What work of AH is the worst offender of the butterfly effect ?

[MacCaulay]

Except that it was the Americans who emigrated to the Cape Colony who were the racists in the Draka TL. And they did enslave Europeans and Asians after conquering those territories.

And there were already Boers there for decades. I really don't think Stirling did any research. Personally, I don't think the point of those books was to make a realistic story. I think the point was just to make an anti-America.

The same as the point of Peshawar Lancers and the Stars and Stripes trilogy was to just make old timey adventure yarns, then people mistook them for attempts at serious AH.

 

[Tangerine]

That sounds distressingly logical and reasonable.

Ah, but...

The existing set of factors makes one outcome more likely than others. For example, in the Star Trek ATL, Kirk would logically be less likely to join Starfleet, since factors that would otherwise have encouraged him to (e.g. his father surviving and becoming an admiral, whatever) are absent. Furthermore he would have been unlikely to meet all his original Star Trek buddies like McCoy, Sulu, Scotty, etc. simply due to the shifting factors caused by the POD. It is possible that these things could happen, but it would be very unlikely.

On this forum, such unlikely scenarios are labelled as ASB... This isn't because they could not possibly happen naturally - anything can happen, given the right circumstances - but because they are very, very unlikely to occur without outside intervention. More picky readers of AH don't generally appreciate unlikely scenarios, since it is more skilful, original and interesting to construct likely scenarios, which are near-universally more complex and divergent.

 

[BlackWave]

Ah, but...

The existing set of factors makes one outcome more likely than others. For example, in the Star Trek ATL, Kirk would logically be less likely to join Starfleet, since factors that would otherwise have encouraged him to (e.g. his father surviving and becoming an admiral, whatever) are absent. Furthermore he would have been unlikely to meet all his original Star Trek buddies like McCoy, Sulu, Scotty, etc. simply due to the shifting factors caused by the POD. It is possible that these things could happen, but it would be very unlikely.

On this forum, such unlikely scenarios are labelled as ASB... This isn't because they could not possibly happen naturally - anything can happen, given the right circumstances - but because they are very, very unlikely to occur without outside intervention.

Unlikely, but not impossible. A situation that has a small chance of occuring has a chance nonetheless. Such things explore what happened if it got that chance.

And besides, do you really think moviegoers and Trekkies are going to give a flying fuck about butterflys in a ST movie?

 

[Petike]

Listen, I have a question :

How important is the scope of the POD ? Can it control the amount of "butterflying" in a TL ?

For instance...


POD N. 1 : A more progressive and democratic political party in the Hungarian part of Austria-Hungary wins the elections in the 1890s. Hungarianization from OTL is pretty much butterflied away and the Slavic nationalities of the Hungarian part of the monarchy are taken more seriously and equally than in OTL. The aforementioned part also becomes more industrialised and economically stronger than in OTL.

Question : This is all nice and dandy... But does it effect wider European history (including the possibility of a future WWI equivalent) in any way ? Besides the politically-minor nationalities being respected better and the respective halfs of the monarchy being somewhat more equal... I don't see too many world-shattering butterflies in there... What's your opinion ?


POD N. 2 : Woodrow Wilson is assasinated just before the start of the Versailles treaty conference.

Question : Whooo, boy... What will post-WWI Europe look like after an event like this ? Pretty damn big king-sized butterflies, I suppose... The whole 20. century could possibly turn out completely differently than in OTL. What do you think ?

 

[Tangerine]

Unlikely, but not impossible. A situation that has a small chance of occuring has a chance nonetheless. Such things explore what happened if it got that chance.

And besides, do you really think moviegoers and Trekkies are going to give a flying fuck about butterflys in a ST movie?

Of course not. I for one loved the movie. That isn't what's important here...

I'm only trying to explain the validity of the butterfly effect as a measure of the quality of a TL.

Let me explain in steps to make it easier for myself :

Let us start by assuming that the butterfly-lite TL is the one which is less likely to occur. This doesn't mean it is impossible, just unlikely. However, it being unlikely probably means its projected parts are less complex. This means the reader will see less originality, less creativity in it, and will thus not appreciate it as much.

Now, the butterfly-rich TL is the one that is more likely to occur, and the more likely its projections are, I would predict that the more 'butterflies' it takes into account. Its being likely means it is more complex, taking into account more factors, and requiring a greater degree of creativity and inventiveness from the author. The reader will see this, and appreciate it more. It makes him think and stimulates him.

Thus, a butterfly-rich TL is, by basic human standards, of a higher quality than a butterly-lite TL.

