Dominion of Southern America - Updated July 1, 2018

[Sovereign12]

If anything, post-Napoleonic war between France and Britain seems less likely ITTL than it did IOTL.

That said, I can't see a German/French/British alliance lasting forever. Someone is going to have to be on the outs.

For my money I would see the French falling out. Germany is still pretty new at being a national state and aren't competition for the British, since they lack colonies at this time. With things in Europe quieting down I would see the French starting to look outside of Europe again. Colonies, trade, and resources are going to be sought after. With such a big colony (Australia) they will want to extend their power to protect it. The Russians, Austrians, and Prussians are not out of the game, they are justed taking a breather.

I could see Russia, Austria, and Prussia eventually going after the Ottomans. The Prussians and Austrians would want African colonies to compete with the British, French, and Dutch. Maybe the Greeks enter into this alliance to get the Ottomans off their back. Would the French, British, and Germans come to the Ottomans defense like similar nations did OTL during the Crimean War? With the addition of Prussia, Austria, and possibly the Greeks; the other European powers may not want a repeat of the Liberal War. Depending on when and if this did occur the French may side with them to gobble up Ottoman North African territory (or not join but move into the territory as a "protective intitative".).

 

[Arachnid]

I doubt you would see the Austrians trying to get colonies overseas. As a general rule they channelled their settlement and expansionists urges towards the Balkans and the Ottomans rather than outside Europe. That said odder things have happened.

 

[eschaton]

For my money I would see the French falling out. Germany is still pretty new at being a national state and aren't competition for the British, since they lack colonies at this time. With things in Europe quieting down I would see the French starting to look outside of Europe again. Colonies, trade, and resources are going to be sought after. With such a big colony (Australia) they will want to extend their power to protect it. The Russians, Austrians, and Prussians are not out of the game, they are justed taking a breather.

I could see Russia, Austria, and Prussia eventually going after the Ottomans. The Prussians and Austrians would want African colonies to compete with the British, French, and Dutch. Maybe the Greeks enter into this alliance to get the Ottomans off their back. Would the French, British, and Germans come to the Ottomans defense like similar nations did OTL during the Crimean War? With the addition of Prussia, Austria, and possibly the Greeks; the other European powers may not want a repeat of the Liberal War. Depending on when and if this did occur the French may side with them to gobble up Ottoman North African territory (or not join but move into the territory as a "protective intitative".).

Prussia is a second-rate power at best, and a dead man walking at worst. It lost all of the best resources for Industrialization outside of Silesia. Its population is now probably half Polish. The best it can hope for is it will become a slightly larger Belgium, where two groups stay wedded together despite huge differences. I think it will most likely be an appendage of Austria until they too fall apart. They might grab a single colony, but no more, and it will probably be something in Africa which doesn't seriously challenge the sphere of interest of the real powers.

 

[stevep]

Julius Vogel

I'm not sure about both those points. There was a lot of wealth in Britain but also a lot of poor people while the dominions had considerable resources.

Also the battle-fleets and the infrastructure that constructed and maintained them did serve a big role for the dominions in keeping the trade routes open. It was the threat of the battle fleets that was a big diplomatic tool in maintaining peace. Also, before Germany became the focus of British attention a lot of the large cruisers and battleships were based around the world.

Steve

You might well be right on the defence spending per head point - it sounds like it would be right.

However, I do think that this does make sense for quite a couple of reasons

1. The per capita income of the colonies was often less than the British equivalent

2. The really expensive items of Imperial defence - the battle fleet, was largely of use for Home Waters, the Med and E Asia, in that order. The colonies of SA, Australia and NZ would have no real interest in the former, so why should they pay extra for this? Their interest would be keeping the sea lanes open - so maintenance of the cruiser fleet and naval stations to Europe.

