Malê Rising
- Thread starter Jonathan Edelstein
- Start date
Well.
That's a whole different level of shooting themselves in the foot isn't it?
I mentioned before that even a wildly successful campaign against Switzerland would be disastrous for the FAR war effort and it looks like even that might be optimistic for them, although your hint about the strain on civilian morale does indicate that Switzerland's going to have at least some serious setbacks coming in the next few months. Even guarding that border's going to tie down huge troop numbers, and now the South Germans are fighting a two-front war while the bulk of the French are down in Italy. I'd say that this might be seen as the beginning of the end in a lot of military histories. That said, I fully expect something to go horribly wrong for the BOGs soon to balance out this sudden windfall. We're still expecting something big happening in India soon after all, not to mention the Ireland and Oman situations.
It also does seem to point to what you were mentioning earlier about a possible earlier growth of *Christian democracy as a moderate counter-movement started by Catholics to the negative image of the ultramontanes and the Legion. I look forward to seeing that evolve.
I really liked the return of Flashman, this kind of crazy situation is just perfect for him to narrate. Will we be seeing more of him over the course of the war? Especially as similar situations happen and political systems fall apart and possible further neutrals get dragged in. Seeing him in Oman with all the feuding princes, for example.
Glad I could help with something in the plot, too.
That's a whole different level of shooting themselves in the foot isn't it?
I mentioned before that even a wildly successful campaign against Switzerland would be disastrous for the FAR war effort and it looks like even that might be optimistic for them, although your hint about the strain on civilian morale does indicate that Switzerland's going to have at least some serious setbacks coming in the next few months. Even guarding that border's going to tie down huge troop numbers, and now the South Germans are fighting a two-front war while the bulk of the French are down in Italy. I'd say that this might be seen as the beginning of the end in a lot of military histories. That said, I fully expect something to go horribly wrong for the BOGs soon to balance out this sudden windfall. We're still expecting something big happening in India soon after all, not to mention the Ireland and Oman situations.
It also does seem to point to what you were mentioning earlier about a possible earlier growth of *Christian democracy as a moderate counter-movement started by Catholics to the negative image of the ultramontanes and the Legion. I look forward to seeing that evolve.
I really liked the return of Flashman, this kind of crazy situation is just perfect for him to narrate. Will we be seeing more of him over the course of the war? Especially as similar situations happen and political systems fall apart and possible further neutrals get dragged in. Seeing him in Oman with all the feuding princes, for example.
Glad I could help with something in the plot, too.
Hnau
Banned
Oh man I loved your latest Flashman piece Jonathan. 
That was fun. Very unique. I never thought Flashman would spend his Great War time in Switzerland of all places but it was cool. Good to see Swiss history finally starting to diverge in this timeline! I have the feeling that this is the beginning of the end for FAR.
That was fun. Very unique. I never thought Flashman would spend his Great War time in Switzerland of all places but it was cool. Good to see Swiss history finally starting to diverge in this timeline! I have the feeling that this is the beginning of the end for FAR.Honestly, the only question I have at this point is how the war will ever reach the preordained four years. As far as I can tell, the war just ended.
Remember how fast Russia and Germany fell apart. You can't sustain a total war without a genuine belief that victory is possible or that defeat means extermination. With the latter not an issue, I wouldn't give the former six months.
Remember how fast Russia and Germany fell apart. You can't sustain a total war without a genuine belief that victory is possible or that defeat means extermination. With the latter not an issue, I wouldn't give the former six months.
Well, remember that there's been hints for a while now that something's going to happen in India soon because of those problems in the Princely States and of course Ireland's waiting in the wings as well. There's a lot that could go wrong for the BOGs in other fronts that could keep the hope of victory alive. Not to mention we haven't started getting to the point where the two sides are actively trying to dismantle each other's political systems. I think we've seen the first step to make the FARs desperate enough to start considering that as an option and once that happens it'll be hard for either side to avoid the fear of complete destruction of their status as great powers forever after.
That said, I'm reminded of something that Jonathan said way back in the thread about how the overall war winners might be clear losers on certain fronts. The FAR was probably always going to lose in Europe and Germany was going to come out united, this was just a way to secure that. At the same time, I remember during the conversation about Orthodox-Cheonist Korea that there was talk of Russia winning "on points" in parts of Asia, which suggests to me that, even if there's a revolution and it's not necessarily Romanov Russia, the BOGs are due for some major setbacks of their own in that area pretty soon.
Not to mention, if the Argentinian situation devolves into war between the Gaucho Republics and Argentina, Brazil will have almost a completely free hand in Graopara especially with Roosevelt and Twain doing their best to discredit the rubber plantations and the Graoparanese government that supports them, keeping the US out. If something goes wrong elsewhere again, the BOGs could pretty easily lose that front due to other commitments. Plus, the Gaucho republics would be in a de facto alliance with Brazilian interests, so if Chile jumps in on their side against Argentina, the nitrates problem for the BOGs is going to explode.
Other than that, the Khanate of Crimea's probably doomed. I can't see the Ottomans wanting to hold onto it and set up the stage for yet another war very soon. And Oman's still a powder keg just looking for the right spark, with all of the British-backed/ambivalent princes in the same place there's plenty of room for a huge diplomatic or, god forbid, military incident to make the whole region go up in flames.
I gather that the American rubber barons are against the Anglo-German backed Paraense government, on the basis of it having struck a deal that includes some kind of labor protection.
So, America staying out is actually beneficial to the BOG side in South America.
I really enjoyed the return of Flashman, HE, - interesting developmeyetnt to see him end up in Switzerland !
Went back and dressed his adventures with Usman and saw that in itl Victoria is Empress of Africa - I know it's a bit late and I'm not sure if it's been discussed, but wouldn't a better title for her be Empress in Africa? The former claims all of Africa and is unlikely to have been viewed positively by the other powers. There is precedent in the title of The Kings in Prussia.
