Lands of Red and Gold, Act II

[Jared]

VOC was involved. Not massively, mostly because, IIRC, on the very few things all Vietnamese factions agreed about was keeping strangers' presence in their affairs limited.
I am also under the impression that Vietnam was more or less able to satisfy the local demand for guns with internal production, but I may be grossly wrong on this point.
The French had some involvement in the area IOTL too, as it is obvious.

Ah, thanks for the information.

So, in short, whatever gun-running or interference the VOC (or CDO, or Nuttana) come up with ITTL will not be hugely profitable, nor will it lead to any meaningful influence over *Vietnam?

Here's a PDF link to a archaelogical article that really helped me grasp it (considering the Spanish chroniclers made far too much of a comparison to European ideas of nobility, while later archaeologists had a series racial bias, and tried to describe them in terms of more hunter/gather tribes). The latst translation of the Kaqchikel Chronicles, done by the University of Texas also does an excellent of job of explaining the subject.

Thanks for this, it's very interesting. Particularly to see how there are also comparisons made to various Polynesian societies.

In terms of what this means for post-HW Māori, while I need to think that through in more detail, there's some obvious parallels in terms of the development of shared leadership and lineages which may show up. With the new proto-states trying to integrate different lineages (iwi) together, and establishing new, fixed social units (whānau or chinamit?). That could feed into the depiction of the later Māori.

 

[Julius Vogel]

Come to think about it I'm not quite sure what the natural borders would be for early modern/Iron Age political units in the South Island.

The Alps really are not useful for unification!

I'd think that West Coast, Nelson-Marlborough, Canterbury-North Otago, Otago-Southland would almost work. Obviously you could merge these, but say West Coast- Nelson - Marlborough would require a strong naval component, which it probably would need anyway, given the Sounds and the closeness to the North Island.

 

[Falecius]

Ah, thanks for the information.

So, in short, whatever gun-running or interference the VOC (or CDO, or Nuttana) come up with ITTL will not be hugely profitable, nor will it lead to any meaningful influence over *Vietnam?

Well, probably not, unless they establish a foothold in Champa (which I think both Portugual and the VOC half-heartedly tried IOTL).
However, the Aururian plagues and a divided China would impact Vietnam quite heavily, and that might open to the Europeans some different avenues for influence that weren't there IOTL.

 

[bradpara]

Well, probably not, unless they establish a foothold in Champa (which I think both Portugual and the VOC half-heartedly tried IOTL).
However, the Aururian plagues and a divided China would impact Vietnam quite heavily, and that might open to the Europeans some different avenues for influence that weren't there IOTL.

Perhaps the losses suffered during the Plagues mean that the Ngyuen don't have the men both campaign against Champa and fight the Trinh meaning the concentrate on the latter abd give the former more breathing room giving a wealthier VOC more reason to invest in them.

Champa surviving would also mean that the Vietnamese never reach the Mekong Delta meaning that Khmer are spared at least that humilation. But also means bye bye *Saigon.

 

[Jared]

I'd think that West Coast, Nelson-Marlborough, Canterbury-North Otago, Otago-Southland would almost work. Obviously you could merge these, but say West Coast- Nelson - Marlborough would require a strong naval component, which it probably would need anyway, given the Sounds and the closeness to the North Island.

My plan (though not yet definite) was to have at least West Coast - Nelson together. This is partly because while there are natural barriers between West Coast and Nelson, they are not as severe as the highest of the Southern Alps. But it's mainly because the West Coast iwi, Te Arawa [1], went Plirite early and got better access to muskets and iron. Nelson was their first target after unification of the West Coast, and they had enough of a presence that I figured that they could make it stick.

Marlborough I'm not sure where it ends up, though probably with the northern Canterbury iwi. Other alternatives are with the Te Arawa (requiring a naval presence, which they have), or divided into non-contiguous areas (given that easiest access is by sea). I still have to work that one out.

