The eagle's left head

[Avrorrange]

If you want to get technical AFTER defeat at Imera is is slightly larger than the army Joanna and Louis could scrap together. Charles III is a notably tougher nut to crack than his daughter.


Well when John was bringing in Turks with Andronikos III still alive people did not quite want him dead. Neither was he in danger of losing anything but the purple when he brought the Ottomans in Europe. In 1346 when he married off Theodora to Orhan not even that was in danger, he was winning already.

Everyone was trying to appeal to the Turks for aid back in 1346. Hindsight is 20:20. If he didn’t marry off his daughter to Orhan, perhaps Anna of Savoy could have gotten Ottoman aid instead.

And how many emperors aside from Constantine X and Andronikos took an active policy to reduce the army and remove capable generals during 11 centuries of history? Andronikos and Constantine are the outliers here.

We have plenty who denied the army it’s pay and got killed. Not much difference between denying the army its pay and officially sacking them. It’s a miracle that those two were able to stay alive after denying the army their pay. As for removing generals…..that happens all the time,often violently.Plenty of generals perceived as threats to the emperor were killed. Killing Stilicho and lynching the families of his soldiers during Alaric’s invasion comes to mind.

 

[X Oristos]

Everyone was trying to appeal to the Turks for aid back in 1346. Hindsight is 20:20. If

Not so much. The Byzantines did understand how the ghazis operated and the expansionist policy that the was the very foundation of those emirates. Inviting large numbers of turkish cavalry when you didn't have enough forces of your own to check them, is an accident waiting to happen. You don't need 20/20 hindsight to know that Cuman or Italian mercenaries do not constitute the same level of threat as the Anatolian Emirates.

And of course the despotate is something of a different beast being as much a continuation of the Norman kingdom of Sicily as an imperial offshoot.

The certainly helps with a smooth transition of power. Have you given any thought how the institutions and administration have evolved over time ?

No idea but I pretty much doubt they extend much away from Thessaloniki. Not in the face of Serb armies.

I think it is plausible that at some point Philanthropenos might try to rebuild the justinian wall that protected the Kassandra Peninsula. After all, Ioannis VII Palaiologos managed to do it as Despot of Thessaloniki.

Moreover, since Philanthropenos moved to seize Imperial Thessaly, I would think plausible that he seized the imperial-held castle of Anaktoroupolis across Thasos. Between this castle and Thasos, it would be a bit easier to interecept any fleet from Constantinople sailing towards Thessaloniki. Likewise, it is useful for the interception of traffic between Negroponte and the Straits.

 

[nickmn]

Actually, an electoral system might be better than what the ERE has. It would help create buy-in from all the electors, you could have one for Morea, the Aegean Islands, Macedonia, Epirus, Thessaly, and Thrace would be the Imperial Seat, granted it would make the electors strong enough to resist the central authority, the same problem the HRE had, but it would be cool.

That didn't work for the HRE for long . After 1440 , the HRE title was basically a Hapsburg title in all but name .

 

[nickmn]

Not so much. The Byzantines did understand how the ghazis operated and the expansionist policy that the was the very foundation of those emirates. Inviting large numbers of turkish cavalry when you didn't have enough forces of your own to check them, is an accident waiting to happen. You don't need 20/20 hindsight to know that Cuman or Italian mercenaries do not constitute the same level of threat as the Anatolian Emirates.


The certainly helps with a smooth transition of power. Have you given any thought how the institutions and administration have evolved over time ?


I think it is plausible that at some point Philanthropenos might try to rebuild the justinian wall that protected the Kassandra Peninsula. After all, Ioannis VII Palaiologos managed to do it as Despot of Thessaloniki.

Moreover, since Philanthropenos moved to seize Imperial Thessaly, I would think plausible that he seized the imperial-held castle of Anaktoroupolis across Thasos. Between this castle and Thasos, it would be a bit easier to interecept any fleet from Constantinople sailing towards Thessaloniki. Likewise, it is useful for the interception of traffic between Negroponte and the Straits.

Nea Peramos is quite a distance in the east of Thessakoniki . Why would Philanthropenos venture so far east from the lands he moved in in northern Thessaly ( probably quite a bit of distance west of Thessaloniki ) ?

 

[Andristan]

That didn't work for the HRE for long . After 1440 , the HRE title was basically a Hapsburg title in all but name .

