The Day of the Lion: An Italian WW2 TL

"Where we are, there is victory"


Operation Alaric had ended in bloody failure with much of its force either dead or stranded. The Fascist Freedom Corps had only managed to restore Fascism to a few square kilometres of Italian mountainside. It was a victim of limited or non-existant logistics, hurried timescales and the emotive, panicked reasoning which underpinned it. Comando Supremo in Rome was far from optimistic, their remaining armies had been further damaged and the promise of Allied rescue remained vague, however the Germans had been checked and some dared to hope that Hitler might cut his losses and realise the Alps could be used as an effective defensive line either way.




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On the bright side, Hube army is not only a shadow of his former self but is now contained and the hope of being relieved or evacuated are extremely slim, basically if some miracale don't happen they will be forced to surrender due to the lack of...everything (frankly knowing the state of the territory at the time i doubt that they can rob enough to sustain themself for long).
The daring attack on Rome has been a failure that had cost Germany an elite division and the 4th army had been partially succesfull in retreat back in Italy and forming a defensive line in the alps (OTL around 60.000 italian soldiers were taken prisoner in France in a couple of days) while the Werchmatch not only need to pacify the territory but she will be very busy in re enacting the sumer 1940 battle of the Alps, taking the role of the italians in term of loss and succes (not only the terrain heavily favor the defender but it also full of fortification...and you need the proper equipment to survive otherwise you get a massive numbers of case of hypotermia like the italians in 1940).
There are still Sardinia and Corsica but i doubt that the Germans had been more succesfull there, even because they know that even in case of victory they are pretty much isolated and with the italian fleet near by there isn't a lot to spare for their evacuation IMVHO they plan will be a fighting retreat to the various port, taking all the available ships and use it to reach mainland France i don't take in consideration an airlift as the remaining capacity had been used to give some supply to Hube forces.
All that had bought precious time to the current government to stabilize and organize a better defense while continuing the negotiation with the allies and surving the initial onslaught will have given them a little more credibility and by now there will be probably a very hot discussion regarding what to do as the occasion is too big to vaste and every general with two functioning braincell will tell the politicians that they need to decide quickly as the Germans will try again and the italians can't resist that much

And now my personal two cents regarding the events:
As said before, it's an enormous change for Italy as the OTL event of 8 semptember still are felt here 80 years later, it was the collapse of a system, of the state and all the institutions; the entire italian population felt betrayed by his own government, with the armed forces melting and offer no meaningfull resistance against the germans while the King and courts run cowardly from Rome leaving everyone behind to fend for themself. It was a moment that permanently scarred and humiliated the italian psyche and national character, much more than Caporetto (where in the end we have First Piave aka the big 'you shall not pass' moment of the italian army done in a moment when even the high command though all was lost and the entire political system united to remain in the fight).
OTL the italian surrender meant hundreds of thousands of italians both military and civilians captured without almost a fight and sent to Germany as slave labor (with harsh treatment and precarious living condition) and many never returned; plus it started what by many is considered a civil war between the RSI (Republica di Salò) and the Co belligerant Kingdom of the South and again the scars and consequences have been felt for decades
ITTL with the legitimate government not collapsing and keeping (for now) control of the national territory, well the Fascist Freedom corps member can much more easily depicted as traitor and with Benny still in prison (with a lot of fascist hardliner i presume) there is nobody that can become a rallying point for the fascist
(As a note i presume that the remaining MSVN will be separated and positioned in various place where they can coordinate with anyone and be easily controlled)
This bring a very different italian society postwar, not even considering the much more probable survival of the monarchy; basically our WW2 legacy will be a lot less problematic and not forced for 40 years to be treated as a tragic comedy when is not fully ignored
 
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Driftless

Donor
Werchmatch not only need to pacify the territory but she will be very busy in re enacting the sumer 1940 battle of the Alps, taking the role of the italians in term of loss and succes (not only the terrain heavily favor the defender but it also full of fortification...and you need the proper equipment to survive otherwise you get a massive numbers of case of hypotermia like the italians in 1940).
No real knowledge here, but I would expect most of the Wehrmacht's winter gear is in Russia(and a bit in Norway), and whatever reserve stockpiles exist in 1943 are probably in German warehouses, and not a great deal of ready-to-wear winter garb in the South of France at that point. I'd expect some of that gear could be brought south, but not so quickly and not in great quantity, which goes to your last point.

