Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72

[vultan]

Two minor, microscopic little nitpicks Drew, in your list of Republican candidates.

First, in one of your updates set just prior to the 1978 midterms, you said John Ashbrook was going to run for the Republican nomination. Shouldn't he be on the list? Did he pull out?

Second, since you had Howard Baker lose reelection in the midterms (which is too bad, since he's a real nice guy) shouldn't he be listed as a former Senator, similar to Strom Thurmond?

 

[teg]

Mmm, I get that the French and British have good reasons to oppose a successful Basque secession, but at some point they have to give in or look like they're putting down the democratic will of the people, right?

Although I'd expect the Europeans to ask for a plebiscite with long deadlines and a heavily pushed option for federalism.

I don't think the British have too much to worry about (don't know enough about French minorities to comment), especially if Scotland and Wales get early devolution (which they might since this is a Labour government and NI doesn't look much worse than OTL). Also, Britain isn't a fascist style dictatorship that is brutally oppressing the Scots or Welsh. Northern Ireland itself might be a worry though if that is what you mean.

Actually no, they don't.

Dismissive one-sentence assertions of your own obvious correctness aren't going to convince anyone.

The Basques have successfully revolted against a dictatorship.They hold their territory with boots on the ground. Are the Euros going to force them to return to Spain? Sure, they'll try to push a federal settlement, but if the Basques insist on independence, then what the hell is France going to do about it? There's zero political will in Europe for another armed intervention.

I really wouldn't bother responding to the Dr, Fleetlord, life is far too short.

teg

 

[John Farson]

Ok, if shit is going to hit the fan on the french side of Basque Country, then we are talking about this group: Iparretarrak
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iparretarrak



Considering comrade Drew talent for dystopia, I'm quite sure Iparretarak and ETA are going to benefit from some blunder by the french government , a blunder that will unite them.

A lots depends from who whin the french presidential election of 1981.

Oh, and Drew, if you really want to doom France like you doomed much of that poor world, I suggest you to try a President Charles Pasqua in the future. Pasqua is good mixture of Agnew and Cheney, the kind of guy to have the Front National join his government. A Le Pen - Pasqua tandem would be very dystopian, very fitting to this TL mood.

I don't see the French Basques having much reason to revolt against the government, to be honest. Neither the Socialists nor Gaullists are Fascists (duh), and if Miterrand is re-elected in 1981 he certainly won't be doing anything stupid to piss them off. Demands for more autonomy and language rights? Sure, I can see that, but they can achieve that far easier through political means. Same thing with Corsica. I see France as being much like Britain with regards to the regional minorities.

And France's danger period was in the early 1960s, during the Algeria crisis. I think by this time there is very little danger of outright nutcases taking power in France.

 

[eschaton]

One thing I wonder is if the destruction of China will cause a resurrection of the Manchu identity and language.

Sure, it was almost dead at this time as a living language, and I'm sure the Lesser Mao will kill as many as possible. But I think unlike OTL, the surviving Manchu will do everything they can to assert, post-chaos, they are not Chinese, even if it involves their children growing up speaking an alien language.

 

[Archibald]

And France's danger period was in the early 1960s, during the Algeria crisis. I think by this time there is very little danger of outright nutcases taking power in France.

Nope, I'm not talking about a military whacko. Look at Pasqua pedigree
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Pasqua
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Pasqua

• Affaires politico-financières
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• 4 Autres affaires

 

[Cylon_Number_14]

Just to be the devil's advocate, I'll note that demographic studies (no actual censuses exist, of course) indicate that the population of Somalia actually grew a bit during the worst of the chaos (the 90s). Also, in poor countries kids are a labor source for their parents from about 6, and the only hope that their parents have for aid in their old age in the absence of any social services whatsoever. So I am somewhat uncertain about how large the decline is likely to be after the Lesser Mao's death, although social breakdown may lead to some pretty darn spectacular famines in areas of low normal agricultural productivity.