Canterbury, Otago and Southland could have fallen in various ways, of course. My expected division into two reflects the French-backed Waitaha in *Dunedin getting an early start and gaining a considerable amount of territory, until traditionalist Māori groups coalesce in Canterbury and fend off further advances.

[1] Obviously rather further south than they were in OTL (Rotorua/Bay of Plenty).

Well, probably not, unless they establish a foothold in Champa (which I think both Portugual and the VOC half-heartedly tried IOTL).
However, the Aururian plagues and a divided China would impact Vietnam quite heavily, and that might open to the Europeans some different avenues for influence that weren't there IOTL.

Perhaps the losses suffered during the Plagues mean that the Ngyuen don't have the men both campaign against Champa and fight the Trinh meaning the concentrate on the latter abd give the former more breathing room giving a wealthier VOC more reason to invest in them.

The idea of Champa surviving for longer intrigues me, I admit. (Okay, parts of the country stayed independent for a while longer, but they were largely broken.) Does also lead to the question of what Champa is cultivating to sell to the VOC (or possibly French) in exchange for such support. Obviously OTL's southern Vietnam can grow a lot of things, but I'm not sure what they were producing during the seventeenth century.

Champa surviving would also mean that the Vietnamese never reach the Mekong Delta meaning that Khmer are spared at least that humilation. But also means bye bye *Saigon.

Goodbye to Saigon as we know it, certainly. But the place was a target for Vietnamese refugees during the early seventeenth century, so might become more of one if the Nguyen and Trinh are even more vigorously fighting each other. So there may still be a developing city there.

 

[bradpara]

Question:

I was wondering perhaps thinking about the design of Nangu Great ships if it was possible to sail one up a river.

If so it could open up some, interesting possibilities for trade.

 

[Julius Vogel]

It is kind of a cliche but French influenced South Island would be kind of neat. Imagine syncretic religion based on Maori interpretations of Catholicism, Plirism, and other allied trades!

 

[Jared]

I was wondering perhaps thinking about the design of Nangu Great ships if it was possible to sail one up a river.

If so it could open up some, interesting possibilities for trade.

Sure, provided that the river is generally navigable, and that the winds aren't impossibly contrary. In *Australia itself, of course, there are few navigable rivers, or at least very far upriver. In some, you can get a little way inland - e.g. the Hunter - but not too far. As with all such river navigation, it may mean waiting for the right wind, judging currents, and perhaps even putting a small boat out in front for people to row and pull the ship through the more difficult passages, but it is possible.

New Zealand is more promising, in that it has lots more navigable rivers. There is the problem of what the people up the river think of visits, particularly in the pre-Ten Kingdoms period - at every bend of the river, a chief - but there is some scope for trade there.

It is kind of a cliche but French influenced South Island would be kind of neat. Imagine syncretic religion based on Maori interpretations of Catholicism, Plirism, and other allied trades!

Oh yes, there could be all sorts of syncreticism going on. (And, admittedly, in the North Island too). I'd like to find a plausible way to get Islam there too, but so far I haven't come up with one. Maybe over the longer term.

Another related topic is that the prime Māori trading partner, in Otago, also happens to be sitting on the biggest pile of available gold in Aotearoa. That gold has to be discovered and exploited sooner or later, which leads to all sorts of entertaining possibilities.

 

[Julius Vogel]

The initial discoveries in central Otago were reasonably easy to exploit, iirc, so you could seen it anytime really. Proper exploitation ala one or two years into the OTL gold rushes may be a little out of scope still though.

Now I'm more interested in what people will think in Europe, Asia or the Americas! IOTL the gold/diamond rushes of South Africa, NZ, Australia and the US/Canada were quickly and widely transmitted due to technological improvements (newsmedia, fast ships etc), but here ships are still slow. You could get all sorts of Prester John like stories circulating around Europe for one. The Great Catholic King of Otago, fighting the heathens and maybe able to give succor to others?