There are still Sardinia and Corsica but i doubt that the Germans had been more succesfull there, even because they know that even in case of victory they are pretty much isolated and with the italian fleet near by

There's also the Allied surface and submarine fleets that the Germans would need to factor into there calculations. Some coverage from Allied aviation too.
 

Driftless

Donor
Aren't there also a very significant number of Italians forces in Russia too? What is their status in this chaotic situation?
 
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Aren't there also a very significant number of Italians forces in Russia too? What is their status in this chaotic situation?
Except for a detachment of the Xmas the rest of the 8th Army or ARMIR (Armata Italiana in Russia) has been sent back to Italy (more precisely in Veneto) a couple of months before operation Husky to be rebuild after the horrorific loss in term of men and materiali.
Who remain in URSS by now is a prisoner of the soviet and under their ' tender mercy', i don't know if ITTL the italian goverment will be more succesfull in bring them back before the end of the war but OTL the last italian prisoner was liberated only in 1954
 
Very smart move on Cappa's part, tricking Borghese into revealing his plan. Shame he's dead, such a capable man would have been invaluable during the retreat and the consequent fighting against the Germans.

Even during the OTL collapse he showed a lot of initiative and willingness to resist the Germans, he ended up Chief of Staff of the Italian Army post-war

There also should be the men of the Guardia alla Frontiera (Border Guard) to defend the Alpine Wall.
While they lacked modern and heavy equipment, that's still between 50.000 to 30.000 (depend on the loyalty of the battalions of MVSN) trained soldiers to man the fortifications. They can give the remnants of the 4th army crucial time to reorganize themselves.

Very true although even the older artillery they had is useful enough in such defensible terrain. There were serious ammunition issues but the Germans can only guess at that and don't really have the wherewithal to exploit it either with the Alpini on hand and the remnants of 4th Army reconstituting themselves. As with Rome I would imagine the MVSN would be confined to barracks particularly with the political element to the German attack.

That is a great line!

Thanks!

There are still Sardinia and Corsica but i doubt that the Germans had been more succesfull there, even because they know that even in case of victory they are pretty much isolated and with the italian fleet near by there isn't a lot to spare for their evacuation IMVHO they plan will be a fighting retreat to the various port, taking all the available ships and use it to reach mainland France i don't take in consideration an airlift as the remaining capacity had been used to give some supply to Hube forces.

Yeah with less time to prepare (and less forces on the islands) the impetus is very much on evacuation as with Sicily.

And now my personal two cents regarding the events:
As said before, it's an enormous change for Italy as the OTL event of 8 semptember still are felt here 80 years later, it was the collapse of a system, of the state and all the institutions; the entire italian population felt betrayed by his own government, with the armed forces melting and offer no meaningfull resistance against the germans while the King and courts run cowardly from Rome leaving everyone behind to fend for themself. It was a moment that permanently scarred and humiliated the italian psyche and national character, much more than Caporetto (where in the end we have First Piave aka the big 'you shall not pass' moment of the italian army done in a moment when even the high command though all was lost and the entire political system united to remain in the fight).
OTL the italian surrender meant hundreds of thousands of italians both military and civilians captured without almost a fight and sent to Germany as slave labor (with harsh treatment and precarious living condition) and many never returned; plus it started what by many is considered a civil war between the RSI (Republica di Salò) and the Co belligerant Kingdom of the South and again the scars and consequences have been felt for decades
ITTL with the legitimate government not collapsing and keeping (for now) control of the national territory, well the Fascist Freedom corps member can much more easily depicted as traitor and with Benny still in prison (with a lot of fascist hardliner i presume) there is nobody that can become a rallying point for the fascist
(As a note i presume that the remaining MSVN will be separated and positioned in various place where they can coordinate with anyone and be easily controlled)
This bring a very different italian society postwar, not even considering the much more probable survival of the monarchy; basically our WW2 legacy will be a lot less problematic and not forced for 40 years to be treated as a tragic comedy when is not fully ignored

This is very interesting and its something I'm keen to examine later on in the TL, won't say too much just now.