Bruce

I was going to bring up the same thing. It seems almost counter-intuitive to us living in a highly urbanize, stable, technological society to have kids in bad circumstances, but all over the real-life world it's been made clear that exactly the opposite is true. Afghanistan also had one of the fastest growing populations post-1979 OTL and the worst parts of West Africa still have high fecundity despite lack of infrastructure and the AIDS pandemic.

... but perhaps in China there was widespread use of sex-segregated "reeducation camps" that kept huge portions of the younger adults separated from each other so that they couldn't mate? Also, if heroine addiction is extremely widespread between 1975 and 1985 (like passed out almost freely by the government?), there could be horrific rates of birth defects that reduce the fecundity of the following generation...

 

[Cylon_Number_14]

On a lighter note, I was pleasantly excited by some of the ballot measures in place for 1980.

I hope that the ones restricting ballot access for minor parties go down in flames. But I hope the various run-off ones succeed because they would encourage minor-party voters by reducing accusations of spoiling the vote.

I see the Libertarians are working at reshaping Idaho into their image trying to make a minarchist "night-watchman state."

(I'm pretty sure that radical ammendments and ballots similar to those mentioned show up fairly often OTL to the present so I took those more as light-hearted humor)

 

[teg]

... but perhaps in China there was widespread use of sex-segregated "reeducation camps" that kept huge portions of the younger adults separated from each other so that they couldn't mate? Also, if heroine addiction is extremely widespread between 1975 and 1985 (like passed out almost freely by the government?), there could be horrific rates of birth defects that reduce the fecundity of the following generation...

I think that the government has banned Chinese people taking heroin and it is a serious offence. Given the hell that China has descended into however, I would reckon that there are an increasing number of people willing to run the risk however.

If China is suffering from mass birth defects, then that is going to cause real problems for the country, which will take generations to go away. That could prevent China from ever fully recovering from the Lesser Mao in a very grotesque way...

The effect of India and China's collapse on the global balance of power will be interesting. The USA and the USSR will be the dominant powers for much longer and it is conceivable that Brazil/Indonesia/South Africa will catch up or Europe will unite (even ITTL) before the Chinese or Indians get back on there feet (particuarly if China is suffering a brith defect crisis)

 

[Thande]

It occurred to me that the Lesser Mao could also be considered the reincarnation of Zhang Xianzhong.

China in TTL has definitely been cursed with utterly abysmal luck, when you look at these events:

1) 1st Opium War: 1839-1842

2) Taiping Rebellion: 1850-1864. c. 20,000,000 dead, weakening of the Qing Dynasty.

3) 2nd Opium War: 1856-1860 (during the Taiping Rebellion).

4) Panthay Rebellion: 1856-1873. Up to a million deaths.

5) Dungan Revolt: 1862-1877. 8,000,000-12,000,000 dead.

1864-1912: Gradual decline of the Qing Dynasty, including the 1894-1895 Sino-Japanese War and the 1900 Boxer Rebellion.

6) 1912-1916: Yuan Shikai's dictatorship.

7) 1916-1928: Warlord era.

8) 1927-1936: Chinese Civil War. 2,000,000 dead.

9) 1937-1945: 2nd Sino-Japanese War. 20,000,000-35,000,000 dead

10) 1945-1949: Chinese Civil War. 1-3 million dead.

11) 1949-1975: Mao Zedong regime. 100 million dead.

12) 1975-1982: Mao "Lesser Mao" Yuanxin regime. 200 million+ dead.

13) 1982-2000: The geographical region formerly known as the People's Republic of China. Millions of more dead. Hell on Earth.

China is clearly the most wretched country in history TTL. Since about 1840 or so they've been continuously shat upon, whether it be bloodthirsty despots, bloodthirsty invaders, civil war, poverty, famine, corruption or avaricious imperialists, without ever getting a break, with no end in sight.