!Went back and dressed his adventures with Usman and saw that in itl Victoria is Empress of Africa - I know it's a bit late and I'm not sure if it's been discussed, but wouldn't a better title for her be Empress in Africa? The former claims all of Africa and is unlikely to have been viewed positively by the other powers. There is precedent in the title of The Kings in Prussia.
Thanks to everyone who enjoyed Flashy's return - I certainly had fun bringing him back.
Switzerland's problems will be more internal - there will be widespread conservative opposition to a war against the pope (as they'll call it), and some conservatives will accuse the Radicals of trying to stage a coup. That will interfere with mobilization and may also cause a constitutional crisis.
Both sides in Switzerland are Catholic, and that will matter. It will also matter in postwar France and Spain.
He's fun, but as mentioned, he's getting up there in years, and only has so many misadventures left in him. He may show up one more time during the war or its immediate aftermath - "helping" to clean up the Congo mess, for instance - but he also may not.
Glad that you were there to contribute ideas. BTW, I wasn't planning for Switzerland to get involved in the war until you pointed me to the Ticino situation, so technically speaking, you're the one who just violated Swiss neutrality.
This may well prove to be a turning point, as some have suggested. Right now, though, Switzerland is a minor power with a small standing army, no offensive capability to speak of, and deep internal divisions. The short-term effect of its entry will be to draw off second-line French and Austrian troops and add incrementally to the strain on the FARs' resources, which will add to the pain but won't cause immediate collapse.
If the BOGs can take southern Germany and retake northern Italy, though, Swiss belligerence will become critical, because at that point, France will no longer have a land connection to Austria or Russia. In fact, a success in even one of those theaters will force the FARs to overcommit in the other one, and could make them very vulnerable. The spring and summer of 1896 could be make-or-break.
Things are already happening in India - the maharajahs and the Congress are fighting each other all over the princely states, and much as the Raj would prefer to stay out, its treaty commitments are drawing it in on the maharajahs' side. That's affecting recruitment and war production, and all that Russian incitement of the Afghan chieftains is about to reach critical mass.
The attacks on the enemy's political system have also started already; among other things, the Russians are inciting the Bedouins and the BOGs are returning the favor in Central Asia. At this point, though, these attacks are still tactics rather than strategy, and if things start to get desperate for the FARs, they can be ramped up. In the long run, the FARs are more vulnerable to political incitement than the BOGs, but in the near term, the BOGs could face some nasty surprises.
Things are fairly calm in Oman at the moment, because the princes have been persuaded to attend the feudal parliament, and most of them have agreed at least in principle to let the nobles decide the succession. But if the parliament does something unexpected - or if, as you say, there's an incident - all bets are off.
I won't say anything more right now, but there will be some significant developments in Asia in the next few months.
American intervention in the Amazon would be worse for the BOGs than the FARs, but it wouldn't be good for either side - the attitude of the American war party is "how dare you Europeans establish colonial puppet states in the Western Hemisphere, when that's our job."
Good point - it would be "Empress in Africa," or some other dodge like "Empress of British Africa."
Switzerland's problems will be more internal - there will be widespread conservative opposition to a war against the pope (as they'll call it), and some conservatives will accuse the Radicals of trying to stage a coup. That will interfere with mobilization and may also cause a constitutional crisis.
Both sides in Switzerland are Catholic, and that will matter. It will also matter in postwar France and Spain.
He's fun, but as mentioned, he's getting up there in years, and only has so many misadventures left in him. He may show up one more time during the war or its immediate aftermath - "helping" to clean up the Congo mess, for instance - but he also may not.
Glad that you were there to contribute ideas. BTW, I wasn't planning for Switzerland to get involved in the war until you pointed me to the Ticino situation, so technically speaking, you're the one who just violated Swiss neutrality.
This may well prove to be a turning point, as some have suggested. Right now, though, Switzerland is a minor power with a small standing army, no offensive capability to speak of, and deep internal divisions. The short-term effect of its entry will be to draw off second-line French and Austrian troops and add incrementally to the strain on the FARs' resources, which will add to the pain but won't cause immediate collapse.
If the BOGs can take southern Germany and retake northern Italy, though, Swiss belligerence will become critical, because at that point, France will no longer have a land connection to Austria or Russia. In fact, a success in even one of those theaters will force the FARs to overcommit in the other one, and could make them very vulnerable. The spring and summer of 1896 could be make-or-break.
Things are already happening in India - the maharajahs and the Congress are fighting each other all over the princely states, and much as the Raj would prefer to stay out, its treaty commitments are drawing it in on the maharajahs' side. That's affecting recruitment and war production, and all that Russian incitement of the Afghan chieftains is about to reach critical mass.
The attacks on the enemy's political system have also started already; among other things, the Russians are inciting the Bedouins and the BOGs are returning the favor in Central Asia. At this point, though, these attacks are still tactics rather than strategy, and if things start to get desperate for the FARs, they can be ramped up. In the long run, the FARs are more vulnerable to political incitement than the BOGs, but in the near term, the BOGs could face some nasty surprises.
Things are fairly calm in Oman at the moment, because the princes have been persuaded to attend the feudal parliament, and most of them have agreed at least in principle to let the nobles decide the succession. But if the parliament does something unexpected - or if, as you say, there's an incident - all bets are off.
I won't say anything more right now, but there will be some significant developments in Asia in the next few months.
American intervention in the Amazon would be worse for the BOGs than the FARs, but it wouldn't be good for either side - the attitude of the American war party is "how dare you Europeans establish colonial puppet states in the Western Hemisphere, when that's our job."
I really enjoyed the return of Flashman, HE, - interesting developmeyetnt to see him end up in Switzerland
Good point - it would be "Empress in Africa," or some other dodge like "Empress of British Africa."
Hi all and hail Jonathan!
I hate to criticize the timeline and especially right now--I woke up just in time to get to work without having any breakfast or coffee, and am pretty woozy right now. So I haven't thought through the full meaning of the Flashman story.
