I gotta say, I've always felt like the way the southern German states have been treated in this timeline has been a bit... unfair?
This is a timeline all about people's self-determination, but the French and Austrians who have no problem shooting uppity Germans who think they should all be in one nation aren't given crap for it.
I really like this timeline, so I find this contrast a bit interesting.
I'm not sure if by "giving crap for it," you mean within the timeline, or by us the readers.
Within the timeline--I'd say the death toll on the various fronts amounts to the FARs being given quite a lot of "crap" for their highhandedness.
This, pretty much. Not to mention that a lot of chickens will come home to roost just as soon as the NDB is able to mount a counteroffensive into the southern German states.
And if you're referring, not to in-universe events or to the readers, but to the author, I don't think I've portrayed Leclair very favorably - he's a product of the Decade of Reaction, and I've mentioned that he's modeled after Avigdor Lieberman, who isn't one of the good guys. I've shown Leclair's France with saving graces, certainly, but I've done that with nearly everyplace here, even Russia. I won't deny having some sympathies for TTL's France, but those sympathies are with the progressive side of France - the side that, as of the last election, is waking up to the way that Leclair and his dysfunctional enablers have walked the country off a cliff.
Matters in France and southern Germany are a long way from settled, and they could turn out any number of ways.
Very unlikely. The only piece of occupied Italy the Pope has any claim whatsoever over is Ferrara and its surroundings, which is definitely NOT the point you want to be in middle of a war like this. The Papal claim on this area was the weakest one among the former Papal States territories, Austria had precedents coveting it, and more importantly the area was, well, little more than a very large malarial swamp with a city in the middle and some fields.
I think he meant more in the sense of governing it while it's temporarily occupied, not as a permanent gain. If he's framing it as his interest as an Italian for the purpose of protecting the people/making his cause look more legitimate in comparison to French/Austrian pupetry would that affect anything?
What Jord839 said. It's in the Pope's interest for the occupation of northern Italy to be a three-power arrangement rather than two, because that will cement his status as an independent power. It will also give him a role in shaping the new order in Italy as a whole and, in the event of a FAR victory, restructuring its politics in a way that will marginalize the anti-clerical faction.
Neither France nor Austria particularly want the Pope to have this much power, and they're also worried that if they grant it to him, he might use it to get even, which would cause them no end of partisan trouble. But he's providing a lot of troops, and his blessing for the FAR cause helps keep civilian morale from wavering too much. Right now they're stalling, but something might force the issue from one side or the other.
There's still enough that they could open up problems on the other side as well: If people sympathetic to the rebels help the Italian resistance in some way too and the French/Austrians cross the border/go after Swiss citizens, the gov't won't be happy either. It's in their interests not to do anything but protest and get them out as soon as possible, but if things spiral out of control, anything's possible.
Fair point; I guess that which way the Swiss government goes will depend a great deal on who intervenes first. If the Italians or the French want to get really Machiavellian, they might even try to provoke the other side into invading Switzerland, but I doubt this would happen given how many ways it could go wrong. More likely, any event that risks bringing Switzerland into the war will be error and not design.
As for Ticino, there WAS some small degree of, well, not exactly irredentism, but something milder, IOTL. A Swiss entanglement with the North Italian mess would make things interesting, in the bloody and messy sense. I am not very familiar with the history of Ticinese identity, but my limited understanding is that the it was an incredibly messy thing in this timeframe.
You're right that there was some mild thing going on in Ticino. It was always poor and conservative and that made hopes for reform pretty explosive when local elites tried to hold back the tide. Some of the more paranoid political commentators against a proportional representation movement around this time IIRC made claims that Italian irridentists in Ticino and other minority groups like monarchists in Neuchatel would ally to push their causes, but most of it was baseless fear-mongering AFAIK. Ticinese are probably going to feel a strong connection and sympathy with Italy ITTL but I don't think they'll be eager to leave the Confederation or anything. Still, if even a small group decides to get involved in the Milan pocket problems, that cause conflict.
I went looking for sources on the Ticino conflicts and didn't find much - there were a few old newspaper accounts of the 1890 revolt (including this), and Italian Wikipedia was also helpful. It seems that the conservatives gerrymandered the electoral system after coming into power in the 1870s, and that the tensions between them and the liberals came to a head in 1890 after a dispute over a referendum. It also seems like the revolt was initially more of a coup, which degenerated into guerrilla skirmishes after the federal government moved in to restore order. If that kind of thing happens in TTL, it would be very easy for Italian smugglers to get involved, and that could draw in the authorities in Milan.
Can anyone point me to an easily-available source on the region? English or French-language sources are preferable, although I can also manage German with a dictionary and sufficient time.