Thinking about this post a bit more, it occurs to me that in TTL China might take on some of the qualities in the Western imagination that Africa has in OTL: an ungovernable disease-ridden hellhole that may have had a stable advanced native civilisation once, but it was so long ago that you might as well be talking ancient history.

If China does take that place, Africa might be viewed more positively, even if things there are objectively no better than OTL.

 

[John Farson]

Thinking about this post a bit more, it occurs to me that in TTL China might take on some of the qualities in the Western imagination that Africa has in OTL: an ungovernable disease-ridden hellhole that may have had a stable advanced native civilisation once, but it was so long ago that you might as well be talking ancient history.

If China does take that place, Africa might be viewed more positively, even if things there are objectively no better than OTL.

And in some areas possibly worse than OTL, depending on how Southern Africa goes. So far, the Rhodesian War has already enveloped Angola, Zambia, Mozambique, Botswana and South Africa.

 

[Garrison]

Having finally caught up with the this thread I just want to add my appreciation of the hard work and and attention to detail that's gone into it. It's absorbing and engrossing, though I'm not sure you can call it fun...

 

[General Tirpitz]

I hope you are wrong about Chomsky and/or Davis, I would like to think that they both have the self-respect and integrity not to write a book like that. Sadly, I fear you are bang on target with regards to both of them (although I only really know Chomsky's writing)

Didn't Chomsky basically do the same thing IOTL with the Khmer Rouge?

 

[Garrison]

There will always be people who will hold onto their beliefs at all costs; however much rewriting of reality it takes, just look at the OTL 9-11 'No Planers' as an example.

Oh dear, I just started thinking about 9-11, if it has a parallel ITTL it'll probably be nuclear...

 

[Dunois]

Great update as always Drew!

The Basques are going to get a state out of this, which will have other effects.

I must say that I am rather skeptical of the Basque insurrection thing, since while the ETA was active during the seventies, it certainly did not have the strength nor crucially the support from the population to embark on an insurrection of this magnitude.

There are roughly 300km of mountainous terrain to cross between the Portuguese border and the borders of the Basque Country, crossing that distance in less than a month is certainly possible. But frankly I doubt that the poorly mechanised and poorly armoured Portuguese Army will be able to do this, especially since Franco Spain had invested in a rather good army and tank corps.

It is also worth remembering that the Franco regime mellowed greatly during the sixties and seventies and Basque and Catalan were largely tolerated. Unless the generals coming after Franco have really done a huge mess of things, for fear of "leftist contamination". I can't see these policies changing.

Now if the Basques do happen to secure their independence by armed force, Europe is going to have a huge mess on her hands and potentially even some form of ethnic cleansing as well. The reason for that is rather simple, a sizeable minority of the Basque country denizens (a third) trace their ancestry from other parts of Spain, don't speak Basque and won't feel any kind of loyalty towards the Basque state. Either way I think that some kind of deep troubles are almost guaranteed to happen there with Spanish loyalists in the Basque Country and Catalonia; this will especially be the case if Navarra is integrated into the Basque Country.

Something like this will scare the shit out of the French government, especially with Mitterand in power since he was a decisive president able to make difficult decisions. I would expect ETA terrorism in France to be clamped down very hard, especially if the newly founded Basque state decides to "export" its revolution and message over.

OTL Spain was able to "tie the threads" rather nicely with regards to her own turbulent past history, with the monarchy acting as some kind of keeper of this compromise between the right and the left. It is now looking increasingly likely that this won't happen TTL and honestly with Basque indepence, we are looking at a very unstable Spain for the remainder of the 20th century. The far right will be vindicated in a way (the traitors lost us the Basque Country) and the far left emboldened by its success. If economic modernisation is stopped, or even god forbid set back by a left leaning government, Spain can kiss goodbye to EEC membership and all the benefits it entails.
I suppose that the silver lining there will be Spanish trawlers unable to plunder the British and Irish territorial waters through the CFP ...

 

[Plumber]

So about those Evangelical amendments, do they represent a conscious snub to Mormonism or was it just zeal in attempting to exclude Muslims that caused an oversight?