Maybe Canada would have a real, near interest in paying for the battle fleet - although the western provinces not so much

 

[stevep]

Prussia is a second-rate power at best, and a dead man walking at worst. It lost all of the best resources for Industrialization outside of Silesia. Its population is now probably half Polish. The best it can hope for is it will become a slightly larger Belgium, where two groups stay wedded together despite huge differences. I think it will most likely be an appendage of Austria until they too fall apart. They might grab a single colony, but no more, and it will probably be something in Africa which doesn't seriously challenge the sphere of interest of the real powers.

eschaton

I would agree that it's very much in a corner now. Can't remember if it has any of Saxony but if not it's got Silesia and a lot of fairly moderate agricultural land and a probably pretty autocratic system. [May be more so than OTL as the more liberal areas have been lost and the junkers will probably be extremely hostile to any spreading of power, fearing a desire to join Germany - which of course makes such desires even more likely. The high proportion of Poles in the state will also cause tension.

I don't think they will have the desire or resources for any territorial gains outside Europe, especially given that such colonies will be vulnerable to nations with a more powerful navy, which will be most major or moderate powers I suspect.

Steve

 

[Falastur]

For my money I would see the French falling out. Germany is still pretty new at being a national state and aren't competition for the British, since they lack colonies at this time.

Not to mention that Germany doesn't contain Prussia/Brandenburg in TTL. This means no leadership by a state obsessed with building itself up into a world leader, no leadership by a state with a "army with a country, not a country with an army" reputation, no strong conservative bent from the Junkers (not to mention that the entire country of "Germany" TTL is a result of the republican revolutions, so conservative is hardly a worse you could ever use for them. This Germany is likely to be a mixture of nervous and cocksure on the world stage, believing itself capable of anything right up until the point where it needs to do it, where it will probably get the willies and chicken out. Its large lack of former major states mean that even its greatest statesmen will be inexperienced and likely prone to being influenced or manipulated, or just plain tricked into believing heavy lies. Their army is going to take a long time to organise. This Germany is not a state to be feared in the way that OTL's Germany was, and it's not likely to be one pressing fervently for prestige and power like the Prussians did.

It will be interesting to see what does happen to Prussia. Given that they've just lost the Rhineland, their economic strength is forever broken, and as highlighted before they now will have an inferiority complex just from the way that the Poles in their land will almost outnumber the Germans. It does, however, still have its military tradition. If in the near future Austria comes to blows with the UK it's possible that the Prussians could join the conflict of their own accord on the British side and become heavily dependent on British subsidies - without the ability to fund themselves their ability to so much as really even have a foreign policy is virtually nil now, so they're unlikely to wage a war without British funding now unless their opponent is already looking likely to lose. In such a situation it's not impossible that Prussia could eventually fall into the position of essentially being a British puppet on the continent. Without financial support from a state - which really only Britain can afford to give - they must otherwise choose one of two paths. Either they swallow their pride and become isolationist to protect their own existence, while silently acting to remove the future threat of a second revolution washing over them from within, which would result in their annexation to Germany, or they can choose to go out in style, acting dignified and strong but eventually destined to be overwhelmed as Poland was when it was divided, and to eventually be annexed/turned into a client state by either Germany, Austria or Russia. Either way, in the age of big states, their continued existence is now under threat.

 

[Sovereign12]

Well the Prussians could always use the fear of Russia on the Poles. Basically saying if you don't work with us, then Russia might step in and take over all of us.

I cannot see Prussia joining with the British. I think the nobility and military just couldn't allow themselves to do so; they would find it too degrading. The same with joining with Germany, who they would see as upstarts.

While I think it unlikely with the mindset of the Prussian nobles, merging with Austria would strengthen their position in Europe, especially if Austria has internal troubles as in OTL that forced the formation of Austria-Hungary. With neither Prussia or Austria having influence over TTL's Germany both will have greater internal tensions. The possibility of a Triple Monarchy of Austria, Prussia, and Hungary would also show Russia that they are not to be bullied. Plus it would give this Triple Monarchy ports on the Baltic and the Mediterranean Seas. I'm not sure the two dynasties, Habsburg and Hohenzollern, would incorporate well together though. It would probably fall apart after about a decade of struggle.

