn't reconcile themselves with the Second Empire might find their way into the United States, to plot their comeback. Not unlike Hugo exile in the Channel islands.
I don't know in the details how the Second Empire will fall, though I assume something Weimar style, so I can't help to picture Lenin's return from Switzerland, and "Clemenceau's return from America" ...


Pathological is a strong word and the wrong one. Clemenceau was certainly an atheist, but not Catholic hating, more of a classical, steadfast anti clerical like you'd find at the time; his quarrel with Catholicism was a political one, not a religious one. He was a macho, stubborn and prideful, and his ego too big to contend with others of his kind, and anything but racist (as compared to the late 19th/early 20th century norms of racism). He was virulently opposed to the colonial ventures, and as much as he was anti clerical, he abhorred any form of religious discrimination, like anti semitism
I'm not sure that his ego would long stand in the same room than Lodge . Clemenceau was more of a maverick. Until he arrived to government in the mid 1900s, he passed over many opportunities to have power, because he simply didn't care. If he won anything, that would have to be on his term. The two times he headed the government, he was fallen by his own ego
Part of the reason why he wasn't entrusted with power was partly because the republican leadership didn't trust him to exercise power responsibly. They thought that he would be another aspiring autocrat on the lines of Napoleon III or I. I think even he realized the dangers of giving power to a strong personality; he even said during an Presidential election of 1887 that the deputies should "vote for the stupidist". Given his reputation as not only stubborn but also incredibly volatile and at times authoritarian (recall his jailing of the Interior Minister Malvy during WWI) it's surprising that he was able to stay in government for as long as he did become prime minister.

He was Prime Minister for 6 years in total from 1906-1909 and from 1917-1920 which by the standards of the Third Republic is a pretty long time to be in office after all given that the average amount of time an individual prime minister spent in office was six months to a year at most. From 1900 to 1920 only Briand probably would have come close to exercising nearly as strong of an influence as he did. Regardless it would be difficult to see him being able to get along with equally dominant personalities like Lodge in the Liberal Party even if as you say both could be seen as secular liberals. Also his opposition to colonial adventures I think stemmed from the belief that expeditions to colonize say Indochina were a pointless distraction from the reconquest of Alsace-Lorraine from Germany.
 
I see a lot of political parties in North America and even in Europe being influenced by military veterans or veterans groups. On one hand there might be better medical care and job assistance for those who return, pensions for the disabled and widows, better veterans hospitals and so on. There also may be a breakdown of some class, ethnic and racial barriers as people serve next to each other. "Those (ethnics/races) aren't all bad, I served with some during the war, it's the others who are bad!" On the other hand those same groups may feel that democracy is too slow, too corrupt or too stupid to realize danger and decide to take matters into their own hands.
 
As a quick reminder to "Huey Long saves the day (that I am probably as guilty as anyone)", one of the Alt-Hist entries within TTL by the author includes the following phrase "Huey Long and his fellow travelers to launder Pitchfork Ben's reputation as a contrast to the conservative Redeemers running the show in Richmond before his election in 1933. "
So at this point we've got more than 15 years between the end of the war and Huey Long arriving.
Also, 1933 as an election means that the CSA *could* be on the same election schedule post-war as pre-war, but obviously, not a guarantee
 
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