There's also the Allied surface and submarine fleets that the Germans would need to factor into there calculations. Some coverage from Allied aviation too.

I'd imagine they won't have too much trouble getting away, submarines can only do so much damage and the Allies can't really get at them from land-based air which would mean risking a carrier for surface vessels to intervene. They still aren't aware of the Fritz guided bombs either which would prove a nasty surprise.

Aren't there also a very significant number of Italians forces in Russia too? What is their status in this chaotic situation?
Except for a detachment of the Xmas the rest of the 8th Army or ARMIR (Armata Italiana in Russia) has been sent back to Italy (more precisely in Veneto) a couple of months before operation Husky to be rebuild after the horrorific loss in term of men and materiali.
Who remain in URSS by now is a prisoner of the soviet and under their ' tender mercy', i don't know if ITTL the italian goverment will be more succesfull in bring them back before the end of the war but OTL the last italian prisoner was liberated only in 1954

Yeah only some Regia Marina left at this point. The Italian 8th Army was largely destroyed during Case Blue and although there was some talk of rebuilding an Italian Corps in Belarus in early 1943 issues with equipping and supplying them made it unsustainable without German help, which wasn't forthcoming. The last left in the Spring unless there's something I've overlooked.
 
Bella ciao
Bella ciao



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Adolf Hitler remained confident Italy was near collapse and dismissed the German failure to bring it about already as due to Italian treachery. Nonetheless the Italians had taken heavy casualties and their morale was at breaking point, the German dictator declared, pointing to the reports of mass desertions in the Balkans, France and Sicily.

Italian industry and infrastructure were in tatters and with no coal or other resources coming across the Alps it would wither even further. Conrath’s force meanwhile remained powerful and was causing havoc in their rear whilst German forces had successfully evacuated themselves from Sardinia and were driving the Italians out of the Balkans.

In his standard monologue Hitler explained the Italians had survived due to Allied air power in the south and the Alps in the north however there were gaps in the mountains which could be exploited and if a force could cross them, the Allies would not have the range to intervene from the air. The next attack would come through the Ljubljana gap in occupied Slovenia where the Italian Alps ended and the Dinaric Alps began. It would be spearheaded by veteran units with a political belief in Fascism, the SS Panzer Corps.

This force was currently engaged in fighting off the Soviet counteroffensive following the failure of Operation Citadel and the plan provoked disagreement from some German generals who argued nothing could be spared from the Eastern Front without sacrificing even more territory than had already been lost.

Hitler replied that difficult decisions would have to be made due to Citadel’s failure and the Mediterranean crisis but he had faced difficult times before only to prevail. To allow the Italians a reprieve would mean Allied forces arriving on the Alps where they would be able to bomb Germany with impunity and cut off the Balkans. The Wehrmacht had shown it could withstand crises and reconquer territory temporarily lost in the Soviet Union but if Italy were lost then so would the war as whole.

Hitler regurgitated arguments made by those such as Rommel back in the Spring about how the incorporation of northern Italian industry into the German economy would be a great boost to war production. He also theorised how Italian Fascists might be hardened by the experiences they were going through just now.

Hitler argued Nazi supremacy came from the fact the movement had grown from nothing to seize power whilst Italian Fascists had power handed to them by the King and subsequently grew complacent. If they could prove themselves worthy to the present challenge, the Rome-Berlin Axis might reemerge stronger than it had been before.

Much of this was fantasy, however the prediction of difficult times for Italian Fascism was correct. The collective anger towards the old regime across much of society overwhelmed attempts by the Army and Carabinieri to keep it in check. The focus soon switched to containing the anger, Fascist offices were left to be vandalised and monuments destroyed with an increasing number of party leaders across the country asking for protective custody. The Army had already taken to moving Mussolini around Rome repeatedly to evade a potential lynch mob.

Whilst the Italian people vented their frustrations the new regime continued to play a delicate political and strategic game. Despite the optimism of those such as General Castellano who believed the German treachery provided an opportunity for a glorious redemption of the Italian Army it was clear the situation was still perilous. The Italian army had lost the best part of three armies; much of what remained was disorganised or deserting. Entire cities in the north were partially or wholly under Communist control with the Italian battlefleet having seemingly defected to them. In the south the Germans remained in control of a large part of Campania. A successful static defence was being carried out in the Alps so far but ammunition was running out and there was little in reserve to contain even a small German breakthrough.

