The problem with the butterfly effect as it is usually applied is that there is a lack of understanding as to what's going to have a large effect on history and what isn't
History is many things and is viewed through many different prisms. There is an argument that individual events have little effect on the broader continuity of history, and for the most part this is a reasonable supposition. But there are points in time when a seemingly small event can change everything these historical nodes, or as we like to call them POD's are the essence of what we do here.
But not all PODs are equal. Some will change rapidly change everything, some will have no long term effect (lets call these pseudoPODs ) and most will be somewhere in between. Those PODs that change everything rapidly are rare. they tend to be cataclysmic events outwith the control of people. Everything else tends to have a far smaller effect on history
That isn't to say that eventually minor events won't alter history, but it'll take a while. Demographic, economic and social forces work over long periods. Yes you have the occassional earthquake, but they tend to have little overall effect. For instance, the medium term impact of the fuel protests in Britain in 2000 were negligable even though at the time they seemed like a political earthquake. Real political earthquakes such as the 1997 British general election take a long time to develop
What am I trying to say? To apply the 'butterfly effect' in any useful way, you must be mindful of the full enviroment in which your POD takes place, not just the immediate. You must be aware of as many political, social, economic, religous etc forces prevalent at the POD to be able to predict the effect of said POD. In many situations you will find that the 'hard' implementation of the butterfly effect is as much ASB as no implementation
And one last thought, all time lines are as unlikely as all others, including our present one. There is no priviliedged time line. Equally, the number of time lines that could possibly exist in which life develops anywhere in the universe is so small, compared to the total number of possible time lines, it would be reasonable to assert that any time line in which life develops anywhere in the universe is ASB and that it would be even more ASB to have a time line where intelligent, sentient life develops on this particular planet
History is many things and is viewed through many different prisms. There is an argument that individual events have little effect on the broader continuity of history, and for the most part this is a reasonable supposition. But there are points in time when a seemingly small event can change everything these historical nodes, or as we like to call them POD's are the essence of what we do here.
But not all PODs are equal. Some will change rapidly change everything, some will have no long term effect (lets call these pseudoPODs ) and most will be somewhere in between. Those PODs that change everything rapidly are rare. they tend to be cataclysmic events outwith the control of people. Everything else tends to have a far smaller effect on history
That isn't to say that eventually minor events won't alter history, but it'll take a while. Demographic, economic and social forces work over long periods. Yes you have the occassional earthquake, but they tend to have little overall effect. For instance, the medium term impact of the fuel protests in Britain in 2000 were negligable even though at the time they seemed like a political earthquake. Real political earthquakes such as the 1997 British general election take a long time to develop
What am I trying to say? To apply the 'butterfly effect' in any useful way, you must be mindful of the full enviroment in which your POD takes place, not just the immediate. You must be aware of as many political, social, economic, religous etc forces prevalent at the POD to be able to predict the effect of said POD. In many situations you will find that the 'hard' implementation of the butterfly effect is as much ASB as no implementation
And one last thought, all time lines are as unlikely as all others, including our present one. There is no priviliedged time line. Equally, the number of time lines that could possibly exist in which life develops anywhere in the universe is so small, compared to the total number of possible time lines, it would be reasonable to assert that any time line in which life develops anywhere in the universe is ASB and that it would be even more ASB to have a time line where intelligent, sentient life develops on this particular planet