Re Islam, well, that might not be so problematic. Perhaps the Maori king needs all his men (free or slaves) working in the fields, armies and building. He also needs money. So his French advisors bring in levy labour India, many of which are Muslims. Sure, it may only be a few hundred, but, as per Chinese immigration to the Goldfields IOTL, that may be enough to spread ideas.

http://www.teara.govt.nz/en/gold-and-gold-mining/page-2
http://www.doc.govt.nz/conservation/historic/by-region/otago/coastal-otago/gabriels-gully/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otago_Gold_Rush

 

[Jared]

The initial discoveries in central Otago were reasonably easy to exploit, iirc, so you could seen it anytime really. Proper exploitation ala one or two years into the OTL gold rushes may be a little out of scope still though.

Ah, interesting. Even the smallest hint of gold will still attract a great deal of European interest, of course, and the new Māori king of Otago will have in turn a great deal of interest in what European goods he can buy with gold.

Now I'm more interested in what people will think in Europe, Asia or the Americas! IOTL the gold/diamond rushes of South Africa, NZ, Australia and the US/Canada were quickly and widely transmitted due to technological improvements (newsmedia, fast ships etc), but here ships are still slow. You could get all sorts of Prester John like stories circulating around Europe for one. The Great Catholic King of Otago, fighting the heathens and maybe able to give succor to others?

The first thing that springs to mind is that Europe in particular (and to a lesser degree, Asia) already think of the Third World as a big source of gold. Particularly since in English the name they give it means Land of Gold. So in one sense Europeans are already used to the idea of there being a new new world with a wealth of gold. So they will probably start thinking of Aotearoa as being even more connected to Aururia - a mental connection which will outlast any exploitation of gold reserves.

The differences, though are twofold. The first is that this time, as you say, there's clearly a Catholic king involved. (How sincere his conversion is may be another matter, but he's at least nominally Catholic.) Maybe a place for even more tales about the wealth of this far land of gold, intertwined with how there is a beacon of faith among the heathens.

The second difference is that Aotearoa is also known in the broader world as the source of Pakanga raiders and mercenaries. Rather bloodthirsty ones, and at least in parts of Asia, Māori mercenaries have served in combat. (And a lot of them died, due more to disease than anything else, but they served). A land of gold-served, bloodthirsty raiders who aren't satisfied with what wealth they have, but seek out more plunder.

Re Islam, well, that might not be so problematic. Perhaps the Maori king needs all his men (free or slaves) working in the fields, armies and building. He also needs money. So his French advisors bring in levy labour India, many of which are Muslims. Sure, it may only be a few hundred, but, as per Chinese immigration to the Goldfields IOTL, that may be enough to spread ideas.

Good idea; thanks! It only takes a few ideas to add to the cultural ferment currently bubbling away in Aotearoa...

 

[Julius Vogel]

You could have all sorts of fun with French aligned Indians - why not go for the full set?

 

[Jared]

You could have all sorts of fun with French aligned Indians - why not go for the full set?

France will certainly have a presence in India - which may lead to both Muslim and Hindu influence in Otago. Now that could be fun.

More generally, I'm not at all sure how things will develop in India ITTL. The details of the fate of the Mughals will have changed a fair bit, what with plagues and whatnot, but in general I think that their inheritance system means that they will decline sooner or later. That will give Europeans something of a wedge, much as OTL - but the details could be entirely different. It's possible that there will be French, English and Dutch involvement as significant colonial trading powers in India. And, of course, the more European powers are involved, the easier it is for Indian polities to play those European powers against each other, perhaps even more than they did in OTL.

Plus, of course, ITTL the southern Indian mercantile powers now have rather more incentive to set up a trade presence in the Third World themselves. There's now goods that they want there (spices, jeeree), so perhaps they will find it worthwhile putting more effort into going there, and cultivating relationships with whichever Aururian polities remain independent. Perhaps the Indian powers may not succeed, of course, but it's an intriguing possibility.

 

[Falecius]

France will certainly have a presence in India - which may lead to both Muslim and Hindu influence in Otago. Now that could be fun.