Exactly! a more or less stable imperial succession, which creates significant buy-in from the electors who then are motivated to help maintain the system( though also to keep the Emperor weak, so not great there) and thus themselves in power. The point is not to create an actually open electoral system, its to get the big internal players of the empire invested in maintaining the system as is, if that means the emperor has to wheel and deal with his electors to get his kid elected then so be it.

 

[X Oristos]

Nea Peramos is quite a distance in the east of Thessakoniki . Why would Philanthropenos venture so far east from the lands he moved in in northern Thessaly ( probably quite a bit of distance west of Thessaloniki ) ?

The Despotate controls Thasos already - so they are in a great position to save the castle from the Serbians. There is also the chance of an opportunistic grab of Christoupolis (modern Kavala) if Dusan is focused in the north.

Could the Serbs not hire a fleet from say Venice,Pisa,Ancona etc?

At this point, Pisa or Ancona cannot provide a substantial war fleet. The Venetians certainly can, however by doing so they escalate towards war with the Despotate. Which may very well be the case. But both to avoid war and provide Dusan with the means to blockade Thessaloniki, likely the second largest city of the Despotate ? So I think it will be full scale war then.

There is a caveat here though: The Despotate can hurt the Venetians significantly more, even though the latter have a larger fleet. Euboea is at the mercy of the nearby landpower, Crete is always chafing for revolt and the Dalmatians hate venetian rule. The Despotate doesn't need to win decisively in a sea battle, they just need to provide assistance to the Serenissima's imperial subjects, something that the Despotate is better suited to do than the OTL Genoese.

 

[galileo-034]

Thus, we can think that the Neapolitan Angevins, the Serbs and probably Ioannis VI as well (given his projects against Genoa), have a big interest to draw Venice into the war. That's the only thing that can prevent the Lascarids from sweeping the floor clean after Imera and Cape d'Orlando.
But with the bubonic plague and an earthquake hitting them, even the Venitians will have a hard time, and they'd better do it before the Lascarids capture Corfu.

 

[galileo-034]

I also get that if we follow some mix of the Genoa-Byzantine war of 1348-1349 and the War of the Straits, compounding into the Angevin-Lascarid war, there is also a chance the Aragonese of Peter IV get into the fray, formally on the side of Venice.

 

[Alkmaion]

One thing we shouldn´t forget...House Vatatzes only stands on four legs at the moment...and the death of Adrienne would open up one more possibility for marriage politics

 

[Quinkana]

I also get that if we follow some mix of the Genoa-Byzantine war of 1348-1349 and the War of the Straits, compounding into the Angevin-Lascarid war, there is also a chance the Aragonese of Peter IV get into the fray, formally on the side of Venice.

I think it is very possible, it's just that this would actually be very dangerous for the Lascarids. I think if Genoa backs the lascarids it may be good for the Lascarids if they go for Euboea and Crete, which would really affect the Venetians.

If Aragon throws in their hat in the ring, they'd still be running a naval campaign, and if the Lascarid and Genoan navies are working in concert with each other Aragon and Venice would probably still have a bad time, and I'd think the Venetians know that if the Lascarids take over their greek possessions Venice is never going to control them again, so they'd prob fight really hard in these circumstances.

All this only pushes the fact that Dusan is probably going to attack the Lascarids too, which would stress the despotate a lot as the need to move armies from Sicily to Greece will be hampered by the Venetian fleets.

I think this war will be one of the hardest wars the Lascarids will fight in general due to the capacity they can work with.

One thing we shouldn´t forget...House Vatatzes only stands on four legs at the moment...and the death of Adrienne would open up one more possibility for marriage politics

tbf if the Lascarids actually die off (unlikely, but possible) the Philantropenos probably would take over, as they're cousins to the Despots and have enough military and political pull to do so. They're the right hand men of the Lascarids, and I think the rest of the communes would accept it to keep the state together.

 

[Avrorrange]

Not so much. The Byzantines did understand how the ghazis operated and the expansionist policy that the was the very foundation of those emirates. Inviting large numbers of turkish cavalry when you didn't have enough forces of your own to check them, is an accident waiting to happen. You don't need 20/20 hindsight to know that Cuman or Italian mercenaries do not constitute the same level of threat as the Anatolian Emirates.


The certainly helps with a smooth transition of power. Have you given any thought how the institutions and administration have evolved over time ?