BTW, the way I've been figuring "Flashman" fits in the timeline--he's fictional, he never lived in the timeline, but his character narrates historical events that are widely known to have happened--with fictional intimate details of course.
So there was no General Flashman in Switzerland, but the Ticino Incident did happen.
I understand the interstate dynamics between Switzerland and France and Austria well enough; thanks to domestic politics, neither FAR power could denounce the Papal Legion, hence the diplomatic chain reaction bringing Switzerland onto the BOG side.
What I don't understand is why the Papal Legion itself did not apologize. Not only did they attack the armed forces of a sovereign and neutral nation (and of course, invade said nation in armed force); what the Swiss federal forces were doing when they were attacked was sitting on the same liberal insurgents the PL forces invaded to destroy.
In short, the Swiss federal army was doing the Papal Legion's job for it. Perhaps not to their entire satisfaction; probably any liberals they actually caught would not be killed but merely imprisoned, maybe even returned to their homes under a kind of house arrest, and it seems quite likely to me they actually got a lot of warning before the Feds showed up and were effectively allowed to run for it. So they aren't dead, but the Feds had, to a great degree before the Incident anyway, been trying to keep the peace by suppressing the violent excesses of both sides--and where they couldn't do that, as in this canton, allowing the reactionary Catholic political machinery to rule even in a canton where they might lose an honest election--for the sake of keeping the balance of power and preventing either side from feeling that the confederation might turn on any one faction.
So actually the PL did a very stupid thing. Switzerland neutral was worth something to the FARs, the way Spain was and hopefully (for the sake of the Spanish and to keep general bloodshed down, as well, I say grudgingly from my point of view, for the FARs) still is. Switzerland as an active and unified and enthusiastic member of the FAR alliance might have been quite welcome, but unfortunately for the FARs that was never a likely outcome--not possible really. Could the Protestant factions in Switzerland be mollified by offers of territory--but what territory? Bavaria, in lieu of it becoming part of the North German state (which is what its rebellious citizens want) somehow added on as a super-canton with a newly minted democratic canton government? Or broken up into a dozen new cantons, each with their own artificial democracies? Italian territory perhaps carved off of northern Italy? Access to the sea perhaps?
All such territory the FARs might conceivably seek to bribe the Swiss with comes with Catholic citizens. Not the best way to lure in the Protestants to support them! Not to mention the sheer absurdity of it.
So no, if there are any cool heads anywhere on the FAR side, they have to prefer Swiss neutrality as the best realistic outcome for them. Those cool heads have to understand that hitherto the federal system and the shared commitment of all Confederation members to stay united within it has done them the best service Switzerland could be expected to offer the FARs. Perhaps the sad story of the Federal government backing a rigged and autocratic cantonial government that is pro-FAR is balanced elsewhere in the confederation by substantial numbers of pro-FAR (and presumably Catholic, I can see Catholics supporting the BOGs for various reasons, but I can't see any Swiss Protestants having any reason to back the FARs) being suppressed in turn in favor of a marginal Protestant (or perhaps bi-denominational) liberal regime in some other canton. But I don't think it would work that way.
In fact, the situation Jonathan described pre-Incident looks to me like one where the Federal government was bending over backwards to keep peace at all costs, and being skillfully manipulated by an ultramontane minority (Catholics as a whole might be almost, or even more than, half the population, but they are split themselves) to accept that neutrality means being very friendly with the FARs.
Post-Incident--barring some very skillful diplomacy offering the Swiss both carrots and sticks to try to get past the Incident, the outcome Jonathan described is the default I guess. The bent-over parts of the Swiss body-politic will snap up with a big twang; deals with the ultramontane factions are off.
Vice versa though--if the deals are off, not every Catholic will want to rebel, and some that want to won't dare because they don't live where people with their kind of thinking are a big enough bloc. But there will surely be trouble, perhaps Troubles a la Ulster--perhaps worse, perhaps the treasonous secession of whole cantons and bloody civil war.
And that was the leverage the ultras had in the first place; that is the strongest card in the hand of any FAR diplomat of high intelligence.
It was neither the government of France nor Austria that caused the Ticino Incident; that was the PL.
The timeline's declared course stands if no one in the PL chain of command itself is either astute enough to realize the value of neutral Switzerland, or obedient enough to someone higher up--the Papal Curia itself for instance, one would assume has someone with some wit in it--to eat crow for the sake of the greater cause.
This might not be final proof of the complete intellectual bankruptcy of the Curia (or even the Pope himself as an individual) or the ranks of the PL. Perhaps their smart people were in the wrong place at the critical times, or fumbled the ball.
But what it looked like to me is--they have the ball, but it is the Idiot Ball. I was very very surprised to see the Swiss confederation take a side in the war; it could take neither without inflaming domestic controversy, and while they've taken the side I'd have wished for them to take, in so doing they will suffer internal treachery in favor of a foe that (at whatever cost to their side in terms of diverting troops from other crucial fronts) has them in its jaws.
I therefore expected the Confederation to have a very thick skin regarding insults such as what happened at Tricino, to refrain from issuing ultimata as they did here at least until some face-saving approach was negotiated under the table in advance. And that the FAR negotiators need not be first-rank diplomatic geniuses to work out such a deal with the Federal negotiators; they'd practically have the terms spoon-fed to them.
I suppose I could also consider, in addition to the FAR side being caught napping, that perhaps the liberal, pro-BOG factions in Switzerland have been chafing under the alleged necessity of appeasing the ultramontanes, and have been waiting for an excuse to turn the tables; they'd perhaps have eventually snapped with a much weaker excuse than the Tricino Incident.
I hate to criticize the timeline and especially right now--I woke up just in time to get to work without having any breakfast or coffee, and am pretty woozy right now. So I haven't thought through the full meaning of the Flashman story.
BTW, the way I've been figuring "Flashman" fits in the timeline--he's fictional, he never lived in the timeline, but his character narrates historical events that are widely known to have happened--with fictional intimate details of course.
So there was no General Flashman in Switzerland, but the Ticino Incident did happen.