 

[Falastur]

Well the Prussians could always use the fear of Russia on the Poles. Basically saying if you don't work with us, then Russia might step in and take over all of us.

I cannot see Prussia joining with the British. I think the nobility and military just couldn't allow themselves to do so; they would find it too degrading. The same with joining with Germany, who they would see as upstarts.

I never meant to suggest any sort of "joining" of Prussia to Britain. What I meant to suggest was that Prussia might become so dependent on British subsidies to go to war that they (slowly, over the course of a few decades) come to the point where they enter any war the British suggest they enter for the cash, and they fight to secure British strategic goals. I never meant any sort of political union, nor that the Prussian government might become subservient to London/look to it for leadership. Just that Prussia might end up aligning her foreign policy with Britain's in exchange for cash.

 

[stevep]

Not to mention that Germany doesn't contain Prussia/Brandenburg in TTL. This means no leadership by a state obsessed with building itself up into a world leader, no leadership by a state with a "army with a country, not a country with an army" reputation, no strong conservative bent from the Junkers (not to mention that the entire country of "Germany" TTL is a result of the republican revolutions, so conservative is hardly a worse you could ever use for them. This Germany is likely to be a mixture of nervous and cocksure on the world stage, believing itself capable of anything right up until the point where it needs to do it, where it will probably get the willies and chicken out. Its large lack of former major states mean that even its greatest statesmen will be inexperienced and likely prone to being influenced or manipulated, or just plain tricked into believing heavy lies. Their army is going to take a long time to organise. This Germany is not a state to be feared in the way that OTL's Germany was, and it's not likely to be one pressing fervently for prestige and power like the Prussians did.

Interesting analysis and probably largely accurate. In the longer term and with their population base and industrial potential they will be a major power in Europe and there will be the national pull on the German parts of Prussia and Austria, regardless of what the ruling elite want.

One other factor is that although Hanover provided the rallying point and probably the new royal family [if I'm remembering rightly] there will be other regional centres of power [Bavaria, Saxony possibly Westphalia]. Unless Hanover annexes large former Prussian lands it's going to be 1st amongst equals in prestige but not necessarily in power. Hence the new Germany is likely to be fairly decentralised and while a lot of the population are eager about a new state the ruling elites and regional groups will be looking to safeguard their own interests. It's not [I hope] going to become another HRE but likely to be a bit uncertain and disorganised in co-ordinated actions, both in foreign affairs and economic development and there could be clashes later on between regional and centralising interests. [Although with a Germany stuck in the centre of Europe and with potential and hostile powers all around it the centralising factors could win out for the purpose of survival].

It will be interesting to see what does happen to Prussia. Given that they've just lost the Rhineland, their economic strength is forever broken, and as highlighted before they now will have an inferiority complex just from the way that the Poles in their land will almost outnumber the Germans. It does, however, still have its military tradition. If in the near future Austria comes to blows with the UK it's possible that the Prussians could join the conflict of their own accord on the British side and become heavily dependent on British subsidies - without the ability to fund themselves their ability to so much as really even have a foreign policy is virtually nil now, so they're unlikely to wage a war without British funding now unless their opponent is already looking likely to lose. In such a situation it's not impossible that Prussia could eventually fall into the position of essentially being a British puppet on the continent. Without financial support from a state - which really only Britain can afford to give - they must otherwise choose one of two paths. Either they swallow their pride and become isolationist to protect their own existence, while silently acting to remove the future threat of a second revolution washing over them from within, which would result in their annexation to Germany, or they can choose to go out in style, acting dignified and strong but eventually destined to be overwhelmed as Poland was when it was divided, and to eventually be annexed/turned into a client state by either Germany, Austria or Russia. Either way, in the age of big states, their continued existence is now under threat.

