What work of AH is the worst offender of the butterfly effect ?

The problem with the butterfly effect as it is usually applied is that there is a lack of understanding as to what's going to have a large effect on history and what isn't

History is many things and is viewed through many different prisms. There is an argument that individual events have little effect on the broader continuity of history, and for the most part this is a reasonable supposition. But there are points in time when a seemingly small event can change everything these historical nodes, or as we like to call them POD's are the essence of what we do here.

But not all PODs are equal. Some will change rapidly change everything, some will have no long term effect (lets call these pseudoPODs :D) and most will be somewhere in between. Those PODs that change everything rapidly are rare. they tend to be cataclysmic events outwith the control of people. Everything else tends to have a far smaller effect on history

That isn't to say that eventually minor events won't alter history, but it'll take a while. Demographic, economic and social forces work over long periods. Yes you have the occassional earthquake, but they tend to have little overall effect. For instance, the medium term impact of the fuel protests in Britain in 2000 were negligable even though at the time they seemed like a political earthquake. Real political earthquakes such as the 1997 British general election take a long time to develop

What am I trying to say? To apply the 'butterfly effect' in any useful way, you must be mindful of the full enviroment in which your POD takes place, not just the immediate. You must be aware of as many political, social, economic, religous etc forces prevalent at the POD to be able to predict the effect of said POD. In many situations you will find that the 'hard' implementation of the butterfly effect is as much ASB as no implementation

And one last thought, all time lines are as unlikely as all others, including our present one. There is no priviliedged time line. Equally, the number of time lines that could possibly exist in which life develops anywhere in the universe is so small, compared to the total number of possible time lines, it would be reasonable to assert that any time line in which life develops anywhere in the universe is ASB and that it would be even more ASB to have a time line where intelligent, sentient life develops on this particular planet
 
The problem with the butterfly effect as it is usually applied is that there is a lack of understanding as to what's going to have a large effect on history and what isn't.


Kellineil,

Which is why I wrote that, while butterflies always have an effect, it's the level of the effect where the questions lie. The level of an effect can wax and wane over time too. A minor butterfly at the POD can be momentous a century later and a momentous butterfly at the POD can minor a century later.

History is many things and is viewed through many different prisms.

No. History is one thing viewed through many prisms. History is an elephant being examined by the blind men who then proclaim it to be a spear, a wall, a pillar, a fan, a rope, and so on.

But not all PODs are equal.

No one is suggesting they are.

That isn't to say that eventually minor events won't alter history, but it'll take a while.

No one is suggesting that time isn't a factor.

To apply the 'butterfly effect' in any useful way, you must be mindful of the full enviroment in which your POD takes place, not just the immediate.

You only need follow the butterflies as far as your timeline takes you. The problem is that too many people take their timelines too far and stop honestly following the butterflies too early on.

And one last thought, all time lines are as unlikely as all others, including our present one.

No. As I explained above, while everything is possible, everything doesn't have the same level of plausibility. While the term "privileged timeline" is not an accurate one, certain events, and thus certain timelines, are more plausible, more probable, than others.


Bill
 

Thande

Donor
Although I prefer a fairly strict application of the butterfly effect, I accept that there are cases where it is more interesting to ignore it; for example, I recall one short TL (possibly by DMA) where more peoples from the East Indies trade with Australian Aborigines back in the 700s and this leads to Australia becoming a more populous, Muslim region. But the butterfly effect is contained here so we can then look at how the same-as-OTL colonial powers treat the region, and the TL's argument is that they would treat it as "more Africa", which is quite interesting.

By contrast, there's Turtledove's Down in the Bottomlands, which unlike some of his other stuff has a very strict application of the butterfly effect - the POD is thousands of years back, with the Mediterranean staying drained, and absolutely nothing is recognisable, with both Neanderthals and Homo sapiens being around and considered equals, none of the states having recognisable names, etc. It's an interesting story, but at times it might as well be set on a random fantasy world as a variant of our own - which I think is the justification for people who throw in OTL figures long after the POD.
 
*Yes, my ego is that large to create my own set of laws.
If it weren't you should be stripped of your title. I think they should have renamed that bridge....

Kellineil,

Which is why I wrote that, while butterflies always have an effect, it's the level of the effect where the questions lie. The level of an effect can wax and wane over time too. A minor butterfly at the POD can be momentous a century later and a momentous butterfly at the POD can minor a century later.

[snip]

You only need follow the butterflies as far as your timeline takes you. The problem is that too many people take their timelines too far and stop honestly following the butterflies too early on.

No. As I explained above, while everything is possible, everything doesn't have the same level of plausibility. While the term "privileged timeline" is not an accurate one, certain events, and thus certain timelines, are more plausible, more probable, than others.

I've only done the one timeline here so far, but the tension that I'm finding is the balance between realism, entertainment and the fact that there seem to be equally plausible routes you can go down. Fortunately like fiction, there are things that I suddenly realize have happened and then my job is to act like a historian, through careful examination of the evidence I can piece together a likely change of events that resulted in whatever change and then I see the ripple effects from those changes etc. I actually have a map with an expanding series of circles on it with years marked.

ED: For the record I subscribe to the social forces theory of history, but also individuals that chance and personality combine to "ride the wave" so to speak and can influence it in some way.
 
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