I understand the interstate dynamics between Switzerland and France and Austria well enough; thanks to domestic politics, neither FAR power could denounce the Papal Legion, hence the diplomatic chain reaction bringing Switzerland onto the BOG side.
What I don't understand is why the Papal Legion itself did not apologize. Not only did they attack the armed forces of a sovereign and neutral nation (and of course, invade said nation in armed force); what the Swiss federal forces were doing when they were attacked was sitting on the same liberal insurgents the PL forces invaded to destroy.
In short, the Swiss federal army was doing the Papal Legion's job for it. Perhaps not to their entire satisfaction; probably any liberals they actually caught would not be killed but merely imprisoned, maybe even returned to their homes under a kind of house arrest, and it seems quite likely to me they actually got a lot of warning before the Feds showed up and were effectively allowed to run for it. So they aren't dead, but the Feds had, to a great degree before the Incident anyway, been trying to keep the peace by suppressing the violent excesses of both sides--and where they couldn't do that, as in this canton, allowing the reactionary Catholic political machinery to rule even in a canton where they might lose an honest election--for the sake of keeping the balance of power and preventing either side from feeling that the confederation might turn on any one faction.
So actually the PL did a very stupid thing. Switzerland neutral was worth something to the FARs, the way Spain was and hopefully (for the sake of the Spanish and to keep general bloodshed down, as well, I say grudgingly from my point of view, for the FARs) still is. Switzerland as an active and unified and enthusiastic member of the FAR alliance might have been quite welcome, but unfortunately for the FARs that was never a likely outcome--not possible really. Could the Protestant factions in Switzerland be mollified by offers of territory--but what territory? Bavaria, in lieu of it becoming part of the North German state (which is what its rebellious citizens want) somehow added on as a super-canton with a newly minted democratic canton government? Or broken up into a dozen new cantons, each with their own artificial democracies? Italian territory perhaps carved off of northern Italy? Access to the sea perhaps?
All such territory the FARs might conceivably seek to bribe the Swiss with comes with Catholic citizens. Not the best way to lure in the Protestants to support them!
Not to mention the sheer absurdity of it.So no, if there are any cool heads anywhere on the FAR side, they have to prefer Swiss neutrality as the best realistic outcome for them. Those cool heads have to understand that hitherto the federal system and the shared commitment of all Confederation members to stay united within it has done them the best service Switzerland could be expected to offer the FARs. Perhaps the sad story of the Federal government backing a rigged and autocratic cantonial government that is pro-FAR is balanced elsewhere in the confederation by substantial numbers of pro-FAR (and presumably Catholic, I can see Catholics supporting the BOGs for various reasons, but I can't see any Swiss Protestants having any reason to back the FARs) being suppressed in turn in favor of a marginal Protestant (or perhaps bi-denominational) liberal regime in some other canton. But I don't think it would work that way.
In fact, the situation Jonathan described pre-Incident looks to me like one where the Federal government was bending over backwards to keep peace at all costs, and being skillfully manipulated by an ultramontane minority (Catholics as a whole might be almost, or even more than, half the population, but they are split themselves) to accept that neutrality means being very friendly with the FARs.
Post-Incident--barring some very skillful diplomacy offering the Swiss both carrots and sticks to try to get past the Incident, the outcome Jonathan described is the default I guess. The bent-over parts of the Swiss body-politic will snap up with a big twang; deals with the ultramontane factions are off.
Vice versa though--if the deals are off, not every Catholic will want to rebel, and some that want to won't dare because they don't live where people with their kind of thinking are a big enough bloc. But there will surely be trouble, perhaps Troubles a la Ulster--perhaps worse, perhaps the treasonous secession of whole cantons and bloody civil war.
And that was the leverage the ultras had in the first place; that is the strongest card in the hand of any FAR diplomat of high intelligence.
It was neither the government of France nor Austria that caused the Ticino Incident; that was the PL.
The timeline's declared course stands if no one in the PL chain of command itself is either astute enough to realize the value of neutral Switzerland, or obedient enough to someone higher up--the Papal Curia itself for instance, one would assume has someone with some wit in it--to eat crow for the sake of the greater cause.
This might not be final proof of the complete intellectual bankruptcy of the Curia (or even the Pope himself as an individual) or the ranks of the PL. Perhaps their smart people were in the wrong place at the critical times, or fumbled the ball.
But what it looked like to me is--they have the ball, but it is the Idiot Ball. I was very very surprised to see the Swiss confederation take a side in the war; it could take neither without inflaming domestic controversy, and while they've taken the side I'd have wished for them to take, in so doing they will suffer internal treachery in favor of a foe that (at whatever cost to their side in terms of diverting troops from other crucial fronts) has them in its jaws.
I therefore expected the Confederation to have a very thick skin regarding insults such as what happened at Tricino, to refrain from issuing ultimata as they did here at least until some face-saving approach was negotiated under the table in advance. And that the FAR negotiators need not be first-rank diplomatic geniuses to work out such a deal with the Federal negotiators; they'd practically have the terms spoon-fed to them.
I suppose I could also consider, in addition to the FAR side being caught napping, that perhaps the liberal, pro-BOG factions in Switzerland have been chafing under the alleged necessity of appeasing the ultramontanes, and have been waiting for an excuse to turn the tables; they'd perhaps have eventually snapped with a much weaker excuse than the Tricino Incident.
As far as I remember they didn't want to cease all activity in Switzerland which I believe was a demand on the part of the Swiss government.
I dunno. I'm just making straight-line comparisons with your canon. If there was legitimate reason to worry about the vulnerability in the north before, and a real question whether there were enough forces to both garrison the north of Italy and assault the Appenines.... If there were men and machines to break through the Sudetenland last year, and the industry and recruitment disparity has only been increasing....
The problem isn't pulling off "real" formations; it's the loss of those second-line troops. The sheer number of them required to close Italian partisans and South German nationalists off from Switzerland will be enormous. It has to come from somewhere, and the only place with a surplus of troops is Italy, where they were essential to break Italy as quickly as possible before Switzerland came in.