It's possibly that Prussia could go that way but at least initially I would say Britain would prefer good relations with Germany. Also if Prussia became a satellite over clashes in Europe I would say it's more likely to be with Russia than Austria. The latter is pretty much a sated power and also have many internal problems so is unlikely to want to expand against Britain but Russia is more likely to clash with Britain in a number of ways.

Steve

 

[Falastur]

Also if Prussia became a satellite over clashes in Europe I would say it's more likely to be with Russia than Austria. The latter is pretty much a sated power and also have many internal problems so is unlikely to want to expand against Britain but Russia is more likely to clash with Britain in a number of ways.

Steve

True enough, Russia is a very likely option politically. The only thing about Russia is they don't have the reserves of cash to fund Prussia going to war...and I think in this TL, Prussia is only going to have the funds to wage war for maybe 6 months - 1 year at a time before the government runs out of money. As war develops into a faster thing in a couple of centuries, this will evolve into an inability to raise a large army in the first place - they might be stuck with an army of, say, 10-15,000 in an era when states are starting to have modern-era large armies. If Prussia becomes a Russian satellite, they will either be a satellite that gets forced into constant and total bankruptcy to continue fighting Russia's corner, or they'll be the kind of satellite which keeps dropping out of the war for financial reasons just when Russia needs them most.

 

[eschaton]

Back to Australia for a moment. I realized the British have another large pool of settlers to recruit - black southrons! Blacks in the DSA, although not slaves, will be looking for somewhere else to go, and once the transcontinental railroad is built, it will be just as easy for them to take a train to California and a boat across the Pacific. I think the British would actually prefer them over white Southrons, as they are probably super-loyal to the crown ITTL, and would be more likely to side with the government over Indians, Malays, or "Blackbirds." The DSA would probably also prefer blacks leave who are rootless and/or looking towards being upwardly mobile.

The question is, what would the British do? I could see them subsidizing boat passage. I could also see them offering free passage for black convicts in exchange for a limited labor contract (couldn't call it indentured servitude here for obvious reasons). On the most extreme end, I could see the expressed founding of a colony for black southrons somewhere around North NSW/South Queensland.

 

[stevep]

Falastur

Sorry, I was a little unclear here. I meant if Prussia became basically a British auxiliary then they [and Britain] would probably be more likely to be fighting Russia rather than Austria. Britain has conflicts with Russia from the straits to the far east but no real conflict with Austria. Also having been repelled in the west the Prussian might think their only chance of expansion would be eastwards, possibly gaining control of the Baltic provinces and either more of Poland or possibly trying to make it a subject kingdom.

I still think the problem here would be that Britain and Germany would prefer each other as allies which would rather hamper close relations between Britain and a resentful Prussia.

Steve

True enough, Russia is a very likely option politically. The only thing about Russia is they don't have the reserves of cash to fund Prussia going to war...and I think in this TL, Prussia is only going to have the funds to wage war for maybe 6 months - 1 year at a time before the government runs out of money. As war develops into a faster thing in a couple of centuries, this will evolve into an inability to raise a large army in the first place - they might be stuck with an army of, say, 10-15,000 in an era when states are starting to have modern-era large armies. If Prussia becomes a Russian satellite, they will either be a satellite that gets forced into constant and total bankruptcy to continue fighting Russia's corner, or they'll be the kind of satellite which keeps dropping out of the war for financial reasons just when Russia needs them most.

 

[Falastur]

Falastur

Sorry, I was a little unclear here. I meant if Prussia became basically a British auxiliary then they [and Britain] would probably be more likely to be fighting Russia rather than Austria. Britain has conflicts with Russia from the straits to the far east but no real conflict with Austria. Also having been repelled in the west the Prussian might think their only chance of expansion would be eastwards, possibly gaining control of the Baltic provinces and either more of Poland or possibly trying to make it a subject kingdom.