More generally, I'm not at all sure how things will develop in India ITTL. The details of the fate of the Mughals will have changed a fair bit, what with plagues and whatnot, but in general I think that their inheritance system means that they will decline sooner or later. That will give Europeans something of a wedge, much as OTL - but the details could be entirely different. It's possible that there will be French, English and Dutch involvement as significant colonial trading powers in India. And, of course, the more European powers are involved, the easier it is for Indian polities to play those European powers against each other, perhaps even more than they did in OTL.

Plus, of course, ITTL the southern Indian mercantile powers now have rather more incentive to set up a trade presence in the Third World themselves. There's now goods that they want there (spices, jeeree), so perhaps they will find it worthwhile putting more effort into going there, and cultivating relationships with whichever Aururian polities remain independent. Perhaps the Indian powers may not succeed, of course, but it's an intriguing possibility.

Oh, dear. Travancore wank!
However, don't underestimate the Sikhs and the Afghans in this age's India.

 

[bradpara]

France will certainly have a presence in India - which may lead to both Muslim and Hindu influence in Otago. Now that could be fun.

More generally, I'm not at all sure how things will develop in India ITTL. The details of the fate of the Mughals will have changed a fair bit, what with plagues and whatnot, but in general I think that their inheritance system means that they will decline sooner or later. That will give Europeans something of a wedge, much as OTL - but the details could be entirely different. It's possible that there will be French, English and Dutch involvement as significant colonial trading powers in India. And, of course, the more European powers are involved, the easier it is for Indian polities to play those European powers against each other, perhaps even more than they did in OTL.

Plus, of course, ITTL the southern Indian mercantile powers now have rather more incentive to set up a trade presence in the Third World themselves. There's now goods that they want there (spices, jeeree), so perhaps they will find it worthwhile putting more effort into going there, and cultivating relationships with whichever Aururian polities remain independent. Perhaps the Indian powers may not succeed, of course, but it's an intriguing possibility.

Sounds cool, very cool. Esp if the Chinese are there as well.

Shame that we are about a century too late to get the Swahili to the Third World.

 

[Jared]

Oh, dear. Travancore wank!
However, don't underestimate the Sikhs and the Afghans in this age's India.

They could both grow a great deal.

The only drawback with writing a timeline that produces these kinds of global changes is that it leads to the temptation to try to cover the entire world. And that's just not possible, at least in any detail.

That said, this does sound like a good field if someone is feeling inspired to explore India as guest posts etc.

 

[mojojojo]

in the words of Haast Eagle’s Julius Vogel:

Is that named after THE Haast's Eagle? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haast's_eagle would an extinct creature really have the same name inthis TL as it does in ours?

 

[Jared]

Is that named after THE Haast's Eagle? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haast's_eagle would an extinct creature really have the same name inthis TL as it does in ours?

Haast Eagle is an allohistorical "false friend", i.e. a phrase which sounds the same as something used in OTL, but which has a different meaning. Much as there's a Third World in LoRaG, but it doesn't have quite the same meaning as in OTL.

Plus, of course, that kind of allohistorical allusion is fun to work in occasionally.

 

[mojojojo]

Haast Eagle is an allohistorical "false friend", i.e. a phrase which sounds the same as something used in OTL, but which has a different meaning. Much as there's a Third World in LoRaG, but it doesn't have quite the same meaning as in OTL.

Plus, of course, that kind of allohistorical allusion is fun to work in occasionally.

So just what is the Haast's Eagle of this TL?

 

[Jared]

So just what is the Haast's Eagle of this TL?

TTL's Haast Eagle started life as a famous pirate ship, most notorious for operating off the Tohu Coast (and captained by Haast, of course). Later it emerged as a popular *television series of the same name.

 

[mojojojo]

On the subject ofanimals. I know you said the Tasmanian wolf will be extinct before Australia has contact with the outside worl, what about the Tasmanian devil?
Will they still have to deal with this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil_facial_tumour_disease in this TL ? and what name will they end up being called by?