Ambrosio needed arms and men desperately and to do this required alliances at home and abroad. The intervention of Allied airpower in southern Italy had conjured hopes of Allied armies soon arriving on mainland Italy to defend against further German attacks; however there were no concrete plans for this so far. From Madrid, Grandi speculated about internal Allied differences on how far north they intended to advance in Italy if at all. He had also been told of how the British were keen to open up a front in the Balkans and would be more amenable to a negotiated peace should the Italians maintain a foothold there

In truth the Italian occupation zones in the Balkans were collapsing with their forces surrounded by the Germans and local collaborators. Rommel’s forces had already seized control of much of Greece whilst in Albania and Yugoslavia a panicked withdrawal to the coast was underway with large columns of Italian civilians and soldiers wandering to the nearest port. An ordered evacuation would potentially have Ambrosio access to tens of thousands more troops however given the suspected British attitude he was forced to try and hold on to parts of the Albanian and Croatian coast even whilst the Germans occupied Slovenia and prepared for a renewed offensive into Italy.

Much more significant progress was being made with the fleet at La Spezia. Admiral de Courten had met with the sailors' and workers’ committees and listened to their grievances. He promised no more suicidal orders would be given, sailors pay and rations would be increased, the committees would maintain control of La Spezia and even be allowed to continue at sea, albeit in an advisory form. These concessions were enough to convince the battle fleet to sortie south at last, not into a final apocalyptic battle but to Naples once more to evade enemy air attack. These were concessions which Supermarina forfeited through gritted teeth on the basis of getting the fleet to a safer location and the need to have it intact for negotiations with the Allies.

The show of good faith from Milan in calling for Italian workers to help defend their homeland opened the door to a potential cooperation between the new regime in Rome and the PCI. Despite the mutual mistrust there was a lot at stake. Italy couldn’t afford a civil war when there was a foreign invader happy to hang both sides separately. For the PCI there was the opportunity to not only save Italy from a Fascist revival but also the chance to cement their control and influence in northern Italy, securing a base to build towards revolution throughout the country once the Germans were defeated. For Rome, working with the Communists would help build a broad anti-German coalition to legitimise their regime, free up troops for the defence of the frontiers and allow the armaments factories to start running to some capacity again.

It was an appealing set of circumstances for both parties however there were some stumbling blocks. The Communists demanded representation in the new government and democratic elections following the removal of the Germans, neither of which the newly installed military junta was keen to facilitate

There was also the issue of General Rossi whose reign of terror in Turin had continued even with the removal of Mussolini. The Communists wanted all political prisoners released and Rossi removed. To many in the Army this was unacceptable however Rossi was a devout fascist and rumours had circulated he was planning to turn the city over to the Germans should they arrive. Ambrosio conceded on this point, retiring Rossi and ending the reprisals.

It was enough to build a working arrangement between Rome and Milan even though the thornier issues of Communist representation and elections remained undecided. Both sides realised the Allies would ultimately arbitrate and both sought to gain their favour eventually but to do so they agreed there would need to be an Italy left to fight over. Workers militias were raised in earnest alongside the regular and a trickle of supplies began to emerge from armaments factories back in operation.

The Regia Marina battle fleet left La Spezia on the 25th July. The port was shrouded in smoke once more to protect against the new enemy however the committees did their best to present it as a jubilant occasion filled with improvised ceremony and triumphant speeches; here the sailors had refused to be martyrs for tyranny and had instead thrown off their shackles. Here they had lit the spark which had spread the flame of revolution across Italy and brought about Fascism’s downfall.

They were sailing off now to Naples but also to the bright future they had won for all Italians, so it was proclaimed. It was a future filled with promise and as much clarity as the smoke-filled skies above.