This is why I gave six months for hope to be lost: the FAR now have to win in Italy, but it will be obvious almost immediately that that's impossible. I still think your projections of an orderly Italian retreat are optimistic, so I'd agree they have plenty of troops to break the Apennines, and know it. But they don't have sufficient troops to force the Italian government to make peace. Advancing on Rome without overwhelming force and lots of second-line troops to hold your supply lines is a waste of time. The British control the Mediterranean and would jump at the chance to pocket the FARs mobile reserves.
For the same reason, merely breaking into Tuscany and digging in isn't enough - any Italian government making peace "on the verge of victory" would face severe internal resistance and the real possibility that they could just be replaced with British help. Like was tried OTL in Russia, but logistically feasible.
One the opposite side, there was inevitably going to be a BOG offensive in Germany to support the Italians, and probably a big one if they noticed the troop shifts. Given that it was practical a year ago to not just collapse trench lines, but also pursue across a mountain range in an industrialized region.... Assuming that the numbers of men and materiel are much more in their favor, it's reasonable to expect the British and Germans (read: "Indians") facing even more depleted FAR troops.... This year such an offensive could realistically hope to overrun the entire inter-German front and break the Hapsburgs at a stroke.
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The main issue I think of about Switzerland is mainly its capacity to endure a FAR blockade given that they are surrounded since the breakout in North Italy. Beyond the obvious internal issues, this topic is going to be a major domestic issue as even with war, I doubt they could expect some BOG supply expedition before long. How Bern plan to settle that problem?
That is such a direct way of asking what I was frothing about. Granted the Confederation had more than ample grounds to declare war--how dare they? They'd have to fight their way to the sea, or north to North Germany, to get into contact with any ally or have any supply lines whatsoever.
Which is why I thought, incidents or no, Switzerland would stay neutral. If they didn't like the way the Papal Legion acted like an army free of all borders--they could retreat from the policy of conciliating ultramontanes. Let cantons like Ticino have fair and honest elections that would turn them out; let the ultras pay the political price of their association with these vigilantes--and let the cantonal and federal forces fight any PL units they see on Swiss soil, to the death. That will curtail PL gangsterism, and if the FAR powers wanted to react to that with their own DOW--then the onus of aggression would fall on them. But the arguments I made for why it would be counterproductive to FAR interests to fight Switzerland (unless they think they can quickly and cheaply conquer the place
) apply.Choosing to instead move the matter into the international forum without regard to their condition of logistical encirclement is the other matter, along with the FAR idiocy in backing Switzerland into a corner (which could be chalked up to the PL's loose-cannon idiocy I guess) that strikes me as, for perhaps the first time ever in the timeline, an implausible deviation from reality. I did say my thinking was muddled last night; I focused on the wrong side. Never mind whether the FARs could be stupid enough to provoke the Swiss like that--say they have ample reserves of stupid. Especially in the Papal Legions!
How can the Swiss dare to be the ones to make it a formal declaration of war? I'd think that such overt violations of Swiss sovereignty would be plenty to shift the domestic politics against the ultramontanes and keep them quiet when the Confederacy reacts forcefully to such invasions, and the mood shifts generally against the Papal cause and the FARs. And in turn then the FARs, even egged on by the ultramontanes, would not dare to make it formal war.
This is what I think would really happen, then. Switzerland shifts to a BOG-sympathetic neutrality, with grievances and grudges against France and Austria and with ultramontanes of the more violent sort becoming political pariahs. But no DOW from either side, not at any rate until the situation dramatically changed one way or another; if the Swiss were utterly and securely surrounded the FARs might turn to settle scores with them; vice versa if the FAR position were in visible collapse the Swiss might then jump in opportunistically. But in the current situation I had to figure Swiss neutrality was too stable and mutually desirable to end yet.
And so the timeline has for the first time strayed into implausible territory, and I had to question it.
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If I can manage to boil it down--the implausible part is Bern reacting with a formal ultimatum. The incident would produce an anti-reactionary shift in Swiss domestic politics; it would put the ultramontanes there on the defensive and the Confederation would act, in the name of internal policing, in ways the FARs might conceivably overreact to. They might encourage the reactionary cantons to secede before their warrant to govern is taken away and that might force the rest of the Confederacy to declare war. French and/or Austrian forces might invade; that would do it too. Either way though the onus of a breakdown ought to be on the FAR side; they might foolishly think their encirclement of Switzerland close enough to complete to try it. But for the Swiss to be the ones to declare war, at this point, strikes me as very strange and dangerous for them. If instead they forebore and concentrated on mastering their own house, and were then abused by treason and invasion, the moral solidarity of the Confederation would be much firmer; as it is they seem to have stepped on the battlefield prematurely and gratuitously. And predictably, they will suffer not only from FAR encirclement but from internal schisms that would have been far less damaging if the Swiss federal government had not been the party that jumped into war.
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Hrm.... I hadn't thought of that.
In practical terms the FAR can't overrun Switzerland - even if it devolved into civil war, they couldn't force the whole place. It'd take time and men and bullets they don't have. But that's all from the point of view of the alliances.
From the Swiss perspective, "we could bleed them out, retreat to ski lodges, and probably be on the winning team," doesn't sound quite as appealing. They're not yet thinking in terms of subjecting their nation to total war.
In practical terms the FAR can't overrun Switzerland - even if it devolved into civil war, they couldn't force the whole place. It'd take time and men and bullets they don't have. But that's all from the point of view of the alliances.
From the Swiss perspective, "we could bleed them out, retreat to ski lodges, and probably be on the winning team," doesn't sound quite as appealing. They're not yet thinking in terms of subjecting their nation to total war.
I can see a reasoning on the Swiss side more or less like this:
"FAR are getting closer to encircle us completely and are encroaching our borders in the process. If they close the pocket in Milan, they'll be secure enough to threaten our independence at leisure or bully us into accepting an unfair amount of ultramontane influence.