Sorry to pester, but I think it's a potentially important development.

The Christian Values Movement seems to be the Southern Evangelical Right basically. So both!

I was going to bring up the same thing. It seems almost counter-intuitive to us living in a highly urbanize, stable, technological society to have kids in bad circumstances, but all over the real-life world it's been made clear that exactly the opposite is true. Afghanistan also had one of the fastest growing populations post-1979 OTL and the worst parts of West Africa still have high fecundity despite lack of infrastructure and the AIDS pandemic.

... but perhaps in China there was widespread use of sex-segregated "reeducation camps" that kept huge portions of the younger adults separated from each other so that they couldn't mate? Also, if heroine addiction is extremely widespread between 1975 and 1985 (like passed out almost freely by the government?), there could be horrific rates of birth defects that reduce the fecundity of the following generation...

I agree. Chinese birthrates are going to skyrocket. Of course there could be birth defects galore...

The effect of India and China's collapse on the global balance of power will be interesting. The USA and the USSR will be the dominant powers for much longer and it is conceivable that Brazil/Indonesia/South Africa will catch up or Europe will unite (even ITTL) before the Chinese or Indians get back on there feet (particuarly if China is suffering a brith defect crisis)

Hmm. We haven't really heard from Brazil or Indonesia at all.

Didn't Chomsky basically do the same thing IOTL with the Khmer Rouge?

Yes.

Oh dear, I just started thinking about 9-11, if it has a parallel ITTL it'll probably be nuclear...

The Bicentennial Sarin Gas Attacks already happened.

 

[Fleetlord]

It is also worth remembering that the Franco regime mellowed greatly during the sixties and seventies and Basque and Catalan were largely tolerated. Unless the generals coming after Franco have really done a huge mess of things, for fear of "leftist contamination". I can't see these policies changing.

I kinda got the impression that's what happened, though -- I thought the reason Portugal did abnormally well in the war was because the post-Franco regime was going increasingly bugfuck, and the house was already rotting when Portugal kicked the door in. But I agree that this could use more backstory/development.

Something like this will scare the shit out of the French government, especially with Mitterand in power since he was a decisive president able to make difficult decisions. I would expect ETA terrorism in France to be clamped down very hard, especially if the newly founded Basque state decides to "export" its revolution and message over.

If *Euskadi has as rocky a start as people think, it may actually kill off French Basque separatism -- normal people would rather be part of a prosperous, democratic state than a quasi-third world trouble spot, and the fanatics will cross the border to fight for the revolution.

 

[Nanwe]

I would expect ETA terrorism in France to be clamped down very hard, especially if the newly founded Basque state decides to "export" its revolution and message over.

The problem is, in any indepepdent Basque Country, there'd be a total polarization of politics, the PNV is a Carlist/reactionary right-wing party whiel ETA and supporters are marxists, so an independent Basque Country woul dhave too many social infighting between Spanish loyalists, PNV and Batasuna to export anything anywhere.

 

[teg]

BTW Drew, if you are going to make a sequel timeline to this one, would you consider releasing Fear, Loathing and Gumbo as a complete timeline on Finished Timelines? It would make it a lot easier to read.

Also, the horror you are depicting in China is truly shocking and I felt actually quite disturbed by it. (And I'm not surprised at all that that film director went mad effectively)

teg

 

[King Henry]

Yes.

Well, there goes any respect I had for the guy or anyone who listens to him.

But yeah, I just finished writing a paper on the Khmer Rouge, so the situation on China is extra disturbing with all the nice images in my head to associate with it...

I'm also interested in what's happening in Indonesia and Brazil. Hopefully they're doing okay, at least by TTL standards.
​

 

[Drew]

If you don't mind me asking, how old are you?

Old enough to have seen the "evil empire" in action and to have watched Apollo 11 and Watergate when they were first run television. I was four when I watched the Soviet Army enter Prague from my living room window.