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Ok so the situation is one of 'controlled desperation', the italian authorities have more or less the control of the national territory (the communist will work with them due to the fact that they know perfectely how they will fare with the nazist when they come back and the germans in Campania are contained and frankly it's only a matter of time that they will be forced to surrender due to the lack of...well everything) but everyone knows that survive another attack (this time better planned) will be almost a miracle so i expect that the goverment will continue to press the allies for support.
The communist for their side talk big but i doubt that the leadership doesn't know how precarious is their position, sure they control some of the big city in the north with the industries but they are also a big enormous target for the Luftwaffe and without the Italian air force they are basically defenseless and more importantly the goverment control the food and the other resources that they need so collaboration is their only real choice unless they don't prefer being martyred.
Regarding the communist militia, unlike OTL with the collapse of the italian army they don't have access to their armory and the mass of soldiers that escaped from the german plus i doubt that the Anglo American will be very eager to support them logistically like OTL with a working goverment in Rome, so while they got prestige for the revolt on Milan, between the loss in the rest of North Italy and the lack of OTL collapse, their military capacity is way below OTL. Sure they control some industrial zone, unfortunely the production of small arms is spread in a lot of little/medium factories in a vast area and the most heavy equipment need resources that are under the control of other and they don't have generally the training for using it...plus the scare of the nazist return force them to send almost everything to the army
Regarding the political prisoner, i assume that the King and co. will have at least some braincell working and the first to be freed are member of the non communist opposition like the Liberals and the Democratic Christian so to create some political support for the post fascist political landscape (if VEIII was really really smart he will abdicate and give the crow to Umberto but i doubt that he will do it )
And finally the Anglo-American...ok time is a very precious commodity (the Germans will need some time to transfer the troops and prepare the attack) and while Winston is probably pestering everyone for launching the invasion of the Balkans as ITTL with the italians still in controll of various port can have some chance of success, it's only a question of time before the remnant italian forces will be overwhelmed and the mainland fully invaded, so it's time for quick decision...but i suspect that USAF and RAF will increase (by pure absolutely coincidence) their attack on Jugoslavia and South France as not only the concentration of german troops are a too tempting target but Dwigt seem to understand how precarious is the current situation and there is the risk to waste a too great occasion; and while in OTL almost three weeks were needed to reach an agreement of surrender ITTL things are much more urgent, hell i expect that the top brass of the allied air forces is salivating at the mere idea of having full access to the airfield in North Italy
The italian armed forces can resist one attack on the lubjiana gap thanks to the Vallo Alpino Orientale, the defensive line in Istria but it's not developed as the western one and there is the lack of...everything so i seriously doubt that it can resist for much. Honestly if the situation is desperate enough there will be little choice than use the fleet to help the evacuation and give artillery support and i mean even the ships coming from La Spezia (after a while even Rome will give the middle finger to the allied representative regarding the balkans if they don't actively help as it's clear that they can continue to hold too much if they don't have support).

For the Germans well this is basically an umitigated disaster, respect on OTL they have lost hundred of thousands of prisoners to be used as forced labor, an enormous quantity of equipment and the industrial zone of North Italy, not considering the loss of the men in the botched operation Achse at all that it's needed to add what will be lost during the second attempt of invade Italy
 
Very true although even the older artillery they had is useful enough in such defensible terrain.
Hehe, imagine being the German colonel that has to report that his attack failed because his men got caught in the crossfire of some rusty, interred Fiat 3000 and bombarded by ancient austrian Škoda Vz. 1915 the Italians took as a war prize after WW1.

As with Rome I would imagine the MVSN would be confined to barracks particularly with the political element to the German attack.
While it is wise to no trust the MVSN not employing them severely limit the number of trained soldiers available and carry the risk of the Italian army "purging" itself of loyal men trough battle attrition leaving the fascist as the only fighting force still intact (similarly at what happened to the Zarist Army).It will be better to have the MVSN swear loyalty to the new government and send them in small groups as reinforcements under the command of loyal officers.

They still aren't aware of the Fritz guided bombs either which would prove a nasty surprise.
-The allies finally decide to send troops to northern Italy to help the defense.
-Immediately get Fritz bombed.

Despite the mutual mistrust there was a lot at stake. Italy couldn’t afford a civil war when there was a foreign invader happy to hang both sides separately.
Hitler is right that the Italians are on the brink of collapse and civil war, how nice of him to give them an enemy to encourage collaboration and reforms.

the germans in Campania are contained and frankly it's only a matter of time that they will be forced to surrender due to the lack of...well everything
I'm actually surprised by the fact that allies bombers hadn't turned Sapri in a lunar landscape yet. It seems that the Germans had evicted the civilians from their homes and even if they didn't do it completely, well, the Allies were never exactly gun shy.