Swift and decisive action now is risky but it could tip the balance and restore a more balanced situation where we won't be entirely dependent on the FAR."
This line of thinking is debatable and arguably foolishly bold, but makes sense enough that I can envision it being followed if the Federals are pissed enough.
However, maybe a longer escalation in Ticino as opposed to a DOW following a major incident is more likely.
"FAR are getting closer to encircle us completely and are encroaching our borders in the process. If they close the pocket in Milan, they'll be secure enough to threaten our independence at leisure or bully us into accepting an unfair amount of ultramontane influence.
Swift and decisive action now is risky but it could tip the balance and restore a more balanced situation where we won't be entirely dependent on the FAR."
This line of thinking is debatable and arguably foolishly bold, but makes sense enough that I can envision it being followed if the Federals are pissed enough.
However, maybe a longer escalation in Ticino as opposed to a DOW following a major incident is more likely.
Maybe this is a way of closing the Swiss DOW circle?
Swiss Federal patrol is attacked by Papal Legion troops, who are defeated. They flee south over the Italian border, with the Feds in hot pursuit. The Federal troops are commanded by an officer with strong liberal and anti-clerical leanings. When the Papal Legionnaires try to take shelter in a rural parish, the Swiss troops feel no qualms about attacking the church, in the process destroying it. When this "atrocity" becomes known, the French ultramontane right demands a declaration of war on Switzerland, which is stubbornly refusing unreasonable French demands (think Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbia, 1914). Leclair is forced to give in, and the war starts...
Swiss Federal patrol is attacked by Papal Legion troops, who are defeated. They flee south over the Italian border, with the Feds in hot pursuit. The Federal troops are commanded by an officer with strong liberal and anti-clerical leanings. When the Papal Legionnaires try to take shelter in a rural parish, the Swiss troops feel no qualms about attacking the church, in the process destroying it. When this "atrocity" becomes known, the French ultramontane right demands a declaration of war on Switzerland, which is stubbornly refusing unreasonable French demands (think Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbia, 1914). Leclair is forced to give in, and the war starts...
Some good points made by all. I'll unpack my thinking below, and make a proposal.
Correct. Anywhere Flashman appears, you can assume that the account is fictionalized, but that the historical events described in the story actually happened and that the details are roughly accurate (albeit filtered through the lens of a nineteenth-century bigot and cad).
You're entirely correct about Switzerland's internal situation and the political ramifications of the incident. The Swiss government was anxious to avoid both external and internal conflict, and also to preserve its constitutional structure, so it was at pains to support the cantonal governments (as it did during the OTL Ticino revolt, which was motivated by roughly the same electoral crisis), to police the border, and to prevent Italy from establishing a military presence on Swiss soil. The policing was, as you suggest, done with a wink and a nod - the army made sure the smugglers/radicals knew they were coming, and those foolish enough to get caught faced short prison sentences at worst - but the federal government's attitude was still one of friendly neutrality toward both the BOGs and the FARs.
Then, the Ticino Incident happens.
The Pope probably could end the matter right there with an apology and a promise of reparations, and there would certainly be ministers in the exiled Curia telling him to do just that. Unfortunately, he's been radicalized by being driven out of Rome, and he has a major blind spot where Italians are concerned - after all, they're the anticlerical bastards who booted him out of the Vatican! So rather than apologize at once, he hems and haws, and the more time that passes, the worse the situation gets.
Also, given that the Papal Legion is a recently-formed polyglot volunteer army without established traditions or institutions, it almost has to have a loose command structure. Many of the officers, especially the company-grade ones, are ultramontanes who bring their political and religious views to the battlefield, and they won't react well to orders that go against those views. The Pope may be supreme commander, but he can't say "lay off Ticino" with any guarantee that his orders would be obeyed, and if he tried to enforce those orders, he might lose soldiers to desertion.
In the meantime, the Swiss have at least two factors pushing them toward a tough stance. First, while neutrality is valuable to Switzerland, its ability to maintain that neutrality depends on its neighbors seeing it as a country not to be messed with. If the Swiss army lets a foreign military force invade its territory, kill its soldiers and claim the right to control the border without responding forcefully, then its defensive deterrence will be compromised. This is more or less the point Falecius made. Second, the Sonderbund war wasn't that long ago, and some of the ultramontanes might want to use the global conflict as an excuse to relitigate it, so if the federal government looks weak in the face of armed force, that might also compromise its ability to maintain internal order.
That's why I imagined that Switzerland would deliver an ultimatum to the French and Austrians - it would be politically untenable to deliver one to the Pope, much less to threaten war against him, so the ultimatum would go to his allies. At that point, all parties would be caught in a political bind: France and Austria would want to conciliate, but wouldn't be able to offer any conditions the Swiss could accept, and Switzerland, having issued an ultimatum, couldn't back off without appearing weak. So - at least as I had envisioned it - everyone ended up in a war that no one really wanted.
Upon further thought, though, I tend to agree that the escalation would be slower - as you and galileo034 have mentioned, a FAR blockade would have drastic enough consequences to make Switzerland think twice even when provoked. Maybe what would happen instead was that the Swiss government would condemn the attack, order a partial mobilization along the border and summon the French and Austrian ambassadors. Negotiations would commence, but they would be hampered by each side's political constraints. In the meantime, the Swiss government would shift toward a pro-BOG neutrality: it would open the border for trade with the Italians in Milan, stop conciliating the ultramontane-ruled cantons, maybe even step in to force a unity government and free elections in Ticino.
That would carry things through the winter of 1895-96, but the situation would remain fragile: there would be pro-FAR secession movements in some of the more conservative cantons, the Papal Legion might commit more provocations, and the Swiss would no doubt claim the right to pursue invading legionnaires into FAR-held Italian territory. Any or all of those things could eventually pull Switzerland into the war, and would certainly cause the federal government to move in a pro-BOG direction, but would be unlikely to lead to formal belligerence before the late spring or summer of '96.