Ah, I see. My bad. True enough, though so long as France is friendly to Britain (however long that is), a war on Russia probably is the same as a war on Austria. In the after-years after the (inevitable?) fall-out between France and the UK, Austria probably becomes Britain's most likely ally anyway, so there's a chance it could amount to the same thing. I only used Austria as my primary example originally because Prussia often chose the side which was opposing Austria in a war, and this is the likely spark point if Prussia is to be dependent on war subsidies.

I still think the problem here would be that Britain and Germany would prefer each other as allies which would rather hamper close relations between Britain and a resentful Prussia.

Steve

True that. I didn't give this enough consideration, but you're right. If Prussia becomes hell-bent on opposing, or even warring, Germany then it could scupper my ideas. Of course, Germany now has the ability to really hurt, or even destroy, Prussia, so one hopes for their sake that they don't keep being too aggressive towards Germany or it could be the death of them (something Germany would no doubt like). Hopefully the Prussians would learn from a couple of bloody noses to just give up on their vendetta, or at least shelve it for another time.

 

[eschaton]

The more I think about it, I think Germany ITTL will be like the USA pre-WWI, or China in the current period - quickly developing into a huge economic power, but with comparably little interest in the world outside their own borders.

I think one could argue without Prussia's reactionary influence, and with the liberal foundations of the state, Industrialization will be earlier and progress more rapidly than IOTL. This probably means that emigration from Germany will be a goodly bit lower, both because there will be more domestic opportunities opening up, and socialists and trade unionists won't be repressed as badly.

Regardless, I see Germany inward focused for awhile - a lot of work needs to be done on consolidation of the various princedoms. By the time the economy is humming, I don't see the need for colonies - Germany's IOTL were money drains anyway, and without the Prussian sense of national pride I don't think they would be bothered, or at most have one or two.

Eventually though, they will get in another conflict with Austria, Prussia, or both. They will not instigate it, but they will assuredly win it, which will be the real introduction of Germany as a major power.

 

[Sovereign12]

The more I think about it, I think Germany ITTL will be like the USA pre-WWI, or China in the current period - quickly developing into a huge economic power, but with comparably little interest in the world outside their own borders.

I think one could argue without Prussia's reactionary influence, and with the liberal foundations of the state, Industrialization will be earlier and progress more rapidly than IOTL. This probably means that emigration from Germany will be a goodly bit lower, both because there will be more domestic opportunities opening up, and socialists and trade unionists won't be repressed as badly.

Regardless, I see Germany inward focused for awhile - a lot of work needs to be done on consolidation of the various princedoms. By the time the economy is humming, I don't see the need for colonies - Germany's IOTL were money drains anyway, and without the Prussian sense of national pride I don't think they would be bothered, or at most have one or two.

Eventually though, they will get in another conflict with Austria, Prussia, or both. They will not instigate it, but they will assuredly win it, which will be the real introduction of Germany as a major power.

Agree with you. Germany will keep close ties with Britian for defense and trade, but otherwise will keep to themselves. Prussia on the otherhand I see keeping a smouldering grudge going against Germany. Eventually I think it will lead to another war. Prussia is basically TTL Poland caught between a powerful and agressive Russia and the powerful and indifferent British and their allies. Austria is the only other country that Prussia has a similar cultural tie to and with both being defeated in the Liberal War, both would strengthen their alliance for mutual protection and perhaps a need for revenge.

Whether they form a union as I have posited previously or not, Austria and Prussia are inside a vise. Stronger military ties and an increasing of both of their militaries may form an Iron Fortress in Middle Europe. This may stir up more problems with the various ethnicities within both countries. Both countries are also going to need more resources for their militaries. Colonialism may be the only way for them to ease the tensions while getting those resources. Africa has planty of unclaimed territory at the moment for them to take. I cannot see Britian or France going to outright war to prevent them from getting colonies. Austria in OTL had smal attempts at colonialism and gave up, but TTL has had some things butterflied away which may allow them to attempt different solutions to their problems.