I think it is plausible that at some point Philanthropenos might try to rebuild the justinian wall that protected the Kassandra Peninsula. After all, Ioannis VII Palaiologos managed to do it as Despot of Thessaloniki.

Moreover, since Philanthropenos moved to seize Imperial Thessaly, I would think plausible that he seized the imperial-held castle of Anaktoroupolis across Thasos. Between this castle and Thasos, it would be a bit easier to interecept any fleet from Constantinople sailing towards Thessaloniki. Likewise, it is useful for the interception of traffic between Negroponte and the Straits.

And yet Anna of Savoy’s faction tried to appeal to the Turks for support as well IOTL. Nevertheless, apart from the countryside getting looted etc, the Turks didn’t get any land in Europe(Gallipoli) until several years later in 1354,well after this round of civil war was over. Appealing for Turkish troops is hardly anything new.Several leaders in the past have done it as well.

 

[X Oristos]

Appealing for Turkish troops is hardly anything new.Several leaders in the past have done it as well.

Indeed they did. The difference though is in the scale of involvement. It is one thing for e.g. Michael VIII Palaiologos to include turkish mercenaries in his army that also had pronoia men, Westerners. Cumans etc and another thing to be completely depended on an emir or two. In the first case, the Turks are just a part of the field army, in the second they constitute basically all the army.

Thus, we can think that the Neapolitan Angevins, the Serbs and probably Ioannis VI as well (given his projects against Genoa), have a big interest to draw Venice into the war. That's the only thing that can prevent the Lascarids from sweeping the floor clean after Imera and Cape d'Orlando.

I think gradually the center of gravity of the Despotate- Neapolitan war will move towards Apulia.

First and foremost, it is the strategic location of the province, alongside with Corfu that allows the two halfs of the Despotate to communicate and assist each other. But we have already mention it several times.

With the Tarantines becoming the major backer of the throne, Apulia starts becoming the actual heartland of the angevin power in the Regno. Capitanata has the biggest percentage of royal demesne in the kingdom. Terra di Bari has also a sizeable demesne. Then there is Terra di Otranto that is the Tarantines' powerbase. In TTL without Calabria, in 1320 Apulia has 32,61% of the total population and provides the same percentage of the total taxes. Moreover, Terra di Otranto and especially Capitanata are not densely populated, so they will be somewhat less impacted by the plague, compared to Campania. Terra di Bari was densely populated though.

Having said that, getting a toehold in Apulia would alarm the Venetians.

 

[Avrorrange]

Indeed they did. The difference though is in the scale of involvement. It is one thing for e.g. Michael VIII Palaiologos to include turkish mercenaries in his army that also had pronoia men, Westerners. Cumans etc and another thing to be completely depended on an emir or two. In the first case, the Turks are just a part of the field army, in the second they constitute basically all the army.


I think gradually the center of gravity of the Despotate- Neapolitan war will move towards Apulia.

First and foremost, it is the strategic location of the province, alongside with Corfu that allows the two halfs of the Despotate to communicate and assist each other. But we have already mention it several times.

With the Tarantines becoming the major backer of the throne, Apulia starts becoming the actual heartland of the angevin power in the Regno. Capitanata has the biggest percentage of royal demesne in the kingdom. Terra di Bari has also a sizeable demesne. Then there is Terra di Otranto that is the Tarantines' powerbase. In TTL without Calabria, in 1320 Apulia has 32,61% of the total population and provides the same percentage of the total taxes. Moreover, Terra di Otranto and especially Capitanata are not densely populated, so they will be somewhat less impacted by the plague, compared to Campania. Terra di Bari was densely populated though.

Having said that, getting a toehold in Apulia would alarm the Venetians.

And the Turkish army didn’t lead to any territorial losses from the Turks.The losses came several years after this civil war.To get Westerners and Cumans into the army, you need to pay them somehow.If you can’t pay them, it’s gonna lead to another Catalan Company situation.I guess technically John has a personal relationship with the Turkic leaders and thought that he could get a better deal.

 

[galileo-034]

I think gradually the center of gravity of the Despotate- Neapolitan war will move towards Apulia.

First and foremost, it is the strategic location of the province, alongside with Corfu that allows the two halfs of the Despotate to communicate and assist each other. But we have already mention it several times.