Does that retcon suit everyone? Flashy would still accomplish his mission (after a fashion, of course, but he never does anything else), and nothing about the last update would have to change except the final footnote.
Remember, though, that the offensive into Sudetenland was premature, and that the North Germans pulled enough men and materials from other fronts to support it that they almost collapsed when confronted with French and Russian offensives that fall. The British and North Germans have now reached the level of readiness they should have had before mounting such an ambitious offensive. So while they're definitely mounting an offensive in southern Germany, and while the conditions now favor them, they wouldn't have overwhelming superiority.
In any event, given the retcon I've proposed re Switzerland, the French and Austrians will be in a somewhat better position vis-a-vis their support troops.
Correct. Anywhere Flashman appears, you can assume that the account is fictionalized, but that the historical events described in the story actually happened and that the details are roughly accurate (albeit filtered through the lens of a nineteenth-century bigot and cad).
You're entirely correct about Switzerland's internal situation and the political ramifications of the incident. The Swiss government was anxious to avoid both external and internal conflict, and also to preserve its constitutional structure, so it was at pains to support the cantonal governments (as it did during the OTL Ticino revolt, which was motivated by roughly the same electoral crisis), to police the border, and to prevent Italy from establishing a military presence on Swiss soil. The policing was, as you suggest, done with a wink and a nod - the army made sure the smugglers/radicals knew they were coming, and those foolish enough to get caught faced short prison sentences at worst - but the federal government's attitude was still one of friendly neutrality toward both the BOGs and the FARs.
Then, the Ticino Incident happens.
The Pope probably could end the matter right there with an apology and a promise of reparations, and there would certainly be ministers in the exiled Curia telling him to do just that. Unfortunately, he's been radicalized by being driven out of Rome, and he has a major blind spot where Italians are concerned - after all, they're the anticlerical bastards who booted him out of the Vatican! So rather than apologize at once, he hems and haws, and the more time that passes, the worse the situation gets.
Also, given that the Papal Legion is a recently-formed polyglot volunteer army without established traditions or institutions, it almost has to have a loose command structure. Many of the officers, especially the company-grade ones, are ultramontanes who bring their political and religious views to the battlefield, and they won't react well to orders that go against those views. The Pope may be supreme commander, but he can't say "lay off Ticino" with any guarantee that his orders would be obeyed, and if he tried to enforce those orders, he might lose soldiers to desertion.
In the meantime, the Swiss have at least two factors pushing them toward a tough stance. First, while neutrality is valuable to Switzerland, its ability to maintain that neutrality depends on its neighbors seeing it as a country not to be messed with. If the Swiss army lets a foreign military force invade its territory, kill its soldiers and claim the right to control the border without responding forcefully, then its defensive deterrence will be compromised. This is more or less the point Falecius made. Second, the Sonderbund war wasn't that long ago, and some of the ultramontanes might want to use the global conflict as an excuse to relitigate it, so if the federal government looks weak in the face of armed force, that might also compromise its ability to maintain internal order.
That's why I imagined that Switzerland would deliver an ultimatum to the French and Austrians - it would be politically untenable to deliver one to the Pope, much less to threaten war against him, so the ultimatum would go to his allies. At that point, all parties would be caught in a political bind: France and Austria would want to conciliate, but wouldn't be able to offer any conditions the Swiss could accept, and Switzerland, having issued an ultimatum, couldn't back off without appearing weak. So - at least as I had envisioned it - everyone ended up in a war that no one really wanted.
Upon further thought, though, I tend to agree that the escalation would be slower - as you and galileo034 have mentioned, a FAR blockade would have drastic enough consequences to make Switzerland think twice even when provoked. Maybe what would happen instead was that the Swiss government would condemn the attack, order a partial mobilization along the border and summon the French and Austrian ambassadors. Negotiations would commence, but they would be hampered by each side's political constraints. In the meantime, the Swiss government would shift toward a pro-BOG neutrality: it would open the border for trade with the Italians in Milan, stop conciliating the ultramontane-ruled cantons, maybe even step in to force a unity government and free elections in Ticino.
That would carry things through the winter of 1895-96, but the situation would remain fragile: there would be pro-FAR secession movements in some of the more conservative cantons, the Papal Legion might commit more provocations, and the Swiss would no doubt claim the right to pursue invading legionnaires into FAR-held Italian territory. Any or all of those things could eventually pull Switzerland into the war, and would certainly cause the federal government to move in a pro-BOG direction, but would be unlikely to lead to formal belligerence before the late spring or summer of '96.
Does that retcon suit everyone? Flashy would still accomplish his mission (after a fashion, of course, but he never does anything else), and nothing about the last update would have to change except the final footnote.
Remember, though, that the offensive into Sudetenland was premature, and that the North Germans pulled enough men and materials from other fronts to support it that they almost collapsed when confronted with French and Russian offensives that fall. The British and North Germans have now reached the level of readiness they should have had before mounting such an ambitious offensive. So while they're definitely mounting an offensive in southern Germany, and while the conditions now favor them, they wouldn't have overwhelming superiority.
In any event, given the retcon I've proposed re Switzerland, the French and Austrians will be in a somewhat better position vis-a-vis their support troops.
I still feel bad, pushing you into it. It's good though--unless you really really wanted a Swiss civil war.
Since I think the BOGs will win, sort of, and will at any rate be in some position to uphold their Swiss allies at the peace, even if a civil war left the FARs strong in some cantons, they'd have to withdraw anyway. Conceivably, after enough bad blood (spilt!) some cantons might stay out of the Confederation--but again, if the BOGs have any degree of the upper hand, they won't because they'd hardly want to reward France, or whatever becomes of Austria, with lands, even if those lands have a solid majority that prefers to get out of the Confederation and into one of those countries instead. The Italian cantons won't have anyplace to go because Italy, however battered, will at the very least be restored to status quo ante and a liberal government.