 

[Nugax]

On Australia, I don't really see why there will be massive differences in settlement and province forming. Despite people talking about its 'more hospitable climate', Australian soils and water problems are a real bitch.


Therefore the vast majority of early settlement will be in the wet and relatively fertile New South Wales coastline between Brisbane and Canberra's latitude. The Gold Rush will bring a massive population explosion to the South East, who will get annoyed at rule from the east coast and push for separate governance. They'll split along some sort of significant barrier, like Australia's biggest river. The distant and geographically separated South Australia and Tasmania will run themselves as well, with some minor variance in positioning the South Australia/NSW+Victoria border.


The only real question is what will happen to the north, as it could be cut off from NSW in lots of different ways depending on chance and whim.


There is absolutely no need for any silly incentive scheme that is entirely divergent from the way Britain has previously run settler colonies - Britain has buckets of people to move, and if they need some pushing subsidised travel will work perfectly well. Besides trying to make small groups of people move into the Outback is rank foolishness. There is also no need to 'secure the border' with French Australia as it is a huge flipping desert with a clearly demarcated border in the case of resource conflicts – moving people there is just making targets within easy reach – an extra thousand miles of wilderness is all the protection you need. Its extra silly considering any conflict will be decided in the Channel, and Oceania will have to bow to whatever the results of the contest there will be.


I do agree that the *Ozzies won't be venturing quite so much into the outback in exploration or transport links, when there is no point to going west and no good ports in the north its not such a smart investment.


I'd say the divisions will be most like Falasturs map – a bigger NSW due to the slow development curve with a cut off *Victoria and Northland Territory, then South Australia, Tasmania and North Island as satellite colonies.

 

[Falastur]

I agree with Nugax, except that one thing strikes me (and it affects my map, too, I'll point out) - what is the administrative capital of your Northern Territory? A bigger NSW is fine and something I can agree with, except that it leaves the Northern Territory (or whatever it might be called TTL) with literally no European settler colony at all. With no Darwin, there is no successful settlement in the north of British Australia at this point, and nor is there likely to be for another generation or two - the area is just a wasteland and is incredibly hostile in terms of lack of resources for settlers to feed on. My map also was slightly wrong as the northernmost extant settlements were just south of my Northern Territory border. I can agree with NSW being enlargened (especially I agree with your reduced number of subdivisions) except that I realise it leaves the Northern Territory with literally no settlement to govern it at all. This means that there may be literally no northern subdivision until maybe the 1870s-1890s or even later - read that as "the NT continuing to remain as part of NSW", so you end up with an epic-sized NSW for far longer than OTL. When they finally settle the north it will likely result in a NT being created roughly along Nugax's lines though, as the sheer monolithic size of NSW incorporating the NT means that the Australian government will be intending on splitting it off as soon as it can govern itself.

 

[Nugax]

Umm *Rockhampton, *Townsville and *Cairns are all in the Northland of that Map, founded in the 1850s, 1860s and 1870s respectively. *Rockhampton probably being the administrative centre. It'll have a european population in the tens of thousands well before the end of the century, just never probably getting to self ruling status. They'd want to keep it under special military law anyway to ward French and other incursions from the North.

I saw it being split off because it had no population - so NSW can concentrate on its services whilst a territorial government stewards the north.

 

[Arachnid]

That makes a lot of sense, have *Vic and *NSW and *Coastal Qld as democratic states/colonies with responsible government and standard British policy of land distribution and assisted passage which provide services to a "real" economy while *NT and *SA are military run, border provinces with a different approach based not on settling the land and maximising return, but securing access to assets before the French get there.
For example you could have self rule by elected assemblies on the eastern coast from the 1850's while the border states/territories/colonies are run by military Governors for much longer.

 

[Earl_of_Somerset]

Compromise

I think we can possibly consider this as a compromise

We have popular divisions in the south. But one Mega Territory in the North (and a smaller Brisbane territory).

Also why does everyone leave out the Capital Territory
Do you guys hate Austrailias Capital! If So for what good reason!