The italian armed forces can resist one attack on the lubjiana gap thanks to the Vallo Alpino Orientale, the defensive line in Istria but it's not developed as the western one and there is the lack of...everything so i seriously doubt that it can resist for much.
So thinking about what the government can use to stiffen the resistance of the Vallo Alpino Orientale and plug a breakthrough into the lubjiana gap: they got Centauro II.
Sure isn't a lot, but those Panzers IV, Panzers III and StuG III are available and ready to go. We could have a German tank vs. German tank action!

Frank Columbo is thinking "I'll never need another mac when I join the LAPD".

Full movie.
Sorry, what?
 
I'm actually surprised by the fact that allies bombers hadn't turned Sapri in a lunar landscape yet. It seems that the Germans had evicted the civilians from their homes and even if they didn't do it completely, well, the Allies were never exactly gun shy.
yep me too, frankly while i fully understand taking time to evaluate the situation and at least see if the italian goverment is something to viable enough for a negotiation, letting the germans fully organize their troops for an invasion is something of extremely...hard to understand. Not for any love for the italians but because well not only they are very very tempting target but avoiding that the Germans get their hands on the industry of North Italy and also obtain access to North Italy with air base in range of south Germany and all the Balkans will be a priority. Not considering Churchill proposal for an invasion of the Balkans and Stalin demanding a second front to decrease the military pressure that the Soviet Union feel
Sure OTL the allied command hardly planned with a minimum of competence and realism any support for the italian surrender but it was a mix of understimating the german response and overstimating the italian capacity of resist plus it happen so fast that there were no real time for react; ITTL things are different and while Italy is holding anyone can see that the situation is dire and a quick reaction is needed
 

Driftless

Donor
Peter Falk played a famous detective of that name. He had an ancient and tatty mac (indeed, ancient and tatty everything) that was actually, like all the clothes worn by the character, Falk's own.

The fellow in the photo is a dead ringer for Peter Falk
 
Regarding the communist militia, unlike OTL with the collapse of the italian army they don't have access to their armory and the mass of soldiers that escaped from the german plus i doubt that the Anglo American will be very eager to support them logistically like OTL with a working goverment in Rome, so while they got prestige for the revolt on Milan, between the loss in the rest of North Italy and the lack of OTL collapse, their military capacity is way below OTL. Sure they control some industrial zone, unfortunely the production of small arms is spread in a lot of little/medium factories in a vast area and the most heavy equipment need resources that are under the control of other and they don't have generally the training for using it...plus the scare of the nazist return force them to send almost everything to the army

Yeah the workers militias in Genoa, Milan and now elsewhere will mostly involve workers defending their local areas and/or factories with small arms and explosives. Anything heavier produced (or captured in the initial uprising) will be handed over to the army. I'm envisioning some manning anti-aircraft defences as well, like in Leningrad.

Regarding the political prisoner, i assume that the King and co. will have at least some braincell working and the first to be freed are member of the non communist opposition like the Liberals and the Democratic Christian so to create some political support for the post fascist political landscape (if VEIII was really really smart he will abdicate and give the crow to Umberto but i doubt that he will do it )

This is similar to what Badoglio's regime did although with the Communists actively negotiating they'll probably anticipate this and demand release of their own alongside more moderate dissidents.

Frank Columbo is thinking "I'll never need another mac when I join the LAPD".

Full movie.

His time in the Regio Esercito would serve him well in the LAPD and cause them to overlook some of the more controversial periods of his political development.

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Good stuff, good stuff

Thanks!

While it is wise to no trust the MVSN not employing them severely limit the number of trained soldiers available and carry the risk of the Italian army "purging" itself of loyal men trough battle attrition leaving the fascist as the only fighting force still intact (similarly at what happened to the Zarist Army).It will be better to have the MVSN swear loyalty to the new government and send them in small groups as reinforcements under the command of loyal officers.