With the Tarantines becoming the major backer of the throne, Apulia starts becoming the actual heartland of the angevin power in the Regno. Capitanata has the biggest percentage of royal demesne in the kingdom. Terra di Bari has also a sizeable demesne. Then there is Terra di Otranto that is the Tarantines' powerbase. In TTL without Calabria, in 1320 Apulia has 32,61% of the total population and provides the same percentage of the total taxes. Moreover, Terra di Otranto and especially Capitanata are not densely populated, so they will be somewhat less impacted by the plague, compared to Campania. Terra di Bari was densely populated though.

Having said that, getting a toehold in Apulia would alarm the Venetians.

And push them a few more inches towards joining the fray...

With the fiscal pressure, bubonic plague and possible persecution of greek speaking populations in Apulia (the series of defeats at Rhodes, Imera, and Cape d'Orlando, plus the Second Vespers in Val di Mazara only increase the chances of a sore looser syndrome on the Tarentines' part and their Greek Apulian subjects are a target within reach for their wrath to unload unto), there is even more pressure for a propagation of the Second Vespers to the region. Both and opportunity and a problem I'd think. Politically, the Lascarids cannot stand and do nothing to help Greek rebels in Apulia if it happens, but they are badly overstretched between the plague, liberating Val di Mazara and defending Greece against Serbs. Then, one could say attack is the best of defense, and bringing the fight to Apulia would remove pressure on Calabria itself.

 

[galileo-034]

@Lascaris, where are the Kydones brothers so far?

Given their OTL trajectories, it looks as if they will end up in the Lascarids' employ before long. They seem prime candidates to study at the University of Syracuse.

I see that Demetrios, given his OTL political carreer and being about the same age as Alexandros, would become a great Lascarid stateman and would shape the culture and politics of the Lascarid - should we say - Empire for the second half of the 14th century, the way Alexios shaped its military fortunes, doctrine and cadres for the first half.
And by extension, Prochoros would be a potential successor to Barlaam a decade or two down the line to head either - or both - the university of Syracuse and its (arch)bishopric - ie de facto head of the Church in the Despotate.

 

[kasumigenx]

Perhaps the Lascarids would take Maria of Sicily if she is not butterflied.

 

[Avrorrange]

Perhaps the Lascarids would take Maria of Sicily if she is not butterflied.

Err. Her family has been totally dispossessed of almost all of their land, if not already so.

 

[Quinkana]

Err. Her family has been totally dispossessed of almost all of their land, if not already so.

they became the kings of Albania then proceeded to lose it to Dusan. I think they're prob in Naples rn, and frankly the crown of trinicaria is as good as useless at this point. Claiming to be the kings of Sicily/Autokrator of the Roman Empire is more politically useful at this point (although the negatives outweigh the positives at this point in time).

 

[X Oristos]

And the Turkish army didn’t lead to any territorial losses from the Turks.The losses came several years after this civil war.To get Westerners and Cumans into the army, you need to pay them somehow.If you can’t pay them, it’s gonna lead to another Catalan Company situation.I guess technically John has a personal relationship with the Turkic leaders and thought that he could get a better deal.

Well, the Aydininds, Sarukhans, Ottomans and possibly even Germiyans that were utilized by Kantakouzenos and the Regents were mercenaries. The fact that Kantakouzenos was building a personal relationship with the emirs, doesn't mean he wasn't paying them as well. They did receive coin and at the same time they were devastating and looting Thrace and Macedonia. Why wouldn't they? There was nobody on their "side" to check them.

only increase the chances of a sore looser syndrome on the Tarentines' part and their Greek Apulian subjects are a target within reach for their wrath to unload unto), there is even more pressure for a propagation of the Second Vespers to the region.

Both in OTL and TTL Otranto submitted to the Sicilians under Roger de Lauria during the Vespers. It seems that the great admiral had blockaded the port and the city opened the gates. Thefore, it doesn't seem that they resisted too fiercely and most likely there was an element there that sympathized with the Sicilians. That episode could trigger some anxiety to the Angevins since defeat makes people to see enemies everywhere.

 

[kasumigenx]

they became the kings of Albania then proceeded to lose it to Dusan. I think they're prob in Naples rn, and frankly the crown of trinicaria is as good as useless at this point. Claiming to be the kings of Sicily/Autokrator of the Roman Empire is more politically useful at this point (although the negatives outweigh the positives at this point in time).

I think the Laskarid heir marrying her completely ends the fight between the despotate and the Catalans.