There are cases where butterfly-lite TLs are fine. In the case of Star Trek, this is because the action takes place in the far future, which we can't predict anyway. What are the differences between two future TLs to us? Furthermore we don't watch it for the perfect projection of AH events - we watch it for the action, adventure, thrills, etc.

Listen, I have a question :

How important is the scope of the POD ? Can it control the amount of "butterflying" in a TL ?

For instance...


POD N. 1 : A more progressive and democratic political party in the Hungarian part of Austria-Hungary wins the elections in the 1890s. Hungarianization from OTL is pretty much butterflied away and the Slavic nationalities of the Hungarian part of the monarchy are taken more seriously and equally than in OTL. The aforementioned part also becomes more industrialised and economically stronger than in OTL.

Question : This is all nice and dandy... But does it effect wider European history (including the possibility of a future WWI equivalent) in any way ? Besides the politically-minor nationalities being respected better and the respective halfs of the monarchy being somewhat more equal... I don't see too many world-shattering butterflies in there... What's your opinion ?


POD N. 2 : Woodrow Wilson is assasinated just before the start of the Versailles treaty conference.

Question : Whooo, boy... What will post-WWI Europe look like after an event like this ? Pretty damn big king-sized butterflies, I suppose... The whole 20. century could possibly turn out completely differently than in OTL. What do you think ?

I don't think the scope of a POD changes the amount of butterflies. It's just that a 'bigger' POD is harder to project forward and get a plausible timeline. Both of the examples you cite would cause great upheavals in terms of butterflies.

 

[trekchu]

But on the other hand, if we go with the generally accepted theory of the Multiverse, technically there could be a Universe where the cavalry in the Napolonic wars rides Unicorns or dragons with only very minor or no differences at all in other areas. The way I see it, the Butterfly effect is something that can affect things, but doesn't have to. To see the Butterfly effect as an Iron rule that has to be obeyed or else is in my opinion not the best approach.

 

[Tangerine]

An AH writer should follow the rule as far as he possibly can, because that's the best way to get a high-quality TL which people will appreciate. As you rightly point out, it is not an iron rule, just a guideline for skilful AH.

 

[trekchu]

An AH writer should follow the rule as far as he possibly can, because that's the best way to get a high-quality TL which people will appreciate. As you rightly point out, it is not an iron rule, just a guideline for skilful AH.

Not even a guideline IMO. For example in AAO, there are many butterfly effects in some areas, while there are almost none in others.

 

[Tangerine]

Well I'd say a guideline can be taken as far as the person in question wants to take it. In the case of your AAR it would be difficult to make perfect AH with the scripted events, scripted technology paths, scripted ministers, etc.

 

[trekchu]

Well I'd say a guideline can be taken as far as the person in question wants to take it. In the case of your AAR it would be difficult to make perfect AH with the scripted events, scripted technology paths, scripted ministers, etc.

True. But then again the POD is only some thirty-ish years back. I was more referring to TTLs 2009.

 

[Nymain1]

My view on the Butterfly Effect is that an author can choose two different stances really

The Butterfly heavy aproach where butterflys effect everything about the future past the POD

Example A:
Britain Declares war on somebody in 1768, and thus Carlo Buonaparte reads the newspaper for longer about the news of the front. This means he is slightly later in getting into bed that night and enjoying good times with Maria. Thus there will be a different Sperm cracking the egg... and nine months later we have a different Napoleon, and a different future, with more and more ripples out from there.

Or a butterfly light approach

Example B:
A King in south East Asia dies in the 10th Century, Local politics might get a bit affected, but will really even out in the end, and France will still have an Indochinese Colony later on.

 

[iori]

I suppose I have a middle-of-the-road view on the Butterfly affect.
On the one hand I think it should generally be followed, however on the other hand I think that we need to realize that their are some changes that are either going to have no affect or only a regional affect.


I'll provide some examples for these from stuff I've done or am working on;

Minor PoD Having Major Affect;
In the 1830's a slightly different government comes to power in France, one that spends puts a great deal of focus on transport infrastructure building.
A few years after that France gets dragged into war with Prussia who think that they'll only have to fight the exhausted French troops from the Wallonia campaign, however as France had built good transport systems more troops made it to the front much faster, thus beating the small Prussian force and eventually capturing the Rhineland.
Skip a few decades into the Future and France is now the single most powerful nation on Earth, having all but destroyed the British Empire and annexing Ireland and nearly all of its colonial holdings.
Major changes in history caused by the minor change of infrastructure improvement.

Minor PoD Having Little Affect;
A native American who was never important and never interacted with anyone important dies a month earlier.
The same funerary customs are done, he's buried in the same place and his family and friends go on with their lives as they would had he died a month later.