Even in the event of civil war, I suppose when the dust settles at last, the Swiss borders will be the same--perhaps not the Constitution though. If the pro-BOG parts served the alliance creditably enough (and just standing up to the FAR powers at last is quite a lot of service, even if they were to go under shortly after) they might even get little bits of France or Austria added on--if the people living there wanted a change of regime anyway.
I obviously don't believe the Swiss would pose too daunting a challenge to the FAR forces--not if Switzerland were in civil turmoil, and anyway they wouldn't if those forces weren't already overstretched trying to hold North German and Italian territory while maintaining an "allied" occupation of Bavaria and a more restrained but still galling presence in the other south German principalties, and while the Austrians are fighting on the Ottoman border at the same time too.
I'm just mindful that either Napoleon or even prior French Republican generals were able to conquer and more or less control Switzerland, renamed by them "The Helvetican Republic," until Nappy himself fell from power. I'm also mindful it wasn't always an easy occupation--but the point is, the French Republican/Imperial Grand Army made short work of the regular military. Either a FAR occupation or more likely, a civil war, would raise the question of whether the Confederacy would be viable post-war.
However--if per the new retcon the process of hardening the nation's pro-BOG stance is somewhat gradual; if the ultramontanes are embarrassed and discredited so that the most hostile to the BOG cause find it prudent to just keep their mouths shut and shun the war effort as much as they can get away with, and others change sides as the threat to Swiss sovereignty and freedom becomes more visible and stark--then I suppose that the flip side of delaying the formal entry into the war is that it is less likely the country will flare up in civil war. There surely would be some ugly things going on, and perhaps some border cantons will surrender to French or Austrian occupation with undue haste, before Federals can arrive to reinforce them. But Swiss patriotism would on the whole be stronger and her forces will fight firmly and without ambivalence.
If France were free to give undivided attention to the project of breaking the Swiss army and again occupying the country, I imagine they could do it, though the cost might be out of proportion to the size of the Swiss army. I'm not so sure Austria could, even as a single-minded project As things are though, neither can spare nearly as much as they might want to do the job quickly, and if the Swiss aren't crippled by lack of supplies they might hold off invaders for quite some time. And time is something the FARs will be running short of.
Even if they avoid civil war, the Swiss will surely suffer. I'd be glad to see them spared secessionism and civil war on top of that.
Bern could even be the first to finally declare war--if the provocations continue and continue escalating infamously enough.
While I don't believe either Swiss or Bavarians will want Bavaria to join the Swiss Confederacy, I do think that if the tide turns against the FARs enough that the Swiss can spare men from merely defending the boundaries, then they can break out into Bavaria, with the help of the local insurgency against the Wittelsbachs, and make it too hot for Franco-Austrian forces to stay there. That would put Switzerland in contact with North Germany.
Since I think the BOGs will win, sort of, and will at any rate be in some position to uphold their Swiss allies at the peace, even if a civil war left the FARs strong in some cantons, they'd have to withdraw anyway. Conceivably, after enough bad blood (spilt!
) some cantons might stay out of the Confederation--but again, if the BOGs have any degree of the upper hand, they won't because they'd hardly want to reward France, or whatever becomes of Austria, with lands, even if those lands have a solid majority that prefers to get out of the Confederation and into one of those countries instead. The Italian cantons won't have anyplace to go because Italy, however battered, will at the very least be restored to status quo ante and a liberal government.Even in the event of civil war, I suppose when the dust settles at last, the Swiss borders will be the same--perhaps not the Constitution though. If the pro-BOG parts served the alliance creditably enough (and just standing up to the FAR powers at last is quite a lot of service, even if they were to go under shortly after) they might even get little bits of France or Austria added on--if the people living there wanted a change of regime anyway.
I obviously don't believe the Swiss would pose too daunting a challenge to the FAR forces--not if Switzerland were in civil turmoil, and anyway they wouldn't if those forces weren't already overstretched trying to hold North German and Italian territory while maintaining an "allied" occupation of Bavaria and a more restrained but still galling presence in the other south German principalties, and while the Austrians are fighting on the Ottoman border at the same time too.
I'm just mindful that either Napoleon or even prior French Republican generals were able to conquer and more or less control Switzerland, renamed by them "The Helvetican Republic," until Nappy himself fell from power. I'm also mindful it wasn't always an easy occupation--but the point is, the French Republican/Imperial Grand Army made short work of the regular military. Either a FAR occupation or more likely, a civil war, would raise the question of whether the Confederacy would be viable post-war.
However--if per the new retcon the process of hardening the nation's pro-BOG stance is somewhat gradual; if the ultramontanes are embarrassed and discredited so that the most hostile to the BOG cause find it prudent to just keep their mouths shut and shun the war effort as much as they can get away with, and others change sides as the threat to Swiss sovereignty and freedom becomes more visible and stark--then I suppose that the flip side of delaying the formal entry into the war is that it is less likely the country will flare up in civil war. There surely would be some ugly things going on, and perhaps some border cantons will surrender to French or Austrian occupation with undue haste, before Federals can arrive to reinforce them. But Swiss patriotism would on the whole be stronger and her forces will fight firmly and without ambivalence.
If France were free to give undivided attention to the project of breaking the Swiss army and again occupying the country, I imagine they could do it, though the cost might be out of proportion to the size of the Swiss army. I'm not so sure Austria could, even as a single-minded project As things are though, neither can spare nearly as much as they might want to do the job quickly, and if the Swiss aren't crippled by lack of supplies they might hold off invaders for quite some time. And time is something the FARs will be running short of.
Even if they avoid civil war, the Swiss will surely suffer. I'd be glad to see them spared secessionism and civil war on top of that.
Bern could even be the first to finally declare war--if the provocations continue and continue escalating infamously enough.
While I don't believe either Swiss or Bavarians will want Bavaria to join the Swiss Confederacy, I do think that if the tide turns against the FARs enough that the Swiss can spare men from merely defending the boundaries, then they can break out into Bavaria, with the help of the local insurgency against the Wittelsbachs, and make it too hot for Franco-Austrian forces to stay there. That would put Switzerland in contact with North Germany.