It's a good point but but with events happening so quickly and paranoia about a counter-coup (exarcerbated by the Germans framing their actions as assisting one) it's a big risk when it just takes one knowledgable defector to give away how to best bypass the fortifications. As Scorza complained and evidence showed I would imagine many weren't devout Fascists with some being involved for careerism or because it was compulsory and there will come a time when those willing to pledge loyalty to the new regime are allowed to join the defence but probably away from the frontline.


I'm actually surprised by the fact that allies bombers hadn't turned Sapri in a lunar landscape yet. It seems that the Germans had evicted the civilians from their homes and even if they didn't do it completely, well, the Allies were never exactly gun shy.

The Allies certainly weren't hesitant about Italian civilians becoming collateral damage IOTL however short of flattening the entire region there aren't as many juicy targets any more. The Germans aren't concentrated any longer nor are they on the move and so can use the terrain to their advantage in concealing themselves.

So thinking about what the government can use to stiffen the resistance of the Vallo Alpino Orientale and plug a breakthrough into the lubjiana gap: they got Centauro II.
Sure isn't a lot, but those Panzers IV, Panzers III and StuG III are available and ready to go. We could have a German tank vs. German tank action!

It would be entertaining but the Blackshirt loyalty issue comes up again plus the problems with maintenance, spare parts and working out who's who when you actually get in a fight; many of the same reasons the Germans rarely used captured T-34s against the Red Army. The Italians might still get use out of the turrets as pillboxes and the chasis as tractors
 
In una fede, in un valore, in un amore


In una fede, in un valore, in un amore


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The news the Italians had been praying for arrived the following day. After lengthy discussions, disagreements and miscommunications between London, Tunis and Washington the Allies had agreed on an armistice which guaranteed the arrival of Allied troops on the Italian mainland.

The Armistice of Madrid (often derided as the Hoare-Grandi Pact) recognised Caviglia’s regime as a co-belligerent and the legal government of Italy. It would not be the sole authority with Allied regional administrators being granted wide-ranging power over policy; however this was considered a small sacrifice for the regime to receive the legitimacy it had been desperate to gain.

The American Fifth Army under General Mark Clark made preparations to set sail from North Africa to land in Naples. Elements of the US 82nd Airborne Division started arriving at Ciampino Airport the following day much more smoothly than their Fallschirmjager counterparts had managed.

On Corsica the French Resistance accepted the surrender of the Italian Corsican Command whilst the Cremona and Friuli divisions prepared to depart the island for northern Italy. The Co-President of the Free French, General Henri Giraud would arrive on the 29th and declare the first departments of metropolitan France to be liberated.

The British Eighth Army under General Bernard Montgomery would advance up the Sicilian coast from Syracuse to Messina then to Reggio Calabria and the mainland. Conrath’s force would be trapped between these two forces and was expected to surrender when faced with a hopeless situation. The RAF and USAAF began making preparations to take control of the complex of Regia Aeronautica and former-Luftwaffe air bases around Foggia.

These were developments which sparked alarm at Fuhrer Military Headquarters in the Berghof. Hitler’s warnings of Allied armies marching over the Alps appeared to be coming true. With the forces required for the renewed offensive against Italy still en route the German dictator instead ordered an all-out aerial attack against the transport infrastructure connecting northern Italy with the rest of the world.

The Luftwaffe had been slow to adapt to the changing balance in power over the skies of Europe however they had been shepherding their resources for the coming invasion and carried out their mission effectively in their comfortable but outdated role as a tactical air force in one of the few contested regions of Europe where they still momentarily enjoyed aerial supremacy. Italians who barely a fortnight beforehand had celebrated an end to bombing instead found they were now being bombed by both sides.

Despite Italian hopes and German fears the Allied commitment in the eyes of their Supreme Headquarters marked the culmination of the Italian campaign rather than the beginning. The primary aim of the invasion of Sicily, to secure shipping routes through the Mediterranean had been achieved and the hope the operation might knock Italy out of the war had been realised.

Securing airfields in southern Italy would assist with the strategic air campaign against the remainder of the Axis and the capture of Rome would have huge cultural and political significance across the globe however beyond the arguments of the British Prime Minister there was little appetite for a march on the Alps or using southern Italy as a stepping stone towards the Balkans. Privately Allied planners hoped to draw as many German divisions into northern Italy as possible whilst only providing the minimum amount needed to contain them in order to ensure the maximum effort would be concentrated on landing in Northern France in 1944.