 

[Bill Cameron]

But on the other hand, if we go with the generally accepted theory of the Multiverse, technically there could be a Universe where the cavalry in the Napolonic wars rides Unicorns or dragons with only very minor or no differences at all in other areas.

Trekchu,

First, possible isn't the same as plausible. Possible isn't even in the same hemisphere as plausible.

Second, when you begin invoking technicalities you've lost the debate.

I can use quantum theory to calculate the possibility of my dissolving into my component subatomic particles and reassembling perfectly in a vat of Glenlivet where I'll drown in perfect contentment. Of course, this technically possible event is actually wholly implausible as the odds show it cannot take place once during the life span of the universe.

The way I see it, the Butterfly effect is something that can affect things, but doesn't have to. To see the Butterfly effect as an Iron rule that has to be obeyed or else is in my opinion not the best approach.

The Butterfly Effect always effects things. It's when we examine the level of the effect that the questions begin. The way I see it, emphasizing "possibility" over "plausibility" is just a way of being intellectually lazy. It's simply a way of avoiding the work that any real alternate history requires; This is possible and, because all things are possible, no questions need apply.

Having Napoleonic cavalry riding unicorns and dragons with no other real effects on history and claiming it's all possible is just being intellectually lazy. A truly creative person would eagerly explore the changes wrought by the butterflies the presence of unicorns and dragons engender and write an alternate history. A hack will simply bolt unicorns and dragons onto the story history as already written for them and produce a fantasy.

Alternate history is not the same thing as fantasy because alternate history emphasizes the plausible while fantasy only deals with the possible.


Bill

 

[Wolf]

But on the other hand, if we go with the generally accepted theory of the Multiverse, technically there could be a Universe where the cavalry in the Napolonic wars rides Unicorns or dragons with only very minor or no differences at all in other areas. The way I see it, the Butterfly effect is something that can affect things, but doesn't have to. To see the Butterfly effect as an Iron rule that has to be obeyed or else is in my opinion not the best approach.

I agree for the most part. I'm not one of those who thinks that the butterfly effect affects everything.

Thande's Look to the West is a good example of a moderate butterfly effect. The POD is in 1728, IIRC, but we still see Jacobin's come the the French Revolutionary Era.

 

[NHBL]

GURPS Alternate Earths

GURPS Alternate Earths 1 & 2 are filled with timelines good and bad, often with quite reasonable (if prhaps unlikely) histories. But, some of the same people are aroound generations after the POD. This strikes me as bery implausible--but the whole idea of the series is for roleplaying. Putting some of the same characters in place makes it easier to run a game. But, they can be written out without changing things--so it's, ultimately, set up as a "take it or leave it" presence of thses people.

Some of the timelines are pure ASB's, with magic or mental powers, but others are not.

 

[Wolf]

GURPS Alternate Earths 1 & 2 are filled with timelines good and bad, often with quite reasonable (if prhaps unlikely) histories. But, some of the same people are aroound generations after the POD. This strikes me as bery implausible--but the whole idea of the series is for roleplaying. Putting some of the same characters in place makes it easier to run a game. But, they can be written out without changing things--so it's, ultimately, set up as a "take it or leave it" presence of thses people.

Some of the timelines are pure ASB's, with magic or mental powers, but others are not.

There are only a handful of people from OTL I plan to use in my TL, Teddy Roosevelt being one of them, but thats only because I think Sir Theodore Roosevelt sounds awesome.

 

[Guarnasco]

The question is: does butterflies die?

I mean does the B effect has a tread beyond it get rea-absorbed by the "inertia of the events"?

I can see some wars being avoided by laking a single episode, but most won't, so do I see nations failing to gain preminence afeter a single bad decision, but some mistakes can be corrected in time...

 

[ryackov]

You should read this link.

 

[MNP]

I think he takes a similar view to Turtledove in A Different Flesh - history is fixed on a set track and things only start to change when effects of the POD itself start to interfere with them, and so for example the Americas will carry on exactly the same even if things in the Old World change radically, until contact between the two occurs.

What's wrong with that though? Yes I am fully aware that one person holding his breath for 5 seconds can change the course of existence but is it unreasonable to assume for literary purposes, it's 50/50 in terms of change/no change?

 

[Emperor Norton I]

On butterflies, this is why I created Norton's Law # 10: "There Are No Alternate Histories, Just Approximations."*

The Butterfly effect, if faithfully followed, would render the earth and society, in short time, into something wholly unrecognizable so it is neither desirable nor even possible to faithfully adhere to all the alterations and how things will actually pan out following a POD. You therefore follow butterflies as far as you can but that's only so far if you even go that far.

*Yes, my ego is that large to create my own set of laws.