1866: Russia marches with Prussia and Italy

[LordKalvan]

1. Agree that French intervention is unlikely A nice token offer is really all they need to give here. In the end, the French get nothing

2. Reinsurance treaty comes much later. The Russians aren't making any promises here

3. This is not Bismarck's call. This is the King's call. Moltke thought he could win a short war but not a long one. The Prussians do win but they aren't assured of that beforehand. Whichever side Russia joins wins unless someone else interferes. The King can make a deal with his nephew and take down the Austrians or his nephew might take the no and make an offer to the Austrians.

4. True, Belgium neutrality is part of the country's creation. The treaty gives the parties the right but not the duty to protect it. Making the offer is typical, crass politics. Napoleon might take it or not, the British aren't likely to do anything without a continental power

5. Which brings us back to Austria. Obviously, they aren't going to announce such war aims and will spring them only after they have won a complete victory. given the disparity of forces and how things played out OTL, that is likely to happen very quickly

6. The British might not like it but how do they intervene? The Crimean War had acheived little against Russia and the French aren't going to be helping. If France objects, its objecting to the growth of Prussia far more. Prussia is also easy to get to and the French would, if they intervene, intervene against the Prussians not the Russians. This isn't in British interests. The last thing the British need is the French pressing deep into Germany In 1914, the British care far more about the balance of power of Western rather than Eastern Europe

Really, to fight Russia, the British would need the Prussians. There is the possibility but any expansion of Prussian power is going to start sending off alarm bells in Paris

Remember that after Sadowa the king wanted to push on and reach the gates of Vienna, and the generals were not much behind in clamoring for a continuation of hostilities. Bismarck managed to convince everyone that it had to be a short war, and the real danger in continuing was to bring in the other Powers.

If there had been a coalition including Prussia, Russia and Italy, declaring war on Austria the outcome of the war would have been known to the man in the moon
It was not in the interest of Prussia to upset the applecart of continental balance, where Austria was the linchpin even if they were not anymore the Austria of 1815. As a matter of fact, the issue of a Russian intervention in the war was never discussed: the Russian themselves were less than keen, and the geopolitics of the czar were turned more toward Central Asia than Europe. Bismarck got what he wanted, a commitment that Russia would not intervene. The king would not have intruded: why should he? after all Bismarck had already pulled a few rabbits of his hat, including the successful war with Denmark and the casus belli for the war with Austria.
I don't believe that Bismarck had already planned the future: not as early as 1866, and anyway even the way the German empire was born proves that it was not a planned outcome of the Franco-Prussian war. However I do believe that he had already in mind a balance of power based on the alliance of the three conservative states, Russia, Austria and Prussia, who with alternate fortunes had been the guarantors of stability in Europe for more than thirty years. In the end he failed, since even good old Otto could not mediate between the contrasting goals of Austria and Russia: he certainly did try hard, though.

 

[funnyhat]

The agreed division of the spoils: Italy gets what it wants, Prussia anything within the Holy Roman Empire and Russia all outside of it

Nitpicking - the HRE is by this time the German Confederation.

 

[Aphrodite]

@LordKalvan I don't think we are in that much disagreement as to the situation but as to the implications

1. We have to remember that before the war, the Prussians are not assured of victory. As you mentioned, the campaign against the minor states went better than expected. Nor can Moltke be unaware of how close the Austrians are to victory at Sadowa. Defeat has its consequences. Austria is likely to demand Silesia, the former Danish provinces and the restoration of lands to the minor German states, Saxony in particular. Only Russia can limit those as none of it is likely to hinder French interests. Prussia needs Russia to say "no" not for Russia to say "We'll take the Oder for compensation"

2. Russia would never intervene to restore Bohemia to Austria but that is not what the Prussians demand in 1866. Russia tolerating the annexation of Hanover and Hesse is not such a sure thing. If either France or Russia intervenes, the Prussians are coming out empty handed. Prussia would be willing to make concessions to Russia to avoid that especially when the concessions are at Austria's expense

3. Anglo-French interests are not identical and in fact conflict with each other. France is not interested in seeing Prussia grow too powerful while the British won't mind much. The British are far more likely to be alarmed by Russian growth but France might see Russia as a counterweight to Prussia.

4. If France intervenes, she will intervene against Prussia. France can get to Prussia easily and that is where her interests lie. An attack on Russia will only strengthen Prussia which doesn't serve France in anyway

5. The minor German Princes are going to ditch the Austrians as soon as Russia intervenes. They are only in it because they think that Austria will win. Russian intervention makes that unlikely. But once the minors are out, their interests lie with Russia and not with Prussia. Russia is not likely to want anything from Bavaria, Hesse, Hanover or even Saxony. Prussia might. The minors need Russia and/or France. Preferably both. Again, this argues for French and Russian interests being in agreement not French and British

6. As you mentioned, the King was much more interested in taking territory than Bismarck. It was only that the Austrians remained strong enough to resist that makes him hesitate. with Russia in and the minors out, then the Prussians are pressing forward. The Carthaginian terms of the total dismemberment of Austria could only happen if the Austrian army is totally destroyed. Possible but not certain.


Something along the lines of Prussia gets Bohemia and Russia the passes is more likely or they drive to the Danube. In either case, the Russian objective of the destruction of Austrian power is achieved. Just the passes would transfer about a fourth of Austria's population to Russia and eliminate the Polish salient

Its not that Russia made a mistake in not allying with Austria- its that they allowed Prussia to grow without getting compensation

Nitpicking - the HRE is by this time the German Confederation.

True but they are using the old maps to cover the Austrian territory in Italy that used to be part of the HRE

 

[Tibi088]

Just to point out: letting Austria loose a few provinces - in Italy - and letting Austria be driven out of Germany is completly different than letting Austria disappear completly. The first two were scenarios that didnt destroy the balance of power immediately. Please bear in mind that at the time of the german unification Germany was far behind Brittain industrially and had not much higher population than either France or Austria. Bismack has also proved himself very moderate in victory which made it much easier to stomach and trust him. Destroying Austria this way would strengthen Russia in an unacceptable way (seemingly) and completly wreck any balance of power.

So I expect that Brittain and France gets involved.

 

[LordKalvan]

@LordKalvan I don't think we are in that much disagreement as to the situation but as to the implications

We do disagree completely on the conclusions, unfortunately: therefore we can only agree to disagree.
No one in the chancelleries of Europe wants the partition of Austria after a war to the knife, not even in Berlin, St. Petersburg or Florence.

 

[AmericanAdam]

I'd expect to see Russia taking at maximum little to no land, maybe just a little bit of Galicia-Volhynia, but other than that I don't see anything.