It was a decision the Italians were not made party to however the strategic agreements did bring some relief. Italian troops were given the green light to evacuate from the Albanian and Dalmatian coasts, a frustrated Winston Churchill would have to content himself with British seizure of the Greek Ionian and Dodecanese islands.

The evacuations of Corsica and the Balkans were left to the Regia Marina with the Allies being unwilling to spare the shipping or relinquish the merchant ships which they had captured over the course of the war. The Italian Army had always come second in funding and resources to the fleet Mussolini hoped would ensure Italian power and prestige. Now the remnants of said fleet exhausted their energies transporting equipment and troops in a desperate attempt to reinforce the Army in northern Italy before the next German offensive came.

This was especially perilous as the Luftwaffe bombing of northern ports took its toll causing further damage to the ports of Genoa and La Spezia after the insurrections had already left their facilities in disrepair. The Cremona and Friuli divisions were unloaded with great difficulty at nighttime with some ships resorting to using smaller ports and having the troops march to meet their comrades on land.

The situation was easier logistically in the Adriatic but also more desperate with Italian troops fighting rearguard actions in the Bay of Kotor and Valona departing in the evening and arriving at Pola or Venice in the morning to be marched straight to the front. Elements of three divisions, the Arezzo, Bergamo and Lombardia were able to be brought behind Italian lines this way. This represented less than a fifth of Italian troops in the Balkans, most of whom were now trapped behind German lines, however it almost doubled the strength the Italians could bring to bear on the Eastern Alpine Wall.

The remainder were left at the mercy of local populations whose land they had intended to colonise. Unlike in Southern France the Italian occupation in many areas of the Balkans had been brutal with murder and deportation being common tools of the colonial genocide which they waged. By the time the Germans attacked Italian-occupied Slovenia, a tenth of the pre-war population had disappeared.

Despite these atrocities many of the Italian soldiers trapped in the Balkans were welcomed into the ranks of the Albanian, Greek and Yugoslav partisans they had previously sought to destroy. The bounty of trained soldiers, ammunition and equipment on offer made it easy to bury the hatchet

Those who had made it back home were now left to face their own reckoning.


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...a frustrated Winston Churchill would have to content himself with British seizure of the Greek Ionian and Dodecanese islands.
No Dodecanese campaign like OTL's, thankfully. The Germans really needed a victory (anywhere) in the autumn of 1943, and Britain gave them one.
 

Driftless

Donor
Securing airfields in southern Italy would assist with the strategic air campaign against the remainder of the Axis and the capture of Rome would have huge cultural and political significance across the globe however beyond the arguments of the British Prime Minister there was little appetite for a march on the Alps or using southern Italy as a stepping stone towards the Balkans. Privately Allied planners hoped to draw as many German divisions into northern Italy as possible whilst only providing the minimum amount needed to contain them in order to ensure the maximum effort would be concentrated on landing in Northern France in 1944.

A sharp twist of plans from OTL by both sides, correct?

Given the lukewarm Allied commitment, where are the most likely lines of defense? North of Rome, I'd guess, but how far? The Arno roughly could work - IF the Allies make haste with manpower and weaponry. However, the Arno River as the front line assures the destruction of many cultural icons
 
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It was a decision the Italians were not made party to however the strategic agreements did bring some relief. Italian troops were given the green light to evacuate from the Albanian and Dalmatian coasts, a frustrated Winston Churchill would have to content himself with British seizure of the Greek Ionian and Dodecanese islands.

Wonder if this will impact post-War Greece at all. Italians occupied most of the country IOTL until the obvious, wonder how a different withdrawal goes.

No Dodecanese campaign like OTL's, thankfully. The Germans really needed a victory (anywhere) in the autumn of 1943, and Britain gave them one.

Huh never heard of this. How did that...

oh oh dear

Screenshot_20240116-181233.png
 

Driftless

Donor
A sidebar to the main thrust of this timeline: what is happening with POWs Gen. Sir Richard O'Connor, Gen. Phillip Neame, and Gen Michael Gambier-Parry? OTL, they were involved in a successful escape following the OTL Italian withdrawl from the war.
 
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